Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

Cutting edge: thymic NK cells develop independently from T cell precursors.

Although NK cells in the mouse are thought to develop in the bone marrow, a small population of NK cells in the thymus has been shown to derive from a GATA3-dependent pathway. Characteristically, thymic NK cells express CD127 and few Ly49 molecules and lack CD11b. Because these NK cells develop in the thymus, the question of their relationship to the T cell lineage has been raised. Using several different mouse models, we find that unlike T cells, thymic NK cells are not the progeny of Rorc-expressing progenitors and do not express Rag2 or rearrange the TCRγ locus. We further demonstrate that thymic NK cells develop independently of the Notch signaling pathway, supporting the idea that thymic NK cells represent bona fide NK cells that can develop independently of all T cell precursors.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

The genome of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex echinatior suggests key adaptations to advanced social life and fungus farming.

We present a high-quality (>100× depth) Illumina genome sequence of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex echinatior, a model species for symbiosis and reproductive conflict studies. We compare this genome with three previously sequenced genomes of ants from different subfamilies and focus our analyses on aspects of the genome likely to be associated with known evolutionary changes. The first is the specialized fungal diet of A. echinatior, where we find gene loss in the ant's arginine synthesis pathway, loss of detoxification genes, and expansion of a group of peptidase proteins. One of these is a unique ant-derived contribution to the fecal fluid, which otherwise consists of "garden manuring" fungal enzymes that are unaffected by ant digestion. The second is multiple mating of queens and ejaculate competition, which may be associated with a greatly expanded nardilysin-like peptidase gene family. The third is sex determination, where we could identify only a single homolog of the feminizer gene. As other ants and the honeybee have duplications of this gene, we hypothesize that this may partly explain the frequent production of diploid male larvae in A. echinatior. The fourth is the evolution of eusociality, where we find a highly conserved ant-specific profile of neuropeptide genes that may be related to caste determination. These first analyses of the A. echinatior genome indicate that considerable genetic changes are likely to have accompanied the transition from hunter-gathering to agricultural food production 50 million years ago, and the transition from single to multiple queen mating 10 million years ago.

Emigration of a colony of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex heyeri Forel (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

Emigration of a colony of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex heyeri Forel (Hymenoptera, Formicidae). Colony migration is a poorly studied phenomenon in leaf-cutting ants. Here we report on the emigration of a colony of the leaf-cutting ant A. heyeri in Brazil. The colony emigrated to a new location 47.4 m away from the original nest site, possibly because it had undergone considerable stress due to competitive interactions with a colony of Acromyrmex crassispinus.

Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

Energy substrate used by workers of leaf-cutting ants during nest excavation

Energy substrate used by workers of leaf-cutting ants during nest excavation. In this study we aimed to ascertain whether leaf-cutting ant workers lose body reserves (fat or sugars) as a function of nest excavation. For each treatment, we isolated 10 workers of Atta sexdens into two experimental groups, Control (C- without excavation) and Soil (S- with excavation), which were kept for different time intervals (0, 24, 48 or 72 hours), totaling 700 tested workers. We then determined the concentration of soluble carbohydrates and total lipid content in them. The total carbohydrates were determined colorimetrically, based on the reaction between carbohydrates and sulfuric acid-phenol. For determination of lipids, the insects were immersed in organic solvent until they reached a constant weight. Our results showed that carbohydrates are consumed during nest excavation activities. In the experimental groups S24, S48 and S72, there was an average reduction of 5.82 (20.42%), 14.31 (44.96%) and 13.27 (43.96%) µ.mg-1 in soluble sugar when compared with the experimental groups that did not excavate. Furthermore, the lipids were not used during this activity. With respect to dry mass of the workers, their values were C0 = 8%, C24 = 10.4%, C48 = 9.2%, C72 = 10%, S24 = 9.2%, S48 = 8.7% and S72 = 8.5%. Our results show experimentally that the source of energy for nest excavation is carbohydrates, whereas lipids are conserved for other activities.

Energetic cost of digging behavior in workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens (Fabricius)

Energetic cost of digging behavior in workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens (Fabricius). During nest excavation, leaf-cutting ant workers undergo reduction in their body reserve, particularly carbohydrates. In order to estimate the energetic cost of digging, groups of 30 workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens were sealed in a hermetic chamber for 24, 48 and 72 hours, with and without soil for digging, and had the CO2 concentration measured using respirometric chambers as well as volume of soil excavated (g). As expected, the worker groups that carried out soil excavation expelled more carbon dioxide than the groups that did not excavate. Therefore, a worker with body mass of 9.65 ± 1.50 mg dug in average 0.85 ± 0.27 g of soil for 24 hours, consuming ca. 0.58 ± 0.23 J. In this study, we calculate that the energetic cost of excavation per worker per day in the experimental set-up was ca. 0.58 J.

Protein content of leaf-cutting ant queens before the nuptial flight and during the post-claustral phase

Protein content of leaf-cutting ant queens before the nuptial flight and during the post-claustral phase. This study evaluated the crude protein content of queens of Atta sexdens before the nuptial flight and after the claustral phase in laboratory and field colonies. The hypothesis was that protein is used for survival of the queen and for early colony growth during the claustral phase. Additionally, the nest morphology, live biomass and adult population of field colonies were evaluated. Crude protein was determined by digestion of the organic material with sulfuric acid at high temperatures. The mean crude protein content was 123.23 ± 11.20 mg for females before the nuptial flight and 70.44 ± 12.21 mg for laboratory-reared queens after the claustral phase. The post-claustral crude protein content of field-collected queen was 55.90 ± 9.18 mg. With respect to the loss of crude protein as a function of duration of the claustral phase, laboratory-reared queens lost 52.79 mg and field-collected queens lost 67.33 mg compared to females before the nuptial flight. A positive linear correlation was observed between the weight of field-collected queens (256.4 ± 36.3 mg) and colony biomass (13.02 ± 9.12 g), but there was no correlation between biomass and nest depth (13.11 ± 3.82 cm). As expected, the present results support the hypothesis that protein is used for survival of the queen and for early colony growth, as demonstrated by the reduction in crude protein content as a function of duration of the claustral phase. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide data of the dynamics of protein reserves in leaf-cutting ant queens during the claustral phase.

Dynamics of the restoration of physical trails in the grass-cutting ant Atta capiguara (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

ABSTRACT Dynamics of the restoration of physical trails in the grass-cutting ant Atta capiguara. Leaf-cutting ants of the genus Atta build long physical trails by cutting the vegetation growing on the soil surface and removing the small objects they find across their path. Little is known on the dynamics of trail construction in these ants. How much time do they need to build a trail? To answer this question we selected six trails belonging to two different nests of A. capiguara and removed on each trail a block of soil of 20 cm × 15 cm that included a portion of the physical trail. This block was then replaced by a new block of the same size that was removed in the pasture near the trail and that was uniformly covered by the same type of vegetation as that found on the block of soil that was removed. The time required to restore the trail was then evaluated by the length of the grass blades found along the former location of the trail. The results show that ants rapidly restore the portion of the physical trail that was interrupted, which suggests that they could also do the same after their trails have been recolonized by the vegetation.

Speed Limit Questions? Here’s Your Answer, July 6, 2005

Iowa’s speed regulations are based on the same basic speed law that is used in all 50 states: “Any person driving a motor vehicle on a highway shall drive the same at a careful and prudent speed not greater than nor less than is reasonable and proper, having due regard to the traffic, surface, and width of the highway and of any other conditions then existing, and no person shall drive any vehicle upon a highway at a speed greater than will permit the person to bring it to a stop within the assured clear distance ahead, such driver having the right to assume, however, that all persons using said highway will observe the law.” Statutory limits are based on the concept that uniform categories of highways can be traveled safely at certain preset maximum speeds under ideal conditions. Whether the speed limit is posted or unposted, drivers should reduce their speed below these values in poor weather, heavy traffic, and under other potentially hazardous conditions.

Determination of sea surface salinity and wind speed by L-band microwave radiometry from a fixed platform

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture andOcean Salinity (SMOS) mission aims at obtaining global maps ofsoil moisture and sea surface salinity from space for large-scale andclimatic studies. It uses an L-band (1400–1427 MHz) MicrowaveInterferometric Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis to measurebrightness temperature of the earth’s surface at horizontal andvertical polarizations ( h and v). These two parameters will beused together to retrieve the geophysical parameters. The retrievalof salinity is a complex process that requires the knowledge ofother environmental information and an accurate processing ofthe radiometer measurements. Here, we present recent resultsobtained from several studies and field experiments that were partof the SMOS mission, and highlight the issues still to be solved.

Cutting edge: cyclic polypeptide and aminoglycoside antibiotics trigger IL-1β secretion by activating the NLRP3 inflammasome.

Clinical use of antibiotics is based on their capacity to inhibit bacterial growth via bacteriostatic or bacteriocidal effects. In this article, we show that the aminoglycoside antibiotic neomycin, the cyclic lipopeptide antibiotic polymyxin B, and the cyclic peptide antibiotics gramicidin and tyrothricin can induce IL-1β secretion in bone marrow dendritic cells and macrophages. LPS priming was required to trigger the transcription and translation of pro-IL-1β but was independent of TNFR or IL-1R signaling. All four antibiotics required the NLRP3 inflammasome, the adaptor ASC, and caspase-1 activation to secrete IL-1β, a process that depended on potassium efflux but was independent of P2X7 receptor. All four antibiotics induced neutrophil influx into the peritoneal cavity of mice, which required NLRP3 only in the case of polymyxin B. Together, certain antibiotics have the potential to directly activate innate immunity of the host.

Dispersal probability distributions and the wave-front speed problem

The speed and width of front solutions to reaction-dispersal models are analyzed both analytically and numerically. We perform our analysis for Laplace and Gaussian distribution kernels, both for delayed and nondelayed models. The results are discussed in terms of the characteristic parameters of the models