Previsão estocástica de nível fluviométrico para cidade de Marabá-PA: método de Box-Jenkins

O Município de Marabá- PA, situado na região Amazônica, sudeste do Estado do Pará, sofre anualmente com eventos de enchentes, ocasionados pelo aumento periódico do rio Tocantins e pela situação de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas de risco. A defesa civil estadual e municipal anualmente planeja e prepara equipes para ações de defesa no município. Nesta fase o monitoramento e previsão de eventos de enchentes são importantes. Portanto, com o objetivo de diminuir erros nas previsões hidrológicas para o Município de Marabá, desenvolveu-se um modelo estocástico para previsão de nível do rio Tocantins, baseado na metodologia de Box e Jenkins. Utilizou os dados de níveis diários observados nas estações hidrológicas de Marabá e Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de 01/12/ 2008 a 31/03/2011. Efetuou-se o ajustamento de três modelos (M_t, N_t e Y_t), através de diferentes aplicativos estatísticos: o SAS e o Gretl, usando diferentes interpretações do comportamento das séries para gerar as equações dos modelos. A principal diferença entre os aplicativos é que no SAS usa o modelo de função de transferência na modelagem. Realizou-se uma classificação da variabilidade do nível do rio, através da técnica dos Quantis para o período de 1972 a 2011, examinando-se apenas as categorizações de níveis ACIMA e MUITO ACIMA do normal. Para análise de impactos socioeconômicos foram usados os dados das ações da Defesa Civil Estado do Pará nas cheias de 2009 e 2011. Os resultados mostraram que o número de eventos de cheias com níveis MUITO ACIMA do normal, geralmente, podem estar associados a eventos de La Niña. Outro resultado importante: os modelos gerados simularam muito bem o nível do rio para o período de sete dias (01/04/2011 a 07/04/2011). O modelo multivariado N_t (com pequenos erros) representou o comportamento da série original, subestimando os valores reais nos dias 3, 4 e 5 de abril de 2011, com erro máximo de 0,28 no dia 4. O modelo univariado (Y_t) teve bons resultados nas simulações com erros absolutos em torno de 0,12 m. O modelo com menor erro absoluto (0,08m) para o mesmo período foi o modelo M_t, desenvolvido pelo aplicativo SAS, que interpreta a série original como sendo não linear e não estacionária. A análise quantitativa dos impactos fluviométricos, ocorridos nas enchentes de 2009 e 2011 na cidade de Marabá, revelou em média que mais de 4 mil famílias sofrem com estes eventos, implicado em gastos financeiros elevados. Logo, conclui-se que os modelos de previsão de níveis são importantes ferramentas que a Defesa Civil, utiliza no planejamento e preparo de ações preventivas para o município de Marabá.

Anaerobic-aerobic treatment of swine wastewater in uasb and batch reactors in series

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cardiac hypertrophy and structural and metabolic remodeling related to seasonal dormancy in the first annual cycle in tegu lizards

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Trends in Mean Annual Streamflows in Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diurnal and annual evolution of UV, PAR and NIR irradiations in Botucatu/Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The crystal field strength parameter and the maximum splitting of the 7F1 manifold of the Eu3+ ion in oxides

We examine, from both the experimental and theoretical point of view, the behavior of the maximum splitting ΔE, of the 7F1 manifold of the Eu3+ ion as a function of the so-called crystal field strength parameter, Nv, in a series of oxides. In connection with the original theory that describes the relation between ΔE and Nv, a more consistent procedure to describe this relation is presented for the cases of small total angular momentum J. Good agreement is found between theory and experiment. © 1995.

Admiralty Bay Benthos Diversity-A census of a complex polar ecosystem

A thorough census of Admiralty Bay benthic biodiversity was completed through the synthesis of data, acquired from more than 30 years of observations. Most of the available records arise from successive Polish and Brazilian Antarctic expeditions organized since 1977 and 1982, respectively, but also include new data from joint collecting efforts during the International Polar Year (2007-2009). Geological and hydrological characteristics of Admiralty Bay and a comprehensive species checklist with detailed data on the distribution and nature of the benthic communities are provided. Approximately 1300 species of benthic organisms (excluding bacteria, fungi and parasites) were recorded from the bay`s entire depth range (0-500 m). Generalized classifications and the descriptions of soft-bottom and hard-bottom invertebrate communities are presented. A time-series analysis showed seasonal and interannual changes in the shallow benthic communities, likely to be related to ice formation and ice melt within the bay. As one of the best studied regions in the maritime Antarctic Admiralty Bay represents a legacy site, where continued, systematically integrated data sampling can evaluate the effects of climate change on marine life. Both high species richness and high assemblage diversity of the Admiralty Bay shelf benthic community have been documented against the background of habitat heterogeneity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

How large is the lung recruitability in early acute respiratory distress syndrome: a prospective case series of patients monitored by computed tomography

Introduction: The benefits of higher positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have been modest, but few studies have fully tested the "open-lung hypothesis". This hypothesis states that most of the collapsed lung tissue observed in ARDS can be reversed at an acceptable clinical cost, potentially resulting in better lung protection, but requiring more intensive maneuvers. The short-/middle-term efficacy of a maximum recruitment strategy (MRS) was recently described in a small physiological study. The present study extends those results, describing a case-series of non-selected patients with early, severe ARDS submitted to MRS and followed until hospital discharge or death. Methods: MRS guided by thoracic computed tomography (CT) included two parts: a recruitment phase to calculate opening pressures (incremental steps under pressure-controlled ventilation up to maximum inspiratory pressures of 60 cmH(2)O, at constant driving-pressures of 15 cmH(2)O); and a PEEP titration phase (decremental PEEP steps from 25 to 10 cmH2O) used to estimate the minimum PEEP to keep lungs open. During all steps, we calculated the size of the non-aerated (-100 to +100 HU) compartment and the recruitability of the lungs (the percent mass of collapsed tissue re-aerated from baseline to maximum PEEP). Results: A total of 51 severe ARDS patients, with a mean age of 50.7 years (84% primary ARDS) was studied. The opening plateau-pressure was 59.6 (+/- 5.9 cmH(2)O), and the mean PEEP titrated after MRS was 24.6 (+/- 2.9 cmH(2)O). Mean PaO2/FiO(2) ratio increased from 125 (+/- 43) to 300 (+/- 103; P < 0.0001) after MRS and was sustained above 300 throughout seven days. Non-aerated parenchyma decreased significantly from 53.6% (interquartile range (IQR): 42.5 to 62.4) to 12.7% (IQR: 4.9 to 24.2) (P < 0.0001) after MRS. The potentially recruitable lung was estimated at 45% (IQR: 25 to 53). We did not observe major barotrauma or significant clinical complications associated with the maneuver. Conclusions: MRS could efficiently reverse hypoxemia and most of the collapsed lung tissue during the course of ARDS, compatible with a high lung recruitability in non-selected patients with early, severe ARDS. This strategy should be tested in a prospective randomized clinical trial.

Ozone sounding in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo, Brazil: Wet and dry season campaigns of 2006

In the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), located in southeastern Brazil, surface ozone concentrations are often well above the national air quality standards. In this experimental study, we attempted to characterize the vertical profile of atmospheric ozone and transport of the ozone plume in the boundary layer, using data from the first ozone soundings ever taken in the MASP. In 2006, we launched fifteen ozonesondes: eight from 15 to 18 May (dry season); and seven from 30 October to 1 November (wet season). Vertical ozone mixing ratios in the troposphere were approximately 40 ppb, reaching maximum values of approximately 60 ppb during the dry-season campaign and approximately 100 ppb during the wet-season campaign. In the first and second campaigns, the mean tropospheric ozone column abundance was 28.2 and 41.3 DU, respectively, which can be attributed to the considerable variation in the annual temperature cycle over the region. To determine the effect that biomass burning has on ozone concentrations over the MASP, we analyzed wind trajectories and satellite-derived fire counts. We cannot state unequivocally that biomass burning contributed to higher ozone concentrations above the boundary layer during the experimental campaigns. In the boundary layer, ozone concentrations increase with altitude, peaking at the base of the inversion layer, suggesting that local emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides play a significant role in the lower troposphere over MASP, influencing ozone formation not only at the surface but also vertically in the atmosphere and in distant regions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural coding tools, based on Information Theory, applied to discrete time series: from electrophysiology to neuroethology

This work is supported by Brazilian agencies Fapesp, CAPES and CNPq

Statistical assessment of annual patterns in coastal extreme wave conditions

[EN]The annual cycle in extreme values of significant wave height is examined by transforming the timing ofthe storm peaks in a circular variable, with the aim of taking advantage of the many tests devised to explore uniformity on the circle. The use of four different but complementary uniformity tests makes possible a robust assessment of the annual cycle statistical significance. Seasonality of storms in a long time series of significant wave heights, measured in a coastal zone, is examined. The presence of a seasonal pattem is statistically beyond doubt.

Dimensionamento di invasi per il controllo dei deflussi nei bacini urbanizzati

Urbanization is a continuing phenomenon in all the world. Grasslands, forests, etc. are being continually changed to residential, commercial and industrial complexes, roads and streets, and so on. One of the side effects of urbanization with which engineers and planners must deal with, is the increase of peak flows and volumes of runoff from rainfall events. As a result, the urban drainage and flood control systems must be designed to accommodate the peak flows from a variety of storms that may occur. Usually the peak flow, after development, is required not to exceed what would have occurred from the same storm under conditions existing prior to development. In order to do this it is necessary to design detention storage to hold back runoff and to release it downstream at controlled rates. In the first part of the work have been developed various simplified formulations that can be adopted for the design of stormwater detention facilities. In order to obtain a simplified hydrograph were adopted two approaches: the kinematic routing technique and the linear reservoir schematization. For the two approaches have been also obtained other two formulations depending if the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is described with two or three parameters. Other formulations have been developed taking into account if the outlet have a constant discharge or it depends on the water level in the pond. All these formulations can be easily applied when are known the characteristics of the drainage system and maximum discharge that these is in the outlet and has been defined a Return Period which characterize the IDF curve. In this way the volume of the detention pond can be calculated. In the second part of the work have been analyzed the design of detention ponds adopting continuous simulation models. The drainage systems adopted for the simulations, performed with SWMM5, are fictitious systems characterized by different sizes, and different shapes of the catchments and with a rainfall historical time series of 16 years recorded in Bologna. This approach suffers from the fact that continuous record of rainfall is often not available and when it is, the cost of such modelling can be very expensive, and that the majority of design practitioners are not prepared to use continuous long term modelling in the design of stormwater detention facilities. In the third part of the work have been analyzed statistical and stochastic methodologies in order to define the volume of the detention pond. In particular have been adopted the results of the long term simulation, performed with SWMM, to obtain the data to apply statistic and stochastic formulation. All these methodologies have been compared and correction coefficient have been proposed on the basis of the statistic and stochastic form. In this way engineers which have to design a detention pond can apply a simplified procedure appropriately corrected with the proposed coefficient.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

A Novel Method for the Homogenization of Daily Temperature Series and Its Relevance for Climate Change Analysis

Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.