Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

Higher frequency of chromosomal aberrations in ovarian endometriosis compared to extragonadal endometriosis: A possible link to endometrioid adenocarcinoma

Endometriosis may progress to invasive endometrioid adenocarcinoma, particularly in the ovary. Up to now, little is known of the molecular mechanisms possibly involved in the malignant transformation of endometriosis. Therefore, in this study, extragonadal endometriosis (n = 10), ovarian endometriosis without malignancy (n = 10), ovarian endometriosis with direct transition into endometrioid adenocarcinoma (n = 8), and normal endometrium (n = 12) were investigated for numerical chromosomal aberrations by fluorescence in situ hybridization using centromere enumeration probes. The proportions of cells with aneusomies were semiquantitatively assessed. Trisomies 1 and 7, and monosomies 9 and 17 were found in endometriosis, ovarian endometrioid adenocarcinoma, and normal endometrium. The proportions of aneusomic cells were significantly higher in ovarian endometrioid carcinoma compared with ovarian endometriosis (P < 0.001), and in ovarian endometriosis compared with extragonadal endometriosis and normal endometrium (P < 0.001). The data provide new evidence of a common lineage of endometriosis and ovarian endometrioid carcinoma. The higher frequency of chromosomal aberrations in endometrioid carcinoma than in endometriosis may reflect an expansion of aberrant cell clones already present in endometriosis during the progression to cancer. The higher frequency of chromosomal aberrations in ovarian endometriosis than in extragonadal endometriosis suggests a role of the ovarian stromal milieu in the induction of genetic changes, which may eventually lead to invasive cancer.

Allergic rhinitis in patients with asthma: the Swiss LARA (Link Allergic Rhinitis in Asthma) survey

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics of asthma (A) and allergic rhinitis (AR) among asthma patients in primary care practice. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Primary care physicians, pulmonologists, and allergologists were asked to recruit consecutive asthma patients with or without allergic rhinitis from their daily practice. Cross-sectional data on symptoms, severity, treatment and impact on quality of life of A and AR were recorded and examined using descriptive statistics. Patients with and without AR were then compared. RESULTS: 1244 asthma patients were included by 211 physicians. Asthma was controlled in 19%, partially controlled in 27% and not controlled in 54%. Asthma treatment was generally based on inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) with or without long acting beta 2 agonists (78%). A leukotriene receptor antagonist (LTRA) was used by 46% of the patients. Overall, 950 (76%) asthma patients had AR (A + AR) and 294 (24%) did not (A - AR). Compared to patients with A - AR, A + AR patients were generally younger (mean age +/- standard deviation: 42 +/- 16 vs. 50 +/- 19 years, p < 0.001) and fewer used ICS (75% vs. 88%, p < 0.001). LTRA usage was similar in both groups (46% vs. 48%). Asthma was uncontrolled in 53% of A + AR and 57% of A - AR patients. Allergic rhinitis was treated with a mean of 1.9 specific AR medications: antihistamines (77%), nasal steroids (66%) and/or vasoconstrictors (38%), and/or LTRA (42%). Rhinorrhoea, nasal obstruction, or nasal itching were the most frequently reported AR symptoms and the greatest reported degree of impairment was in daily activities/sports (55%). CONCLUSIONS: Allergic rhinitis was more common among younger asthma patients, increased the burden of symptoms and the need for additional medication but was associated with improved asthma control. However, most asthma patients remained suboptimally controlled regardl-ess of concomitant AR.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

RFID Transponders : Link between information and material flows. How reliable are identification procedures?

Along with the growing complexity of logistic chains the demand for transparency of informations has increased. The use of intelligent RFID-Technology offers the possibility to optimize and control all capacities in use, since it enables the identification and tracking of goods alongside the entire supply chain. Every single product can be located at any given time and a multitude of current and historical data can be transferred. The interaction of the flow of material and the flow of information between the various process steps can be optimized by using RFID-Technology since it guarantees that all required data is available at the right time and at the right place. The local accessibility and convertibility of data allows a flexible, decentralised control of logistic systems. As additional advantages of RFID-Components can be considered that they are individually writable and that their identification can be achieved over considerable distances even if there is no intervisibility between tag and reader. The use of RFID-Transponder opens up new potentials regarding process security, reduction of logistic costs or availability of products. These advantages depend on reliability of the identification processes. The undisputed potentials that are made accessible by the use of RFID-Elements can only be beneficial when the informations that are decentralised and attached to goods and loading equipment can be reliably retrieved at the required points. The communication between tag and reader can be influenced by different materials such as metal, that can disturbed or complicate the radio contact. The communications reliability is subject of various tests and experiments that analyse the effects of different filling materials as well as different alignments of tags on the loading equipment.

A reliable, traffic-adaptive and energy-efficient link layer for wireless sensor networks

The paper presents a link layer stack for wireless sensor networks, which consists of the Burst-aware Energy-efficient Adaptive Medium access control (BEAM) and the Hop-to-Hop Reliability (H2HR) protocol. BEAM can operate with short beacons to announce data transmissions or include data within the beacons. Duty cycles can be adapted by a traffic prediction mechanism indicating pending packets destined for a node and by estimating its wake-up times. H2HR takes advantage of information provided by BEAM such as neighbour information and transmission information to perform per-hop congestion control. We justify the design decisions by measurements in a real-world wireless sensor network testbed and compare the performance with other link layer protocols.

Traffic-Adaptive and Link-Quality-Aware Communication in Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper is a summary of the main contribu- tions of the PhD thesis published in [1]. The main research contributions of the thesis are driven by the research question how to design simple, yet efficient and robust run-time adaptive resource allocation schemes within the commu- nication stack of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) nodes. The thesis addresses several problem domains with con- tributions on different layers of the WSN communication stack. The main contributions can be summarized as follows: First, a a novel run-time adaptive MAC protocol is intro- duced, which stepwise allocates the power-hungry radio interface in an on-demand manner when the encountered traffic load requires it. Second, the thesis outlines a metho- dology for robust, reliable and accurate software-based energy-estimation, which is calculated at network run- time on the sensor node itself. Third, the thesis evaluates several Forward Error Correction (FEC) strategies to adap- tively allocate the correctional power of Error Correcting Codes (ECCs) to cope with timely and spatially variable bit error rates. Fourth, in the context of TCP-based communi- cations in WSNs, the thesis evaluates distributed caching and local retransmission strategies to overcome the perfor- mance degrading effects of packet corruption and trans- mission failures when transmitting data over multiple hops. The performance of all developed protocols are eval- uated on a self-developed real-world WSN testbed and achieve superior performance over selected existing ap- proaches, especially where traffic load and channel condi- tions are suspect to rapid variations over time.

A new methodological approach for studying intergenerational mobility with an application to Swiss data

Despite the widespread interest in the topic and a vast international literature, very little is known about the development of intergenerational mobility in Switzerland. Based on a new harmonized database for Switzerland (comprising various surveys such as different waves of the ISSP, EVS, and the ESS), we provide a systematic account of changes in the link between social origin and destination over time (covering birth cohorts from around 1935 to 1980). We analyze effects of parental education and class on own educational achievement and social class for both men and women, using a refined variant of the methodological approach proposed by Jann and Combet (2012). The approach is based on the concept of proportional reduction of error (PRE) and features a number of advantages over more traditional approaches. For example, it provides smooth estimates of changes in social mobility that have a clear interpretation and it can easily incorporate control variables and multiple dimensions of parental characteristics. To evaluate the validity of our approach, we employ the oft-used log-multiplicative layer effect (a.k.a Unidiff) model (Xie 1992, Erikson and Goldthorpe 1992) as a benchmark. Results indicate that our approach performs well and produces qualitatively similar findings as Xie's model. For both men and women, effects of social origin initially decreased, but then, towards the end of the observation period, increased again. This u-shaped pattern, which can be observed with respect to both education and class, appears to be more pronounced for women than for men.

Privacy Preserving Probabilistic Record Linkage (P3RL): a novel method for linking existing health-related data and maintaining participant confidentiality.

BACKGROUND Record linkage of existing individual health care data is an efficient way to answer important epidemiological research questions. Reuse of individual health-related data faces several problems: Either a unique personal identifier, like social security number, is not available or non-unique person identifiable information, like names, are privacy protected and cannot be accessed. A solution to protect privacy in probabilistic record linkages is to encrypt these sensitive information. Unfortunately, encrypted hash codes of two names differ completely if the plain names differ only by a single character. Therefore, standard encryption methods cannot be applied. To overcome these challenges, we developed the Privacy Preserving Probabilistic Record Linkage (P3RL) method. METHODS In this Privacy Preserving Probabilistic Record Linkage method we apply a three-party protocol, with two sites collecting individual data and an independent trusted linkage center as the third partner. Our method consists of three main steps: pre-processing, encryption and probabilistic record linkage. Data pre-processing and encryption are done at the sites by local personnel. To guarantee similar quality and format of variables and identical encryption procedure at each site, the linkage center generates semi-automated pre-processing and encryption templates. To retrieve information (i.e. data structure) for the creation of templates without ever accessing plain person identifiable information, we introduced a novel method of data masking. Sensitive string variables are encrypted using Bloom filters, which enables calculation of similarity coefficients. For date variables, we developed special encryption procedures to handle the most common date errors. The linkage center performs probabilistic record linkage with encrypted person identifiable information and plain non-sensitive variables. RESULTS In this paper we describe step by step how to link existing health-related data using encryption methods to preserve privacy of persons in the study. CONCLUSION Privacy Preserving Probabilistic Record linkage expands record linkage facilities in settings where a unique identifier is unavailable and/or regulations restrict access to the non-unique person identifiable information needed to link existing health-related data sets. Automated pre-processing and encryption fully protect sensitive information ensuring participant confidentiality. This method is suitable not just for epidemiological research but also for any setting with similar challenges.

A missing link between facilitation and plant species coexistence: nurses benefit generally rare species more than common ones

1. Positive interactions among plants can increase species richness by relaxing environmental filters and providing more heterogeneous environments. However, it is not known if facilitation could affect coexistence through other mechanisms. Most studies on plant coexistence focus on negative frequency-dependent mechanisms (decreasing the abundance of common species); here, we test if facilitation can enhance coexistence by giving species an advantage when rare. 2. To test our hypothesis, we used a global data set from drylands and alpine environments and measured the intensity of facilitation (based on co-occurrences with nurse plants) for 48 species present in at least 4 different sites and with a range of abundances in the field. We compared these results with the degree of facilitation experienced by species which are globally rare or common (according to the IUCN Red List), and with a larger data base including over 1200 co-occurrences of target species with their nurses. 3. Facilitation was stronger for rare species (i.e. those having lower local abundances or considered endangered by the IUCN) than for common species, and strongly decreased with the abundance of the facilitated species. These results hold after accounting for the distance of each species from its ecological optimum (i.e. the degree of functional stress it experiences). 4. Synthesis. Our results highlight that nurse plants not only increase the number of species able to colonize a given site, but may also promote species coexistence by preventing the local extinction of rare species. Our findings illustrate the role that nurse plants play in conserving endangered species and link the relationship between facilitation and diversity with coexistence theory. As such, they provide further mechanistic understanding on how facilitation maintains plant diversity.

Measuring the promise of open data: Development of the Impact Monitoring Framework

It is a challenge to measure the impact of releasing data to the public since the effects may not be directly linked to particular open data activities or substantial impact may only occur several years after publishing the data. This paper proposes a framework to assess the impact of releasing open data by applying the Social Return on Investment (SROI) approach. SROI was developed for organizations intended to generate social and environmental benefits thus fitting the purpose of most open data initiatives. We link the four steps of SROI (input, output, outcome, impact) with the 14 high-value data categories of the G8 Open Data Charter to create a matrix of open data examples, activities, and impacts in each of the data categories. This Impact Monitoring Framework helps data providers to navigate the impact space of open data laying out the conceptual basis for further research.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Association of periodontal disease with sex hormones levels among men; an analysis of NHANES III data

Background. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of periodontal disease with sex hormones. If periodontal disease is associated with abnormal levels of sex hormones this may indicate a link between periodontal disease and prostate cancer. ^ Methods. All participants were derived from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination survey (NHANES III) data. For the purpose of our study, serum samples for hormones measurements such as testosterone, free testosterone, estradiol, free estradiol and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and periodontal examination data were available for 1,101 of these men. ^ Results. After adjusting for known risk factors, periodontal disease was significantly associated with sex hormones as testosterone, free testosterone, estradiol and free estradiol. The association of periodontal disease and sex hormone levels were not significantly different between ethnicity groups. ^ Discussion. The results indicate the need for further study of periodontal disease and serum levels of testosterone, free testosterone, estradiol and free estradiol in men.^