Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Behavioral assumptions and management ability

The paper explores the consequences that relying on different behavioral assumptions intraining managers may have on their future performance. We argue that training with anemphasis on the standard assumptions used in economics (rationality and self-interest) is goodfor technical posts but may also lead future managers to rely excessively on rational and explicitsafeguarding, crowding out instinctive relational heuristics and signaling a bad human type topotential partners. In contrast, human assumptions used in management theories, because oftheir diverse, implicit and even contradictory nature, do not conflict with the innate set ofcooperative tools and may provide a good training ground for such tools. We present tentativeconfirmatory evidence by examining how the weight given to behavioral assumptions in the corecourses of the top 100 business schools influences the average salaries of their MBA graduates.Controlling for the self-selected average quality of their students and some other schools characteristics, average salaries are seen to be significantly greater for schools whose core MBAcourses contain a higher proportion of management courses as opposed to courses based oneconomics or technical disciplines.

Combining heat stress and moderate hypoxia reduces cycling time to exhaustion without modifying neuromuscular fatigue characteristics.

PURPOSE: This study investigated the isolated and combined effects of heat [temperate (22 °C/30 % rH) vs. hot (35 °C/40 % rH)] and hypoxia [sea level (FiO2 0.21) vs. moderate altitude (FiO2 0.15)] on exercise capacity and neuromuscular fatigue characteristics. METHODS: Eleven physically active subjects cycled to exhaustion at constant workload (66 % of the power output associated with their maximal oxygen uptake in temperate conditions) in four different environmental conditions [temperate/sea level (control), hot/sea level (hot), temperate/moderate altitude (hypoxia) and hot/moderate altitude (hot + hypoxia)]. Torque and electromyography (EMG) responses following electrical stimulation of the tibial nerve (plantar-flexion; soleus) were recorded before and 5 min after exercise. RESULTS: Time to exhaustion was reduced (P < 0.05) in hot (-35 ± 15 %) or hypoxia (-36 ± 14 %) compared to control (61 ± 28 min), while hot + hypoxia (-51 ± 20 %) further compromised exercise capacity (P < 0.05). However, the effect of temperature or altitude on end-exercise core temperature (P = 0.089 and P = 0.070, respectively) and rating of perceived exertion (P > 0.05) did not reach significance. Maximal voluntary contraction torque, voluntary activation (twitch interpolation) and peak twitch torque decreased from pre- to post-exercise (-9 ± 1, -4 ± 1 and -6 ± 1 % all trials compounded, respectively; P < 0.05), with no effect of the temperature or altitude. M-wave amplitude and root mean square activity were reduced (P < 0.05) in hot compared to temperate conditions, while normalized maximal EMG activity did not change. Altitude had no effect on any measured parameters. CONCLUSION: Moderate hypoxia in combination with heat stress reduces cycling time to exhaustion without modifying neuromuscular fatigue characteristics. Impaired oxygen delivery or increased cardiovascular strain, increasing relative exercise intensity, may have also contributed to earlier exercise cessation.

AWSum-Combining Classification with Knowledge Aquisition

Many classifiers achieve high levels of accuracy but have limited applicability in real world situations because they do not lead to a greater understanding or insight into the^way features influence the classification. In areas such as health informatics a classifier that clearly identifies the influences on classification can be used to direct research and formulate interventions. This research investigates the practical applications of Automated Weighted Sum, (AWSum), a classifier that provides accuracy comparable to other techniques whilst providing insight into the data. This is achieved by calculating a weight for each feature value that represents its influence on the class value. The merits of this approach in classification and insight are evaluated on a Cystic Fibrosis and Diabetes datasets with positive results.

Hand-in-hand advances in biomedical engineering and sensorimotor restoration.

BACKGROUND: Living in a multisensory world entails the continuous sensory processing of environmental information in order to enact appropriate motor routines. The interaction between our body and our brain is the crucial factor for achieving such sensorimotor integration ability. Several clinical conditions dramatically affect the constant body-brain exchange, but the latest developments in biomedical engineering provide promising solutions for overcoming this communication breakdown. NEW METHOD: The ultimate technological developments succeeded in transforming neuronal electrical activity into computational input for robotic devices, giving birth to the era of the so-called brain-machine interfaces. Combining rehabilitation robotics and experimental neuroscience the rise of brain-machine interfaces into clinical protocols provided the technological solution for bypassing the neural disconnection and restore sensorimotor function. RESULTS: Based on these advances, the recovery of sensorimotor functionality is progressively becoming a concrete reality. However, despite the success of several recent techniques, some open issues still need to be addressed. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD(S): Typical interventions for sensorimotor deficits include pharmaceutical treatments and manual/robotic assistance in passive movements. These procedures achieve symptoms relief but their applicability to more severe disconnection pathologies is limited (e.g. spinal cord injury or amputation). CONCLUSIONS: Here we review how state-of-the-art solutions in biomedical engineering are continuously increasing expectances in sensorimotor rehabilitation, as well as the current challenges especially with regards to the translation of the signals from brain-machine interfaces into sensory feedback and the incorporation of brain-machine interfaces into daily activities.

Inferring transport characteristics in a fractured rock aquifer by combining single-hole ground-penetrating radar reflection monitoring and tracer test data

Investigations of solute transport in fractured rock aquifers often rely on tracer test data acquired at a limited number of observation points. Such data do not, by themselves, allow detailed assessments of the spreading of the injected tracer plume. To better understand the transport behavior in a granitic aquifer, we combine tracer test data with single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection monitoring data. Five successful tracer tests were performed under various experimental conditions between two boreholes 6 m apart. For each experiment, saline tracer was injected into a previously identified packed-off transmissive fracture while repeatedly acquiring single-hole GPR reflection profiles together with electrical conductivity logs in the pumping borehole. By analyzing depth-migrated GPR difference images together with tracer breakthrough curves and associated simplified flow and transport modeling, we estimate (1) the number, the connectivity, and the geometry of fractures that contribute to tracer transport, (2) the velocity and the mass of tracer that was carried along each flow path, and (3) the effective transport parameters of the identified flow paths. We find a qualitative agreement when comparing the time evolution of GPR reflectivity strengths at strategic locations in the formation with those arising from simulated transport. The discrepancies are on the same order as those between observed and simulated breakthrough curves at the outflow locations. The rather subtle and repeatable GPR signals provide useful and complementary information to tracer test data acquired at the outflow locations and may help us to characterize transport phenomena in fractured rock aquifers.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

1H-[13C] NMR spectroscopy of the rat brain during infusion of [2-13C] acetate at 14.1 T.

Full signal intensity (1)H-[(13)C] NMR spectroscopy, combining a preceding (13)C-editing block based on an inversion BISEP (B(1)-insensitive spectral editing pulse) with a spin-echo coherence-based localization, was developed and implemented at 14.1 T. (13)C editing of the proposed scheme was achieved by turning on and off the (13)C adiabatic full passage in the (13)C-editing block to prepare inverted and noninverted (13)C-coupled (1)H coherences along the longitudinal axis prior to localization. The novel (1)H-[(13)C] NMR approach was applied in vivo under infusion of the glia-specific substrate [2-(13)C] acetate. Besides a approximately 50% improvement in sensitivity, spectral dispersion was enhanced at 14.1 T, especially for J-coupled metabolites such as glutamate and glutamine. A more distinct spectral structure at 1.9-2.2 ppm(parts per million) was observed, e.g., glutamate C3 showed a doublet pattern in both simulated (1)H spectrum and in vivo (13)C-edited (1)H NMR spectra. Besides (13)C time courses of glutamate C4 and glutamine C4, the time courses of glutamate C3 and glutamine C3 obtained by (1)H-[(13)C] NMR spectroscopy were reported for the first time. Such capability should greatly improve the ability to study neuron-glial metabolism using (1)H-observed (13)C-edited NMR spectroscopy.

Effect of soil-spraying time on root-colonization ability of antagonistic Streptomyces griseoviridis

Selostus: Kasvualustan käsittelyajan vaikutus Streptomyces griseoviridis -antagonistin juurten asutuskykyyn

T helper 1 (Th1) and Th2 characteristics start to develop during T cell priming and are associated with an immediate ability to induce immunoglobulin class switching.

The respective production of specific immunoglobulin (Ig)G2a or IgG1 within 5 d of primary immunization with Swiss type mouse mammary tumor virus [MMTV(SW)] or haptenated protein provides a model for the development of T helper 1 (Th1) and Th2 responses. The antibody-producing cells arise from cognate T cell B cell interaction, revealed by the respective induction of Cgamma2a and Cgamma1 switch transcript production, on the third day after immunization. T cell proliferation and upregulation of mRNA for interferon gamma in response to MMTV(SW) and interleukin 4 in response to haptenated protein also starts during this day. It follows that there is minimal delay in these responses between T cell priming and the onset of cognate interaction between T and B cells leading to class switching and exponential growth. The Th1 or Th2 profile is at least partially established at the time of the first cognate T cell interaction with B cells in the T zone. The addition of killed Bordetella pertussis to the hapten-protein induces nonhapten-specific IgG2a and IgG1 plasma cells, whereas the anti-hapten response continues to be IgG1 dominated. This indicates that a Th2 response to hapten-protein can proceed in a node where there is substantial Th1 activity.

There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

After a steady decline in the early 20th century, several terrestrial carnivore species have recently recovered in Western Europe, either through reintroductions or natural recolonization. Because of the large space requirements of these species and potential conflicts with human activities, ensuring their recovery requires the implementation of conservation and management measures that address the environmental, landscape and social dimensions of the problem. Few examples exist of such integrated management. Taking the case of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Switzerland, we propose a multi-step approach that allows to (1) identify areas with potentially suitable habitat, (2) evaluate their connectivity, (3) verify the potentiality of the species recolonization from populations in neighbouring countries. We showed that even though suitable habitat is available for the species and the level of structural connectivity within Switzerland is satisfactory, the level of connectivity with neighbouring populations is crucial to prioritize strategies that favour the species recovery in the field. This research is the first example integrating habitat suitability and connectivity assessment at different scales with other factors in a multi-step assessment for species recovery.

Cheminformatic studies of molecular properties and their influence on bioactivity in the context of drug discovery

Molecular shape has long been known to be an important property for the process of molecular recognition. Previous studies postulated the existence of a drug-like shape space that could be used to artificially bias the composition of screening libraries, with the aim to increase the chance of success in Hit Identification. In this work, it was analysed to which extend this assumption holds true. Normalized Principal Moments of Inertia Ratios (NPRs) have been used to describe the molecular shape of small molecules. It was investigated, whether active molecules of diverse targets are located in preferred subspaces of the NPR shape space. Results illustrated a significantly stronger clustering than could be expected by chance, with parts of the space unlikely to be occupied by active compounds. Furthermore, a strong enrichment of elongated, rather flat shapes could be observed, while globular compounds were highly underrepresented. This was confirmed for a wide range of small molecule datasets from different origins. Active compounds exhibited a high overlap in their shape distributions across different targets, making a purely shape­ based discrimination very difficult. An additional perspective was provided by comparing the shapes of protein binding pockets with those of their respective ligands. Although more globular than their ligands, it was observed that binding sites shapes exhibited a similarly skewed distribution in shape space: spherical shapes were highly underrepresented. This was different for unoccupied binding pockets of smaller size. These were on the contrary identified to possess a more globular shape. The relation between shape complementarity and exhibited bioactivity was analysed; a moderate correlation between bioactivity and parameters including pocket coverage, distance in shape space, and others could be identified, which reflects the importance of shape complementarity. However, this also suggests that other aspects are of relevance for molecular recognition. A subsequent analysis assessed if and how shape and volume information retrieved from pocket or respective reference ligands could be used as a pre-filter in a virtual screening approach. ln Lead Optimization compounds need to get optimized with respect to a variety of pararneters. Here, the availability of past success stories is very valuable, as they can guide medicinal chemists during their analogue synthesis plans. However, although of tremendous interest for the public domain, so far only large corporations had the ability to mine historical knowledge in their proprietary databases. With the aim to provide such information, the SwissBioisostere database was developed and released during this thesis. This database contains information on 21,293,355 performed substructural exchanges, corresponding to 5,586,462 unique replacements that have been measured in 35,039 assays against 1,948 molecular targets representing 30 target classes, and on their impact on bioactivity . A user-friendly interface was developed that provides facile access to these data and is accessible at http//www.swissbioisostere.ch. The ChEMBL database was used as primary data source of bioactivity information. Matched molecular pairs have been identified in the extracted and cleaned data. Success-based scores were developed and integrated into the database to allow re-ranking of proposed replacements by their past outcomes. It was analysed to which degree these scores correlate with chemical similarity of the underlying fragments. An unexpectedly weak relationship was detected and further investigated. Use cases of this database were envisioned, and functionalities implemented accordingly: replacement outcomes are aggregatable at the assay level, and it was shawn that an aggregation at the target or target class level could also be performed, but should be accompanied by a careful case-by-case assessment. It was furthermore observed that replacement success depends on the activity of the starting compound A within a matched molecular pair A-B. With increasing potency the probability to lose bioactivity through any substructural exchange was significantly higher than in low affine binders. A potential existence of a publication bias could be refuted. Furthermore, often performed medicinal chemistry strategies for structure-activity-relationship exploration were analysed using the acquired data. Finally, data originating from pharmaceutical companies were compared with those reported in the literature. It could be seen that industrial medicinal chemistry can access replacement information not available in the public domain. In contrast, a large amount of often-performed replacements within companies could also be identified in literature data. Preferences for particular replacements differed between these two sources. The value of combining different endpoints in an evaluation of molecular replacements was investigated. The performed studies highlighted furthermore that there seem to exist no universal substructural replacement that always retains bioactivity irrespective of the biological environment. A generalization of bioisosteric replacements seems therefore not possible. - La forme tridimensionnelle des molécules a depuis longtemps été reconnue comme une propriété importante pour le processus de reconnaissance moléculaire. Des études antérieures ont postulé que les médicaments occupent préférentiellement un sous-ensemble de l'espace des formes des molécules. Ce sous-ensemble pourrait être utilisé pour biaiser la composition de chimiothèques à cribler, dans le but d'augmenter les chances d'identifier des Hits. L'analyse et la validation de cette assertion fait l'objet de cette première partie. Les Ratios de Moments Principaux d'Inertie Normalisés (RPN) ont été utilisés pour décrire la forme tridimensionnelle de petites molécules de type médicament. Il a été étudié si les molécules actives sur des cibles différentes se co-localisaient dans des sous-espaces privilégiés de l'espace des formes. Les résultats montrent des regroupements de molécules incompatibles avec une répartition aléatoire, avec certaines parties de l'espace peu susceptibles d'être occupées par des composés actifs. Par ailleurs, un fort enrichissement en formes allongées et plutôt plates a pu être observé, tandis que les composés globulaires étaient fortement sous-représentés. Cela a été confirmé pour un large ensemble de compilations de molécules d'origines différentes. Les distributions de forme des molécules actives sur des cibles différentes se recoupent largement, rendant une discrimination fondée uniquement sur la forme très difficile. Une perspective supplémentaire a été ajoutée par la comparaison des formes des ligands avec celles de leurs sites de liaison (poches) dans leurs protéines respectives. Bien que plus globulaires que leurs ligands, il a été observé que les formes des poches présentent une distribution dans l'espace des formes avec le même type d'asymétrie que celle observée pour les ligands: les formes sphériques sont fortement sous­ représentées. Un résultat différent a été obtenu pour les poches de plus petite taille et cristallisées sans ligand: elles possédaient une forme plus globulaire. La relation entre complémentarité de forme et bioactivité a été également analysée; une corrélation modérée entre bioactivité et des paramètres tels que remplissage de poche, distance dans l'espace des formes, ainsi que d'autres, a pu être identifiée. Ceci reflète l'importance de la complémentarité des formes, mais aussi l'implication d'autres facteurs. Une analyse ultérieure a évalué si et comment la forme et le volume d'une poche ou de ses ligands de référence pouvaient être utilisés comme un pré-filtre dans une approche de criblage virtuel. Durant l'optimisation d'un Lead, de nombreux paramètres doivent être optimisés simultanément. Dans ce contexte, la disponibilité d'exemples d'optimisations réussies est précieuse, car ils peuvent orienter les chimistes médicinaux dans leurs plans de synthèse par analogie. Cependant, bien que d'un extrême intérêt pour les chercheurs dans le domaine public, seules les grandes sociétés pharmaceutiques avaient jusqu'à présent la capacité d'exploiter de telles connaissances au sein de leurs bases de données internes. Dans le but de remédier à cette limitation, la base de données SwissBioisostere a été élaborée et publiée dans le domaine public au cours de cette thèse. Cette base de données contient des informations sur 21 293 355 échanges sous-structuraux observés, correspondant à 5 586 462 remplacements uniques mesurés dans 35 039 tests contre 1948 cibles représentant 30 familles, ainsi que sur leur impact sur la bioactivité. Une interface a été développée pour permettre un accès facile à ces données, accessible à http:/ /www.swissbioisostere.ch. La base de données ChEMBL a été utilisée comme source de données de bioactivité. Une version modifiée de l'algorithme de Hussain et Rea a été implémentée pour identifier les Matched Molecular Pairs (MMP) dans les données préparées au préalable. Des scores de succès ont été développés et intégrés dans la base de données pour permettre un reclassement des remplacements proposés selon leurs résultats précédemment observés. La corrélation entre ces scores et la similarité chimique des fragments correspondants a été étudiée. Une corrélation plus faible qu'attendue a été détectée et analysée. Différents cas d'utilisation de cette base de données ont été envisagés, et les fonctionnalités correspondantes implémentées: l'agrégation des résultats de remplacement est effectuée au niveau de chaque test, et il a été montré qu'elle pourrait également être effectuée au niveau de la cible ou de la classe de cible, sous réserve d'une analyse au cas par cas. Il a en outre été constaté que le succès d'un remplacement dépend de l'activité du composé A au sein d'une paire A-B. Il a été montré que la probabilité de perdre la bioactivité à la suite d'un remplacement moléculaire quelconque est plus importante au sein des molécules les plus actives que chez les molécules de plus faible activité. L'existence potentielle d'un biais lié au processus de publication par articles a pu être réfutée. En outre, les stratégies fréquentes de chimie médicinale pour l'exploration des relations structure-activité ont été analysées à l'aide des données acquises. Enfin, les données provenant des compagnies pharmaceutiques ont été comparées à celles reportées dans la littérature. Il a pu être constaté que les chimistes médicinaux dans l'industrie peuvent accéder à des remplacements qui ne sont pas disponibles dans le domaine public. Par contre, un grand nombre de remplacements fréquemment observés dans les données de l'industrie ont également pu être identifiés dans les données de la littérature. Les préférences pour certains remplacements particuliers diffèrent entre ces deux sources. L'intérêt d'évaluer les remplacements moléculaires simultanément selon plusieurs paramètres (bioactivité et stabilité métabolique par ex.) a aussi été étudié. Les études réalisées ont souligné qu'il semble n'exister aucun remplacement sous-structural universel qui conserve toujours la bioactivité quel que soit le contexte biologique. Une généralisation des remplacements bioisostériques ne semble donc pas possible.

Combinations of prognostic tools for identification of high-risk normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Background: In haemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE), studies have not evaluated the usefulness of combining the measurement of cardiac troponin, transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE), and lower extremity complete compression ultrasound (CCUS) testing for predicting the risk of PE-related death. Methods: The study assessed the ability of three diagnostic tests (cardiac troponin I (cTnI), echocardiogram, and CCUS) to prognosticate the primary outcome of PE-related mortality during 30 days of follow-up after a diagnosis of PE by objective testing. Results: Of 591 normotensive patients diagnosed with PE, the primary outcome occurred in 37 patients (6.3%; 95% CI 4.3% to 8.2%). Patients with right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) by TTE and concomitant deep vein thrombosis (DVT) by CCUS had a PE-related mortality of 19.6%, compared with 17.1% of patients with elevated cTnI and concomitant DVT and 15.2% of patients with elevated cTnI and RVD. The use of any two-test strategy had a higher specificity and positive predictive value compared with the use of any test by itself. A combined three-test strategy did not further improve prognostication. For a subgroup analysis of high-risk patients, according to the pulmonary embolism severity index (classes IV and V), positive predictive values of the two-test strategies for PE-related mortality were 25.0%, 24.4% and 20.7%, respectively. Conclusions: In haemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic PE, a combination of echocardiography (or troponin testing) and CCUS improved prognostication compared with the use of any test by itself for the identification of those at high risk of PE-related death.