Pre-crash traffic flow trend analysis on motorways

Crashes on motorway contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence reduce crashes will help address congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a Short time window around the time of crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists, and that this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with traffic flow data of one hour prior to the crash using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic flow trends (traffic speed/occupancy time series) revealed that crashes could be clustered with regards of the dominant traffic flow pattern prior to the crash. Using the k-means clustering method allowed the crashes to be clustered based on their flow trends rather than their distance. Four major trends have been found in the clustering results. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation algorithms can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic flow conditions with a sliding window of 60 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

A marine reservoir correction for the Houtman-Abrolhos Archipelago, East Indian Ocean, Western Australia

High-precision analysis using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was performed upon known-age Holocene and modern, pre-bomb coral samples to generate a marine reservoir age correction value (ΔR) for the Houtman-Abrolhos Archipelago (28.7°S, 113.8°E) off the Western Australian coast. The mean ΔR value calculated for the Abrolhos Islands, 54 ± 30 yr (1σ) agrees well with regional ΔR values for Leeuwin Current source waters (N-NW Australia-Java) of 60 ± 38. The Abrolhos Islands show little variation with ΔR values of the northwestern and north Australian coast, underlining the dominance of the more equilibrated western Pacific-derived waters of the Leeuwin Current over local upwelling. The Abrolhos Islands ΔR values have remained stable over the last 2896 yr cal BP, being also attributed to the Leeuwin Current and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal during this period. Expected future trends will be a strengthening of the teleconnection of the Abrolhos Islands to the climatic patterns of the equatorial Pacific via enhanced ENSO and global warming activity strengthening the Leeuwin Current. The possible effect upon the trend of future ΔR values may be to maintain similar values and an increase in stability. However, warming trends of global climate change may cause increasing dissimilarity of ΔR values due to the effects of increasing heat stress upon lower-latitude coral communities.

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation : An incremental approach to disaster risk management in Australia

In this paper we argue that rationalist ‘predict then act’ approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) policy promote unrealistic public expectations of DRM provisions, the avoidance of decision making by political elites, an over-reliance on technical expertise and engineering solutions to reducing exposure to natural events, and a reactive approach to DRM overall. We propose an alternative incrementalist approach that focuses on managing uncertainties rather than reducing them and building resilience not simply through the reduction of hazard exposure, but also through the ongoing reduction of community vulnerability, the explicit consideration of normative priorities, and more effective community engagement in climate risk debates.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Changes to airborne pollen counts across Europe

A progressive global increase in the burden of allergic diseases has affected the industrialized world over the last half century and has been reported in the literature. The clinical evidence reveals a general increase in both incidence and prevalence of respiratory diseases, such as allergic rhinitis (common hay fever) and asthma. Such phenomena may be related not only to air pollution and changes in lifestyle, but also to an actual increase in airborne quantities of allergenic pollen. Experimental enhancements of carbon dioxide (CO) have demonstrated changes in pollen amount and allergenicity, but this has rarely been shown in the wider environment. The present analysis of a continental-scale pollen data set reveals an increasing trend in the yearly amount of airborne pollen for many taxa in Europe, which is more pronounced in urban than semi-rural/rural areas. Climate change may contribute to these changes, however increased temperatures do not appear to be a major influencing factor. Instead, we suggest the anthropogenic rise of atmospheric CO levels may be influential.

Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem. The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning, and; 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.

The challenge of integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk management : lessons from bushfire and flood inquiries in an Australian context

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency, duration and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job: Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT. It should be noted from the outset that the purpose of this research project is not to criticise the actions of emergency service workers and volunteers who do an incredible job under extreme circumstances, often risking their own lives in the process. The aim is simply to offer emergency management agencies the opportunity to step back and rethink their overall approach to the challenge they face in the light of the impacts of climate change.

Public policy, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Public policymakers are caught in a dilemma : there is a growing list of urgent issues to address, at the same time that public expenditure is being cut. Adding to this dilemma is a system of government designed in the 19th century and competing theories of policymaking dating back to the 1950s. The interlinked problems of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are cases in point. As the climate changes, there will be more frequent, intense and/or prolonged disasters such as floods and bushfires. Clearly a well integrated whole of government response is needed, but how might this be achieved? Further, how could academic research contribute to resolving this dilemma in a way that would produce something of theoretical interest as well as practical outcomes for policymakers? These are the questions addressed by our research via a comparative analysis of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. Our findings suggest that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings have implications for all areas of public policy theory and practice.

Rethinking emergency management and climate adaptation policies

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job – Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT.

Simulating land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperature in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Despite research that has been conducted elsewhere, little is known, to-date, about land cover dynamics and their impacts on land surface temperature (LST) in fast growing mega cities of developing countries. Landsat satellite images of 1989, 1999, and 2009 of Dhaka Metropolitan (DMP) area were used for analysis. This study first identified patterns of land cover changes between the periods and investigated their impacts on LST; second, applied artificial neural network to simulate land cover changes for 2019 and 2029; and finally, estimated their impacts on LST in respective periods. Simulation results show that if the current trend continues, 56% and 87% of the DMP area will likely to experience temperatures in the range of greater than or equal to 30°C in 2019 and 2029, respectively. The findings possess a major challenge for urban planners working in similar contexts. However, the technique presented in this paper would help them to quantify the impacts of different scenarios (e.g., vegetation loss to accommodate urban growth) on LST and consequently to devise appropriate policy measures.

What roles do team climate, roster control, and work life conflict play in shiftworkers’ fatigue longitudinally?

The study aimed to examine shiftworkers fatigue and the longitudinal relationships that impact on fatigue such as team climate, work life conflict, control of shifts and shift type in shift working nurses. We used a quantitative survey methodology and analysed data with a moderated hierarchical multiple regression. After matching across two time periods 18 months apart, the sample consisted of 166 nurses from one Australian hospital. Of these nurses, 61 worked two rotating day shifts (morning & afternoon/evening) and 105 were rotating shiftworkers who worked three shifts (morning afternoon/evening and nights). The findings suggest that control over shift scheduling can have significant effects on fatigue for both two-shift and three-shift workers. A significant negative relationship between positive team climate and fatigue was moderated by shift type. At both Time 1 and Time 2, work life conflict was the strongest predictor of concurrent fatigue, but over time it was not.

An analysis on trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与 死亡趋势分析]

Purpose To investigate the trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu county, and to provide scientific evidence for the government to design and adjust polices on cancer prevention and control. [Methods] The cancer registration data of new cases from 1995 to 2004 and death cases from 1998 to 2004 were used to analyse the incidence and mortality and the trend in Linqu county. Results Cancer general incidence significantly increased from 1995 to 2004 (P<0.05). The increasing speed incidence in male was faster than that in female. The incidence of lung cancer, colon/rectum cancer and pancreas cancer increased significantly (P<0.05), especially of lung cancer with an acceleration incidence rate of 2.12/100,000 peryear in average. The general mortality increased gradually from 1998 to 2004 with no significance (P>0.05). Both incidence and mortality in population aged 80 or over increased significantly (P<0.05). Conclusion The cancer incidence is rising during recent 10 years , and the prevention and control for lung cancer are getting increasingly important. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势,为政府制订和调整防治对策提供科学依据. [方法] 利用临朐县1995～2004年恶性肿瘤发病登记资料和1998～2004年的死亡登记资料,计算各种癌症发病率和死亡率,并做趋势分析. [结果] 1995～2004年临朐县恶性肿瘤总发病率呈明显上升趋势(P＜0.05),男性发病率上升速度高于女性.肺癌、肠癌、胰腺癌发病率上升显著(P＜0.05),以肺癌最为迅速(年均升高2.12/10万).1998～2004年恶性肿瘤总死亡率略有上升,但无显著性(P＞0.05);80岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤发病率与死亡率均呈上升趋势. [结论] 临朐县恶性肿瘤发病率近10年来呈现上升趋势,肺癌防治地位日益突出.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.

Epidemiological Trend of Hepatitis B in Shandong Province of China, 1990 - 2007 []

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B from 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to find the high risk population so as to explore the further control strategy. Methods Based on the routine reporting incidence data of hepatitis B and demographic data of Shandong province, the incidence rates and sex - specific, age - specific incidence rates of hepatitis B were calculated and statistically analyzed in the simple linear regression model. Results The total number of hepatitis B was 437 094, the annual average morbidity was 27132 per 100 000 population during 1990 to 2007. The incidence of men (38142 per 100 000) was higher than that for women (15183 per 100 000) 1The annual incidence rate of hepatitis B indicated an increasing trend for the whole population, while a decreased trend for the 0～9 year - old children p resented in the past 18 years. It showed that the average age of onset moved to the older. Conclusion Young adult men are the high-risk groups for the onset of hepatitis B. For the prevention of hepatitis B, the immunization of hepatitis B vaccine should be enhanced for other groups, especially for the high - risk population on the basis of imp roving the immunization coverage rate for newborns.

High seroprevalence of antibodies to varicella zoster virus in adult women in a tropical climate

OBJECTIVES To determine whether the seroprevalence of antibodies to varicella zoster virus (VZV) in adults is similar to that reported in tropical populations elsewhere. METHODS We measured the seroprevalence of VZV IgG antibodies, using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in women attending an antenatal clinic in an urban centre in tropical Australia. RESULTS The overall seroprevalence of VZV antibodies in 298 women was 92% (95% CI 88-95), with no difference between women who spent their childhoods in the tropics and colleagues. None of the overseas-born women was seronegative. CONCLUSION The seroprevalence of VZV antibodies in this tropical population in Australia is as high as that reported from temperate regions, suggesting that social and cultural factors and population mobility are more important determinants of age distribution of VZV immunity than tropical climate.