Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Accuracy of National Body Fat Cutoff Levels in the Prediction of Elevated Blood Pressure among Brazilian Male Adolescents

Objective: To assess viability of the development of percentage body fat cutoffs based on blood pressure values in Brazilian adolescents.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with a sample of 358 male subjects from 8 to 18 years old. Blood pressure was measured by the oscilometric method, and body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA).Results: For the identification of elevated blood pressure, these nationally developed body fat cutoffs presented relative accuracy. The cutoffs were significantly associated with elevated blood pressure [odds ratio = 5.91 (95% confidence interval: 3.54-9.86)].Conclusions: Development of national body fat cutoffs is viable, because presence of high accuracy is an indication of elevated blood pressure.

Step Counting and Energy Expenditure Estimation in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Healthy Elderly: Accuracy of 2 Motion Sensors

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Impact on Geographic Location Accuracy due to Different Satellite Orbit Ephemerides

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Accuracy of six minute walk test, stair test and spirometry using maximal oxygen uptake as gold standard

OBJETIVO: Determinar a acurácia das variáveis: tempo de escada (tTE), potência de escada (PTE), teste de caminhada (TC6) e volume expiratório forçado (VEF1) utilizando o consumo máximo de oxigênio (VO2máx) como padrão-ouro. MÉTODOS: Os testes foram realizados em 51 pacientes. O VEF1 foi obtido através da espirometria. O TC6 foi realizado em corredor plano de 120m. O TE foi realizado em escada de 6 lances obtendo-se tTE e PTE. O VO2máx foi obtido por ergoespirometria, utilizando o protocolo de Balke. Foram calculados a correlação linear de Pearson (r) e os valores de p, entre VO2máx e variáveis. Para o cálculo da acurácia, foram obtidos os pontos de corte, através da curva característica operacional (ROC). A estatística Kappa (k) foi utilizada para cálculo da concordância. RESULTADOS: Obteve-se as acurácias: tTE - 86%, TC6 - 80%, PTE - 71%, VEF1(L) - 67%, VEF1% - 63%. Para o tTE e TC6 combinados em paralelo, obteve-se sensibilidade de 93,5% e em série, especificidade de 96,4%. CONCLUSÃO: O tTE foi a variável que apresentou a melhor acurácia. Quando combinados o tTE e TC6 podem ter especificidade e sensibilidade próxima de 100%. Estes testes deveriam ser mais usados rotineiramente, especialmente quando a ergoespirometria para a medida de VO2máx não é disponível.

Accuracy of Tc-99m-sestamibi scintimammography for breast cancer diagnosis

Scintimammography using Tc-99m-sestamibi is a noninvasive and painless diagnostic imaging method that is used to detect breast cancer when mammography is inconclusive Because of the advantages of labeling v '7,ith Tc-99m-sestamibi and its high efficiency in detecting carcinomas, it is the most widespread agent for this purpose Its accumulation in the tumor has multifactorial causes and does not depend on the presence of architectural distortion or local or diffuse density variation in the breast The objective of tfiis study was to evaluate the accuracy of scintimammography 1 for detecting breast cancer One hundred and fifty-seven patients presenting 158 palpable and non-palpable breast nodules were evaluated Three patients were male and 154 were female, aged between 14 and 81 years All patients underwent scintimammography, and the nodule was subjected i to cytological or histological study, i e, the gold standard for diagnosing cancer One hundred and eleven malignant and 47 benign nodules were detected, with predominance of ductal carcinomas (n=94) and fibroadenoma/fibrocysiic condition (n=11/n=11), respectively The mean size was 3 11 cm (7-10 cm) among the malignant nodules and 2 07 cm among the benign nodules (0 5-10 cm) The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were 89, 89, 95, 78 and 89%, respectively Analysis on the histological types showed that the technique was more effective on tumors that were more aggressive, such as ductal carcinoma In this study, Tc-99m-sestamibi scintim immography was shown to be an important tool for diagnosing breast cancer when mammography was inconclusive

Accuracy of fetal gender determination in maternal plasma at 5 and 6 weeks of pregnancy

Objective To assess the viability of the early diagnosis of fetal gender in material plasma before 7 weeks of pregnancy by real-time polymerase chain reaction (real-time PCR), starting at 5 weeks of pregnancy.Method peripheral blood was collected from pregnant women, starting at 5 weeks of gestation. After centrifugation, plasma was separated for fetal DNA extraction. DNA was analyzed by quantitative real-time PCR for two genomic regions, one on the Y chromosome (DYS-14) and the other shared by both sexes (beta-globin), by the TaqMan Minor Groove Binder (MGB) probe assay. The results of the examinations were compared to fetal gender determined after delivery.Results A total of 79 examinations of fetal DNA in maternal plasma were performed for 52 pregnant women. Accuracy according to gestational age was 92.6% (25 of 27 cases) at 5 weeks, and 95.6% (22 of 23 cases) at 6 weeks. These results also demonstrate that fetal DNA is present at low concentrations in maternal plasma at 5 weeks (8.5 genome equivalents (GE)/mL) and 6 weeks (34.1 GE/mL) of pregnancy.Conclusion Quantitative real-time PCR and TaqMan MGB probes specific for the detection of fetal gender in maternal plasma starting at 5 weeks of gestation have good sensitivity and excellent specificity. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accuracy of routine diagnostic tests used in paracoccidioidomycosis patients at a university hospital

The identification of appropriate laboratory measures to confirm clinical hypotheses is important in routine paracoccidioidomycosis medical care. The clinical records and laboratory reports of 401 paracoccidioidomycosis patients attended at the Tropical Diseases Area, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, from 1974 to 2008 were reviewed. Direct mycological (DM), cell block (CB), histopathological (HP), and double immunodiffusion (DID) tests were evaluated before treatment. Typical Paracoccidioides brasiliensis yeast forms were observed in clinical specimens of 86% of the patients, but 14% were detected only by serological test. DM of 51 different tissue specimens produced 74.5% sensitivity, and 62.5% sensitivity was observed in 112 sputum samples. CB in 483 sputum samples generated 55.3% sensitivity. HP performed in 239 samples from different tissues revealed 96.7% sensitivity. Serology carried out in 351 patients and 200 healthy controls provided 90.0% sensitivity, 100.0% specificity, 100.0% positive predictive value, 85.1% negative predictive value and 93.6% accuracy. Comparisons of laboratory measurements performed in the same patient showed that sensitivity decreases from HP to DID to CB and DM, with the last two assays providing similar sensitivities. This study demonstrated that P. brasiliensis identification by HP, CB, and/or DM associated with DID is sufficient to establish the laboratorial diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis in practically all cases. (C) 2011 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of sagittal abdominal diameter as predictor of abdominal fat among Brazilian adults: a comparation with waist circumference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of Impression Accuracy for Implant at Various Angulations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)