An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

Dieta do ouriço-branco, Tripneustes ventricosus (Lamarck, 1816), no Arquipélago de Fernando de Noronha, PE

Sea urchins are benthic macroinvertebrates that inhabit shallow coastal waters in tropical and temperate zones. Urchins are usually classified as generalists or omnivores as they can adjust their diet according to the food resources available in the environment. Due to the strong grazing pressure they may exert, urchins have an important role in marine ecosystems, occupying different trophic levels and stimulating the intensification of the dynamics of communities where they occur. In 2004, a monitoring program focused on the population dynamics of the white sea urchin, Tripneustes ventricosus, has been initiated in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. At the same time, a surprisingly lack of information on the species biology has been noted, despite their wide geographical distribution and economic importance in many parts of its range. Hence, this work was developed to provide information on the feeding habits of T. ventricosus in the archipelago. Ten specimens were collected between December 2006 and July 2007 at two sites of the archipelago, Air France and Sueste Bay for biometrics and analysis of gut contents. Test diameters ranged from 9.19 cm (± 1.1) to 10.08 cm (± 0.58). Calculated stomach repletion index (IRE) was higher (p <0.05) in the Air France site and also during January and July. The IRE was not correlated to the gonad index. Fifteen different species of algae were detected in a total of 120 stomachs examined: 4 Chlorophytas, 4 Phaeophytas and 6 Rhodophytas. Food diversity (p <0.05) was higher in December 2006 and January 2007. Although several items had a high frequency of occurrence, they were low represented in terms of weight, and consequently, had a low level of relative importance. The brown algae Dictyopteris spp and Dictyota spp, followed by the green algae Caulerpa verticillata accounted for the greatest importance in T. ventricosus diet, comprising about 90% of the consumed items

Thiamethoxam on the histological characteristics of sugarcane young roots

Thiamethoxam is a systemic insecticide from the neonicotinoid group, nitroguanidin family which affects the nicotinic receptor acetyl choline in the insect membrane, wounding the nervous system and causing the death of the insect. It was used with success in the control of initial pests of several crops. It was considered that thiamethoxam has a bioactivator effect, because in the absence of insects promoted increase in vigor, development and productivity of crops. This work was carried out to verify if thiamethoxam causes histological changes in sugarcane roots. In this work, it was used optical microscopy, images arrest, tissue biometrics and statistical analysis, in young roots of sugarcane RB 83 5486 after the treatments with different thiamethoxam concentrations. It was determined changes in histological structure of tissues 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after the treatments, establishing its effects on root plant anatomy. It was verified that thiamethoxam increased root cortex width, increasing the vascular cylinder and the metaxylem vessel elements number in the vascular tissue until 21 days after application.

Impact of maintenance of Macrobrachium rosenbergii de Man, 1879 (Crustacea, Decapoda, Palaemonidae) broodstock on the water used in culture ponds

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Lógica Fuzzy para Controle de pH em um Processo Petrolífero

This work proposes the design, the performance evaluation and a methodology for tuning the initial MFs parameters of output of a function based Takagi-Sugeno-Kang Fuzzy-PI controller to neutralize the pH in a stirred-tank reactor. The controller is designed to perform pH neutralization of industrial plants, mainly in units found in oil refineries where it is strongly required to mitigate uncertainties and nonlinearities. In addition, it adjusts the changes in pH regulating process, avoiding or reducing the need for retuning to maintain the desired performance. Based on the Hammerstein model, the system emulates a real plant that fits the changes in pH neutralization process of avoiding or reducing the need to retune. The controller performance is evaluated by overshoots, stabilization times, indices Integral of the Absolute Error (IAE) and Integral of the Absolute Value of the Error-weighted Time (ITAE), and using a metric developed by that takes into account both the error information and the control signal. The Fuzzy-PI controller is compared with PI and gain schedule PI controllers previously used in the testing plant, whose results can be found in the literature.

DNA bar-coding reveals source and patterns of Thaumastocoris peregrinus invasions in South Africa and South America

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a recently introduced invertebrate pest of non-native Eucalyptus plantations in the Southern Hemisphere. It was first reported from South Africa in 2003 and in Argentina in 2005. Since then, populations have grown explosively and it has attained an almost ubiquitous distribution over several regions in South Africa on 26 Eucalyptus species. Here we address three key questions regarding this invasion, namely whether only one species has been introduced, whether there were single or multiple introductions into South Africa and South America and what the source of the introduction might have been. To answer these questions, bar-coding using mitochondrial DNA (COI) sequence diversity was used to characterise the populations of this insect from Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Uruguay. Analyses revealed three cryptic species in Australia, of which only T. peregrinus is represented in South Africa and South America. Thaumastocoris peregrinus populations contained eight haplotypes, with a pairwise nucleotide distance of 0.2-0.9% from seventeen locations in Australia. Three of these haplotypes are shared with populations in South America and South Africa, but the latter regions do not share haplotypes. These data, together with the current distribution of the haplotypes and the known direction of original spread in these regions, suggest that at least three distinct introductions of the insect occurred in South Africa and South America before 2005. The two most common haplotypes in Sydney, one of which was also found in Brisbane, are shared with the non-native regions. Sydney populations of T. peregrinus, which have regularly reached outbreak levels in recent years, might thus have served as source of these three distinct introductions into other regions of the Southern Hemisphere.

Levels of toxic and essential metals in maternal and umbilical cord blood from selected areas of South Africa-results of a pilot study

This pilot study uses concentrations of metals in maternal and cord blood at delivery, in seven selected geographical areas of South Africa, to determine prenatal environmental exposure to toxic metals. Samples of maternal and cord whole blood were analysed for levels of cadmium, mercury, lead, manganese, cobalt, copper, zinc, arsenic and selenium. Levels of some measured metals differed by site, indicating different environmental pollution levels in the regions selected for the study. Mercury levels were elevated in two coastal populations studied (Atlantic and Indian Ocean sites) with mothers from the Atlantic site having the highest median concentration of 1.78 mu g/L ranging from 0.44 to 8.82 mu g/L, which was found to be highly significant (p < 0.001) when compared to other sites, except the Indian Ocean site. The highest concentration of cadmium was measured in maternal blood from the Atlantic site with a median value of 0.25 mu g/L (range 0.05-0.89 mu g/L), and statistical significance of p < 0.032, when compared to all other sites studied, and p < 0.001 and p < 0.004 when compared to rural and industrial sites respectively, confounding factor for elevated cadmium levels was found to be cigarette smoking. Levels of lead were highest in the urban site, with a median value of 32.9 mu g/L (range 16-81.5 mu g/L), and statistically significant when compared with other sites (p < 0.003). Levels of selenium were highest in the Atlantic site reaching statistical significance (p < 0.001). All analysed metals were detected in umbilical cord blood samples and differed between sites, with mercury being highest in the Atlantic site (p < 0.001), lead being highest in the urban site (p < 0.004) and selenium in the Atlantic site (p < 0.001). To the best of our knowledge this pilot investigation is the first study performed in South Africa that measured multiple metals in delivering mothers and umbilical cord blood samples. These results will inform the selection of the geographical sites requiring further investigation in the main study.

The shared influence of phylogeny and ecology on the reproductive patterns of Myrteae (Myrtaceae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Primary production of Utricularia foliosa L., Egeria densa Planchon and Cabomba furcata Schult & Schult.f from rivers of the coastal plain of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Seasonal variation in gross primary production (GPP) of Utricularia foliosa Linnaeus, Egeria densa Planchon and Cabomba furcata Schult & Schult.f. in rivers of the coastal plain of the state of São Paulo, Brazil was examined in relation to water physico-chemistry. These three species do not affect the multiple uses of the streams and are present throughout the year. The most productive was U. foliosa (maximum production 24.7 mgO(2) g(-1) DW h(-1)), while C. furcata had an intermediate GPP (maximum production 17.5 mgO(2) g(-1) DW h(-1)) and E. densa was lowest at 5.6 mgO(2) g(-1) DW h(-1). Despite the low amplitude of seasonal variation in this south tropical area, the three species showed seasonal variation in the primary production: GPP was positively correlated with photosynthetic active radiation for U. foliosa and E. densa, and there was a negative correlation for C. furcata. For U. foliosa, GPP was positively correlated with temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon and the GPP of C. jurcata was positively correlated with dissolved inorganic carbon.

Composição corporal e índices biométricos do pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus Holmberg, 1887 (Osteichthyes, Characidae) submetido a ciclos alternados de restrição alimentar e realimentação

The present paper evaluated, through hepatosomatic/mesenteric fat indexes and body composition, the pacu energy utilization when submitted to alternated food restriction/refeeding cycles during the growout period. Juveniles were distributed in three pounds and submitted to different feeding programs: A (ad libitum daily feeding), B (4-week feeding restriction and 9-week refeeding) and C (6-week feeding restrictions and 7-week refeeding), totaling 13 weeks for each cycle (4 experimental cycles). At the end of the periods, fish were sampled to obtain biometrics and biochemical data. The results showed that, during the first two cycles, C treatment obtained the best compensatory growth. Carcass lipid and water contents were inversely related, with body fat decrease. Fishes under B and C treatment during food restriction utilized liver and mesentery energy stores. These parameters were re-established in the refeeding phase, in all cycles.

Tele-education environment and didactic iconography in sexual transmitted diseases

The field of advertising has developed techniques of mass communication and rapid transmission of information. Among these techniques are slogans and iconographies. This work used such tools for educational purposes and was divided into three modules. Module 1 evaluated the use of simplified textual communication (slogans) about the subject Sexually Transmitted Diseases. It was applied to third-year medical students, which had not taken the course on this theme. To evaluate the impact of the textual communication form (slogans), long phrases were elaborated in scientific language containing 15 topics. From these long phrases, compact phrases were developed using techniques of the advertising area for elaboration of slogans. Three forms of didactic material about that theme were developed. The first form consisted of long phrases in descriptive topics, using scientific language. The second was constituted exclusively of compact phrases in the form of slogans, and the third was composed of the combination of the two previous forms. Then, 10 multiple-choice questions were elaborated and applied in two phases. In the first phase, application occurred immediately after the reading of didactic texts; in the second phase, it happened 60 days after the reading. For statistical analysis, Snedcor's F test was used for analysis of variance, at 5% significance level. There was an increase in memorization by students who read the material containing the association between long phrases and slogans, which indicates that the latter, when used as an auxiliary model of learning, can bring significant benefits for education. Module 2 consisted of analyzing the elaboration of educational videos produced in graphic computing (called iconographies) for development of dynamic communication means. The theme Hair Cycle was utilized. Viability of high quantities of information in few minutes of animation could be demonstrated together with the advantage of presenting the process in a dynamic form without wasting scientific details. Module 3 presented the inclusion of slogans in educational videos produced in graphic computing about the Hair Cycle, showing a new tool for rapid and efficient transference of data. Slogans and iconographies, when utilized in educational material, can bring significant benefits for the student's learning.

Infantile epileptic encephalopathy with hypsarrhythmia (infantile spasms/west syndrome) and immunity

West syndrome is a severe epilepsy, occurring in infancy, that comprises epileptic seizures known as spasms, in clusters, and a unique EEG pattern, hypsarrhythmia, with psychomotor regression. Maturation of the brain is a crucial component. The onset is within the first year of life, before 12 months of age. Patients are classified as cryptogenic (10 to 20%), when there are no known or diagnosed previous cerebral insults, and symptomatic (80 to 90%), when associated with pre-existing cerebral damages. The time interval from a brain insult to infantile spasms onset ranged from 6 weeks to 11 months. West syndrome has a time-limited natural evolutive course, usually disappearing by 3 or 4 years of age. In 62% of patients, there are transitions to another age-related epileptic encephalopathies, the Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome and severe epilepsy with multiple independent foci. Spontaneous remission and remission after viral infections may occur. Therapy with ACTH and corticosteroids are the most effective. Reports about intravenous immunoglobulins action deserve attention. There is also immune dysfunction, characterized mainly by anergy, impaired cell-mediated immunity, presence of immature thymocytes in peripheral blood, functional impairment of T lymphocytes induced by plasma inhibitory factors, and altered levels of immunoglobulins. Changes in B lymphocytes frequencies and increased levels of activated B cells have been reported. Sensitized lymphocytes to brain extract were also described. Infectious diseases are frequent and may, sometimes, cause fatal outcomes. Increase of pro-inflamatory cytokines in serum and cerebrospinal fluid of epileptic patients were reported. Association with specific HLA antigens was described by several authors (HLA-DR7, HLA-A7, HLA-DRw52, and HLA-DR5). Auto-antibodies to brain antigens, of several natures (N-methyl-d-aspartate glutamate receptor, gangliosides, brain tissue extract, synaptic membrane, and others), were described in epileptic patients and in epileptic syndromes. Experimental epilepsy studies with anti-brain antibodies demonstrated that epileptiform discharges can be obtained, producing hyperexcitability leading to epilepsy. We speculate that in genetically prone individuals, previous cerebral lesions may sensitize immune system and trigger an autoimmune disease. Antibody to brain antigens may be responsible for impairment of T cell function, due to plasma inhibitory effect and also cause epilepsy in immature brains. © 2008 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.

White book of e-government interoperability for Latin America and the Caribbean: version 3.0

Includes bibliography

Fuzzy logic to predict thermal damages of ground parts

One of the critical problems in implementing an intelligent grinding process is the automatic detection of workpiece surface burn. This work uses fuzzy logic as a tool to classify and predict burn levels in the grinding process. Based on acoustic emission signals, cutting power, and the mean-value deviance (MVD), linguistic rules were established for the various burn situations (slight, intermediate, severe) by applying fuzzy logic using the Matlab Toolbox. Three practical fuzzy system models were developed. The first model with two inputs resulted only in a simple analysis process. The second and third models have an additional MVD statistic input, associating information and precision. These two models differ from each other in terms of the rule base developed. The three developed models presented valid responses, proving effective, accurate, reliable and easy to use for the determination of ground workpiece burn. In this analysis, fuzzy logic translates the operator's human experience associated with powerful computational methods.