Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using words as Data

We present a new way of extracting policy positions from political texts that treats texts not as discourses to be understood and interpreted but rather, as data in the form of words. We compare this approach to previous methods of text analysis and use it to replicate published estimates of the policy positions of political parties in Britain and Ireland, on both economic and social policy dimensions. We “export” the method to a non-English-language environment, analyzing the policy positions of German parties, including the PDS as it entered the former West German party system. Finally, we extend its application beyond the analysis of party manifestos, to the estimation of political positions from legislative speeches. Our “language-blind” word scoring technique successfully replicates published policy estimates without the substantial costs of time and labor that these require. Furthermore, unlike in any previous method for extracting policy positions from political texts, we provide uncertainty measures for our estimates, allowing analysts to make informed judgments of the extent to which differences between two estimated policy positions can be viewed as significant or merely as products of measurement error.

The Holocene British and Irish ancient woodland fossil beetle fauna: implications for forest history, biodiversity and faunal colonisation

This paper presents a new review of our knowledge of the ancient forest beetle fauna from Holocene archaeological and palaeoecological sites in Great Britain and Ireland. It examines the colonisation, dispersal and decline of beetle species, highlighting the scale and nature of human activities in the shaping of the landscape of the British Isles. In particular, the paper discusses effects upon the insect fauna, and examines in detail the fossil record from the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. It discusses the local extirpation of up to 40 species in Britain and 15 species in Ireland. An evaluation of the timing of extirpations is made, suggesting that many species in Britain disappear from the fossil record between c. 3000 cal BC and 1000 cal BC (c. 5000-3000 cal BP), although some taxa may well have survived until considerably later. In Ireland, there are two distinct trends, with a group of species which seem to be absent after c. 2000 cal BC (c. 4000 cal BP) and a further group which survives until at least as late as the medieval period. The final clearance of the Irish landscape over the last few hundred years was so dramatic, however, that some species which are not especially unusual in a British context were decimated. Reasons behind the extirpation of taxa are examined in detail, and include a combination of forest clearance and human activities, isolation of populations, lack of temporal continuity of habitats, edaphic and competition factors affecting distribution of host trees (particularly pine), lack of forest fires and a decline in open forest systems. The role of climate change in extirpations is also evaluated. Consideration is given to the significance of these specialised ancient forest inhabitants in Ireland in the absence of an early Holocene land-bridge which suggests that colonisation was aided by other mechanisms, such as human activities and wood-rafting. Finally, the paper discusses the Continental origins of the British and Irish fauna and its hosts and the role played by European glacial refugia.

'Ancient Enmities' and Modern Conflict: History and Politics in Northern Ireland

This article investigates the role of history and historical consciousness in deeply divided societies. It looks at the case of Northern Ireland. It argues that, while the conflict here is caused by contemporary divisions, perceptions of the past have had considerable influence. Recent years have seen efforts to change historical attitudes and this has aided political accommodation. An important lesson from the conflict in Northern Ireland points to the need to challenge such historical perceptions.