Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?

Arctic sea ice thickness is thought to be an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled seasonal forecast systems do not generally use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. To investigate how large this source is, a set of ensemble potential predictability experiments with a global climate model, initialized with and without knowledge of the sea ice thickness initial state, have been run. These experiments show that accurate knowledge of the sea ice thickness field is crucially important for sea ice concentration and extent forecasts up to 8 months ahead, especially in summer. Perturbing sea ice thickness also has a significant impact on the forecast error in Arctic 2 m temperature a few months ahead. These results suggest that advancing capabilities to observe and assimilate sea ice thickness into coupled forecast systems could significantly increase skill.

Washington's growth and opportunity act or Beijing's 'Overarching Brilliance': will African governments choose neither?

Growing criticism of Chinese engagement in Africa centres on the risk to African development posed by China's aggressive export policies and the threat to the Washington Consensus and African governance posed by China's 'non-interference' approach to engagement. This article challenges both these assumptions. The growth of Chinese trade has a wide range of impacts, depending on the sector in question, and the current terms of trade Washington extends to Africa under the auspices of the AGOA do not result in uniformly beneficial effects. With regard to African governance, it is argued that the 'Washington Consensus' has been based on competing and often muddled perceptions of US national interest. This fact tempers the regret felt at Washington's loss of influence over the good governance agenda. Evidence is provided to show that China can work within properly regulated countries and industries, if the African governments in question can provide fair, efficient and transparent environments in which to operate.

How will the stratosphere affect climate change?

Changes in stratospheric chemistry and circulation associated with ozone recovery may affect the patterns of future climate change.

Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

Progress report from the strategic sanctuary for the destruction of free will

Progress Report from the Strategic Sanctuary for the Destruction of Free Will presents a new work combining film, music and installation that juxtaposes the setting of the institution with the aesthetics of psychedelia.Progress Report from the Strategic Sanctuary for the Destruction of Free Will is an installation, film and sound work that takes over the gallery. Using plain white card, it distorts the structure of the gallery’s architecture, producing a paranoid shrunken space. Inside this space, performers in cardboard costumes re-enact abstracted, broken gestures drawn from video documentation of acid trips, psychedelic dancing, rehab sessions and radical psychotherapy workshops. Progress Report from the Strategic Sanctuary for the Destruction of Free Will has been formed through Pil and Galia Kollectiv’s research into the anti-psychiatry movement, their interests in counter cultural movements and their studies around biopolitics and the proliferation of societal medication. In 1958, having had a life changing experience with LSD, former alcoholic Charles Dederich founded Synanon, a drug rehabilitation program based on residential care and an aggressive form of group therapy called ‘The Game’. The organisation gradually evolved into a controversial alternative community, described in a critical pamphlet as creating Strategic Sanctuaries for the Destruction of Free Will, “a subversive program for mixing delinquents and lefties”. In 1984, anti-psychiatrist R. D. Laing described tranquillizers as chemical straight jackets. With our growing understanding of the plasticity of the brain and the potential to shape it, the tension between liberation and control in the struggle over the mind continues to define our relationship to labour, culture and production. Interrogating these ideas, the exhibition poses the question of whether a collective body can overcome the solipsism of the incommunicable experience of the individual mind.

Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sector transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agro-processing, the emergence of “consumption cities” and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Have Biofuel, Will Travel: A Colorful Experiment and a Different Approach To Teach the Undergraduate Laboratory

The substitution of petroleum-based fuels with those from renewable sources has gained momentum worldwide. A UV-vis experiment for the quantitative analysis of biofuels (bioethanol or biodiesel) in (petroleum-based) diesel oil has been developed. Before the experiment, students were given a quiz on biofuels, and then they were asked to suggest a suitable UV-vis experiment for the quantification of biofuels in diesel oil. After discussing the results of the quiz, the experiment was conducted. This included the determination of lambda(max) of the medium-dependent, that is, solvatochromic, visible absorption band of the probe 2,6-bis[4-(tert-butyl)phenyl]-4-{2,4,6-tris[4-(tert-butyl)phenyl]pyridinium-1-yl}phenolate as a function of fuel composition. The students appreciated that the subject was linked to a daily situation and that they were asked to suggest the experiment. This experiment served to introduce the phenomena of solvation and solvatochromism.

What is convergence and how will it affect my life?

Convergence is a revolutionary and evolutionary form of journalism that is emerging in many parts of the world. As a student graduating from a journalism program in the early 21 st century, you need to know about convergence because it is likely to influence the way your career evolves. Over the course of the next decade, you probably will work in several media platforms, perhaps with different companies, but also possibly with the same company but doing varied forms of journalism. All journalists need to know how to tell stories in all media, and how to write appropriately for those media, as preparation for this new era.

"I will start treatment when I think the time is right":HIV-positive gay men talk about their decision not to access antiretroviral therapy.

In a qualitative study, 20 HIV-infected Australian gay men were interviewed about their decision not to access antiretroviral drug therapy. The main reasons given for the decision were fear of side effects; fear of long-term damage to body organs; the inconvenience of the treatment regimens; belief that the regimen's demands would be a threat to morale; and belief that there was no reason to start therapy in the absence of AIDS-related symptoms. Actions taken by the men to monitor and maintain their health included seeing a doctor regularly; having regular T-cell and viral load tests; and trying to maintain a positive outlook by not letting HIV/AIDS 'take over' their lives. Almost half the men considered they had been subjected to unreasonable pressure to access therapy and there was considerable pride at having resisted this pressure. The findings suggest that the men disagreed with the biomedical model for managing HIV/AIDS only on the question of if and when to access therapy. They also suggest that underlying the men's dissent from the biomedical model was a different mode of thinking than is required by the model: while the model demands thinking that is abstract, the men focused strongly on factors close to the 'here and now' of immediate experience. The practical implications of the findings are explored.

Snowballing obesity: Australians will get run over if they just sit there.

* Overweight and obesity are very common in Australian adults (56%) and children (27%). * Rates of overweight and obesity are snowballing and will place greater burdens on health services for the treatment and care of chronic diseases. * Prevention is urgently required from health, social and economic perspectives, but the response to date has been inadequate.
* A long-term, sustained action plan starting with a focus on young people is needed. This should particularly address the “obesogenic” environments causing the epidemic. * Although whole-of-government action is required, support from and involvement by parents, carers, community leaders, healthcare professionals, teachers, childcare workers, urban planners, recreation managers, food manufacturers, employers, advertisers, and communicators is essential. *  The health sector should take the lead, but success will only come from concerted and integrated action across the whole of society. * There are now signs of political commitment to addressing overweight and obesity. Doctors should get behind this and help mobilise community support.