Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

On the study of train-track dynamic interactions caused by rail welds on discrete supported rails

The paper studies the influence of rail weld dip on wheel-rail contact dynamics, with particular reference to freight trains where it is important to increase the operating speed and also the load transported. This has produced a very precise model, albeit simple and cost-effective, which has enabled train-track dynamic interactions over rail welds to be studied to make it possible to quantify the influence on dynamic forces and displacements of the welding geometry; of the position of the weld relative to the sleeper; of the vehicle's speed; and of the axle load and wheelset unsprung mass. It is a vertical model on the spatial domain and is drawn up in a simple fashion from vertical track receptances. For the type of track and vehicle used, the results obtained enable the quantification of increases in wheel-rail contact forces due to the new speed and load conditions.

Hydrosedimentological dynamic on Água Fria Watershed

Este estudo objetivou estimar a quantidade de sedimento que foi carreada da microbacia do Ribeirão Água Fria (Palmas, TO) entre fevereiro de 1998 e janeiro de 1999. Almejou-se ainda investigar as relações entre a produção de sedimento e alguns fatores antrópicos e ambientais. O método de Colby foi a técnica empregada no estudo. A produção específica de sedimento e o coeficiente de remoção de sedimentos foram parâmetros também investigados neste trabalho. Foi estimada uma quantidade de 138.619 toneladas de sedimento produzido e a produção específica de sedimentos foi estimada como sendo 827 t km-2 ano-1, enquanto que o coeficiente de remoção de sedimentos foi 6,2%. A fração suspensa foi a predominante durante quase todo o período de estudo.

Real-time load-side control of electric power systems

Two trends are emerging from modern electric power systems: the growth of renewable (e.g., solar and wind) generation, and the integration of information technologies and advanced power electronics. The former introduces large, rapid, and random fluctuations in power supply, demand, frequency, and voltage, which become a major challenge for real-time operation of power systems. The latter creates a tremendous number of controllable intelligent endpoints such as smart buildings and appliances, electric vehicles, energy storage devices, and power electronic devices that can sense, compute, communicate, and actuate. Most of these endpoints are distributed on the load side of power systems, in contrast to traditional control resources such as centralized bulk generators. This thesis focuses on controlling power systems in real time, using these load side resources. Specifically, it studies two problems.

(1) Distributed load-side frequency control: We establish a mathematical framework to design distributed frequency control algorithms for flexible electric loads. In this framework, we formulate a category of optimization problems, called optimal load control (OLC), to incorporate the goals of frequency control, such as balancing power supply and demand, restoring frequency to its nominal value, restoring inter-area power flows, etc., in a way that minimizes total disutility for the loads to participate in frequency control by deviating from their nominal power usage. By exploiting distributed algorithms to solve OLC and analyzing convergence of these algorithms, we design distributed load-side controllers and prove stability of closed-loop power systems governed by these controllers. This general framework is adapted and applied to different types of power systems described by different models, or to achieve different levels of control goals under different operation scenarios. We first consider a dynamically coherent power system which can be equivalently modeled with a single synchronous machine. We then extend our framework to a multi-machine power network, where we consider primary and secondary frequency controls, linear and nonlinear power flow models, and the interactions between generator dynamics and load control.

(2) Two-timescale voltage control: The voltage of a power distribution system must be maintained closely around its nominal value in real time, even in the presence of highly volatile power supply or demand. For this purpose, we jointly control two types of reactive power sources: a capacitor operating at a slow timescale, and a power electronic device, such as a smart inverter or a D-STATCOM, operating at a fast timescale. Their control actions are solved from optimal power flow problems at two timescales. Specifically, the slow-timescale problem is a chance-constrained optimization, which minimizes power loss and regulates the voltage at the current time instant while limiting the probability of future voltage violations due to stochastic changes in power supply or demand. This control framework forms the basis of an optimal sizing problem, which determines the installation capacities of the control devices by minimizing the sum of power loss and capital cost. We develop computationally efficient heuristics to solve the optimal sizing problem and implement real-time control. Numerical experiments show that the proposed sizing and control schemes significantly improve the reliability of voltage control with a moderate increase in cost.

STATE OF CHARGE BALANCING DROOP CONTROL

This thesis presents a load sharing method applied in a distributed micro grid system. The goal of this method is to balance the state-of-charge (SoC) of each parallel connected battery and make it possible to detect the average SoC of the system by measuring bus voltage for all connected modules. In this method the reference voltage for each battery converter is adjusted by adding a proportional SoC factor. Under such setting the battery with a higher SoC will output more power, whereas the one with lower SoC gives out less. Therefore the higher SoC battery will use its energy faster than the lower ones, and eventually the SoC and output power of each battery will converge. And because the reference voltage is related to SoC status, the information of the average SoC in this system could be shared for all modules by measuring bus voltage. The SoC balancing speed is related to the SoC droop factors. This SoC-based load sharing control system is analyzed in feasibility and stability. Simulations in MATLAB/Simulink are presented, which indicate that this control scheme could balance the battery SoCs as predicted. The observation of SoC sharing through bus voltage was validated in both software simulation and hardware experiments. It could be of use to non-communicated distributed power system in load shedding and power planning.

Reference Values For High-density Lipoprotein Particle Size And Volume By Dynamic Light Scattering In A Brazilian Population Sample And Their Relationships With Metabolic Parameters.

Current data indicate that the size of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) may be considered an important marker for cardiovascular disease risk. We established reference values of mean HDL size and volume in an asymptomatic representative Brazilian population sample (n=590) and their associations with metabolic parameters by gender. Size and volume were determined in HDL isolated from plasma by polyethyleneglycol precipitation of apoB-containing lipoproteins and measured using the dynamic light scattering (DLS) technique. Although the gender and age distributions agreed with other studies, the mean HDL size reference value was slightly lower than in some other populations. Both HDL size and volume were influenced by gender and varied according to age. HDL size was associated with age and HDL-C (total population); non- white ethnicity and CETP inversely (females); HDL-C and PLTP mass (males). On the other hand, HDL volume was determined only by HDL-C (total population and in both genders) and by PLTP mass (males). The reference values for mean HDL size and volume using the DLS technique were established in an asymptomatic and representative Brazilian population sample, as well as their related metabolic factors. HDL-C was a major determinant of HDL size and volume, which were differently modulated in females and in males.

Interaction Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Dynamic Nonlinear Model.

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

Key Participants Of The Tumor Microenvironment Of The Prostate: An Approach Of The Structural Dynamic Of Cellular Elements And Extracellular Matrix Components During Epithelial-stromal Transition.

Cancer is a multistep process that begins with the transformation of normal epithelial cells and continues with tumor growth, stromal invasion and metastasis. The remodeling of the peritumoral environment is decisive for the onset of tumor invasiveness. This event is dependent on epithelial-stromal interactions, degradation of extracellular matrix components and reorganization of fibrillar components. Our research group has studied in a new proposed rodent model the participation of cellular and molecular components in the prostate microenvironment that contributes to cancer progression. Our group adopted the gerbil Meriones unguiculatus as an alternative experimental model for prostate cancer study. This model has presented significant responses to hormonal treatments and to development of spontaneous and induced neoplasias. The data obtained indicate reorganization of type I collagen fibers and reticular fibers, synthesis of new components such as tenascin and proteoglycans, degradation of basement membrane components and elastic fibers and increased expression of metalloproteinases. Fibroblasts that border the region, apparently participate in the stromal reaction. The roles of each of these events, as well as some signaling molecules, participants of neoplastic progression and factors that promote genetic reprogramming during epithelial-stromal transition are also discussed.

Estudo da distribuição da pressão plantar e do equilibrio corporal em corredores de longa distancia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Treinamento de força e suplementação de creatina : a densidade da carga como estimulo otimizador nos ajustes morfologicos e funcionais

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Testes de desempenho aeróbio relacionados a intensidades de corrida em treinamento e competição para fundistas de alto rendimento = : Aerobic performance tests related to training and competition running intensities for high performance distance runners

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Canoagem velocidade : dinamica das cargas de treinamento no macrociclo e a dinamica da alteração de marcadores funcionais externos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Respostas da frequencia cardiaca e da pressão arterial sistemica as manobras postural passiva e de valsalva, em individuos sedentarios e atletas corredores de longa distancia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

A variação da acuidade visual durante esforços fisicos em atletas com baixa visão

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física