Comparison between weight loss of bends in a pneumatic conveyor and erosion rate obtained in a centrifugal erosion tester for the same materials

In order to find a link between results obtained from a laboratory erosion tester and tests carried out on a pneumatic conveyor, a comparison has been made between weight loss from bends on an industrial-scale pneumatic conveyor and erosion rates obtained in a small centrifugal erosion tester, for the same materials. Identical test conditions have been applied to both experiments so that comparable test results have been obtained. The erosion rate of mild steel commonly used as the wall material of conveyor pipes and pipe bends was determined individually on both test rigs. A relationship between weight loss from the bends and erosion rate determined from the tester has been developed. A discussion based on the results and their applicability to the prediction of wear in pneumatic conveyors concludes the paper. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian model selection for time series using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present a stochastic simulation technique for subset selection in time series models, based on the use of indicator variables with the Gibbs sampler within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. As an example, the method is applied to the selection of subset linear AR models, in which only significant lags are included. Joint sampling of the indicators and parameters is found to speed convergence. We discuss the possibility of model mixing where the model is not well determined by the data, and the extension of the approach to include non-linear model terms.

The design of an agent for modelling supply chain network dynamics

A useful insight into managerial decision making can be found from simulation of business systems, but existing work on simulation of supply chain behaviour has largely considered non-competitive chains. Where competitive agents have been examined, they have generally had a simple structure and been used for fundamental examination of stability and equilibria rather than providing practical guidance to managers. In this paper, a new agent for the study of competitive supply chain network dynamics is proposed. The novel features of the agent include the ability to select between competing vendors, distribute orders preferentially among many customers, manage production and inventory, and determine price based on competitive behaviour. The structure of the agent is related to existing business models and sufficient details are provided to allow implementation. The agent is tested to demonstrate that it recreates the main results of the existing modelling and management literature on supply chain dynamics. A brief exploration of competitive dynamics is given to confirm that the proposed agent can respond to competition. The results demonstrate that overall profitability for a supply chain network is maximised when businesses operate collectively. It is possible for an individual business to achieve higher profits by adopting a more competitive stance, but the consequence of this is that the overall profitability of the network is reduced. The agent will be of use for a broad range of studies on the long-run effect of management decisions on their network of suppliers and customers.