Real Options: A Tool for Managing Technical Risk in a Mine Plan

NPV is a static measure of project value which does not discriminate between levels of internal and external risk in project valuation. Due to current investment project?s characteristics, a much more complex model is needed: one that includes the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with variables subject to uncertainty (price, costs, exchange rates, grade and tonnage of the deposits, cut off grade, among many others). Few of these variables present any correlation or can be treated uniformly. In this context, Real Option Valuation (ROV) arose more than a decade ago, as a mainly theoretical model with the potential for simultaneous calculation of the risk associated with such variables. This paper reviews the literature regarding the application of Real Options Valuation in mining, noting the prior focus on external risks, and presents a case study where ROV is applied to quantify risk associated to mine planning.

TECTONICS OF THE HELVETIC NAPPE SYSTEM (W SWITZERLAND): CONTROL OF STRAIN LOCALIZATION AND BASEMENT-COVER DEFORMATION. Insights from models based on continuum mechanics

The Helvetic nappe system in Western Switzerland is a stack of fold nappes and thrust sheets em-placed at low grade metamorphism. Fold nappes and thrust sheets are also some of the most common features in orogens. Fold nappes are kilometer scaled recumbent folds which feature a weakly deformed normal limb and an intensely deformed overturned limb. Thrust sheets on the other hand are characterized by the absence of overturned limb and can be defined as almost rigid blocks of crust that are displaced sub-horizontally over up to several tens of kilometers. The Morcles and Doldenhom nappe are classic examples of fold nappes and constitute the so-called infra-Helvetic complex in Western and Central Switzerland, respectively. This complex is overridden by thrust sheets such as the Diablerets and Wildhörn nappes in Western Switzerland. One of the most famous example of thrust sheets worldwide is the Glariis thrust sheet in Central Switzerland which features over 35 kilometers of thrusting which are accommodated by a ~1 m thick shear zone. Since the works of the early Alpine geologist such as Heim and Lugeon, the knowledge of these nappes has been steadily refined and today the geometry and kinematics of the Helvetic nappe system is generally agreed upon. However, despite the extensive knowledge we have today of the kinematics of fold nappes and thrust sheets, the mechanical process leading to the emplacement of these nappe is still poorly understood. For a long time geologist were facing the so-called 'mechanical paradox' which arises from the fact that a block of rock several kilometers high and tens of kilometers long (i.e. nappe) would break internally rather than start moving on a low angle plane. Several solutions were proposed to solve this apparent paradox. Certainly the most successful is the theory of critical wedges (e.g. Chappie 1978; Dahlen, 1984). In this theory the orogen is considered as a whole and this change of scale allows thrust sheet like structures to form while being consistent with mechanics. However this theoiy is intricately linked to brittle rheology and fold nappes, which are inherently ductile structures, cannot be created in these models. When considering the problem of nappe emplacement from the perspective of ductile rheology the problem of strain localization arises. The aim of this thesis was to develop and apply models based on continuum mechanics and integrating heat transfer to understand the emplacement of nappes. Models were solved either analytically or numerically. In the first two papers of this thesis we derived a simple model which describes channel flow in a homogeneous material with temperature dependent viscosity. We applied this model to the Morcles fold nappe and to several kilometer-scale shear zones worldwide. In the last paper we zoomed out and studied the tectonics of (i) ductile and (ii) visco-elasto-plastic and temperature dependent wedges. In this last paper we focused on the relationship between basement and cover deformation. We demonstrated that during the compression of a ductile passive margin both fold nappes and thrust sheets can develop and that these apparently different structures constitute two end-members of a single structure (i.e. nappe). The transition from fold nappe to thrust sheet is to first order controlled by the deformation of the basement. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un empilement de nappes de plis et de nappes de charriage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamorphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement défor-mé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Mordes et la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glariis en Suisse centrale se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. Aujourd'hui la géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général. Malgré cela, les processus mécaniques par lesquels ces nappes se sont mises en place restent mal compris. Pendant toute la première moitié du vingtième siècle les géologues les géologues ont été confrontés au «paradoxe mécanique». Celui-ci survient du fait qu'un bloc de roche haut de plusieurs kilomètres et long de plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres (i.e., une nappe) se fracturera de l'intérieur plutôt que de se déplacer sur une surface frictionnelle. Plusieurs solutions ont été proposées pour contourner cet apparent paradoxe. La solution la plus populaire est la théorie des prismes d'accrétion critiques (par exemple Chappie, 1978 ; Dahlen, 1984). Dans le cadre de cette théorie l'orogène est considéré dans son ensemble et ce simple changement d'échelle solutionne le paradoxe mécanique (la fracturation interne de l'orogène correspond aux nappes). Cette théorie est étroitement lié à la rhéologie cassante et par conséquent des nappes de plis ne peuvent pas créer au sein d'un prisme critique. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la méca-nique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous avons dérivé un modèle d'écoulement dans un chenal d'un matériel homogène dont la viscosité dépend de la température. Nous avons appliqué ce modèle à la nappe de Mordes et à plusieurs zone de cisaillement d'échelle kilométrique provenant de différents orogènes a travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons considéré le problème à l'échelle de l'orogène et avons étudié la tectonique de prismes (i) ductiles, et (ii) visco-élasto-plastiques en considérant les transferts de chaleur. Nous avons démontré que durant la compression d'une marge passive ductile, a la fois des nappes de plis et des nappes de charriages peuvent se développer. Nous avons aussi démontré que nappes de plis et de charriages sont deux cas extrêmes d'une même structure (i.e. nappe) La transition entre le développement d'une nappe de pli ou d'une nappe de charriage est contrôlé au premier ordre par la déformation du socle. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un emblement de nappes de plis et de nappes de chaînage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamoiphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement déformé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Morcles and la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glarüs en Suisse centrale est certainement l'exemple de nappe de charriage le plus célèbre au monde. Elle se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. La géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général parmi les géologues. Au contraire les processus physiques par lesquels ces nappes sont mises en place reste mal compris. Les sédiments qui forment les nappes alpines se sont déposés à l'ère secondaire et à l'ère tertiaire sur le socle de la marge européenne qui a été étiré durant l'ouverture de l'océan Téthys. Lors de la fermeture de la Téthys, qui donnera naissance aux Alpes, le socle et les sédiments de la marge européenne ont été déformés pour former les nappes alpines. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la mécanique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous nous sommes intéressés à la localisation de la déformation à l'échelle d'une nappe. Nous avons appliqué le modèle développé à la nappe de Morcles et à plusieurs zones de cisaillement provenant de différents orogènes à travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons étudié la relation entre la déformation du socle et la défonnation des sédiments. Nous avons démontré que nappe de plis et nappes de charriages constituent les cas extrêmes d'un continuum. La transition entre nappe de pli et nappe de charriage est intrinsèquement lié à la déformation du socle sur lequel les sédiments reposent.

Evaluation of Antiproliferative, Anti-Type 2 Diabetes, and Antihypertension Potentials of Ellagitannins from Strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa Duch.) Using In Vitro Models

Strawberries represent the main source of ellagic acid derivatives in the Brazilian diet, corresponding to more than 50% of all phenolic compounds found in the fruit. There is a particular interest in the determination of the ellagic acid content in fruits because of possible chemopreventive benefits. In the present study, the potential health benefits of purified ellagitannins from strawberries were evaluated in relation to the antiproliferative activity and in vitro inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potential management of hyperglycemia and hypertension. Therefore, a comparison among ellagic acid, purified ellagitannins, and a strawberry extract was done to evaluate the possible synergistic effects of phenolics. In relation to the antiproliferative activity, it was observed that ellagic acid had the highest percentage inhibition of cell proliferation. The strawberry extract had lower efficacy in inhibiting the cell proliferation, indicating that in the case of this fruit there is no synergism. Purified ellagitannins had high alpha-amylase and ACE inhibitory activities. However, these compounds had low alpha-glucosidase inhibitory activity. These results suggested that the ellagitannins and ellagic acid have good potential for the management of hyperglycemia and hypertension linked to type 2 diabetes. However, further studies with animal and human models are needed to advance the in vitro assay-based biochemical rationale from this study.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Theory and phenomenology of two-higgs-doublet models

We discuss theoretical and phenomenological aspects of two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the Standard Model. In general, these extensions have scalar mediated flavour changing neutral currents which are strongly constrained by experiment. Various strategies are discussed to control these flavour changing scalar currents and their phenomenological consequences are analysed. In particular, scenarios with natural flavour conservation are investigated, including the so-called type I and type II models as well as lepton-specific and inert models. Type III models are then discussed, where scalar flavour changing neutral currents are present at tree level, but are suppressed by either a specific ansatz for the Yukawa couplings or by the introduction of family symmetries leading to a natural suppression mechanism. We also consider the phenomenology of charged scalars in these models. Next we turn to the role of symmetries in the scalar sector. We discuss the six symmetry-constrained scalar potentials and their extension into the fermion sector. The vacuum structure of the scalar potential is analysed, including a study of the vacuum stability conditions on the potential and the renormalization-group improvement of these conditions is also presented. The stability of the tree level minimum of the scalar potential in connection with electric charge conservation and its behaviour under CP is analysed. The question of CP violation is addressed in detail, including the cases of explicit CP violation and spontaneous CP violation. We present a detailed study of weak basis invariants which are odd under CP. These invariants allow for the possibility of studying the CP properties of any two-Higgs-doublet model in an arbitrary Higgs basis. A careful study of spontaneous CP violation is presented, including an analysis of the conditions which have to be satisfied in order for a vacuum to violate CP. We present minimal models of CP violation where the vacuum phase is sufficient to generate a complex CKM matrix, which is at present a requirement for any realistic model of spontaneous CP violation.

Knowledge management framework based on brain models and human physiology

The life of humans and most living beings depend on sensation and perception for the best assessment of the surrounding world. Sensorial organs acquire a variety of stimuli that are interpreted and integrated in our brain for immediate use or stored in memory for later recall. Among the reasoning aspects, a person has to decide what to do with available information. Emotions are classifiers of collected information, assigning a personal meaning to objects, events and individuals, making part of our own identity. Emotions play a decisive role in cognitive processes as reasoning, decision and memory by assigning relevance to collected information. The access to pervasive computing devices, empowered by the ability to sense and perceive the world, provides new forms of acquiring and integrating information. But prior to data assessment on its usefulness, systems must capture and ensure that data is properly managed for diverse possible goals. Portable and wearable devices are now able to gather and store information, from the environment and from our body, using cloud based services and Internet connections. Systems limitations in handling sensorial data, compared with our sensorial capabilities constitute an identified problem. Another problem is the lack of interoperability between humans and devices, as they do not properly understand human’s emotional states and human needs. Addressing those problems is a motivation for the present research work. The mission hereby assumed is to include sensorial and physiological data into a Framework that will be able to manage collected data towards human cognitive functions, supported by a new data model. By learning from selected human functional and behavioural models and reasoning over collected data, the Framework aims at providing evaluation on a person’s emotional state, for empowering human centric applications, along with the capability of storing episodic information on a person’s life with physiologic indicators on emotional states to be used by new generation applications.

Cultural journalism in a digital environment : new models, practices and possibilities

Both culture coverage and digital journalism are contemporary phenomena that have undergone several transformations within a short period of time. Whenever the media enters a period of uncertainty such as the present one, there is an attempt to innovate in order to seek sustainability, skip the crisis or find a new public. This indicates that there are new trends to be understood and explored, i.e., how are media innovating in a digital environment? Not only does the professional debate about the future of journalism justify the need to explore the issue, but so do the academic approaches to cultural journalism. However, none of the studies so far have considered innovation as a motto or driver and tried to explain how the media are covering culture, achieving sustainability and engaging with the readers in a digital environment. This research examines how European media which specialize in culture or have an important cultural section are innovating in a digital environment. Specifically, we see how these innovation strategies are being taken in relation to the approach to culture and dominant cultural areas, editorial models, the use of digital tools for telling stories, overall brand positioning and extensions, engagement with the public and business models. We conducted a mixed methods study combining case studies of four media projects, which integrates qualitative web features and content analysis, with quantitative web content analysis. Two major general-interest journalistic brands which started as physical newspapers – The Guardian (London, UK) and Público (Lisbon, Portugal) – a magazine specialized in international affairs, culture and design – Monocle (London, UK) – and a native digital media project that was launched by a cultural organization – Notodo, by La Fábrica – were the four case studies chosen. Findings suggest, on one hand, that we are witnessing a paradigm shift in culture coverage in a digital environment, challenging traditional boundaries related to cultural themes and scope, angles, genres, content format and delivery, engagement and business models. Innovation in the four case studies lies especially along the product dimensions (format and content), brand positioning and process (business model and ways to engage with users). On the other hand, there are still perennial values that are crucial to innovation and sustainability, such as commitment to journalism, consistency (to the reader, to brand extensions and to the advertiser), intelligent differentiation and the capability of knowing what innovation means and how it can be applied, since this thesis also confirms that one formula doesn´t suit all. Changing minds, exceeding cultural inertia and optimizing the memory of the websites, looking at them as living, organic bodies, which continuously interact with the readers in many different ways, and not as a closed collection of articles, are still the main challenges for some media.

Relationship between Neutrophil-To-Lymphocyte Ratio and Electrocardiographic Ischemia Grade in STEMI

Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be a good predictor of future adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Changes in the QRS terminal portion have also been associated with adverse outcomes following STEMI. Objective: To investigate the relationship between ECG ischemia grade and NLR in patients presenting with STEMI, in order to determine additional conventional risk factors for early risk stratification. Methods: Patients with STEMI were investigated. The grade of ischemia was analyzed from the ECG performed on admission. White blood cells and subtypes were measured as part of the automated complete blood count (CBC) analysis. Patients were classified into two groups according to the ischemia grade presented on the admission ECG, as grade 2 ischemia (G2I) and grade 3 ischemia (G3I). Results: Patients with G3I had significantly lower mean left ventricular ejection fraction than those in G2I (44.58 ± 7.23 vs. 48.44 ± 7.61, p = 0.001). As expected, in-hospital mortality rate increased proportionally with the increase in ischemia grade (p = 0.036). There were significant differences in percentage of lymphocytes (p = 0.010) and percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.004), and therefore, NLR was significantly different between G2I and G3I patients (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only NLR was the independent variable with a significant effect on ECG ischemia grade (odds ratio = 1.254, 95% confidence interval 1.120–1.403, p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found an association between G3I and elevated NLR in patients with STEMI. We believe that such an association might provide an additional prognostic value for risk stratification in patients with STEMI when combined with standardized risk scores.

Melt topology and chemistry during partial melting in contact aureoles : an experimental study and field example

This study was initiated to investigate partial melting within the high-grade metamorphic rocks beneath the Little Cottonwood contact aureole (Utah, USA), in order to understand the melt generation, melt migration, and geometry of initial melt distribution on grain scale during crustal anatexis. The emplacement of the Little Cottonwood stock produced a contact aureole in the pelitic host rocks of the Big Cottonwood formation (BC). Metamorphic isogrades in pelitic rocks range form biotite to 2nd sillimanite grade as a function of distance from the contact. Migmatites are restricted to the highest grade and resulted form partial melting of the BC formation rocks. First melt was produced by a combined muscovite/biotite dehydration reaction in the sillimanite + k-feldspar stability field. Melt extraction from the pelites resulted in restites (magnetite + cordierite + alumosilicate ± biotite) surrounded by feldspar enriched quartzite zones. This texture is the result of gradual infiltration of partial melts into the quartzite. Larger, discrete melt accumulation occurred in extensional or transpressional domains such as boudin necks, veins, and ductile shear zones. Melt composition are Si02- rich, crystallized as pegmatites, and apparently were very mobile. They were able to infiltrate the quartzite pervaisivly. These melts are similar in composition to first melts produced in the hydrothermal partial melt experiments at 2kbar between 700 - 800°C on fine grained high metamorphic rocks (andalusite-cordierited-biotite-zone) of the BC formation. The experimental melts are water rich and in disequilibrium with the melting rock. Initial melt composition is heterogeneous for short run duration, reflective a lack of chemical equilibrium between individual melt pools. Rock core scale heterogeneity decreased with time indicating partial homogenization of melt compositions. A simultaneous shift of melt composition to higher silica content with time was observed. The silica content of the melt increased due to local melt/mineral reactions. Melt textures indicate that reactive melt transport is most efficient along grain boundaries rimmed by dissimilar grains. Melt heterogeneity resulted in chemical potential gradients which are major driving forces for initial melt migration and govern melt distribution during initial melting. An additional subject of the thesis is the crystal size distributions of opaque minerals in a fine-grained, high-grade meta-pelite of the Big Cottonwood which were obtained from 3D X-ray tomography (uCT) and 2D thin section analysis. µCT delivers accurate size distributions within a restricted range (~ a factor of 20 in size in a single 3D image), while the absolute number of crystals is difficult to obtain from these sparsely distributed, small crystals on the basis of 2D images. Crystal size distributions obtained from both methods are otherwise similar. - Ce travail de recherche a été entrepris dans le but d'étudier les processus de fusion partielle dans les roches fortement métamorphiques de l'auréole de contact de Little Cottonwood (Utah, USA) et ceci afin de comprendre la génération de liquide de fusion, la migration de ces liquides et la géométrie de la distribution initiale des liquides de fusion à l'échelle du grain durant l'anatexie de la croûte. L'emplacement du petit massif intrusif de Little Cottonwood a produit une auréole de contact dans les roches pélitiques encaissantes appartenant à la Foimation du Big Cottonwood (BC). Les isogrades métamorphiques dans les roches pélitiques varient de l'isograde de la biotite à la deuxième isograde de la sillimanite en fonction de la distance par rapport au massif intrusif. Les migmatites sont restreintes aux zones montrant le plus haut degré métamorphique et résultent de la fusion partielle des roches de la Formation de BC. Le premier liquide de fusion a été produit par la réaction de déshydratation combinée de la muscovite et de la biotite dans le champ de stabilité du feldspath potassique Pt de la sillimanite. L'extraction du liquide de fusion des pélites forme des restites (magnétites + cordiérite + aluminosilicate ± biotite) entourées par des zones de quartzites enrichies en feldspath. Cette texture est le résultat de l'infiltration graduelle du liquide de fusion partielle dans les quartzites. Des accumulations distinctes et plus larges de liquide de fusion ont lieu dans des domaines d'extension ou de transpression tels que les boudins, les veines, et les zones de cisaillement ductile. La composition des liquides de fusion est similaire à celle des liquides pegmatoïdes, et ces liquides sont apparemment très mobiles et capables d'infiltrer les quartzites. Ces liquides de fusion ont la même composition que les premiers liquides produits dans les expériences hydrotheunales de fusion partielle à 2kbar et entre 700-800° C sur les roches finement grenues et hautement métamorphiques (andalousite-cordiérite-biotite zone) de la Formation de BC. Les liquides de fusion obtenus expérimentalement sont riches en eau et sont en déséquilibre avec la roche en fusion. La composition initiale des liquides de fusion est hétérogène pour les expériences de courte durée et reflète l'absence d'équilibre chimique entre les différentes zones d'accumulation des liquides de fusion. L'hétérogénéité à l'échelle du noyau s'estompe avec le temps et témoigne de l'homogénéisation de la composition des liquides de fusion. Par ailleurs, on observe parallèlement un décalage de la composition des liquides vers des compositions plus riches en silice au cours du temps. Le contenu en silice des liquides de fusion évolue vers un liquide pegmatitique en raison des réactions liquides/minéraux. Les textures des liquides de fusion indiquent que le transport des liquides est plus efficace le long des bordures de grains bordés par des grains différents. Aucun changement apparent du volume total n'est visible. L'hétérogénéité des liquides s'accompagne d'un gradient de potentiel chimique qui sert de moteur principal à la migration des liquides et à la distribution des liquides durant la fusion. Un sujet complémentaire de ce travail de thèse réside dans l'étude de la distribution de la taille des cristaux opaques dans les pélites finement grenues et fortement métamorphiques de la Formation de Big Cottonwood. Les distributions de taille ont été obtenues suite à l'analyse d'images 3D acquise par tomographie ainsi que par analyse de lames minces. La microtomographie par rayon X fournit une distribution de taille précise sur une marge restreinte (- un facteur de taille 20 dans une seule image 3D), alors que le nombre absolu de cristaux est difficile à obtenir sur la base d'image 2D en raison de la petite taille et de la faible abondance de ces cristaux. Les distributions de taille obtenues par les deux méthodes sont sinon similaire. Abstact: Chemical differentiation of the primitive Earth was due to melting and separation of melts. Today, melt generation and emplacement is still the dominant process for the growth of the crust. Most granite formation is due to partial melting of the lower crust, followed by transport of magma through the crust to the shallow crust where it is emplaced. Partial melting and melt segregation are essential steps before such a granitic magma can ascent through the crust. The chemistry and physics of partial melting and segregation is complex. Hence detailed studies, in which field observations yield critical information that can be compared to experimental observations, are crucial to the understanding of these fundamental processes that lead and are leading to the chemical stratification of the Earth. The research presented in this thesis is a combined field and experimental study of partial melting of high-grade meta-pelitic rocks of the Little Cottonwood contact aureole (Utah, USA). Contact metamorphic rocks are ideal for textural studies of melt generation, since the relatively short times of the metamorphic event prevents much of the recrystallization which plagues textural studies of lower crustal rocks. The purpose of the study is to characterize melt generation, identify melting reactions, and to constrain melt formation, segregation and migration mechanisms. In parallel an experimental study was undertaken to investigate melt in the high grade meta pelitic rocks, to confirm melt composition, and to compare textures of the partial molten rock cores in the absence of deformation. Results show that a pegmatoidal melt is produced by partial melting of the pelitic rocks. This melt is highly mobile. It is capable of pervasive infiltration of the adjacent quartzite. Infiltration results in rounded quartz grains bordered by a thin feldspar rim. Using computed micro X-ray tomography these melt networks can be imaged. The infiltrated melt leads to rheological weakening and to a decompaction of the solid quartzite. Such decompaction can explain the recent discovery of abundant xenocrysts in many magmas, since it favors the isolation of mineral grains. Pervasive infiltration is apparently strongly influenced by melt viscosity and melt-crystal wetting behavior, both of which depend on the water content of melt and the temperature. In all experiments the first melt is produced on grain boundaries, dominantly by the local minerals. Grain scale heterogeneity of a melting rock leads thus to chemical concentration gradients in the melt, which are the driving force for initial melt migration. Pervasive melt films along grain boundaries leading to an interconnected network are immediately established. The initial chemical heterogeneities in the melt diminish with time. Résumé large public: La différenciation chimique de la Terre primitive est la conséquence de la fusion des roches et de la séparation des liquides qui en résultent. Aujourd'hui, la production de liquide magmatique est toujours le mécanisme dominant pour la croissance de la croûte terrestre. Ainsi la formation de la plupart des granites est un processus qui implique la production de magma par fusion partielle de la croûte inférieure, la migration de ces magmas à travers la croûte et finalement son emplacement dans les niveaux superficielle de la croûte terrestre. Au cours de cette évolution, les processus de fusion partielle et de ségrégation sont des étapes indispensables à l'ascension des granites à travers la croûte. Les conditions physico-chimiques nécessaires à la fusion partielle et à l'extraction de ces liquides sont complexes. C'est pourquoi des études détaillées des processus de fusion partielle sont cruciales pour la compréhension de ces mécanismes fondamentaux responsables de la stratification chimique de la Terre. Parmi ces études, les observations de terrain apportent notamment des informations déterminantes qui peuvent être comparées aux données expérimentales. Le travail de recherche présenté dans ce mémoire de thèse associe études de terrain et données expérimentales sur la fusion partielle des roches pélitiques de haut degré métamorphiques provenant de l'auréole de contact de Little Cottonwood (Utah, USA). Les roches du métamorphisme de contact sont idéales pour l'étude de la folination de liquide de fusion. En effet, la durée relativement courte de ce type d'événement métamorphique prévient en grande partie la recristallisation qui perturbe les études de texture des roches dans la croûte inférieure. Le but de cette étude est de caractériser la génération des liquides de fusion, d'identifier les réactions responsables de la fusion de ces roches et de contraindre la formation de ces liquides et leur mécanisme de ségrégation et de migration. Parallèlement, des travaux expérimentaux ont été entrepris pour reproduire la fusion partielle de ces roches en laboratoire. Cette étude a été effectuée dans le but de confirmer la composition chimique des liquides, et de comparer les textures obtenues en l'absence de déformation. Les résultats montrent qu'un liquide de fusion pegmatoïde est produit par fusion partielle des roches pélitiques. La grande mobilité de ce liquide permet une infiltration pénétrative dans les quarzites. Ces infiltrations se manifestent par des grains de quartz arrondis entourés par une fine bordure de feldspath. L'utilisation de la tomography à rayons X a permis d'obtenir des images de ce réseau de liquide de fusion. L'infiltration de liquide de fusion entraîne un affaiblissement de la rhéologie de la roche ainsi qu'une décompaction des quartzites massifs. Une telle décompaction peut expliquer la découverte récente d'abondants xénocristaux dans beaucoup de magmas, puisque elle favorise l'isolation des minéraux. L'infiltration pénétrative est apparemment fortement influencée par la viscosité du fluide de fusion et le comportement de la tension superficielle entre les cristaux et le liquide, les deux étant dépendant du contenu en eau dans le liquide de fusion et de la température. Dans toutes les expériences, le premier liquide est produit sur les bordures de grains, principalement par les minéraux locaux. L'hétérogénéité à l'échelle des grains d'une roche en fusion conduit donc à un gradient de concentration chimique dans le liquide, qui sert de moteur à l'initiation de la migration du liquide. Des fines couches de liquide de fusion le long de bordures de grains formant un réseau enchevêtré s'établit immédiatement. Les hétérogénéités chimiques initiales dans le liquide s'estompent avec le temps.

Severity of chronic experimental Chagas' heart disease parallels tumour necrosis factor and nitric oxide levels in the serum: models of mild and severe disease

Heart tissue inflammation, progressive fibrosis and electrocardiographic alterations occur in approximately 30% of patients infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, 10-30 years after infection. Further, plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and nitric oxide (NO) are associated with the degree of heart dysfunction in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). Thus, our aim was to establish experimental models that mimic a range of parasitological, pathological and cardiac alterations described in patients with chronic Chagas’ heart disease and evaluate whether heart disease severity was associated with increased TNF and NO levels in the serum. Our results show that C3H/He mice chronically infected with the Colombian T. cruzi strain have more severe cardiac parasitism and inflammation than C57BL/6 mice. In addition, connexin 43 disorganisation and fibronectin deposition in the heart tissue, increased levels of creatine kinase cardiac MB isoenzyme activity in the serum and more severe electrical abnormalities were observed in T. cruzi-infected C3H/He mice compared to C57BL/6 mice. Therefore, T. cruzi-infected C3H/He and C57BL/6 mice represent severe and mild models of CCC, respectively. Moreover, the CCC severity paralleled the TNF and NO levels in the serum. Therefore, these models are appropriate for studying the pathophysiology and biomarkers of CCC progression, as well as for testing therapeutic agents for patients with Chagas’ heart disease.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.