Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

Collaborative learning from distributed places and spaces: Exploring the use of virtual collaborative tools for local and global student teamwork projects

Educating responsive graduates. Graduate competencies include reliability, communication skills and ability to work in teams. Students using Collaborative technologies adapt to a new working environment, working in teams and using collaborative technologies for learning. Collaborative Technologies were used not simply for delivery of learning but innovatively to supplement and enrich research-based learning, providing a space for active engagement and interaction with resources and team. This promotes the development of responsive ‘intellectual producers’, able to effectively communicate, collaborate and negotiate in complex work environments. Exploiting technologies. Students use ‘new’ technologies to work collaboratively, allowing them to experience the reality of distributed workplaces incorporating both flexibility and ‘real’ time responsiveness. Students are responsible and accountable for individual and group work contributions in a highly transparent and readily accessible workspace. This experience provides a model of an effective learning tool. Navigating uncertainty and complexity. Collaborative technologies allows students to develop critical thinking and reflective skills as they develop a group product. In this forum students build resilience by taking ownership and managing group work, and navigating the uncertainties and complexities of group dynamics as they constructively and professionally engage in team dialogue and learn to focus on the goal of the team task.

Infinite Dimensional Slow Modulations In A Delayed Model For Orthogonal Cutting Vibrations

We apply the method of multiple scales (MMS) to a well known model of regenerative cutting vibrations in the large delay regime. By ``large'' we mean the delay is much larger than the time scale of typical cutting tool oscillations. The MMS upto second order for such systems has been developed recently, and is applied here to study tool dynamics in the large delay regime. The second order analysis is found to be much more accurate than first order analysis. Numerical integration of the MMS slow flow is much faster than for the original equation, yet shows excellent accuracy. The main advantage of the present analysis is that infinite dimensional dynamics is retained in the slow flow, while the more usual center manifold reduction gives a planar phase space. Lower-dimensional dynamical features, such as Hopf bifurcations and families of periodic solutions, are also captured by the MMS. Finally, the strong sensitivity of the dynamics to small changes in parameter values is seen clearly.

Development of molecular tools for the improvement of transgene expression in sugar cane

Biotechnology has the potential to improve sugar cane, one of the world's major crops for food and fuel. This research describes the detailed characterisation of introns and their potential for enhancing transgene expression in sugar cane via intron-mediated enhancement (IME). IME is a phenomenon whereby an intron enhances gene expression from a promoter. Current knowledge on the mechanism of IME or its potential for enhancing gene expression in sugar cane is limited. A better understanding of the factors responsible for IME will help develop new molecular tools that facilitate high levels of constitutive and tissue-specific gene expression in this crop.

Pedagogical tools designed to promote engagement and active learning in the biomedical sciences and allied health disciplines

Perceiving students, science students especially, as mere consumers of facts and information belies the importance of a need to engage them with the principles underlying those facts and is counter-intuitive to the facilitation of knowledge and understanding. Traditional didactic lecture approaches need a re-think if student classroom engagement and active learning are to be valued over fact memorisation and fact recall. In our undergraduate biomedical science programs across Years 1, 2 and 3 in the Faculty of Health at QUT, we have developed an authentic learning model with an embedded suite of pedagogical strategies that foster classroom engagement and allow for active learning in the sub-discipline area of medical bacteriology. The suite of pedagogical tools we have developed have been designed to enable their translation, with appropriate fine-tuning, to most biomedical and allied health discipline teaching and learning contexts. Indeed, aspects of the pedagogy have been successfully translated to the nursing microbiology study stream at QUT. The aims underpinning the pedagogy are for our students to: (1) Connect scientific theory with scientific practice in a more direct and authentic way, (2) Construct factual knowledge and facilitate a deeper understanding, and (3) Develop and refine their higher order flexible thinking and problem solving skills, both semi-independently and independently. The mindset and role of the teaching staff is critical to this approach since for the strategy to be successful tertiary teachers need to abandon traditional instructional modalities based on one-way information delivery. Face-to-face classroom interactions between students and lecturer enable realisation of pedagogical aims (1), (2) and (3). The strategy we have adopted encourages teachers to view themselves more as expert guides in what is very much a student-focused process of scientific exploration and learning. Specific pedagogical strategies embedded in the authentic learning model we have developed include: (i) interactive lecture-tutorial hybrids or lectorials featuring teacher role-plays as well as class-level question-and-answer sessions, (ii) inclusion of “dry” laboratory activities during lectorials to prepare students for the wet laboratory to follow, (iii) real-world problem-solving exercises conducted during both lectorials and wet laboratory sessions, and (iv) designing class activities and formative assessments that probe a student’s higher order flexible thinking skills. Flexible thinking in this context encompasses analytical, critical, deductive, scientific and professional thinking modes. The strategic approach outlined above is designed to provide multiple opportunities for students to apply principles flexibly according to a given situation or context, to adapt methods of inquiry strategically, to go beyond mechanical application of formulaic approaches, and to as much as possible self-appraise their own thinking and problem solving. The pedagogical tools have been developed within both workplace (real world) and theoretical frameworks. The philosophical core of the pedagogy is a coherent pathway of teaching and learning which we, and many of our students, believe is more conducive to student engagement and active learning in the classroom. Qualitative and quantitative data derived from online and hardcopy evaluations, solicited and unsolicited student and graduate feedback, anecdotal evidence as well as peer review indicate that: (i) our students are engaging with the pedagogy, (ii) a constructivist, authentic-learning approach promotes active learning, and (iii) students are better prepared for workplace transition.

Molecular tools for studying puberty in the grey mullet, Mugil cephalus: cloning of cDNAs that regulate reproductive function

The cDNAs coding for the brain GnRHs (AY373449-51), pituitary GH, SL and PRL, and liver IGFs (AY427954-5) were isolated. Partial cDNA sequences of the brain (Cyp19b) and gonadal (Cyp19a) aromatases have also been obtained. These tools would be utilized to study the endocrine regulation of puberty in the grey mullet.

GIS-based tools for management of pine plantations, Queensland, Australia

Two examples of GIS-based multiple-criteria evaluations of plantation forests are presented. These desktop assessments use available topographical, geological and pedological information to establish the risk of occurrence of certain environmentally detrimental processes. The first case study is concerned with the risk that chemical additives (i.e. simazine) applied within the forestry landscape may reach the drainage system. The second case study assesses the vulnerability of forested areas to landslides. The subject of the first multiple-criteria evaluation (MCE) was a 4 km2 logging area, which had been recently site-prepared for a Pinus plantation. The criteria considered relevant to the assessment were proximity to creeks, slope, soil depth to the restrictive layer (i.e. potential depth to a perched water table) and soil erodability (based on clay content). The output of the MCE was in accordance with field observations, showing that this approach has the potential to provide management support by highlighting areas vulnerable to waterlogging, which in turn can trigger overland flow and export of pollutants to the local stream network. The subject of the second evaluation was an Araucaria plantation which is prone to landslips during heavy rain. The parameters included in the assessment were drainage system, the slope of the terrain and geological features such as rocks and structures. A good correlation between the MCE results and field observations was found, suggesting that this GIS approach is useful for the assessment of natural hazards. Multiple-criteria evaluations are highly flexible as they can be designed in either vector or raster format, depending on the type of available data. Although tested on specific areas, the MCEs presented here can be easily used elsewhere and assist both management intervention and the protection of the adjacent environment by assessing the vulnerability of the forest landscape to either introduced chemicals or natural hazards.

New tools for management of phosphine resistance

Phosphine is the primary fumigant used to protect the majority of the world' s grain and a variety of other stored commodities from insect pests. Phosphine is playing an increasingly important role in the protection of commodities for two primary reasons. Firstly, use of the alternative fumigant, methyl bromide, has been sharply curtailed and is tightly regulated due to its role in ozone depletion, and secondly, consumers are becoming increasingly intolerant of contact pesticides. Niche alternatives to phosphine exist, but they suffer from a range of factors that limit their use, including: 1) Limited commercial adoption due to expense or slow mode of action; 2) Poor efficacy due to low toxicity, rapid sorption, limited volatility or high density; 3) Public health concerns due to toxicity to handlers or nearby residents, as well as risk of explosion; 4) Poor consumer acceptance due to toxic residues or smell. These same factors limit the prospects of quickly identifying and deploying a new fumigant. Given that resistance toward phosphine is increasing among insect pests, improved monitoring and management of resistance is a priority. Knowledge of the mode of action of phosphine as well as the mechanisms of resistance may also greatly reduce the effort and expense of identifying synergists or novel replacement compounds.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

Scoping genetic tools, their limitations and applications for wild fisheries management

FRDC has commissioned a review of the role that existing and future genetic technologies may play in addressing critical challenges facing the exploitation of wild fisheries. Wild fisheries management has been assisted by genetic research for over 50 years and in Australia, this research has been largely funded by FRDC. Both fisheries management and the methods of genetic analysis have changed significantly during this time. Given these dynamics, as well as perceptions that communication between fisheries managers and geneticists has been poor in some cases, there is a strong need to reassess the ways in which genetic research can contribute to fisheries and for all stakeholders to critically examine each other's needs and capabilities.

Two Tools for Interprocess Communication in Distributed Data-Flow Systems

Abstract is not available.

Six unidentified, youngest members of a traditional Küfer guild posing in front of their wine barrels holding the tools of their trade and glasses of wine; Bad Dürkheim Portraits Men

Handwritten description on verso addressed to Herr u. Frau Ernst Weill