Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød at Gerzensee—a simulation study

The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

Catastrophic Ice Shelf Breakup as the Source of Heinrich Event Icebergs

Heinrich layers of the glacial North Atlantic record abrupt widespread iceberg rafting of detrital carbonate and other lithic material at the extreme-cold culminations of Bond climate cycles. Both internal (glaciologic) and external ( climate) forcings have been proposed. Here we suggest an explanation for the iceberg release that encompasses external climate forcing on the basis of a new glaciological process recently witnessed along the Antarctic Peninsula: rapid disintegrations of fringing ice shelves induced by climate-controlled meltwater infilling of surface crevasses. We postulate that peripheral ice shelves, formed along the eastern Canadian seaboard during extreme cold conditions, would be vulnerable to sudden climate-driven disintegration during any climate amelioration. Ice shelf disintegration then would be the source of Heinrich event icebergs.

Event-relating to potential dementia. Semantic processing in the course of healthy and pathological aging

While most healthy elderly are able to manage their everyday activities, studies showed that there are both stable and declining abilities during healthy aging. For example, there is evidence that semantic memory processes which involve controlled retrieval mechanism decrease, whereas the automatic functioning of the semantic network remains intact. In contrast, patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) suffer from episodic and semantic memory impairments aggravating their daily functioning. In AD, severe episodic as well as semantic memory deficits are observable. While the hallmark symptom of episodic memory decline in AD is well investigated, the underlying mechanisms of semantic memory deterioration remain unclear. By disentangling the semantic memory impairments in AD, the present thesis aimed to improve early diagnosis and to find a biomarker for dementia. To this end, a study on healthy aging and a study with dementia patients were conducted investigating automatic and controlled semantic word retrieval. Besides the inclusion of AD patients, a group of participants diagnosed with semantic dementia (SD) – showing isolated semantic memory loss – was assessed. Automatic and controlled semantic word retrieval was measured with standard neuropsychological tests and by means of event-related potentials (ERP) recorded during the performance of a semantic priming (SP) paradigm. Special focus was directed to the N400 or N400-LPC (late positive component) complex, an ERP that is sensitive to the semantic word retrieval. In both studies, data driven topographical analyses were applied. Furthermore, in the patient study, the combination of the individual baseline cerebral blood flow (CBF) with the N400 topography of each participant was employed in order to relate altered functional electrophysiology to the pathophysiology of dementia. Results of the aging study revealed that the automatic semantic word retrieval remains stable during healthy aging, the N400-LPC complex showed a comparable topography in contrast to the young participants. Both patient groups showed automatic SP to some extent, but strikingly the ERP topographies were altered compared to healthy controls. Most importantly, the N400 was identified as a putative marker for dementia. In particular, the degree of the topographical N400 similarity was demonstrated to separate healthy elderly from demented patients. Furthermore, the marker was significantly related to baseline CBF reduction in brain areas relevant for semantic word retrieval. Summing up, the first major finding of the present thesis was that all groups showed semantic priming, but that the N400 topography differed significantly between healthy and demented elderly. The second major contribution was the identification of the N400 similarity as a putative marker for dementia. To conclude, the present thesis added evidence of preserved automatic processing during healthy aging. Moreover, a possible marker which might contribute to an improved diagnosis and lead consequently to a more effective treatment of dementia was presented and has to be further developed.

Simulation of SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms for cloud-distributed applications

Cloud Computing has evolved to become an enabler for delivering access to large scale distributed applications running on managed network-connected computing systems. This makes possible hosting Distributed Enterprise Information Systems (dEISs) in cloud environments, while enforcing strict performance and quality of service requirements, defined using Service Level Agreements (SLAs). {SLAs} define the performance boundaries of distributed applications, and are enforced by a cloud management system (CMS) dynamically allocating the available computing resources to the cloud services. We present two novel VM-scaling algorithms focused on dEIS systems, which optimally detect most appropriate scaling conditions using performance-models of distributed applications derived from constant-workload benchmarks, together with SLA-specified performance constraints. We simulate the VM-scaling algorithms in a cloud simulator and compare against trace-based performance models of dEISs. We compare a total of three SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms (one using prediction mechanisms) based on a real-world application scenario involving a large variable number of users. Our results show that it is beneficial to use autoregressive predictive SLA-driven scaling algorithms in cloud management systems for guaranteeing performance invariants of distributed cloud applications, as opposed to using only reactive SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms.

Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach: LforS Learning and Simulation Game

Main objective of the game is to increase the coping capacity of players and familiarise them with the Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach. The game is intended to prepare for and introduce the players to a subsequent Learning for Sustainability capacity building workshop for community leaders. The game represents a typical emergency situation resulting from a natural disaster. Before and after the event, adequate measures help to prevent or minimise potential damages. Once a disaster has occurred, concerted actions and immediate measures need to be taken to rescue as much as possible (human lives, livestock, material) and safeguard the village against further damage and losses. In the course of the game, each playing team can proof its knowledge on adequate measures that have to be taken in order to avoid or reduce losses related to natural disasters. Such measures relate to assessment and monitoring of risks, prevention and mitigation measures, preparedness and response as well as recovery and reconstruction.

Stochastic simulation of rare events

Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

Impact of Taylor-Aris diffusivity on analyte and system zone dispersion in CZE assessed by computer simulation and experimental validation.

Application of pressure-driven laminar flow has an impact on zone and boundary dispersion in open tubular CE. The GENTRANS dynamic simulator for electrophoresis was extended with Taylor-Aris diffusivity which accounts for dispersion due to the parabolic flow profile associated with pressure-driven flow. Effective diffusivity of analyte and system zones as functions of the capillary diameter and the amount of flow in comparison to molecular diffusion alone were studied for configurations with concomitant action of imposed hydrodynamic flow and electroosmosis. For selected examples under realistic experimental conditions, simulation data are compared with those monitored experimentally using modular CE setups featuring both capacitively coupled contactless conductivity and UV absorbance detection along a 50 μm id fused-silica capillary of 90 cm total length. The data presented indicate that inclusion of flow profile based Taylor-Aris diffusivity provides realistic simulation data for analyte and system peaks, particularly those monitored in CE with conductivity detection.

The Driven Harmonic Oscillator in Chemistry

The molecular dynamical simulation of the normal vibrational mode of water which involves H-O-H angle deformation, when driven by an external force, can be used to see how a driven harmonic oscillator, classically, is associated with the infra-red spectrum of water (and the absorption for this particular normal mode).

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

A simulation study of the standard design, the rolling six design, the CRM, and the modified CRM in Phase I clinical trials

The Phase I clinical trial is considered the "first in human" study in medical research to examine the toxicity of a new agent. It determines the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of a new agent, i.e., the highest dose in which toxicity is still acceptable. Several phase I clinical trial designs have been proposed in the past 30 years. The well known standard method, so called the 3+3 design, is widely accepted by clinicians since it is the easiest to implement and it does not need a statistical calculation. Continual reassessment method (CRM), a design uses Bayesian method, has been rising in popularity in the last two decades. Several variants of the CRM design have also been suggested in numerous statistical literatures. Rolling six is a new method introduced in pediatric oncology in 2008, which claims to shorten the trial duration as compared to the 3+3 design. The goal of the present research was to simulate clinical trials and compare these phase I clinical trial designs. Patient population was created by discrete event simulation (DES) method. The characteristics of the patients were generated by several distributions with the parameters derived from a historical phase I clinical trial data review. Patients were then selected and enrolled in clinical trials, each of which uses the 3+3 design, the rolling six, or the CRM design. Five scenarios of dose-toxicity relationship were used to compare the performance of the phase I clinical trial designs. One thousand trials were simulated per phase I clinical trial design per dose-toxicity scenario. The results showed the rolling six design was not superior to the 3+3 design in terms of trial duration. The time to trial completion was comparable between the rolling six and the 3+3 design. However, they both shorten the duration as compared to the two CRM designs. Both CRMs were superior to the 3+3 design and the rolling six in accuracy of MTD estimation. The 3+3 design and rolling six tended to assign more patients to undesired lower dose levels. The toxicities were slightly greater in the CRMs.^

Occurrence and Range-through database of functional diversity of marine ecosystems after the Late Permian mass extinction event

The Late Permian mass extinction event about 252 million years ago was the most severe biotic crisis of the past 500 million years and occurred during an episode of global warming. The loss of around two-thirds of marine genera is thought to have had substantial ecological effects, but the overall impacts on the functioning of marine ecosystems and the pattern of marine recovery are uncertain. Here we analyse the fossil occurrences of all known benthic marine invertebrate genera from the Permian and Triassic periods, and assign each to a functional group based on their inferred lifestyle. We show that despite the selective extinction of 62-74% of these genera, all but one functional group persisted through the crisis, indicating that there was no significant loss of functional diversity at the global scale. In addition, only one new mode of life originated in the extinction aftermath. We suggest that Early Triassic marine ecosystems were not as ecologically depauperate as widely assumed. Functional diversity was, however, reduced in particular regions and habitats, such as tropical reefs; at these smaller scales, recovery varied spatially and temporally, probably driven by migration of surviving groups. We find that marine ecosystems did not return to their pre-extinction state, and by the Middle Triassic greater functional evenness is recorded, resulting from the radiation of previously subordinate groups such as motile, epifaunal grazers.

Simulation Model of Benthic Antarctic Assemblages (SIMBAA), link to PC-executable

SIMBAA is a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model. It was developed to analyse the response of populations of Antarctic benthic species and their diversity to iceberg scouring. This disturbance is causing a high local mortality providing potential space for new colonisation. Traits can be attributed to model species, e.g. in terms of reproduction, dispersal, and life span. Physical disturbances can be designed in space and time, e.g. in terms of size, shape, and frequency. Environmental heterogeneity can be considered by cell-specific capacities to host a certain number of individuals. When grid cells become empty (after a disturbance event or due to natural mortality of of an individual), a lottery decides which individual from which species stored in a pool of candidates (for this cell) will recruit in that cell. After a defined period the individuals become mature and their offspring are dispersed and stored in the pool of candidates. The biological parameters and disturbance regimes decide on how long an individual lives. Temporal development of single populations of species as well as Shannon diversity are depicted in the main window graphically and primary values are listed. Examples for simulations can be loaded and saved as sgf-files. The results are also shown in an additional window in a dimensionless area with 50 x 50 cells, which contain single individuals depicted as circles; their colour indicates the assignment to the self-designed model species and the size represents their age. Dominant species per cell and disturbed areas can also be depicted. Output of simulation runs can be saved as images, which can be assembled to video-clips by standard computer programs (see GIF-examples of which "Demo 1" represents the response of the Antarctic benthos to iceberg scouring and "Demo 2" represents a simulation of a deep-sea benthic habitat).

Palynology and sea surface temperature reconstruction for the mid-Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 at ODP Hole 210-1276A

The mid-Cretaceous is thought to be a greenhouse world with significantly higher atmospheric pCO2 and sea-surface temperatures as well as a much flatter latitudinal thermal gradient compared to the present. This time interval was punctuated by the Cenomanian/Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE-2, ~ 93.5 Myr ago), an episode of global, massive organic carbon burial that likely resulted in a large and abrupt pCO2 decline. However, the climatic consequences of this pCO2 drop are yet poorly constrained. We determined the first, high-resolution sea-surface temperature (SST) record across OAE-2 from a deep-marine sedimentary sequence at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1276 in the mid-latitudinal Newfoundland Basin, NW Atlantic. By employing the organic palaeothermometer TEX86, we found that SSTs across the OAE-2 interval were extremely high, but were punctuated by a remarkably large cooling (5-11 °C), which is synchronous with the 2.5-5.5 °C cooling in SST records from equatorial Atlantic sites, and the "Plenus Cold Event". Because this global cooling event is concurrent with increased organic carbon burial, it likely acted in response to the associated pCO2 drop. Our findings imply a substantial increase in the latitudinal SST gradient in the proto-North Atlantic during this period of global cooling and reduced atmospheric pCO2, suggesting a strong coupling between pCO2 and latitudinal thermal gradients under greenhouse climate conditions.

Biogenic and environmental fluctuations of temperature and pH in a novel mesocosm concept ("Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms") April 2013 to September 2014

The Kiel Outdoor Benthocosm infrastructure (Kiel, Germany,N 54°19.8'; E 010°09.0') allows combining natural in-situ fluctuations on all environmental variables with the controlled manipulation of treatment factors. The environmental fluctuations are admitted by a continuous flow-through of fjord water. The treatment is applied by delta-treatments which shift the mean of target variables (temperature and pH in this case) while maintaining the frequency and amplitude of natural fluctuations. The data presented here show the treatment levels and the continuously logged temperature and pH conditions in the experimental tanks. The dynamics of temperature and pH are driven by (i) in situ variability, (ii) the treatments imposed and (iii) the biology of the biota in the tanks. These contained macroalgal communities with associated mesograzers, mussels, and sea stars. The data set comprised 5 experimental runs: spring experiment (4.4.-19.6.2013), summer experiment 1 (4.7.-17.9.2013), autumn experiment (10.10-17.12.2013), winter experiment (16.1. - 1.4.2014), summer experiment 2 (10.7. - 26.9.2014).