Time-varying coefficients in the almost ideal demand system: An empirical appraisal

This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Mutational meltdown in primary endosymbionts: selection limits Muller's ratchet

Background Primary bacterial endosymbionts of insects (p-endosymbionts) are thought to be undergoing the process of Muller's ratchet where they accrue slightly deleterious mutations due to genetic drift in small populations with negligible recombination rates. If this process were to go unchecked over time, theory predicts mutational meltdown and eventual extinction. Although genome degradation is common among p-endosymbionts, we do not observe widespread p-endosymbiont extinction, suggesting that Muller's ratchet may be slowed or even stopped over time. For example, selection may act to slow the effects of Muller's ratchet by removing slightly deleterious mutations before they go to fixation thereby causing a decrease in nucleotide substitutions rates in older p-endosymbiont lineages. Methodology/Principal Findings To determine whether selection is slowing the effects of Muller's ratchet, we determined the age of the Candidatus Riesia/sucking louse assemblage and analyzed the nucleotide substitution rates of several p-endosymbiont lineages that differ in the length of time that they have been associated with their insect hosts. We find that Riesia is the youngest p-endosymbiont known to date, and has been associated with its louse hosts for only 13–25 My. Further, it is the fastest evolving p-endosymbiont with substitution rates of 19–34% per 50 My. When comparing Riesia to other insect p-endosymbionts, we find that nucleotide substitution rates decrease dramatically as the age of endosymbiosis increases. Conclusions/Significance A decrease in nucleotide substitution rates over time suggests that selection may be limiting the effects of Muller's ratchet by removing individuals with the highest mutational loads and decreasing the rate at which new mutations become fixed. This countering effect of selection could slow the overall rate of endosymbiont extinction.

The demand for a healthy diet: estimating the almost ideal demand system with infrequency of purchase

A Bayesian method of estimating multivariate sample selection models is introduced and applied to the estimation of a demand system for food in the UK to account for censoring arising from infrequency of purchase. We show how it is possible to impose identifying restrictions on the sample selection equations and that, unlike a maximum likelihood framework, the imposition of adding up at both latent and observed levels is straightforward. Our results emphasise the role played by low incomes and socio-economic circumstances in leading to poor diets and also indicate that the presence of children in a household has a negative impact on dietary quality.

Joint modelling of obstacle induced and mesoscale changes: current limits and challenges

Obstacles considerably influence boundary layer processes. Their influences have been included in mesoscale models (MeM) for a long time. Methods used to parameterise obstacle effects in a MeM are summarised in this paper using results of the mesoscale model METRAS as examples. Besides the parameterisation of obstacle influences it is also possible to use a joint modelling approach to describe obstacle induced and mesoscale changes. Three different methods may be used for joint modelling approaches: The first method is a time-slice approach, where steady basic state profiles are used in an obstacle resolving microscale model (MiM, example model MITRAS) and diurnal cycles are derived by joining steady-state MITRAS results. The second joint modelling approach is one-way nesting, where the MeM results are used to initialise the MiM and to drive the boundary values of the MiM dependent on time. The third joint modelling approach is to apply multi-scale models or two-way nesting approaches, which include feedbacks from the MiM to the MeM. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and remaining problems with joint Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes modelling approaches are summarised in the paper.