Static replications with traffic light options

It is well known that sufficiently regular, one-dimensional payoff functions have an explicit static hedge by bonds, forward contracts, and options in a continuum of strikes. An easy and natural extension of the corresponding representation leads to static hedges based on the same instruments along with traffic light options, which have recently been introduced in the market. It is well known that the second strike derivative of non-discounted prices of vanilla options is related to the risk-neutral density of the underlying asset price in the corresponding absolutely continuous settings. Similar statements hold for traffic light options in sufficiently regular, bivariate settings.

Jatropha mahafalensis for rural energy supply in south-western Madagascar?

In many parts of the eastern African region wood-based fuels will remain dominant sources of energy in coming decades. Pressure on forests, especially in semi-arid areas will therefore continue increasing. In this context, the role of liquid biofuels as substitutes for firewood and charcoal, to help reducing pressure on woody biomass and contributing to a better energy security of rural communities, has remained controversial among researchers and practitioners. At household level, the economic and technical feasibility of straight vegetable oil (SVO) was assessed mainly on Jatropha curcas, with unpersuasive results. So far nothing is known about the suitability as an energy carrier of Jatropha mahafalensis Jum. & H. Perrier, the only endemic representative of the Jatropha genus in Madagascar. This paper explores the potential of this plant as a biofuel feedstock in the agro-pastoral area of Soalara, in the semi-arid south-western part of Madagascar. Only hedge-based production was considered to rule out competition over land with food crops. Yield data, the length of currently existing hedges and energy consumption patterns of households were used to assess the quantitative potential and economic viability of J. mahafalensis SVO for lighting and cooking. Tests were conducted with cooking and lighting devices to assess their technical suitability at household level. The paper concludes that J. mahafalensis hedges have some potential to replace paraffin for lighting (though without much economic benefit for the concerned households), but not to replace charcoal or firewood for cooking. The paper recommends that rural energy strategies in similar contexts do not focus only on substituting current fuels with SVO, but should also take into consideration other alternatives. In the case of cooking, there seems to be substantially more potential in increasing the efficiency of current fuel production and consumption technologies (kilns and stoves); and in the case of lighting, solutions based on SVO need to be compared against other options such as portable solar devices.

Determinants and Effects of Maturity Mismatches in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data

Despite the extensive work on currency mismatches, research on the determinants and effects of maturity mismatches is scarce. In this paper I show that emerging market maturity mismatches are negatively affected by capital inflows and price volatilities. Furthermore, I find that banks with low maturity mismatches are more profitable during crisis periods but less profitable otherwise. The later result implies that banks face a tradeoff between higher returns and risk, hence channeling short term capital into long term loans is caused by cronyism and implicit guarantees rather than the depth of the financial market. The positive relationship between maturity mismatches and price volatility, on the other hand, shows that the banks of countries with high exchange rate and interest rate volatilities can not, or choose not to hedge themselves. These results follow from a panel regression on a data set I constructed by merging bank level data with aggregate data. This is advantageous over traditional studies which focus only on aggregate data.

Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Agents, Incomplete Markets and Trading Constraints

The consumption capital asset pricing model is the standard economic model used to capture stock market behavior. However, empirical tests have pointed out to its inability to account quantitatively for the high average rate of return and volatility of stocks over time for plausible parameter values. Recent research has suggested that the consumption of stockholders is more strongly correlated with the performance of the stock market than the consumption of non-stockholders. We model two types of agents, non-stockholders with standard preferences and stock holders with preferences that incorporate elements of the prospect theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). In addition to consumption, stockholders consider fluctuations in their financial wealth explicitly when making decisions. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to calibrate the labor income processes of the two types of agents. Each agent faces idiosyncratic shocks to his labor income as well as aggregate shocks to the per-share dividend but markets are incomplete and agents cannot hedge consumption risks completely. In addition, consumers face both borrowing and short-sale constraints. Our results show that in equilibrium, agents hold different portfolios. Our model is able to generate a time-varying risk premium of about 5.5% while maintaining a low risk free rate, thus suggesting a plausible explanation for the equity premium puzzle reported by Mehra and Prescott (1985).

Sum Insured Determination for Cereal, Citrus and Vineyards in the Spanish Agricultural Insurance System.

In general, insurance is a form of risk management used to hedge against a contingent loss. The conventional definition is the equitable transfer of a risk of loss from one entity to another in exchange for a premium or a guaranteed and quantifiable small loss to prevent a large and possibly devastating loss being agricultural insurance a special line of property insurance. Agriculture insurance, as actually are designed in the Spanish scenario, were established in 1978. At the macroeconomic insurance studies scale, it is necessary to know a basic element for the insurance actuarial components: sum insured. When a new risk assessment has to be evaluated in the insurance framework, it is essential to determinate venture capital in the total Spanish agriculture. In this study, three different crops (cereal, citrus and vineyards) cases are showed to determinate sum insured as they are representative of the cases found in the Spanish agriculture. Crop sum insured is calculated by the product of crop surface, unit surface production and crop price insured. In the cereal case, winter as spring cereal sowing, represents the highest Spanish crop surface, above to 6 millions of hectares (ha). Meanwhile, the four citrus species (oranges, mandarins, lemons and grapefruits) occupied an extension just over 275.000 ha. On the other hand, vineyard target to wine process shows almost one million of ha in Spain.

Tower of Martín González or castle of La Raya (Soria): territory, history, defense and construction / La torre de Martín González o castillo de La Raya (Soria): territorio, historia, defensa y construcción

Abstract The Tower of Martín González, also known as castle of La Raya, is placed in the actual border between the Spanish provinces of Soria and Zaragoza and in the historical limit between the Crowns of Castile and Aragon: this is the reason for its name. The castle dominates the hedge of the plain-moors that surround the Valley of Nágima River. It is a castle with courtyard and a high tower in the western flank. The paper analyzes the castle in four main levels. All references about the castle are studied to draw a historical narration and to relate with the territory and other fortifications, both Castilian and Aragonese. Despite its advanced state of ruin, it preserves many rests that allow making an analysis of its defensive elements and constructive aspects. Resumen La torre de Martín González, también conocida como el castillo de La Raya, se sitúa en el límite actual entre las provincias de Soria y Zaragoza y en el límite histórico entre las coronas de Castilla y Aragón. Domina el extremo de los páramos que circundan el río Nágima. Es un castillo de tipo torrejón con patio de armas y una torre del homenaje adosada a su flanco occidental. El análisis contempla cuatro niveles fundamentales para el entendimiento de la arquitectura fortificada. La comunicación revisa la documentación existente sobre los elementos históricos que se ponen en relación, mediante el análisis territorial, con el sistema fortificado de frontera. A pesar de su avanzado estado de ruina, conserva restos que permiten realizar una lectura interpretativa de sus elementos defensivos y de sus aspectos constructivos.

Creating local bibliographic databases: new tools for evidence-based health care*

The Internet has created new opportunities for librarians to present literature search results to clinicians. In order to take full advantage of these opportunities, libraries need to create locally maintained bibliographic databases. A simple method of creating a local bibliographic database and publishing it on the Web is described. The method uses off-the-shelf software and requires minimal programming. A hedge search strategy for outcome studies of clinical process interventions is created, and Ovid is used to search MEDLINE. The search results are saved and imported into EndNote libraries. The citations are modified, exported to a Microsoft Access database, and published on the Web. Clinicians can use a Web browser to search the database. The bibliographic database contains 13,803 MEDLINE citations of outcome studies. Most searches take between four and ten seconds and retrieve between ten and 100 citations. The entire cost of the software is under $900. Locally maintained bibliographic databases can be created easily and inexpensively. They significantly extend the evidence-based health care services that libraries can offer to clinicians.

VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Testing co-volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances

There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The paper tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices.

Risco de mercado na comercialização de energia elétrica: uma análise estruturada com foco no ambiente de contratação livre - ACL.

A motivação para o desenvolvimento desse trabalho surge em um momento em que se verifica uma participação cada vez mais significativa das fontes energéticas renováveis não convencionais no País. Não obstante, o cenário de evolução evidencia que o arcabouço regulatório e as regras de mercado não acompanharam as especificidades inerentes à exploração dessas fontes. Assim, para que se mantenha adequado ritmo de inserção na matriz energética, devem ser buscadas opções para que fontes alternativas sejam cada vez mais competitivas na atual configuração do mercado energético. A contribuição dessa pesquisa, portanto, centra-se na análise dos riscos de mercado incorridos por esses geradores de fontes intermitentes de energia ao comercializarem energia no ambiente de contratação livre. Nessa perspectiva, a Dissertação foi desenvolvida abordando tipos de geração de energia e suas características técnicas e econômicas, legislação do setor elétrico, regras de comercialização, balanço energético do sistema, formação de preços no mercado de curto prazo e precificação de contratos no ACL, diferença de preços entre submercados, requisitos de flexibilidade e sazonalidade nos contratos de venda a consumidores livres e seu impacto na precificação de contratos, identificação de comportamento energético complementar para mitigação de riscos de mercado entre fontes renováveis e rebatimento na formulação de mecanismo de hedge, análise de portfólio de contratos e estratégia ótima de contratação de energia para agentes geradores atuando no ACL. Como resposta ao desafio de equacionar o impasse surgido na comercialização de fontes de produção sazonal, propõe-se um modelo para definir estratégias de contratação para agentes geradores e comercializadores a partir da complementação energética entre diferentes tipos de fontes, de forma a maximizar os ganhos de comercialização para um risco estabelecido. Busca-se a composição ideal dessas fontes na carteira de um comercializador para minimizar o risco de exposição à volatilidade dos preços do mercado de curto prazo. Isso é possível em virtude das compensações energéticas feitas entre as diferentes fontes em um portfólio combinado, mitigando a receita em risco decorrente das variações que existem nos preços de curto prazo e na produção energética. De forma complementar, estruturou-se um modelo de negócio no qual uma empresa detentora de ativos de geração hidrelétrica compra os direitos de produção de uma eólica e/ou biomassa para incorporar ao seu portfólio e vender como contrato por quantidade. Determinou-se o volume de energia a ser comprado de cada fonte, o preço, a estratégia mais indicada de contratação e a mitigação de fatores de risco contemplados nos contratos de venda, buscando maximizar os ganhos de comercialização condicionada a critérios de risco pré-fixados.

Memorandum Concerning the Holyoke Bowl, 1904 June 14

One-page typed document reflecting the donation of the Holyoke Caudle Cup by Charlotte A. Hedge in 1903. Provenance information is also included. There is a handwritten note at the bottom of the page regarding the cup’s inclusion in an exhibition catalog published by the Boston Museum of Fine Arts.

The Financialization of Food: An Inquiry into the 2008-2011 Food Price Spikes

This dissertation investigates the question: has financial speculation contributed to global food price volatility since the mid 2000s? I problematize the mainstream academic literature on the 2008-2011 food price spikes as being dominated by neoclassical economic perspectives and offer new conceptual and empirical insights into the relationship between financial speculation and food. Presented in three journal style manuscripts, manuscript one uses circuits of capital to conceptualize the link between financial speculators in the global north and populations in the global south. Manuscript two argues that what makes commodity index speculation (aka ‘index funds’ or index swaps) novel is that it provides institutional investors with what Clapp (2014) calls “financial distance” from the biopolitical implications of food speculation. Finally, manuscript three combines Gramsci’s concepts of hegemony and ‘the intellectual’ with the concept of performativity to investigate the ideological role that public intellectuals and the rhetorical actor the market play in the proliferation and governance of commodity index speculation. The first two manuscripts take an empirically mixed method approach by combining regression analysis with discourse analysis, while the third relies on interview data and discourse analysis. The findings show that financial speculation by index swap dealers and hedge funds did indeed significantly contribute to the price volatility of food commodities between June 2006 and December 2014. The results from the interview data affirm these findings. The discourse analysis of the interview data shows that public intellectuals and rhetorical characters such as ‘the market’ play powerful roles in shaping how food speculation is promoted, regulated and normalized. The significance of the findings is three-fold. First, the empirical findings show that a link does exist between financial speculation and food price volatility. Second, the findings indicate that the post-2008 CFTC and the Dodd-Frank reforms are unlikely to reduce financial speculation or the price volatility that it causes. Third, the findings suggest that institutional investors (such as pension funds) should think critically about how they use commodity index speculation as a way of generating financial earnings.

The cloud kingdom /

Publisher's advertisement on p. [2-3] at end.

Elements of logick : or, A summary of the general principles and different modes of reasoning.

Mode of access: Internet.