Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the Current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.

Consistency of FDG-PET Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness in Initial Staging of Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma Across Jurisdictions

Introduction: Two hundred ten patients with newly diagnosed Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) were consecutively enrolled in this prospective trial to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fluorine-18 ((18)F)-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scan in initial staging of patients with HL. Methods: All 210 patients were staged with conventional clinical staging (CCS) methods, including computed tomography (CT), bone marrow biopsy (BMB), and laboratory tests. Patients were also submitted to metabolic staging (MS) with whole-body FDG-PET scan before the beginning of treatment. A standard of reference for staging was determined with all staging procedures, histologic examination, and follow-up examinations. The accuracy of the CCS was compared with the MS. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for both strategies. Results: In the 210 patients with HL, the sensitivity for initial staging of FDG-PET was higher than that of CT and BMB in initial staging (97.9% vs. 87.3%; P < .001 and 94.2% vs. 71.4%, P < 0.003, respectively). The incorporation of FDG-PET in the staging procedure upstaged disease in 50 (24%) patients and downstaged disease in 17 (8%) patients. Changes in treatment would be seen in 32 (15%) patients. Cumulative cost for staging procedures was $3751/patient for CCS compared to $5081 for CCS + PET and $4588 for PET/CT. The ICER of PET/CT strategy was $16,215 per patient with modified treatment. PET/CT costs at the beginning and end of treatment would increase total costs of HL staging and first-line treatment by only 2%. Conclusion: FDG-PET is more accurate than CT and BMB in HL staging. Given observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost-effective in the public health care program in Brazil.

Cost Effectiveness of Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With Hodgkin`s Lymphoma in Unconfirmed Complete Remission or Partial Remission After First-Line Therapy

Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

Right adolescent idiopathic thoracic curve (Lenke 1 A and B): does cost of instrumentation and implant density improve radiographic and cosmetic parameters?

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) there has been a shift towards increasing the number of implants and pedicle screws, which has not been proven to improve cosmetic correction. To evaluate if increasing cost of instrumentation correlates with cosmetic correction using clinical photographs. 58 Lenke 1A and B cases from a multicenter AIS database with at least 3 months follow-up of clinical photographs were used for analysis. Cosmetic parameters on PA and forward bending photographs included angular measurements of trunk shift, shoulder balance, rib hump, and ratio measurements of waist line asymmetry. Pre-op and follow-up X-rays were measured for coronal and sagittal deformity parameters. Cost density was calculated by dividing the total cost of instrumentation by the number of vertebrae being fused. Linear regression and spearman`s correlation were used to correlate cost density to X-ray and photo outcomes. Three independent observers verified radiographic and cosmetic parameters for inter/interobserver variability analysis. Average pre-op Cobb angle and instrumented correction were 54A degrees (SD 12.5) and 59% (SD 25) respectively. The average number of vertebrae fused was 10 (SD 1.9). The total cost of spinal instrumentation ranged from $6,769 to $21,274 (Mean $12,662, SD $3,858). There was a weak positive and statistically significant correlation between Cobb angle correction and cost density (r = 0.33, p = 0.01), and no correlation between Cobb angle correction of the uninstrumented lumbar spine and cost density (r = 0.15, p = 0.26). There was no significant correlation between all sagittal X-ray measurements or any of the photo parameters and cost density. There was good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability of all photographic parameters based on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.74-0.98). Our method used to measure cosmesis had good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability, and may be an effective tool to objectively assess cosmesis from photographs. Since increasing cost density only improves mildly the Cobb angle correction of the main thoracic curve and not the correction of the uninstrumented spine or any of the cosmetic parameters, one should consider the cost of increasing implant density in Lenke 1A and B curves. In the area of rationalization of health care expenses, this study demonstrates that increasing the number of implants does not improve any relevant cosmetic or radiographic outcomes.

Error in body weight estimation leads to inadequate parenteral anticoagulation

Parenteral anticoagulation is a cornerstone in the management of venous and arterial thrombosis. Unfractionated heparin has a wide dose/response relationship, requiring frequent and troublesome laboratorial follow-up. Because of all these factors, low-molecular-weight heparin use has been increasing. Inadequate dosage has been pointed out as a potential problem because the use of subjectively estimated weight instead of real measured weight is common practice in the emergency department (ED). To evaluate the impact of inadequate weight estimation on enoxaparin dosage, we investigated the adequacy of anticoagulation of patients in a tertiary ED where subjective weight estimation is common practice. We obtained the estimated, informed, and measured weight of 28 patients in need of parenteral anticoagulation. Basal and steady-state (after the second subcutaneous shot of enoxaparin) anti-Xa activity was obtained as a measure of adequate anticoagulation. The patients were divided into 2 groups according the anticoagulation adequacy. From the 28 patients enrolled, 75% (group 1, n = 21) received at least 0.9 mg/kg per dose BID and 25% (group 2, n = 7) received less than 0.9 mg/kg per dose BID of enoxaparin. Only 4 (14.3%) of all patients had anti-Xa activity less than the inferior limit of the therapeutic range (<0.5 UI/mL), all of them from group 2. In conclusion, when weight estimation was used to determine the enoxaparin dosage, 25% of the patients were inadequately anticoagulated (anti-Xa activity <0.5 UI/mL) during the initial crucial phase of treatment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Food energy content influences food portion size estimation by nutrition students

Background: Food portion size estimation involves a complex mental process that may influence food consumption evaluation. Knowing the variables that influence this process can improve the accuracy of dietary assessment. The present study aimed to evaluate the ability of nutrition students to estimate food portions in usual meals and relate food energy content with errors in food portion size estimation. Methods: Seventy-eight nutrition students, who had already studied food energy content, participated in this cross-sectional study on the estimation of food portions, organised into four meals. The participants estimated the quantity of each food, in grams or millilitres, with the food in view. Estimation errors were quantified, and their magnitude were evaluated. Estimated quantities (EQ) lower than 90% and higher than 110% of the weighed quantity (WQ) were considered to represent underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Correlation between food energy content and error on estimation was analysed by the Spearman correlation, and comparison between the mean EQ and WQ was accomplished by means of the Wilcoxon signed rank test (P < 0.05). Results: A low percentage of estimates (18.5%) were considered accurate (+/- 10% of the actual weight). The most frequently underestimated food items were cauliflower, lettuce, apple and papaya; the most often overestimated items were milk, margarine and sugar. A significant positive correlation between food energy density and estimation was found (r = 0.8166; P = 0.0002). Conclusions: The results obtained in the present study revealed a low percentage of acceptable estimations of food portion size by nutrition students, with trends toward overestimation of high-energy food items and underestimation of low-energy items.

Detection of Clonal Immunoglobulin and T-Cell Receptor Gene Rearrangements in Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Using a Low-Cost PCR Strategy

Background Imunoglobulin (Ig) and T cell receptor (TCR) gene rearrangements function as specific markers for minimal residual disease (MRD) which is one of the best predictors of outcome in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) We recently reported on the prognostic value of MRD during the induction of remission through a simplified PCR method Here we report on gene rearrangement frequencies and offer guidelines for the application of the technique Procedure Two hundred thirty three children had DNA extracted from bone marrow Ig and TCR gene rearrangements were amplified using consensus primers and conventional PCR PCR products were submitted to homo/heteroduplex analysis A computer program was designed to define combinations of targets for clonal detection using a minimum set of primers and reactions Results At least one clonal marker could be detected in 98% of the patients and two markers in approximately 80% The most commonly rear ringed genes in precursor B cell ALL were IgH (75%) TCRD (59%) IgK (55%), and TCRG (54%) The most commonly rearranged genes for TALL were TCRG (100%) and TCRD (24%) The sensitivity of primers was limited to the detection of 1 leukemic cell among 100 normal cells Conclusions We propose that eight PCR reactions per ALL subtype would allow for the detection of two markers in most cases In addition these reactions ire suitable for MRD monitoring especially when aiming the selection of patients with high MRD levels (>= 10(-2)) at the end of induction therapy Such an approach would be very useful in centers with limited financial resources Pediatr Blood Cancer 2010 55 1278-1286 (C) 2010 Wiley Liss Inc

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.