Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience.

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide this service using ensembles of forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used their results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest control services. We assessed how potential richness of pest control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that potential richness of pest control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries that had economies highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries had their economies less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest control providers

Trends in motor vehicle crash mortality in Europe, 1980-2007.

Recent trends (1980-2007) in mortality from road traffic crashes in European countries, and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Japan were reviewed. Data came from the World Health Organisation database. Age-standardised rates, at all ages and at 15-24, 25-64, >=65 years, were computed. Joinpoint regression analyses to evaluate significant changes in trends were performed. In the European Union as a whole rates declined from 20.2 in 1987 to 13.5/100,000 in 2007 in men, and from 6.3 to 3.7/100,000 in women; European Union rates remained lower than USA, but higher than Japanese ones. In 2007, the highest male rates were in Lithuania (36.7/100,000), the Russian Federation (35.2), Ukraine (29.8), and Latvia (28.5), and the lowest ones in the Netherlands (6.2) and Sweden (6.9); the highest female rates were in the Russian Federation (11.3), Lithuania (9.7), Belarus, Latvia, and Ukraine (around 8), and the lowest ones in Switzerland (1.7), the UK, and Nordic countries (around 2). Mortality from motor vehicle crashes declined in northern and western European countries and - though to a lesser extent - in southern European countries, too. Mortality trends were also favourable in the Czech Republic and Poland since the mid 1990's, whereas they were still upwards in Romania and the Russian Federation. No trend was observed in Hungary and Ukraine. Trends were consistent in various age groups considered. Thus, additional urgent and integrated intervention is required to prevent avoidable deaths from motor vehicle crashes, particularly in selected central and eastern European countries.

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Appropriateness of colonoscopy in Europe (EPAGE II). Screening for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: To summarize the published literature on assessment of appropriateness of colonoscopy for screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in asymptomatic individuals without personal history of CRC or polyps, and report appropriateness criteria developed by an expert panel, the 2008 European Panel on the Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, EPAGE II. METHODS: A systematic search of guidelines, systematic reviews, and primary studies regarding colonoscopy for screening for colorectal cancer was performed. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method was applied to develop appropriateness criteria for colonoscopy in these circumstances. RESULTS: Available evidence for CRC screening comes from small case-controlled studies, with heterogeneous results, and from indirect evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on fecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening and studies on flexible sigmoidoscopy screening. Most guidelines recommend screening colonoscopy every 10 years starting at age 50 in average-risk individuals. In individuals with a higher risk of CRC due to family history, there is a consensus that it is appropriate to offer screening colonoscopy at < 50 years. EPAGE II considered screening colonoscopy appropriate above 50 years in average-risk individuals. Panelists deemed screening colonoscopy appropriate for younger patients, with shorter surveillance intervals, where family or personal risk of colorectal cancer is higher. A positive FOBT or the discovery of adenomas at sigmoidoscopy are considered appropriate indications. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the lack of evidence based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs), colonoscopy is recommended by most published guidelines and EPAGE II criteria available online (http://www.epage.ch), as a screening option for CRC in individuals at average risk of CRC, and undisputedly as the main screening tool for CRC in individuals at moderate and high risk of CRC.

Market potentialfor free-cutting steels in Europe

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää tilannetta Euroopan automaattiteräsmarkkinoilla ja sen perusteella arvioida Imatra Steelin mahdollisuuksia kilpailla kyseessä olevilla markkinoilla. Tärkein tavoite oli kokonaismarkkinapotentiaalin arvioiminen Saksan, Ruotsin, Englannin ja Suomen markkinoilla. Lisäksi selvitettiin käytetyt automaattiteräslajit ja mitta-alue, hintataso sekä koneistukseenliittyviä teknisiä yksityiskohtia.Tavoitteena oli myös kartoittaa asenteita ja mielipiteitä mahdollisesta lyijyn käytön kieltämisestä teräksen seosaineena tulevaisuudessa. Paremman kokonaiskuvan saamiseksi analysoitiin myös kilpailutilannetta Euroopassa. Työn teoriakehyksessä tutkittiin teollisuustuotteiden markkinatutkimuksen suorittamisen erityispiirteitä, markkinapotentiaalin määrittämiseen liittyviä käsitteitä ja kilpailija-analyysin suorittamista. Empiirinen tutkimus suoritettiin pääasiassa asiantuntijoiden haastattelujen ja kyselyjen avulla. Haastateltavina oli tukkureita ja loppukäyttäjiä. Kilpailutilanteen kartoittaminen perustuu lähinnä sekundääriseen tietoon, Internet-sivuihin ja myyntikonttoreiden aikaisemmin keräämään tietoon.Automaattiterästen kokonaispotentiaaliksi Euroopassa arvioitiin miljoona tonnia ja suurin osa kaupasta käydään tutkituilla markkina-alueilla. Suurimmat volyymit sijoittuvat pienemmille mitta-alueille, Æ 12 - 50 mm. Markkinoita hallitsee muutama suuri teräksen valmistaja. Imatra Steel kohtuullisen pienenä toimittajana ei pysty kilpailemaan volyymilla ja tuotevalikoimallaan suurten teräsjättien kanssa. Imatra Steelin mahdollinen strategiavaihtoehto olisi yrittää löytää ne kapeat segmentit ja markkinaraot, joilla sen tuotteet jatietotaito tuovat asiakkaalle suurimman mahdollisen hyödyn verrattuna kilpailijoihin.

Evaluation of prenatal diagnosis of associated congenital heart diseases by fetal ultrasonographic examination in Europe.

Ultrasound scans in the mid trimester of pregnancy are now a routine part of antenatal care in most European countries. With the assistance of Registries of Congenital Anomalies a study was undertaken in Europe. The objective of the study was to evaluate prenatal detection of congenital heart defects (CHD) by routine ultrasonographic examination of the fetus. All congenital malformations suspected prenatally and all congenital malformations, including chromosome anomalies, confirmed at birth were identified from the Congenital Malformation Registers, including 20 registers from the following European countries: Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Spain, Switzerland, The Netherlands, UK and Ukrainia. These registries follow the same methodology. The study period was 1996-1998, 709 030 births were covered, and 8126 cases with congenital malformations were registered. If more than one cardiac malformation was present the case was coded as complex cardiac malformation. CHD were subdivided into 'isolated' when only a cardiac malformation was present and 'associated' when at least one other major extra cardiac malformation was present. The associated CHD were subdivided into chromosomal, syndromic non-chromosomal and multiple. The study comprised 761 associated CHD including 282 cases with multiple malformations, 375 cases with chromosomal anomalies and 104 cases with non-chromosomal syndromes. The proportion of prenatal diagnosis of associated CHD varied in relation to the ultrasound screening policies from 17.9% in countries without routine screening (The Netherlands and Denmark) to 46.0% in countries with only one routine fetal scan and 55.6% in countries with two or three routine fetal scans. The prenatal detection rate of chromosomal anomalies was 40.3% (151/375 cases). This rate for recognized syndromes and multiply malformed with CHD was 51.9% (54/104 cases) and 48.6% (137/282 cases), respectively; 150/229 Down syndrome (65.8%) were livebirths. Concerning the syndromic cases, the detection rate of deletion 22q11, situs anomalies and VATER association was 44.4%, 64.7% and 46.6%, respectively. In conclusion, the present study shows large regional variations in the prenatal detection rate of CHD with the highest rates in European regions with three screening scans. Prenatal diagnosis of CHD is significantly higher if associated malformations are present. Cardiac defects affecting the size of the ventricles have the highest detection rate. Mean gestational age at discovery was 20-24 weeks for the majority of associated cardiac defects.

Smoking and life expectancy among HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease and non-AIDS malignancies have become major causes of death among HIV-infected individuals. The relative impact of lifestyle and HIV-related factors are debated. METHODS: We estimated associations of smoking with mortality more than 1 year after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among HIV-infected individuals enrolled in European and North American cohorts. IDUs were excluded. Causes of death were assigned using standardized procedures. We used abridged life tables to estimate life expectancies. Life-years lost to HIV were estimated by comparison with the French background population. RESULTS: Among 17 995 HIV-infected individuals followed for 79 760 person-years, the proportion of smokers was 60%. The mortality rate ratio (MRR) comparing smokers with nonsmokers was 1.94 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.56-2.41]. The MRRs comparing current and previous smokers with never smokers were 1.70 (95% CI 1.23-2.34) and 0.92 (95% CI 0.64-1.34), respectively. Smokers had substantially higher mortality from cardiovascular disease, non-AIDS malignancies than nonsmokers [MRR 6.28 (95% CI 2.19-18.0) and 2.67 (95% CI 1.60-4.46), respectively]. Among 35-year-old HIV-infected men, the loss of life-years associated with smoking and HIV was 7.9 (95% CI 7.1-8.7) and 5.9 (95% CI 4.9-6.9), respectively. The life expectancy of virally suppressed, never-smokers was 43.5 years (95% CI 41.7-45.3), compared with 44.4 years among 35-year-old men in the background population. Excess MRRs/1000 person-years associated with smoking increased from 0.6 (95% CI -1.3 to 2.6) at age 35 to 43.6 (95% CI 37.9-49.3) at age at least 65 years. CONCLUSION: Well treated HIV-infected individuals may lose more life years through smoking than through HIV. Excess mortality associated with smoking increases markedly with age. Therefore, increases in smoking-related mortality can be expected as the treated HIV-infected population ages. Interventions for smoking cessation should be prioritized.