Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Consumer behaviour and lifestyle patterns of Hungarian students in view of environmental awareness

The aim of this paper is to describe the consumer behaviour and everyday lifestyle patterns of Hungarian university and college students. The results are gained from an international survey, carried out by the Department of Environmental Economics and Technology at the Corvinus University of Budapest, supported by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism. As background literature, characteristics of the consumer society and the development of sustainable consumption as a concept are interpreted in the paper. The empirical analysis aims to describe the most important clusters of students, based on the factors of their consumer behaviour, environmental activism and pro-environmental everyday habits. Our results identify two extreme clusters which most significantly differ from each other: the environmental activists and the indifferent group. However, a third cluster has the most modest consumer behaviour, namely the group which considers product features, energy consumption and the behaviour of producers. They spend the least on consumer goods. The three other clusters show quite mixed lifestyle patterns.

Social change in Central and Eastern Europe: General trends and national patterns

The paper addresses five issue areas. First it describes the plurality of trajectories in central and eastern European transformations, offering a broad typology. Then it addresses the drift between acceptance of democracy and the market, owing to growing inequalities. Third, problems of poverty and exclusion are addressed. Fourth, it is addressed if any known model of redistribution emerged in the post-transition economies. Fifth, consequences of the populist turn in European policies are being analyzed. Influences of the EU practices will be dealt with and some preliminary conclusions drawn. These suggest a strong intertwining between social and economic performance that limit theoretically conceivable – neoliberal, social democratic, postmodern or conservative - policy choices.

The zooplankton of the Ráckeve-Soroksár Danube: Spatio-temporal changes and similarity patterns

The Ráckeve-Soroksár Danube has a great importance as it is the second largest side arm in the Hungarian section of the river Danube and many demands of exploitation are expected. The aim of this study is to analyse the spatial and temporal changes of the zooplankton (Copepoda, Cladocera) community in this river arm, moreover the similarity patterns of zooplankton communities in different Hungarian water bodies are presented in special consideration of the Ráckeve-Soroksár Danube. Basically this study is based on data from literature, however our data are also used for compiling the database for the spatio-temporal changes of the Ráckeve-Soroksár Danube. We put emphasis on the three typical sections of the side arm, as these are stressed due to hydromorphological aspects, but creating artificial borders are objectionable as well. The results show that both spatial and temporal changes are evident, what is more, the stagnant water character of the side arm should be underlined.

Spatial and temporal patterns of true bug assemblages extracted with Berlese funnels (Data to the knowledge on the ground-living Heteroptera of Hungary, No. 2)

A rich material of Heteroptera extracted with Berlese funnels by Dr. I. Loksa between 1953–1974 in Hungary, has been examined. Altogether 157 true bug species have been identified. The ground-living heteropteran assemblages collected in different plant communities, substrata, phytogeographical provinces and seasons have been compared with multivariate methods. Because of the unequal number of samples, the objects have been standardized with stochastic simulation. There are several true bug species, which have been collected in almost all of the plant communities. However, characteristic ground-living heteropteran assemblages have been found in numerous Hungarian plant community types. Leaf litter and debris seem to have characteristic bug assemblages. Some differences have also been recognised between the bug fauna of mosses growing on different surfaces. Most of the species have been found in all of the great phytogeographical provinces of Hungary. Most high-dominance species, which have been collected, can be found at the ground-level almost throughout the year. Specimens of many other species have been collected with Berlese funnels in spring, autumn and/or winter. The diversities of the ground-living heteropteran assemblages of the examined objects have also been compared.

Seed dispersal and reproduction patterns among Everglades plants

In this study three aspects of sexual reproduction in Everglades plants were examined to more clearly understand seed dispersal and the allocation of resources to sexual reproduction—spatial dispersal process, temporal dispersal of seeds (seedbank), and germination patterns in the dominant species, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense). Community assembly rules for fruit dispersal were deduced by analysis of functional traits associated with this process. Seedbank ecology was investigated by monitoring emergence of germinants from sawgrass soil samples held under varying water depths to determine the fate of dispersed seeds. Fine-scale study of sawgrass fruits yielded information on contributions to variation in sexually produced propagules in this species, which primarily reproduces vegetatively. It was hypothesized that Everglades plants possess a set of functional traits that enhance diaspore dispersal. To test this, 14 traits were evaluated among 51 species by factor analysis. The factorial plot of this analysis generated groups of related traits, with four suites of traits forming dispersal syndromes. Hydrochory traits were categorized by buoyancy and appendages enhancing buoyancy. Anemochory traits were categorized by diaspore size and appendages enhancing air movement. Epizoochory traits were categorized by diaspore size, buoyancy, and appendages allowing for attachment. Endozoochory traits were categorized by diaspore size, buoyancy, and appendages aiding diaspore presentation. These patterns/trends of functional trait organization also represent dispersal community assembly rules. Seeds dispersed by hydrochory were hypothesized to be caught most often in the edge of the north side of sawgrass patches. Patterns of germination and dispersal mode of all hydrochorous macrophytes with propagules in the seedbank were elucidated by germination analysis from 90 soil samples collected from 10 sawgrass patches. Mean site seed density was 486 seeds/m2 from 13 species. Most seeds collected at the north side of patches and significantly in the outer one meter of the patch edge (p = 0.013). Sawgrass seed germination was hypothesized to vary by site, among individual plants, and within different locations of a plant’s infructescence. An analysis of sawgrass fruits with nested ANOVAs found that collection site and interaction of site x individual plant significantly affect germination ability, seed viability, and fruit size (p ≤ 0.050). Fruit location within a plant’s infructescence did not significantly affect germination. As for allocation of resources to sexual reproduction, only 17.9% of sawgrass seeds germinated and only 4.8% of ungerminated seeds with fleshy endosperm were presumed viable, but dormant. Collectively, only 22% of all sawgrass seeds produced were viable.

Fatty acids and stable isotopes as indicators of early-life feeding and potential maternal resource dependency in the bull shark Carcharhinus leucas

The degree of reliance of newborn sharks on energy reserves from maternal resource allocation and the timescales over which these animals develop foraging skills are critical factors towards understanding the ecological role of top predators in marine ecosystems. We used muscle tissue stable carbon isotopic composition and fatty acid analysis of bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas to investigate early-life feeding ecology in conjunction with maternal resource dependency. Values of δ13C of some young-of-the-year sharks were highly enriched, reflecting inputs from the marine-based diet and foraging locations of their mothers. This group of sharks also contained high levels of the 20:3ω9 fatty acid, which accumulates during periods of essential fatty acid deficiency, suggesting inadequate or undeveloped foraging skills and possible reliance on maternal provisioning. A loss of maternal signal in δ13C values occurred at a length of approximately 100 cm, with muscle tissue δ13C values reflecting a transition from more freshwater/estuarine-based diets to marine-based diets with increasing length. Similarly, fatty acids from sharks >100 cm indicated no signs of essential fatty acid deficiency, implying adequate foraging. By combining stable carbon isotopes and fatty acids, our results provided important constraints on the timing of the loss of maternal isotopic signal and the development of foraging skills in relation to shark size and imply that molecular markers such as fatty acids are useful for the determination of maternal resource dependency.

Spatial scale and abundance patterns of large fish communities in freshwater marshes of the Florida Everglades

Anthropogenic habitat alterations and water-management practices have imposed an artificial spatial scale onto the once contiguous freshwater marshes of the Florida Everglades. To gain insight into how these changes may affect biotic communities, we examined whether variation in the abundance and community structure of large fishes (SL . 8 cm) in Everglades marshes varied more at regional or intraregional scales, and whether this variation was related to hydroperiod, water depth, floating mat volume, and vegetation density. From October 1997 to October 2002, we used an airboat electrofisher to sample large fishes at sites within three regions of the Everglades. Each of these regions is subject to unique watermanagement schedules. Dry-down events (water depth , 10 cm) occurred at several sites during spring in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002. The 2001 dry-down event was the most severe and widespread. Abundance of several fishes decreased significantly through time, and the number of days post-dry-down covaried significantly with abundance for several species. Processes operating at the regional scale appear to play important roles in regulating large fishes. The most pronounced patterns in abundance and community structure occurred at the regional scale, and the effect size for region was greater than the effect size for sites nested within region for abundance of all species combined, all predators combined, and each of the seven most abundant species. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling revealed distinct groupings of sites corresponding to the three regions. We also found significant variation in community structure through time that correlated with the number of days post-dry-down. Our results suggest that hydroperiod and water management at the regional scale influence large fish communities of Everglades marshes.

Spatial and temporal patterns of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) along two freshwater-estuarine transects in the Florida Coastal Everglades

We present here a 4-year dataset (2001–2004) on the spatial and temporal patterns of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by dominant primary producers (sawgrass, periphyton, mangroves, and seagrasses) along two transects in the oligotrophic Florida Everglades coastal landscape. The 17 sites of the Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) program are located along fresh-estuarine gradients in Shark River Slough (SRS) and Taylor River/C-111/Florida Bay (TS/Ph) basins that drain the western and southern Everglades, respectively. Within the SRS basin, sawgrass and periphyton ANPP did not differ significantly among sites but mangrove ANPP was highest at the site nearest the Gulf of Mexico. In the southern Everglades transect, there was a productivity peak in sawgrass and periphyton at the upper estuarine ecotone within Taylor River but no trends were observed in the C-111 Basin for either primary producer. Over the 4 years, average sawgrass ANPP in both basins ranged from 255 to 606 g m−2 year−1. Average periphyton productivity at SRS and TS/Ph was 17–68 g C m−2 year−1 and 342–10371 g C m−2 year−1, respectively. Mangrove productivity ranged from 340 g m−2 year−1 at Taylor River to 2208 g m−2 year−1 at the lower estuarine Shark River site. Average Thalassia testudinum productivity ranged from 91 to 396 g m−2 year−1 and was 4-fold greater at the site nearest the Gulf of Mexico than in eastern Florida Bay. There were no differences in periphyton productivity at Florida Bay. Interannual comparisons revealed no significant differences within each primary producer at either SRS or TS/Ph with the exception of sawgrass at SRS and the C−111 Basin. Future research will address difficulties in assessing and comparing ANPP of different primary producers along gradients as well as the significance of belowground production to the total productivity of this ecosystem.

Analysis of Students’ Misconceptions and Error Patterns in Mathematics: The Case of Fractions

This study analyzed three fifth grade students’ misconceptions and error patterns when working with equivalence, addition and subtraction of fractions. The findings revealed that students used both conceptual and procedural knowledge to solve the problems. They used pictures, gave examples, and made connections to other mathematical concepts and to daily life topics. Error patterns found include using addition and subtraction of numerators and denominators, and finding the greatest common factor.

Seed Dispersal and Reproduction Patterns Among Everglades Plants

In this study three aspects of sexual reproduction in Everglades plants were examined to more clearly understand seed dispersal and the allocation of resources to sexual reproduction— spatial dispersal process, temporal dispersal of seeds (seedbank), and germination patterns in the dominant species, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense). Community assembly rules for fruit dispersal were deduced by analysis of functional traits associated with this process. Seedbank ecology was investigated by monitoring emergence of germinants from sawgrass soil samples held under varying water depths to determine the fate of dispersed seeds. Fine-scale study of sawgrass fruits yielded information on contributions to variation in sexually produced propagules in this species, which primarily reproduces vegetatively. It was hypothesized that Everglades plants possess a set of functional traits that enhance diaspore dispersal. To test this, 14 traits were evaluated among 51 species by factor analysis. The factorial plot of this analysis generated groups of related traits, with four suites of traits forming dispersal syndromes. Hydrochory traits were categorized by buoyancy and appendages enhancing buoyancy. Anemochory traits were categorized by diaspore size and appendages enhancing air movement. Epizoochory traits were categorized by diaspore size, buoyancy, and appendages allowing for attachment. Endozoochory traits were categorized by diaspore size, buoyancy, and appendages aiding diaspore presentation. These patterns/trends of functional trait organization also represent dispersal community assembly rules. Seeds dispersed by hydrochory were hypothesized to be caught most often in the edge of the north side of sawgrass patches. Patterns of germination and dispersal mode of all hydrochorous macrophytes with propagules in the seedbank were elucidated by germination analysis from 90 soil samples collected from 10 sawgrass patches. Mean site seed density was 486 seeds/m2 from 13 species. Most seeds collected at the north side of patches and significantly in the outer one meter of the patch edge (p = 0.013). Sawgrass seed germination was hypothesized to vary by site, among individual plants, and within different locations of a plant’s infructescence. An analysis of sawgrass fruits with nested ANOVAs found that collection site and interaction of site x individual plant significantly affect germination ability, seed viability, and fruit size (p < 0.050). Fruit location within a plant’s infructescence did not significantly affect germination. As for allocation of resources to sexual reproduction, only 17.9% of sawgrass seeds germinated and only 4.8% of ungerminated seeds with fleshy endosperm were presumed viable, but dormant. Collectively, only 22% of all sawgrass seeds produced were viable.

Impact of nutrition education on knowledge and eating patterns in HIV-infected individuals

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and impaired or threatened nutritional status seem to be closely related. It is now known that AIDS results in many nutritional disorders including anorexia, vomiting, protein-energy malnutrition (PEM), nutrient deficiencies, and gastrointestinal, renal, and hepatic dysfunction (1-7, 8). Reversibly, nutritional status may also have an impact on the development of AIDS among HIV-infected people. Not all individuals who have tested antibody positive for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) have developed AIDS or have even shown clinical symptoms (9, 10). A poor nutritional status, especially PEM, has a depressing effect on immunity which may predispose an individual to infection (11). It has been proposed that a qualitatively or quantitatively deficient diet could be among the factors precipitating the transition from HIV-positive to AIDS (12, 13). The interrelationship between nutrition and AIDS reveals the importance of having a multidisciplinary health care team approach to treatment (11), including having a registered dietitian on the medical team. With regards to alimentation, the main responsibility of a dietitian is to inform the public concerning sound nutritional practices and encourage healthy food habits (14). In individuals with inadequate nutritional behavior, a positive, long-term change has been seen when nutrition education tailored to specific physiological and emotional needs was provided along with psychological support through counseling (14). This has been the case for patients with various illnesses and may also be true in AIDS patients as well. Nutritional education specifically tailored for each AIDS patient could benefit the patient by improving the quality of life and preventing or minimizing weight loss and malnutrition (15-17). Also, it may influence the progression of the disease by delaying the onset of the most severe symptoms and increasing the efficacy of medical treatment (18, 19). Several studies have contributed to a dietary rationale for nutritional intervention in HIV-infected and AIDS patients (2, 4, 20-25). Prospective, randomized clinical research in AIDS patients have not yet been published to support this dietary rationale; however, isolated case reports show its suitability (3). Furthermore, only nutrition intervention as applied by a medical team in an institution or hospital has been evaluated. Research is lacking concerning the evaluation of nutritional education of either non-institutionalized or hospitalized groups of persons who are managing their own food choice and intake. This study compares nutrition knowledge and food intakes in HIV-infected individuals prior to and following nutrition education. It was anticipated that education would increase the knowledge of nutritional care of AIDS patients and lead to better implementation of nutrition education programs.

An evaluation of home range models for marine fish tracking and fine scale habitat use and movement patterns of age 1 Greenland cod (Gadus macrocephalus ogac)

My thesis examines fine-scale habitat use and movement patterns of age 1 Greenland cod (Gadus macrocephalus ogac) tracked using acoustic telemetry. Recent advances in tracking technologies such as GPS and acoustic telemetry have led to increasingly large and detailed datasets that present new opportunities for researchers to address fine-scale ecological questions regarding animal movement and spatial distribution. There is a growing demand for home range models that will not only work with massive quantities of autocorrelated data, but that can also exploit the added detail inherent in these high-resolution datasets. Most published home range studies use radio-telemetry or satellite data from terrestrial mammals or avian species, and most studies that evaluate the relative performance of home range models use simulated data. In Chapter 2, I used actual field-collected data from age-1 Greenland cod tracked with acoustic telemetry to evaluate the accuracy and precision of six home range models: minimum convex polygons, kernel densities with plug-in bandwidth selection and the reference bandwidth, adaptive local convex hulls, Brownian bridges, and dynamic Brownian bridges. I then applied the most appropriate model to two years (2010-2012) of tracking data collected from 82 tagged Greenland cod tracked in Newman Sound, Newfoundland, Canada, to determine diel and seasonal differences in habitat use and movement patterns (Chapter 3). Little is known of juvenile cod ecology, so resolving these relationships will provide valuable insight into activity patterns, habitat use, and predator-prey dynamics, while filling a knowledge gap regarding the use of space by age 1 Greenland cod in a coastal nursery habitat. By doing so, my thesis demonstrates an appropriate technique for modelling the spatial use of fish from acoustic telemetry data that can be applied to high-resolution, high-frequency tracking datasets collected from mobile organisms in any environment.

Particle flux characterisation and sedimentation patterns of protistan plankton during the iron fertilisation experiment LOHAFEX in the Southern Ocean

The taxonomic composition and types of particles comprising the downward particle flux were examined during the mesoscale artificial iron fertilisation experiment LOHAFEX. The experiment was conducted in low-silicate waters of the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean during austral summer (January-March 2009), and induced a bloom dominated by small flagellates. Downward particle flux was low throughout the experiment, and not enhanced by addition of iron; neutrally buoyant sediment traps contained mostly faecal pellets and faecal material apparently reprocessed by mesozooplankton. TEP fluxes were low, <5 mg GX eq/m**2/day, and a few phytodetrital aggregates were found in the sediment traps. Only a few per cent of the POC flux was found in the traps consisting of intact protist plankton, although remains of taxa with hard body parts (diatoms, tintinnids, thecate dinoflagellates and foraminifera) were numerous, far more so than intact specimens of these taxa. Nevertheless, many small flagellates and coccoid cells, belonging to the pico- and nanoplankton, were found in the traps, and these small, soft-bodied cells probably contributed the majority of downward POC flux via mesozooplankton grazing and faecal pellet export. TEP likely played an important role by aggregating these small cells, and making them more readily available to mesozooplankton grazers.

The adaptive response of humans to exercise: Impact of exercise intensity, fibre-type specific responses and molecular patterns of response

In an attempt to improve the current understanding of the adaptive response to exercise in humans, this dissertation performed a series of studies designed to examine the impact of training intensity and mode on aerobic capacity and performance, fibre-type specific adaptations to training, and individual patterns of response across molecular, morphological and genetic factors. Project #1 determined that training intensity, session dose, baseline VO2max and total training volume do not influence the magnitude of change in VO2max by performing a meta-regression, and meta-analysis of 28 different studies. The intensity of training had no effect on the magnitude of increase in maximal oxygen uptake in young healthy participants, but similar adaptations were achieved with lower training doses following high intensity training. Project # 2 determined the acute molecular response, and training-induced adaptations in aerobic performance, aerobic capacity and muscle phenotype following high-intensity interval training (HIT) or endurance exercise (END). The acute molecular response (fibre recruitment and signal activation) and training-induced adaptations in aerobic capacity, aerobic performance, and muscle phenotype were similar following HIT and END. Project # 3 examined the impact of baseline muscle morphology and molecular characteristics on the training response, and if muscle adaptations are coordinated. The muscle phenotype of individuals who experience the largest improvements (high responders) were lower before training for some muscle characteristics and molecular adaptations were coordinated within individual participants. Project # 4 examined the impact of 2 different intensities of HIT on the expression of nuclear and mitochondrial encoded genes targeted by PGC-1α. A systematic upregulation of nuclear and mitochondrial encoded genes was not present in the early recovery period following acute HIT, but the expression of mitochondrial genes were coordinated at an individual level. Collectively, results from the current dissertation contribute to our understanding of the molecular mechanisms influencing skeletal muscle and whole-body adaptive responses to acute exercise and training in humans.