Prognostic Value of a New Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameter in Chronic Heart Failure: Oxygen Uptake Efficiency at Peak Exercise - Comparison with Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope

INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

Prognostic Value of VEGF in Patients Submitted to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

We examined the longitudinal changes of VEGF levels after percutaneous coronary intervention for predicting major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. VEGF was measured in 94 CAD patients' serum before revascularization, 1-month and 1-year after. Independently of clinical presentation, patients had lower VEGF concentration than a cohort of healthy subjects (median, IQ: 15.9, 9.0-264 pg/mL versus 419, 212-758 pg/mL; P < 0.001) at baseline. VEGF increased to 1-month (median, IQ: 276, 167-498 pg/mL; P < 0.001) and remained steady to 1-year (median, IQ: 320, 173-497 pg/mL; P < 0.001) approaching control levels. Drug eluting stent apposition and previous medication intake produced a less steep VEGF evolution after intervention (P < 0.05). Baseline VEGF concentration <40.8 pg/mL conveyed increased risk for MACE in a 5-year follow-up. Results reflect a positive role of VEGF in recovery and support its importance in CAD prognosis.

A Prospective Assessment of Renal Transplantation Versus Haemodialysis: Which Therapeutic Modality Is Good Value for Society?

Background: Economic evaluations help health authorities facing budget constraints. This study compares the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and costs in patient subgroups on haemodialysis (HD) and renal transplantation (KT). Methods: In a prospective study with follow-up of 1-3 years, we performed a costutility analysis of KT vs. HD, adopting a lifetime horizon. A societal perspective was taken. Costs for organ procurement, KT eligibility, transplant surgery and follow-up of living donors were included. Key clinical events were recorded. HRQOL was assessed using the EuroQol instrument. Results: The HRQOL remained stable on HD patients. After KT, mean utility score improved at 3 months while mean EQ-VAS scores showed a sustained improvement. Mean annual cost for HD was 32,567.57€. Mean annual costs for KT in the year-1 and in subsequent years were, 60,210.09€ and 12,956.77€ respectively. Cost for initial hospitalization averaged 18,740.74€. HLA-mismatches increased costs by 75% for initial hospitalization (p < 0.001) and 41% in the year-1 (p < 0.05), and duplicate the risk of readmission in the year-1 (p < 0.05). The incremental costutility ratio was 5,534.46€/QALY, increasing 35% when costs for organ procurement were added. KT costs were 41,541.63€ more but provided additional 7.51 QALY. Conclusions: The KT is cost-effective compared with HD. Public funding should reflect the value created by the intervention and adapt to the organ demand.

The hidden value behind capital structure decisions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

Business model: What should be the strategy used by Smart Galp to implement and potentiate its value proposition in the Portuguese market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: risk factors and clinical outcome in non-intensive-care units

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is spread out in hospitals across different regions of the world and is regarded as the major agent of nosocomial infections, causing infections such as skin and soft tissue pneumonia and sepsis. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for methicillin-resistance in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (BSI) and the predictive factors for death. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of fifty-one patients presenting bacteraemia due to S. aureus between September 2006 and September 2008 was analysed. Staphylococcu aureus samples were obtained from blood cultures performed by clinical hospital microbiology laboratory from the Uberlândia Federal University. Methicillinresistance was determined by growth on oxacillin screen agar and antimicrobial susceptibility by means of the disk diffusion method. RESULTS: We found similar numbers of MRSA (56.8%) and methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) (43.2%) infections, and the overall hospital mortality ratio was 47%, predominantly in MRSA group (70.8% vs. 29.2%) (p=0.05). Age (p=0.02) was significantly higher in MRSA patients as also was the use of central venous catheter (p=0.02). The use of two or more antimicrobial agents (p=0.03) and the length of hospital stay prior to bacteraemia superior to seven days (p=0.006) were associated with mortality. High odds ratio value was observed in cardiopathy as comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several risk factors associated with MRSA and MSSA infection, the use of two or more antimicrobial agents was the unique independent variable associated with mortality.

Risk-benefit assessment of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination, anti-phenolic glycolipid I serology, and Mitsuda test response: 10-year follow-up of household contacts of leprosy patients

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Despite multidrug therapy, leprosy remains a public health issue. The intradermal Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, Mitsuda test (lepromin skin test), and anti-phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) serology are widely used in leprosy studies and have shown great epidemiological value. METHODS: This longitudinal study evaluated the relative risks and benefits of these three tools by comparing results observed in household contacts (HHCs) of leprosy patients who developed leprosy with those of HHCs who did not in a population of 2,992 individuals monitored during a 10-year period. RESULTS : Seventy-five (2.5%) new leprosy cases were diagnosed, including 28 (0.9%) co-prevalent cases. Therefore, for the risk-benefit assessment, 47 (1.6%) HHCs were considered as truly diagnosed during follow-up. The comparison between healthy and affected contacts demonstrated that not only did BCG vaccination increase protection, but boosters also increased to 95% relative risk (RR) reduction when results for having two or more scars were compared with having no scars [RR, 0.0459; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.006-0.338]. Similarly, Mitsuda reactions >7mm in induration presented 7-fold greater protection against disease development compared to reactions of 0-3mm (RR, 0.1446; 95% CI, 0.0566-0.3696). In contrast, anti-PGL-I ELISA seropositivity indicated a 5-fold RR increase for disease outcome (RR, 5.688; 95% CI, 3.2412-9.9824). The combined effect of no BCG scars, Mitsuda reaction of <7mm, and seropositivity to anti-PGL-I increased the risk for leprosy onset 8-fold (RR, 8.109; 95% CI, 5.1167-12.8511). CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of these combined assays may impose measures for leprosy control strategies.

Urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants: value of urine culture by bag specimen collection

OBJETIVE: to evaluate the efficacy of urine culture by bag specimen for the detection of neonatal urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. Retrospective study (1997) including full-term newborn infants having a positive urine culture (>100,000 CFU/ml) by bag specimen collection. The urinary tract infection diagnosis was confirmed by positive urine culture (suprapubic bladder aspiration method). The select cases were divided into three groups, according to newborn infant age at the bag specimen collection: GI (< 48 h, n = 17), GII (48 h to 7 d, n = 35) and GIII (> 7 d, n = 9). Sixty one full-term newborn infants were studied (5.1 % of total infants). The diagnosis was confirmed on 19/61 (31.1 %) of full-term infants born alive. Distribution among the groups was: GI = 2/17 (11.8 %), GII = 10//35 (28.6 %), and GIII = 7/9 (77.7 %). The most relevant clinical symptoms were: fever (GI - 100 %, GII - 91.4 %) and weight loss (GI - 35.3 %, GII - 45.7 %). Urine culture results for specimens collected by suprapubic aspiration were: E. coli GI (100 %), GII (40 %) and GIII (28.6 %), E. faecalis GI (30%), Staphylococcus coagulase-negative GII (20 %) and GIII (42.8 %), and Staphylococcus aureus GII (10 %). Correlation between positive urine culture collection (bag specimen method) and urinary tract infection diagnosis, using relative risk analysis, produced the following results: GI=0.30 (CI95% 0.08-1.15), GII=0.51 (CI 95% 0.25-1.06) and GIII=3.31 (CI95% 1.8-6.06) The most frequent urinary tract infection clinical signs in the first week were fever and weight loss, while non-specific symptomatology occurred later. E. coli was most frequent infectious agent, although from the 7th day of life, staphylococcus was noted. The urine culture (bag specimen method) was effective in detecting urinary tract infection only after the 7th day of life.

Predictive value of the ankle-brachial index in the evaluation of intermittent claudication

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the ankle-brachial index (ABI) could be used to predict the prognosis for a patient with intermittent claudication (IC). We studied 611 patients prospectively during 28 months of follow-up. We analyzed the predictive power of using various levels of ABI - 0.30 to 0.70 at 0.05 increments - in terms of the measure's specificity (association with a favorable outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy) and sensitivity (association with a poor outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy). We found that using an ABI of 0.30 as a cut-off value produced the lowest margin of error overall, but the predictive power was still low with respect to identifying the patients with a poor prognosis after non-aggressive therapeutic treatment. Further study is needed to perhaps identify a second factor that could increase the sensitivity of the test.

Assessing fraud risk of selecção, contratação e manutenção de fornecedores process of Sonae Investimentos

The present Work Project (WP) is the result of Sonae’s concern with fraud risk, seeking to implement a method that formally describes and evaluates it in its various forms. In a context of limited human, capital, time and tools’ resources, the Internal Audit (IA) department of the company developed a framework to raise the awareness of top management and identify which processes of its value chain present a higher level of exposure to fraud, with the purpose of redirecting attention to those and prioritizing the creation of new mechanisms to monitor its KPIs’ dynamics.

Lewis Score - Prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel Crohn's disease

Background and aims: Small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) allows mapping of small bowel inflammation in Crohn’s disease (CD). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of the severity of inflammatory lesions, quantified by the Lewis score (LS), in patients with isolated small bowel CD. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in which 53 patients with isolated small bowel CD were submitted to SBCE at the time of diagnosis. The Lewis score was calculated and patients had at least 12 months of follow-up after diagnosis. As adverse events we defined disease flare requiring systemic corticosteroid therapy, hospitalization and/or surgery during follow-up. We compared the incidence of adverse events in 2 patient subgroups, i.e. those with moderate or severe inflammatory activity (LS =790) and those with mild inflammatory activity (135 = LS < 790). Results: The LS was =790 in 22 patients (41.5%), while 58.5% presented with LS between 135 and 790. Patients with a higher LS were more frequently smokers (p = 0.01), males (p = 0017) and under immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, moderate to severe disease at SBCE was independently associated with corticosteroid therapy during follow-up, with a relative risk (RR) of 5 (p = 0.011; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–17.8), and for hospitalization, with an RR of 13.7 (p = 0 .028; 95% CI 1.3–141.9). Conclusion: In patients with moderate to severe inflammatory activity there were higher prevalences of corticosteroid therapy demand and hospitalization during follow-up. Thus, stratifying the degree of small bowel inflammatory activity with SBCE and LS calculation at the time of diagnosis provided relevant prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel CD.

Are apolipoproteins A and B better than lipoproteins for assessing risk of obstructive coronary heart disease?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether apolipoproteins A-I (Apo A-I) and B (Apo B) have, higher ensitivity (SN), specificity (SP) and positive predictive value (PPV) than lipoproteins (LP), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), and triglycerides (TGL) in assessing the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: This is a transversal case-control study of 241 patients, who were divided into two groups: 1) 145 patients with CHD, and 2) 96 patients without coronary disease. A model of logistic regression to evaluate the relation between the LPs and CHD was developed in which variables with a p-alpha <0.1 were included. RESULTS: Apo A-I levels were higher in the patients without CHD, (OR 2.08, CI 1.20-3.57). There were no statistical differences between the values of Apo A-I and the remaining lipid fractions (Apo A-I: 67%; Apo B: 100%; PPV: TC= 71%; TGC=71%; HDL=71%; LDL=71%). The costs of the tests in Reais were as follows: Apo A-I: R$ 56.60; Apo B-100: R$ 56.60; TC: R$ 9.94; HDL: R$ 21.30; LDL: R$ 28.40; TGL: R$ 14.20. CONCLUSION: Levels of Apo A-I and Apo B have no advantage over conventional lipoproteins in predicting the risk of CHD, despite the statistical association between Apo A-I and CHD; in addition, their costs are higher than those of the conventional lipoproteins.

Laboratory assessment of the hypertensive individual. Value of the main guidelines for high blood pressure

OBJECTIVE: To determine if abnormal laboratory findings are more common in individuals with hypertension and in those with other risk factors, such as obesity, smoking and alcohol ingestion. METHODS: A study was carried out in the general outpatient clinics of a university hospital (145 individuals without previous diagnosis of hypertension) and the following variables were assessed: high blood pressure (as defined by the VI Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection and Treatment of High Blood Pressure - VI JNC), obesity [calculated using body mass index (BMI)], tobacco use, and alcoholic ingestion. The laboratory examinations consisted of the following tests: hemogram, glycemia, uric acid, potassium, total/HDL-fraction cholesterol, triglycerides, calcium and creatinine. RESULTS: High blood pressure was not associated with a higher number of abnormal laboratory tests. Hypertensive individuals with a BMI > or = 25kg/m² or normotensive obese individuals, however, had a higher frequency of diabetes (12X), hypertriglyceridemia (3X), and hypercholesterolemia (2X), as compared with hypertensive individuals with BMI <25kg/m² and preobese/normal weight normotensive individuals. CONCLUSION: High blood pressure is not associated with a higher frequency of abnormal laboratory tests. The association of high blood pressure and obesity, however, increases the detection of diabetes and dyslipidemias.

Predictive value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.