O significado da distribuição para os grandes bancos verejistas: análise e consequências sob o ponto de vista de marketing

Trata da revolução em curso nos canais de distribuição dos grandes bancos varejistas em função dos impactos provocados pela tecnologia, pela globalização, pelas parcerias e pela formação de um novo ambiente de distribuição eletrônico, remoto e virtual denominado como marketspace. Esse novo ambiente, até o ano de 2007, deverá canalizar 2/3 dos negócios bancários que envolvam efetiva intermediação financeira. A revolução é tão importante que pode significar o início de um novo ciclo no negócio dos grandes bancos varejistas. Os impactos sobre marketing são igualmente poderosos, exigindo dos bancos uma completa revisão de sua estratégia mercadológica. Evidências foram colhidas de extensiva revisão bibliográfica, através de entrevistas em profundidade e de pesquisa amostrai com clientes bancários. Cursos de ação são sugeridos.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Rentabilidade de estratégias de momento no IBOVESPA: aplicação de critérios de risco para seleção de carteiras

Este artigo apresenta a utilização de Beta e variação de Beta dos ativos pertencentes ao Ibovespa como novos critérios para a construção de carteiras vencedoras e perdedoras em estratégias de momento. Os resultados mostram que as estratégias de momento, com base em critérios de maior ou menor Beta e de variação de Beta dos ativos pertencentes ao Ibovespa, geram retornos positivos ao longo de períodos subsequentes de 6 meses e 12 meses, porém apontam que estas estratégias, quando aplicadas e renovadas a cada mudança do principal índice bursátil brasileiro, apresentaram-se menos rentáveis do que as estratégias habituais baseadas no retorno total dos ativos no período entre 1995 a 2013.

O rateio de ICMS por desempenho de municípios no Ceará e seu impacto em indicadores do sistema de avaliação da educação

De todo ICMS arrecadado pelos estados brasileiros, 25% é distribuído aos municípios. Os estados são responsáveis por definir as regras de distribuição de 25% destes 25% do ICMS que é transferido aos municípios, os outros 75% seguem o critério do Valor Adicionado Fiscal. Alguns estados alteraram suas leis para que a distribuição seja realizada em função do desempenho dos municípios em algumas áreas com o intuito de incentiva-lo a melhorarem sua performance em busca de uma maior fatia do ICMS. Seguindo esta lógica está o estado do Ceará onde 100% do ICMS distribuído segundo regras estaduais é calculado a partir do desempenho dos municípios em indicadores de resultado nas áreas da educação (72%), saúde (20%) e meio ambiente (8%). Este estudo tem como objetivo estimar o efeito que a mudança da Lei de distribuição do ICMS do Ceará teve em indicadores de resultado da área da educação: IDEB e Prova Brasil. Para tanto, foi utilizado o método da Dupla Diferença por meio da construção de grupos de controle e tratamento. Assim, comparou-se a evolução do desempenho, anteriormente e posteriormente à mudança, de municípios cearenses com municípios parecidos de estados vizinhos, porém, não submetidos a mesma regra de distribuição de ICMS. De forma complementar, foram feitas outras duas analises separando os municípios do estado do Ceará entre ganhadores e perdedores de recursos de ICMS com a mudança na Lei e entre os detentores dos melhores e piores desempenhos de PIB per capita. Os resultados apontam impactos positivos no desempenho dos municípios cearenses tanto no IDEB quanto na Prova Brasil. Mesmo os municípios que perderam recursos com mudança das regras de distribuição de ICMS, melhoraram sua performance na educação. Os municípios mais pobres do estado, que apresentam desempenho pior do que os municípios mais ricos, aumentaram o desempenho reduzindo a diferença de proficiência se comparada aos municípios mais ricos. Neste sentido, há indícios de que a mudança na Lei do ICMS implementada pelo estado do Ceará gerou impactos positivos no desempenho dos municípios no IDEB e na Prova Brasil.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Novos arranjos na distribuição dos royalties do petróleo: uma análise do debate no Brasil e sua convergência com outras reformas da América Latina

Ainda que aprovada em 2012, a Lei dos Royalties do Petróleo (Lei 12.374 de 2012) ainda não entrou em vigor por conta de uma decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal de suspender os dispositivos que estabelecem uma nova distribuição das receitas do petróleo entre os Estados brasileiros. A análise da discussão apresentada no Senado do Projeto de Lei que precedeu à Lei 12.374 revelou que não apenas a normativa aprovada não gerou ganhadores nem perdedores absolutos, uma vez que há questões do pacto federativo que são ambíguas e, em consequência, suscetíveis de conflitos, como também que a distribuição das rendas provenientes do petróleo entre todas as Unidades da Federação não foi uma disputa interna e isolada no Senado brasileiro entre argumentos sobre concentrar ou universalizar os recursos do petróleo, pelo contrário, foi demostrado que existe na região latino-americana uma tendência de aumentar os royalties e os impostos para serem destinados a políticas sociais que beneficiem a todo o país, e não apenas os Estados produtores de petróleo.

Mecanismo LPVR - Least Present Value of Revenues como mitigador de riscos em concessões rodoviárias: uma aplicação a um caso brasileiro

Nos últimos anos o governo brasileiro tem adotado a postura de incentivo a projetos de infraestrutura, sendo as concessões rodoviárias um dos principais mecanismos. Muito se discute sobre a melhor forma de remuneração das concessionárias, sem que, ao mesmo tempo, os usuários não tenham um custo elevado e possam usufruir de bons serviçoes prestados.Essa discussão passa, principalmente, por uma análise de risco de tráfego, que hoje é inteiramente alocado as cconcessionárias. A metodologia utilizada nos últimos leilões segue uma exigência de Taxa Interna de Retorno ( TIR ) máxima, pelo Poder Concedente ( ANTT ), em termos reais e um prazo de concessão fixo. A partir de custos e investimentos estimados em determinada concessão, a ANTT define uma tarifa-teto a ser cobrada pela concessionária aos usuários através da TIR máxima exigida no projeto. Esta TIR é calculada com base no custo médio ponderado de capital ( WACC ) de empresas do setor, que tem ações negociadas na BM&F Bovespa, utilizando-se apenas dados domésticos. Neste trabalho é proposto um modelo alternativo, baseado no menor valor presente das receitas ( LPVR - Least Present Value of Revenues ). Neste modelo observamos que o risco de tráfego é bem menor para a concessionária, pois a concessão só se expira quando determinado nível de receitas exigido pela concessionária é atingido. Ou seja, para tal, é necessário um modelo de prazo flexível. Neste mecanismo, entretanto, com menor risco de tráfego, o upside e o downside, em termos de retorno, são menores em comparação com o modelo vigente. Utilizando este modelo, o Poder Concedente pode também definir um vencedor para o leilão ( a concessionária que ofertar o menor valor presente das receitas ) e também se utilizar da proposta de simulação de tráfegos para a definição de um prazo máximo para a concessão, em caso de implementação do mecanismo proposto.

How resource rich countries attract foreign direct investments: a study of Western Asian countries and strategies of industrialization and diversification

Fuel is a self-depleting resource and long term dependency on this commodity alone will not suffice. An export trade oriented approach can lead to faster industrialization while diversification leads to economic sustainable growth. This research seeks to understand how countries compete for foreign direct investments, and how certain activities have the most impact in the competitive global marketplace. Research suggests that when companies decide to invest abroad, they seek only to find countries that facilitate their strategic objectives. The results conclude with appropriate levels of government accountability, credibility and visibility with the private sector, foreign direct investment is attracted by policy advocacy and policy reform. By reviewing countries such as United Arab Emirates in direct comparison to Western Asian countries, including Kuwait and Iraq with high levels of fuel exports, along with Qatar with optimistic marketplace indicators and plentitude of skills and capabilities – research seems to suggest that despite high capabilities and attractive GDP, promotional investment activities yield the highest returns using policy advocacy and reform.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

Responsabilidade social: visões e perspectivas de empresários do segmento industrial do Rio Grande do Norte

The theme Corporate Social Responsibility is relatively recent both in the academic field and in the business practice. Because of the lack of socialization of experiences and precision of concepts, there are gaps regarding the understanding of the subject and, also, how to conduct operations. This study just seeks to investigate such matter, focusing applications of social responsibility in business. It takes, as empirical field, winners of the PSQT - SESI Prize of Quality at Work in Rio Grande do Norte (2002-2007) in order to systematize the various approaches on the issue, aiming to reveal subjective visions and perspectives of the theme. It is characterized as a qualitative study, carried out by structured interview. The universe was composed by 15 companies. It was used analysis of content categorical as an axis for the interpretation of the information. Three approaches guided the analysis: Business Ethics, (normative); Business & Society (contractual); Social Issues Management (strategic). The findings are related in three ways: 1) reasons for the CSR practice; 2) the results obtained; 3) the means of CSR. It was found that the award participation occurs, mostly, linked to SESI invitations, so, as an articulated movement of industrial corporations in Brazil it occurs, also, because of the organizational commitment with the society and the possibility of internal and social growths and because of the importance attributed to the report as an instrument of consultancy. There are no indicators to check impacts of organizational interventions, in spite of the existence of planning for the actions. Social responsibility appears as a tool to reinforce the organizational image and to increase satisfaction of the employees. There is a tendency of large and medium firms to a contractual commitment while the small and the micros firms are on strategic or normative level. The analysis of the perspectives of social responsibility future revealed trends towards for strategic approach

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Fisioterapia e sociedade: ações do Sistema Único de Saúde no Rio Grande do Norte

The work has objective to present actions of Physiotherapy, developed by SUS in the State of Rio Grande do Norte; discuss under the humanization point of view such actions of health; discuss the importance of physioterapy to the Norte-Riograndense, or maybe its role in the perpetuation of actions of health centered in the binomial cause/efect. The study was done in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were obtained through public sources gathered in the health secretrary ship of this State. The collected data talks about physiotherapy sections developed by SUS in several areas of the State; such data was collected and analysed after the aproval of Ethic and Resarch Committee of Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. Concerning the physiotherapy, along with the State Health Secretaryship of the State fo Rio Grande do Norte, there were only records of attending based on cure/rehabillitation, not being observed during the curse of study, any record or action of prevention, promotion and protection towards health. It s possible to notice that there is a highligth to the interventions focusing on the treatment of illness of rheumatic origin and general complaints related to the vertebral column. Such research evidenced that the Physiotherapy in the SUS in the State priorizes the individualized attending centered in the carteziano health/illness model, where the developde actions are turned to the curative and rehabilliting attention, with role fo some or no highligth in the primary attention

1930, a Paraíba e o inconsciente político da revolução: a narrativa como ato socialmente simbólico

This work is an attempt to show that the ideological conflict that has been developed by the hegemony of the 1930 Revolution historical events in Paraíba, conceptually turned into an insoluble social contradiction. It ocurred due to imaginary or formal resolutions of the literature that ended up by altering the epistemological rules of the relation between fiction and reality. The present work is based on The unconscious politics: a narrative as a socially symbolic act , book in which all the literary or cultural texts can and should be read as symbolic resolutions to insoluble social contradictions. From string to contemporary literature this phenomenon has been registered by the several ways of textual production turning the 1930 Revolution into one of the main elements which guides the political scene of Paraíba. The ideological groups still centered on the political resentment and committed to a political conflict forged the existence of two historical truths: one which suits the liberais , the winners, and another is of the 1930 conflict. This work argues in favour of the unconscious politics of the 1930 Revolution. This thesis considers necessarily the relation that the Paraibana society maintains with its past and how this past reaches in the present the liberation of a hidden and repressed truth through its narrativization. Beyond that, how the ideological partiality generated the political resentment through the way of thinking of the rivals under the perspective of the good and evil reveals its insoluble social contradiction. Process which comprehends varied narrative forms of the mass culture products and literary production, as in the methodological perspective pointed by Fredric Jameson that all literary or cultural texts can and shall be read as symbolic resolutions of true political and social contradictions. In the case of Paraiba we will have resolutions that search for the reasons which caused the death of João Pessoa: forgery and publicity of love letters, dispute over the official version of suicide commited by João Dantas, the man who assassinated João Pessoa

Da escala médica de saúde à experiência social do saudável :diálogo entre os espaços dos bares e das academias fisiculturistas na cidade do Natal-RN

Currently, we attend a reverence of concepts ahead as health, life, youth and body. In we widen amount the ideals concerned to the healthful life, to the quality of life, the longevity and joviality and the extremities of the body represented by the illness, for the virus infection, the physical deficiency and the aging. Of the historical shades of the plague, of the hunger and the war that gagged the defenseless individual and its body, in the current days we increase the search for a full and powerful life, independent of a religious imaginary to predict the epidemic curse, the threat represented for the sick people and the incarnate divine anger in the death; or of medical science presented in the spaces of the technology and the physiology, being left fragile the social and psychological dimensions of the human confined to the patient issue and, finally, the commanded urban health politics in quantitative goals of hygienic cleaning, of the medical techniques and the education citizen. For beyond these instances, emerges in our days a plural, close and biographical agreement well of the body and welfare. On the other hand, an understanding of the healthful life and well-being that more certifies the presence of something the one that clear landmarks amongst normality and the irregularity, the esteem and the destructive vice: it has a projection of healthful life measures without conceptual models of body and health under the doctor-scientific standard occidental. This thematic one will confide in way to the enclosure for spaces to the muscles and fitness exercises and the bars from the city of Natal, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, while comprehensive interchange concerning as the individual comes dealing with the notion the body and health and, mainly, if perceiving inside of its body and its health. Amongst these two spaces of typical leisure of the modern urban phenomenon, the hedonism bodily with its muscles and salience and one another form of hedonism in the fruition of allowed drugs will be across itself in a dialogue about which social s relationships are really in game in an imaginary construction amongst an doctor-aesthetic ideal of health and the social and subjective experience in the option for a healthful life

Problemas e modelos que contribuíram com o desenvolvimento do cálculo diferencial e integral: dos gregos à Newton

This article refers to a research which tries to historically (re)construct the conceptual development of the Integral and Differential calculus, taking into account its constructing model feature, since the Greeks to Newton. These models were created by the problems that have been proposed by the history and were being modified by the time the new problems were put and the mathematics known advanced. In this perspective, I also show how a number of nature philosophers and mathematicians got involved by this process. Starting with the speculations over scientific and philosophical natures done by the ancient Greeks, it culminates with Newton s work in the 17th century. Moreover, I present and analyze the problems proposed (open questions), models generated (questions answered) as well as the religious, political, economic and social conditions involved. This work is divided into 6 chapters plus the final considerations. Chapter 1 shows how the research came about, given my motivation and experience. I outline the ways I have gone trough to refine the main question and present the subject of and the objectives of the research, ending the chapter showing the theoretical bases by which the research was carried out, naming such bases as Investigation Theoretical Fields (ITF). Chapter 2 presents each one of the theoretical bases, which was introduced in the chapter 1 s end. In this discuss, I try to connect the ITF to the research. The Chapter 3 discusses the methodological choices done considering the theoretical fields considered. So, the Chapters 4, 5 and 6 present the main corpus of the research, i.e., they reconstruct the calculus history under a perspective of model building (questions answered) from the problems given (open questions), analyzing since the ancient Greeks contribution (Chapter 4), pos- Greek, especially, the Romans contribution, Hindus, Arabian, and the contribution on the Medium Age (Chapter 5). I relate the European reborn and the contribution of the philosophers and scientists until culminate with the Newton s work (Chapter 6). In the final considerations, it finally gives an account on my impressions about the development of the research as well as the results reached here. By the end, I plan out a propose of curse of Differential and Integral Calculus, having by basis the last three chapters of the article