Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Benchmarking numerical models of brittle thrust wedges

We report quantitative results from three brittle thrust wedge experiments, comparing numerical results directly with each other and with corresponding analogue results. We first test whether the participating codes reproduce predictions from analytical critical taper theory. Eleven codes pass the stable wedge test, showing negligible internal deformation and maintaining the initial surface slope upon horizontal translation over a frictional interface. Eight codes participated in the unstable wedge test that examines the evolution of a wedge by thrust formation from a subcritical state to the critical taper geometry. The critical taper is recovered, but the models show two deformation modes characterised by either mainly forward dipping thrusts or a series of thrust pop-ups. We speculate that the two modes are caused by differences in effective basal boundary friction related to different algorithms for modelling boundary friction. The third experiment examines stacking of forward thrusts that are translated upward along a backward thrust. The results of the seven codes that run this experiment show variability in deformation style, number of thrusts, thrust dip angles and surface slope. Overall, our experiments show that numerical models run with different numerical techniques can successfully simulate laboratory brittle thrust wedge models at the cm-scale. In more detail, however, we find that it is challenging to reproduce sandbox-type setups numerically, because of frictional boundary conditions and velocity discontinuities. We recommend that future numerical-analogue comparisons use simple boundary conditions and that the numerical Earth Science community defines a plasticity test to resolve the variability in model shear zones.

Benchmarking analogue models of brittle thrust wedges

We performed a quantitative comparison of brittle thrust wedge experiments to evaluate the variability among analogue models and to appraise the reproducibility and limits of model interpretation. Fifteen analogue modeling laboratories participated in this benchmark initiative. Each laboratory received a shipment of the same type of quartz and corundum sand and all laboratories adhered to a stringent model building protocol and used the same type of foil to cover base and sidewalls of the sandbox. Sieve structure, sifting height, filling rate, and details on off-scraping of excess sand followed prescribed procedures. Our analogue benchmark shows that even for simple plane-strain experiments with prescribed stringent model construction techniques, quantitative model results show variability, most notably for surface slope, thrust spacing and number of forward and backthrusts. One of the sources of the variability in model results is related to slight variations in how sand is deposited in the sandbox. Small changes in sifting height, sifting rate, and scraping will result in slightly heterogeneous material bulk densities, which will affect the mechanical properties of the sand, and will result in lateral and vertical differences in peak and boundary friction angles, as well as cohesion values once the model is constructed. Initial variations in basal friction are inferred to play the most important role in causing model variability. Our comparison shows that the human factor plays a decisive role, and even when one modeler repeats the same experiment, quantitative model results still show variability. Our observations highlight the limits of up-scaling quantitative analogue model results to nature or for making comparisons with numerical models. The frictional behavior of sand is highly sensitive to small variations in material state or experimental set-up, and hence, it will remain difficult to scale quantitative results such as number of thrusts, thrust spacing, and pop-up width from model to nature.

Age models for sediment cores off Peru

Planktonic foraminiferal faunas of the southeast Pacific indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) have varied by as much as 8-10°C in the Peru Current, and by ?5-7°C along the equator, over the past 150,000 years. Changes in SST at times such as the Last Glacial Maximum reflect incursion of high-latitude species Globorotalia inflata and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma into the eastern boundary current and as far north as the equator. A simple heat budget model of the equatorial Pacific shows that observed changes in Peru Current advection can account for about half of the total variability in equatorial SSTs. The remaining changes in equatorial SST, which are likely related to local changes in upwelling or pycnocline depth, precede changes in polar climates as recorded by d18O. This partitioning of processes in eastern equatorial Pacific SST reveals that net ice-age cooling here reflects first a rapid response of equatorial upwelling to insolation, followed by a later response to changes in the eastern boundary current associated with high-latitude climate (which closely resembles variations in atmospheric CO2 as recorded in the Vostok ice core). Although precise mechanisms responsible for the equatorial upwelling component of climate change remain uncertain, one likely candidate that may operate independently of the ice sheets is insolation-driven changes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency. Early responses of equatorial SST detected both here and elsewhere highlight the sensitivity of tropical systems to small changes in seasonal insolation. The scale of tropical changes we have observed are substantially greater than model predictions, suggesting a need for further quantitative assessment of processes associated with long-term climate change.

Reducing errors in simulated satellite views of clouds from large-scale models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

Climatic variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP)

The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue, with conflicting evidence for the degree of 'teleconnection' between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific, a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20-10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand, through Australia to Indonesia, supported by 125 calibrated C-14 ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP, most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A, respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic, however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations, and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Instantiating deformable models with a neural net

Deformable models are an attractive approach to recognizing objects which have considerable within-class variability such as handwritten characters. However, there are severe search problems associated with fitting the models to data which could be reduced if a better starting point for the search were available. We show that by training a neural network to predict how a deformable model should be instantiated from an input image, such improved starting points can be obtained. This method has been implemented for a system that recognizes handwritten digits using deformable models, and the results show that the search time can be significantly reduced without compromising recognition performance. © 1997 Academic Press.

Wealth effects of mergers and acquisitions for US firms: using alternative pricing models

This empirical study employs a different methodology to examine the change in wealth associated with mergers and acquisitions (M&As) for US firms. Specifically, we employ the standard CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model and the Carhart four-factor models within the OLS and GJR-GARCH estimation methods to test the behaviour of the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs). Whilst the standard CAPM captures the variability of stock returns with the overall market, the Fama-French factors capture the risk factors that are important to investors. Additionally, augmenting the Fama-French three-factor model with the Carhart momentum factor to generate the four-factor captures additional pricing elements that may affect stock returns. Traditionally, estimates of abnormal returns (ARs) in M&As situations rely on the standard OLS estimation method. However, the standard OLS will provide inefficient estimates of the ARs if the data contain ARCH and asymmetric effects. To minimise this problem of estimation efficiency we re-estimated the ARs using GJR-GARCH estimation method. We find that there is variation in the results both as regards the choice models and estimation methods. Besides these variations in the estimated models and the choice of estimation methods, we also tested whether the ARs are affected by the degree of liquidity of the stocks and the size of the firm. We document significant positive post-announcement cumulative ARs (CARs) for target firm shareholders under both the OLS and GJR-GARCH methods across all three methodologies. However, post-event CARs for acquiring firm shareholders were insignificant for both sets of estimation methods under the three methodologies. The GJR-GARCH method seems to generate larger CARs than those of the OLS method. Using both market capitalization and trading volume as a measure of liquidity and the size of the firm, we observed strong return continuations in the medium firms relative to small and large firms for target shareholders. We consistently observed market efficiency in small and large firm. This implies that target firms for small and large firms overreact to new information resulting in a more efficient market. For acquirer firms, our measure of liquidity captures strong return continuations for small firms under the OLS estimates for both CAPM and Fama-French three-factor models, whilst under the GJR-GARCH estimates only for Carhart model. Post-announcement bootstrapping simulated CARs confirmed our earlier results.

An aspect-oriented and model-driven approach for managing dynamic variability

Constructing and executing distributed systems that can adapt to their operating context in order to sustain provided services and the service qualities are complex tasks. Managing adaptation of multiple, interacting services is particularly difficult since these services tend to be distributed across the system, interdependent and sometimes tangled with other services. Furthermore, the exponential growth of the number of potential system configurations derived from the variabilities of each service need to be handled. Current practices of writing low-level reconfiguration scripts as part of the system code to handle run time adaptation are both error prone and time consuming and make adaptive systems difficult to validate and evolve. In this paper, we propose to combine model driven and aspect oriented techniques to better cope with the complexities of adaptive systems construction and execution, and to handle the problem of exponential growth of the number of possible configurations. Combining these techniques allows us to use high level domain abstractions, simplify the representation of variants and limit the problem pertaining to the combinatorial explosion of possible configurations. In our approach we also use models at runtime to generate the adaptation logic by comparing the current configuration of the system to a composed model representing the configuration we want to reach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Using architecture models to support the generation and operation of component-based adaptive systems

Modelling architectural information is particularly important because of the acknowledged crucial role of software architecture in raising the level of abstraction during development. In the MDE area, the level of abstraction of models has frequently been related to low-level design concepts. However, model-driven techniques can be further exploited to model software artefacts that take into account the architecture of the system and its changes according to variations of the environment. In this paper, we propose model-driven techniques and dynamic variability as concepts useful for modelling the dynamic fluctuation of the environment and its impact on the architecture. Using the mappings from the models to implementation, generative techniques allow the (semi) automatic generation of artefacts making the process more efficient and promoting software reuse. The automatic generation of configurations and reconfigurations from models provides the basis for safer execution. The architectural perspective offered by the models shift focus away from implementation details to the whole view of the system and its runtime change promoting high-level analysis. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

The use of maturity models in improving project management performance:an empirical investigation

Purpose – The purpose of the paper was to conduct an empirical investigation to explore the impact of project management maturity models (PMMMs) on improving project performance. Design/methodology/approach – The investigation used a cross-case analysis involving over 90 individuals in seven organisations. Findings – The findings of the empirical investigation indicate that PMMMs demonstrate very high levels of variability in individual's assessment of project management maturity. Furthermore, at higher levels of maturity, the type of performance improvement adopted following their application is related to the type of PMMM used in the assessment. The paradox of the unreliability of PMMMs and their widespread acceptance is resolved by calling upon the “wisdom of crowds” phenomenon which has implications for the use of maturity model assessments in other arena. Research limitations/implications – The investigation does have the usual issues associated with case research, but the steps that have been taken in the cross-case construction and analysis have improved the overall robustness and extendibility of the findings. Practical implications – The tendency for PMMMs to shape improvements based on their own inherent structure needs further understanding. Originality/value – The use of empirical methods to investigate the link between project maturity models and extant changes in project management performance is highly novel and the findings that result from this have added resonance.

Evidence of climate variability and tropical cyclone activity from diatom assemblage dynamics in coastal southwest Florida

Estuaries are dynamic on many spatial and temporal scales. Distinguishing effects of unpredictable events from cyclical patterns can be challenging but important to predict the influence of press and pulse drivers in the face of climate change. Diatom assemblages respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions and characterize change on multiple time scales. The goals of this research were to 1) characterize diatom assemblages in the Charlotte Harbor watershed, their relationships with water quality parameters, and how they change in response to climate; and 2) use assemblages in sediment cores to interpret past climate changes and tropical cyclone activity. ^ Diatom assemblages had strong relationships with salinity and nutrient concentrations, and a quantitative tool was developed to reconstruct past values of these parameters. Assemblages were stable between the wet and dry seasons, and were more similar to each other than to assemblages found following a tropical cyclone. Diatom assemblages following the storm showed a decrease in dispersion among sites, a pattern that was consistent on different spatial scales but may depend on hydrological management regimes. ^ Analysis of sediment cores from two southwest Florida estuaries showed that locally-developed diatom inference models can be applied with caution on regional scales. Large-scale climate changes were suggested by environmental reconstructions in both estuaries, but with slightly different temporal pacing. Estimates of salinity and nutrient concentrations suggested that major hydrological patterns changed at approximately 5.5 and 3 kyrs BP. A highly temporally-resolved sediment core from Charlotte Harbor provided evidence for past changes that correspond with known climate records. Diatom assemblages had significant relationships with the three-year average index values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Assemblages that predicted low salinity and high total phosphorus also had the lowest dispersion and corresponded with some major storms in the known record, which together may provide a proxy for evidence of severe storms in the paleoecological record. ^