COMPARING RAINFALL INTENSITY DURATION RELATIONSHIPS FOR SITES OF THE STATE OF SAO PAULO

Rainfall intensity durations relationships are extremely important in the design of systems for mitigating runoff losses. The objective of this work was to compare rainfall depths generated by the PLUVIO 2.1 software, with depths from the standard intensity duration curves developed by MARTINEZ & MAGNI (1999). It was compared rainfall intensities of 10, 20, 30, 60, 120 and 1440 minute durations for 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 year return periods for 30 sites in the state of Sao Paulo. The results showed that PLUVIO was effective, except in predicting the 24 hours rainfall from 100 year return period events in four locations in the central and eastern regions of the state.

Identification and characterization of drought/wet events homogeneous environments based on regional climate simulations

The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goias State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

Aerial Rivers and Lakes: Looking at Large-Scale Moisture Transport and Its Relation to Amazonia and to Subtropical Rainfall in South America

This is an observational study of the large-scale moisture transport over South America, with some analyses on its relation to subtropical rainfall. The concept of aerial rivers is proposed as a framework: it is an analogy between the main pathways of moisture flow in the atmosphere and surface rivers. Opposite to surface rivers, aerial rivers gain (lose) water through evaporation (precipitation). The magnitude of the vertically integrated moisture transport is discharge, and precipitable water is like the mass of the liquid column-multiplied by an equivalent speed it gives discharge. Trade wind flow into Amazonia, and the north/northwesterly flow to the subtropics, east of the Andes, are aerial rivers. Aerial lakes are the sections of a moisture pathway where the flow slows down and broadens, because of diffluence, and becomes deeper, with higher precipitable water. This is the case over Amazonia, downstream of the trade wind confluence. In the dry season, moisture from the aerial lake is transported northeastward, but weaker flow over southern Amazonia heads southward toward the subtropics. Southern Amazonia appears as a source of moisture to this flow. Aerial river discharge to the subtropics is comparable to that of the Amazon River. The variations of the amount of moisture coming from Amazonia have an important effect over the variability of discharge. Correlations between the flow from Amazonia and subtropical rainfall are not strong. However, some months within the set of dry seasons observed showed a strong increase (decrease) occurring together with an important increase (decrease) in subtropical rainfall.

Can the red palm mite threaten the Amazon vegetation?

The red palm mite Raoiella indica Hirst (Tenuipalpidae) was first reported in the New World in 2004, dispersing quickly and widely while adopting new plant species as hosts. Since then, it has caused severe damage in this region, especially to coconut (Cocos nucifera L.). It was first found in Brazil in 2009, in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima. In the present study, native and introduced plants were sampled between March 2010 and February 2011 in sites of the 15 Roraima municipalities, to estimate its distribution and the associated mite fauna. In addition, monthly samples were taken from a coconut plantation in Mucajai throughout the same period, for an initial appraisal of the levels R. indica could reach. It was found in 10 municipalities, on 19 plant species of four families. Six species are reported for the first time as hosts. Among the associated predators, 89.1% were Phytoseiidae, most commonly Amblyseius largoensis (Muma), Iphiseiodes zuluagai Denmark & Muma and Euseius concordis (Chant). The highest densities of R. indica, 1.5 and 0.35 mites/cm2 of leaflet (approx total of 331 and 77 mites/leaflet), were reached respectively in March 2010 and February 2011. The highest density of phytoseiids on coconut (0.009 mites/cm2 or about 2 mites/leaflet) was reached in November 2010. The average densities of R. indica recorded for Roraima were comparable to those reported for countries in which the mite is reportedly economically damaging. The dispersal of R. indica through the Amazon forest may result in damage to cultivated and native palms, and plants of other families, if the projected increase in both the frequency and the severity of drought events occurs. Parts of the Amazon have undergone periods of low rainfall, a condition that appears to favour the biology of this mite. Its eventual arrival to northeastern Brazil may result in heavy economic and ecological losses.

Temporal evolution of emerging contaminants, priority substances and heavy metals most frequently detected in reclaimed water and grounwater in a volcanic aquifer

[EN] The presence of emerging contaminants has been previously described in reclaimed water and groundwater of Gran Canaria (Spain). Despite of the environmental risk associated to irrigation with reclaimed water (R), this practice is necessary considering sustainability of the hydrological cycle in semiarid zones, especially regarding agricultural activity. The aim of this study was: i) to analyse the evolution during two years of contaminants of emerging concern, priority substances (2008/105/EC) and heavy metals in reclaimed water (R) and in a volcanic aquifer in the NE of Gran Canaria where a golf course has been irrigated with R since 1976 and ii) to relate this presence with physicochemical water properties and hydrogeological media. Reclaimed water and groundwater (GW) were monitoring quarterly from July 2009 to September 2011. Sorption and degradation processes in soil account for more compounds being detected in R. Diazinon and chlorfenvinphos were detected always in R and terbuthylazine, terbutryn and diuron at 90% of frequency. Considering all the samples, the most frequent compounds were chlorpyrifos ethyl, fluorene, phenanthrene and pyrene. Although their concentrations were frequently below 50 ngL-1, some contaminants, were occasionally detected at higher concentrations. Chlorpyrifos ethyl and diuron are priority substances detected frequently and at high concentrations so they must be included in monitoring studies. Geology and location seem to be related to the emerging compounds presence due to occasional contamination events (not related to R irrigation) and therefore not to an existence of a dangerous diffuse contamination level. Thus, it is preferable to select wells with less stable chemical water quality, in order to monitor the risk of emerging compounds presence. Considering the relationship between contaminant presence, chemical water quality, seasonal variation, hydrogeological characteristics and wells location we can conclude that chlorpyrifos ethyl and diuron were the most dangerous priority substances in terms of GW quality so they must be included in all of the monitoring studies, at least in Canary Islands.

Pattern recognition analysis on heavy ion reaction data

One of the problems in the analysis of nucleus-nucleus collisions is to get information on the value of the impact parameter b. This work consists in the application of pattern recognition techniques aimed at associating values of b to groups of events. To this end, a support vec- tor machine (SVM) classifier is adopted to analyze multifragmentation reactions. This method allows to backtracing the values of b through a particular multidimensional analysis. The SVM classification con- sists of two main phase. In the first one, known as training phase, the classifier learns to discriminate the events that are generated by two different model:Classical Molecular Dynamics (CMD) and Heavy- Ion Phase-Space Exploration (HIPSE) for the reaction: 58Ni +48 Ca at 25 AMeV. To check the classification of events in the second one, known as test phase, what has been learned is tested on new events generated by the same models. These new results have been com- pared to the ones obtained through others techniques of backtracing the impact parameter. Our tests show that, following this approach, the central collisions and peripheral collisions, for the CMD events, are always better classified with respect to the classification by the others techniques of backtracing. We have finally performed the SVM classification on the experimental data measured by NUCL-EX col- laboration with CHIMERA apparatus for the previous reaction.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Search for long-lived, heavy particles in final states with a muon and multi-track displaced vertex in proton-proton collisions at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Many extensions of the Standard Model posit the existence of heavy particles with long lifetimes. In this Letter, results are presented of a search for events containing one or more such particles, which decay at a significant distance from their production point, using a final state containing charged hadrons and an associated muon. This analysis uses a data sample of proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb(-1) collected in 2011 by the ATLAS detector operating at the Large Hadron Collider. Results are interpreted in the context of R-parity violating supersymmetric scenarios. No events in the signal region are observed and limits are set on the production cross section for pair production of supersymmetric particles, multiplied by the square of the branching fraction for a neutralino to decay to charged hadrons and a muon, based on the scenario where both of the produced supersymmetric particles give rise to neutralinos that decay in this way. However, since the search strategy is based on triggering on and reconstructing the decay products of individual long-lived particles, irrespective of the rest of the event, these limits can easily be reinterpreted in scenarios with different numbers of long-lived particles per event. The limits are presented as a function of neutralino lifetime, and for a range of squark and neutralino masses.

Search for pair production of heavy top-like quarks decaying to a high-pT W boson and a b quark in the lepton plus jets final state at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for production of a heavy up-type quark (t') together with its antiparticle, assuming a significant branching ratio for subsequent decay into a W boson and a b quark. The search is based on 4.7 fb(-1) of pp collisions root s = 7 TeV recorded in 2011 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Data are analyzed in the lepton + jets final state, characterized by a high-transverse-momentum isolated electron or muon, large missing transverse momentum and at least three jets. The analysis strategy relies on the substantial boost of the W bosons in the t'(t') over bar signal when m(t') greater than or similar to 400 GeV. No significant excess of events above the Standard Model expectation is observed and the result of the search is interpreted in the context of fourth-generation and vector-like quark models. Under the assumption of a branching ratio BR(t' -> W b) = I, a fourth-generation t' quark with mass lower than 656 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level. In addition, in light of the recent discovery of a new boson of mass similar to 126 GeV at the LHC, upper limits are derived in the two-dimensional plane of BR(t' -> Wb) versus BR(t' -> Ht), where H is the Standard Model Higgs boson, for vector-like quarks of various masses.

Search for a multi-Higgs-boson cascade in W(+)W(-)b(b)over-bar events with the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

A search is presented for new particles in an extension to the Standard Model that includes a heavy Higgs boson (H-0), an intermediate charged Higgs-boson pair (H-+/-), and a light Higgs boson (h(0)). The analysis searches for events involving the production of a single heavy neutral Higgs boson which decays to the charged Higgs boson and a W boson, where the charged Higgs boson subsequently decays into a W boson and the lightest neutral Higgs boson decaying to a bottom-antibottom-quark pair. Such a cascade results in a W-boson pair and a bottom-antibottom-quark pair in the final state. Events with exactly one lepton, missing transverse momentum, and at least four jets are selected from a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb(-1), collected by the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s = 8 TeV at the LHC. The data are found to be consistent with Standard Model predictions, and 95% confidence-level upper limits are set on the product of cross section and branching ratio. These limits range from 0.065 to 43 pb as a function of H-0 and H-+/- masses, with m(h)o fixed at 125 GeV.

Vascular Plants and Biocrusts Modulate How Abiotic Factors Affect Wetting and Drying Events in Drylands

Understanding how organisms control soil water dynamics is a major research goal in dryland ecology. Although previous studies have mostly focused on the role of vascular plants on the hydrological cycle of drylands, recent studies highlight the importance of biological soil crusts formed by lichens, mosses, and cyanobacteria (biocrusts) as a major player in this cycle. We used data from a 6.5-year study to evaluate how multiple abiotic (rainfall characteristics, temperature, and initial soil moisture) and biotic (vascular plants and biocrusts) factors interact to determine wetting and drying processes in a semi-arid grassland from Central Spain. We found that the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa and biocrusts with medium cover (25–75%) enhanced water gain and slowed drying compared with bare ground areas (BSCl). Well-developed biocrusts (>75% cover) gained more water, but lost it faster than BSCl microsites. The grass Stipa tenacissima reduced water gain due to rainfall interception, but increased soil moisture retention compared to BSCl microsites. Biotic modulation of water dynamics was the result of different mechanisms acting in tandem and often in opposite directions. For instance, biocrusts promoted an exponential behavior during the first stage of the drying curve, but reduced the importance of soil characteristics that accentuate drying rates. Biocrust-dominated microsites gained a similar amount of water than vascular plants, although they lost it faster than vascular plants during dry periods. Our results emphasize the importance of biocrusts for water dynamics in drylands, and illustrate the potential mechanisms behind their effects. They will help to further advance theoretical and modeling efforts on the hydrology of drylands and their response to ongoing climate change.

Search for pair and single production of new heavy quarks that decay to a ℤ boson and a third-generation quark in pp collisions at √ s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for the production of new heavy quarks that decay to a Z boson and a third-generation Standard Model quark. In the case of a new charge +2/3 quark (T), the decay targeted is T → Zt, while the decay targeted for a new charge −1/3 quark (B) is B → Zb. The search is performed with a dataset corresponding to 20.3 fb−1 of pp collisions at √ s = 8TeV recorded in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Selected events contain a high transverse momentum Z boson candidate reconstructed from a pair of oppositely charged same-flavor leptons (electrons or muons), and are analyzed in two channels defined by the absence or presence of a third lepton. Hadronic jets, in particular those with properties consistent with the decay of a b-hadron, are also required to be present in selected events. Different requirements are made on the jet activity in the event in order to enhance the sensitivity to either heavy quark pair production mediated by the strong interaction, or single production mediated by the electroweak interaction. No significant excess of events above the Standard Model expectation is observed, and lower limits are derived on the mass of vector-like T and B quarks under various branching ratio hypotheses, as well as upper limits on the agnitude of electroweak coupling parameters.

Search for supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons in √s = 8 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

Results from a search for supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons including electrons, muons and taus are presented. The analysis uses a data sample corresponding to 20.3  fb −1 of proton-proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider at s √ =8  TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector. Signal regions are designed to target supersymmetric scenarios that can be either enriched in or depleted of events involving the production of a Z boson. No significant deviations are observed in data from standard model predictions and results are used to set upper limits on the event yields from processes beyond the standard model. Exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level on the masses of relevant supersymmetric particles are obtained. In R -parity-violating simplified models with decays of the lightest supersymmetric particle to electrons and muons, limits of 1350 and 750 GeV are placed on gluino and chargino masses, respectively. In R -parity-conserving simplified models with heavy neutralinos decaying to a massless lightest supersymmetric particle, heavy neutralino masses up to 620 GeV are excluded. Limits are also placed on other supersymmetric scenarios.

Study of heavy-flavor quarks produced in association with top-quark pairs at s √ =7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

Using a sample of dilepton top-quark pair (tt ¯ ) candidate events, a study is performed of the production of top-quark pairs together with heavy-flavor (HF) quarks, the sum of tt ¯ +b+X and tt ¯ +c+X , collectively referred to as tt ¯  + HF . The data set used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.7  fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The presence of additional HF (b or c ) quarks in the tt ¯ sample is inferred by looking for events with at least three b -tagged jets, where two are attributed to the b quarks from the tt ¯ decays and the third to additional HF production. The dominant background to tt ¯  + HF in this sample is tt ¯ +jet events in which a light-flavor jet is misidentified as a heavy-flavor jet. To determine the heavy- and light-flavor content of the additional b -tagged jets, a fit to the vertex mass distribution of b -tagged jets in the sample is performed. The result of the fit shows that 79 ± 14 (stat) ± 22 (syst) of the 105 selected extra b -tagged jets originate from HF quarks, 3 standard deviations away from the hypothesis of zero tt ¯  + HF production. The result for extra HF production is quoted as a ratio (R HF ) of the cross section for tt ¯  + HF production to the cross section for tt ¯ production with at least one additional jet. Both cross sections are measured in a fiducial kinematic region within the ATLAS acceptance. R HF is measured to be [6.2±1.1(stat)±1.8(syst)]% for jets with p T >25  GeV and |η|<2.5 , in agreement with the expectations from Monte Carlo generators.

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.