Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'

Estimation of percentage body fat in 6- to 13-year-old children by skinfold thickness, body mass index and waist circumference.

We evaluated the accuracy of skinfold thicknesses, BMI and waist circumference for the prediction of percentage body fat (PBF) in a representative sample of 372 Swiss children aged 6-13 years. PBF was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. On the basis of a preliminary bootstrap selection of predictors, seven regression models were evaluated. All models included sex, age and pubertal stage plus one of the following predictors: (1) log-transformed triceps skinfold (logTSF); (2) logTSF and waist circumference; (3) log-transformed sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds (logSF2); (4) log-transformed sum of triceps, biceps, subscapular and supra-iliac skinfolds (logSF4); (5) BMI; (6) waist circumference; (7) BMI and waist circumference. The adjusted determination coefficient (R² adj) and the root mean squared error (RMSE; kg) were calculated for each model. LogSF4 (R² adj 0.85; RMSE 2.35) and logSF2 (R² adj 0.82; RMSE 2.54) were similarly accurate at predicting PBF and superior to logTSF (R² adj 0.75; RMSE 3.02), logTSF combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.78; RMSE 2.85), BMI (R² adj 0.62; RMSE 3.73), waist circumference (R² adj 0.58; RMSE 3.89), and BMI combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.63; RMSE 3.66) (P < 0.001 for all values of R² adj). The finding that logSF4 was only modestly superior to logSF2 and that logTSF was better than BMI and waist circumference at predicting PBF has important implications for paediatric epidemiological studies aimed at disentangling the effect of body fat on health outcomes.

The role of migration and domestic transmission in the spread of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.

Desenvolupament d'una aplicació per a la creació de pressupostos on-line

En aquests moments, el mercat no es troba en una bona situació, per aquest motiu les empreses han de buscar noves maneres de créixer, expandir-se i noves formes d’interactuar amb els clients. La idea original d’aquest projecte sorgeix de la necessitat de disposar d’una manera diferent de promocionar-se i oferir nous serveis a través d’internet mitjançant una pàgina web. Degut a la situació actual, el preu és un aspecte molt important i influent a l’hora de realitzar una obra. Per aquest motiu es va pensar que seria molt interessant que el client pogués demanar de forma fàcil i ràpida un pressupost, i a l’instant tingués un preu orientatiu del que li pot costar la obra. D’aquesta manera l’interessat s’estalvia i agilitza molts passos previs abans de començar una obra. Després d’analitzar quina era la millor manera de portar a terme el projecte informàtic, s’ha determinat que la pàgina web es desenvoluparà utilitzant els llenguatges HTML i PHP combinant-lo amb el framework CodeIgniter. El disseny de la web es realitzarà mitjançant fulles d’estil CSS conjuntament amb el framework BootStrap. Per realitzar l’aplicació web que realitza els pressupostos s’utilitzarà AJAX i jQuery perquè d’aquesta manera el procés sigui dinàmic. L’entorn de desenvolupament escollit és el NetBeans i per provar el projecte s’utilitza el XAMPP. Un usuari només necessitarà un navegador i connexió a internet per fer servir totes les funcions de la web. Podrà realitzar pressupostos, concertar visites, contactar i per suposat veure tota la part informativa de la pàgina.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Anàlisi multivariada craniomètrica de les poblacions catalano-balears del passat

S'ha portat a terme una analisi estadística de les dades craniometriques de les principals poblacions catalano-balears del passat, des de J'Edat del Bronze fins a l'Edat Mitjana, i posteriorment s'han integrat les poblacions en un context peninsular més ampli. S'han analitzalles relacions entre poblacions per mitja d'un analisi d'agrupament (cluster), emprant els algoritmes UPGMA i del "veí més proper" i la distancia euclídea al quadrat. Així mateix, s'ha realitzat un re-mostreig (bootstrap) per comprovar la robustes de les agrupacions obtingudes i un test de Mantel per comprovar el grau de concordan~a entre les poblacions femenines i masculines. Els resultats mostren que, a nivell peninsular, els Bascos són la població més diferenciada de la resta des d'un punt de vista morfologic, la qual cosa pot estar relacionada amb una major antiguitat d'aquesta població, potser present des de temps pre-neolítics. La segona font de variació peninsular la constitueixen dues poblacions amb possibles influencies foranies d'origen africa: jueus i musulmans. La resta de poblacions, incloent-hi les de Mallorca, són notablement homogenies a pesar de la seva heterogene'itat cultural, temporal i geogràtfica. Finalment, es conclou que no hi ha cap analisi estadística que objectivament recolzi I'existencia deIs tipus racials tradicionalmcnt descrits a la Península Iberica, i que responen a una visió tipologica i estatica de la diversitat humana.

Citizens' control and the efficiency of local public services

Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Citizens' control and the efficiency of local public services

Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.

Mobility of inorganic and organic phosphorus forms under different levels of phosphate and poultry litter fertilization in soils

The eutrophication of aquifers is strongly linked to the mobility of P in soils. Although P mobility was considered irrelevant in a more distant past, more recent studies have shown that P, both in organic (Po) and inorganic forms (Pi), can be lost by leaching and eluviation through the soil profile, particularly in less weathered and/or sandier soils with low P adsorption capacity. The purpose of this study was to determine losses of P forms by leaching and eluviation from soil columns. Each column consisted of five PVC rings (diameter 5 cm, height 10 cm), filled with two soil types: a clayey Red-Yellow Latosol and a sandy loam Red-Yellow Latosol, which were exposed to water percolation. The soils were previously treated with four P rates (as KH2PO4 ) to reach 0, 12.5, 25.0 and 50 % of the maximum P adsorption capacity (MPAC). The P source was homogenized with the whole soil volume and incubated for 60 days. After this period the soils were placed in the columns; the soil of the top ring was mixed with five poultry litter rates of 0, 20, 40, 80, and 160 t ha-1 (dry weight basis). Treatments consisted of a 4 x 5 x 2 factorial scheme corresponding to four MPAC levels, five poultry litter rates, two soils, with three replications, arranged in a completely randomized block design. Deionized water was percolated through the columns 10 times in 35 days to simulate about 1,200 mm rainfall. In the leachate of each column the inorganic P (reactive P, Pi) and organic P forms (unreactive P, Po) were determined. At the end of the experiment, the columns were disassembled and P was extracted with the extractants Mehlich-1 (HCl 0.05 mol L-1 and H2SO4 0.0125 mol L-1) and Olsen (NaHCO3 0.5 mol L-1; pH 8.5) from the soil of each ring. The Pi and Po fractions were measured by the Olsen extractant. It was found that under higher poultry litter rates the losses of unreactive P (Po) were 6.4 times higher than of reactive P (Pi). Both the previous P fertilization and increasing poultry litter rates caused a vertical movement of P down the soil columns, as verified by P concentrations extracted by Mehlich-1 and NaHCO3 (Olsen). The environmental critical level (ECL), i.e., the P soil concentration above which P leaching increases exponentially, was 100 and 150 mg dm-3 by Mehlich-1 and 40 and 60 mg dm-3 by Olsen, for the sandy loam and clay soils, respectively. In highly weathered soils, where residual P is accumulated by successive crops, P leaching through the profile can be significant, particularly when poultry litter is applied as fertilizer.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Self-organized criticality induced by diversity

We have studied the collective behavior of a population of integrate-and-fire oscillators. We show that diversity, introduced in terms of a random distribution of natural periods, is the mechanism that permits one to observe self-organized criticality (SOC) in the long time regime. As diversity increases the system undergoes several transitions from a supercritical regime to a subcritical one, crossing the SOC region. Although there are resemblances with percolation, we give proofs that criticality takes place for a wide range of values of the control parameter instead of a single value.

Magnetic microstructures from magnetic force microscopy and Monte Carlo simulation in CoFe-Ag-Cu granular films

CoFe-Ag-Cu granular films, prepared by rf sputtering, displayed magnetic domain microstructures for ferromagnetic concentrations above about 32% at, and below the percolation threshold. All samples have a fcc structure with an (111) texture perpendicular to the film plane. Magnetic force microscopy (MFM) showed a variety of magnetic domain microstructures, extremely sensitive to the magnetic history of the sample, which arise from the balance of the ferromagnetic exchange, the dipolar interactions and perpendicular magnetocrystalline anisotropy, MFM images indicate that in virgin samples, magnetic bubble domains with an out-of-plane component of the magnetization are surrounded by a quasicontinuous background of opposite magnetization domains. The application of a magnetic field in different geometries drastically modifies the microstructure of the system in the remanent state: i) for an in-plane field, the MFM images show that most of the magnetic moments are aligned along the film plane, ii) for an out-of-plane field, the MFM signal increases about one order of magnitude, and out-of-plane striped domains with alternating up and down magnetization are stabilized. Numerical simulations show that a variety of metastable domain structures (similar to those observed experimentally) can be reached, depending on magnetic history, in systems with competing perpendicular anisotropy, exchange and dipolar interactions.

Clustering in complex networks. I. General formalism

We develop a full theoretical approach to clustering in complex networks. A key concept is introduced, the edge multiplicity, that measures the number of triangles passing through an edge. This quantity extends the clustering coefficient in that it involves the properties of two¿and not just one¿vertices. The formalism is completed with the definition of a three-vertex correlation function, which is the fundamental quantity describing the properties of clustered networks. The formalism suggests different metrics that are able to thoroughly characterize transitive relations. A rigorous analysis of several real networks, which makes use of this formalism and the metrics, is also provided. It is also found that clustered networks can be classified into two main groups: the weak and the strong transitivity classes. In the first class, edge multiplicity is small, with triangles being disjoint. In the second class, edge multiplicity is high and so triangles share many edges. As we shall see in the following paper, the class a network belongs to has strong implications in its percolation properties.