862 resultados para Value at Risk (VaR)


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Preputial prolapse is an obvious condition affecting bulls from many breeds. Unfortunately, the losses in production and welfare concerns associated with preputial prolapse can remain undetected for long periods of time in the extensive beef areas of northern Australia where the bulls are not inspected regularly. Thus, there is a critical need to identify the structural factors predisposing to preputial prolapse in young bulls so that they can be culled early. Despite there being no firm scientific evidence of an association between preputial eversion and preputial prolapse, it seems logical that the increased exposure of the sensitive prepuce as a consequence of preputial eversion may increase the risk of bulls developing preputial pathology, in particular preputial prolapse. This may be particularly relevant in Bos indicus bulls as they have a more pendulous sheath and thus eversion of the prepuce may be associated with a greater risk of injury to the prepuce compared to that in Bos taurus bulls. Further, studies of preputial eversion in Bos taurus bulls have concluded that there is an association between polledness and increased prevalence and severity (length of everted prepuce and duration of eversion) of preputial eversion due primarily to the absence or poor development of the caudal preputial muscles. No similar definitive work in Bos indicus bulls has been conducted and thus anatomical studies reported in this thesis were conducted to determine if a similar association occurred in Bos indicus bulls. A survey of a sample of large beef breeding herds in northern Australia found that preputial prolapse is a significant problem in Bos indicus and Bos indicus derived bulls and affected both young and older bulls. The importance of preputial prolapse confirmed the value of further research into the causes of this problem. A series of anatomical studies confirmed that preputial eversion in Bos indicus derived bulls was not more prevalent in polled bulls than horned bulls and was not associated with deficiency of the caudal preputial muscles as was established in Bos taurus bulls. An anatomical study of Bos indicus derived bulls with preputial prolapse found that preputial prolapse occurred in horned bulls of varying ages and these bulls did not have any evidence of deficiency in the caudal preputial muscles. However, preputial prolapse was observed in young polled bulls that had poorly developed or absent caudal preputial muscles. It was concluded that deficiency of the caudal preputial muscles in polled Bos indicus derived bulls may predispose to preputial prolapse at an early age, but no predisposing anatomical factors were found for horned Bos indicus derived bulls. In these studies, preputial eversion and preputial prolapse were found in horned Bos indicus derived bulls that did not have any preputial muscle deficiency and it was noted that preputial eversion was not related to the length of the prepuce. Further studies confirmed that preputial eversion was linearly and consistently associated with position of the glans penis within the sheath in Bos indicus derived bulls, and movement of the glans penis towards the preputial orifice consistently resulted in preputial eversion in these bulls. A method to objectively measure the relationship between movement of the glans penis within the sheath and preputial eversion was developed. Studies in humans have linked function of some abdominal muscles to function of the pelvic organs. This relationship was investigated in Bos indicus derived bulls to determine whether the function of specific abdominal muscles affected position of the penis in the sheath. Using the method developed to objectively measure the relationship between penis movement and preputial eversion, the abdominal muscles that potentially were associated with movement of the glans penis or preputial eversion were examined but no significant relationships were observed. In the anatomical study of Bos indicus derived bulls not affected with preputial prolapse a more pendulous sheath was associated with increased prevalence of preputial eversion. This relationship was confirmed for horned and polled bulls in the penis movement studies. Bos indicus derived bulls with more pendulous sheaths evert their prepuces more than bulls with less pendulous sheaths thus increasing the risk of damage to the prepuce either from the environment, other bulls, or from them inadvertently stepping on the everted prepuce when they get to their feet. Culling Bos indicus derived bulls with more pendulous sheaths should reduce the incidence of preputial eversion and possibly preputial prolapse. The anatomical study of Bos indicus derived bulls that did not have preputial prolapse demonstrates that there are herds of bulls where the polled bulls do not have any evidence of deficiency of the caudal preputial iv muscles. There is a need to develop a practical and cost effective test to identify polled Bos indicus bulls that have a deficiency in their caudal preputial muscles.

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Arguing the value of effective HRM practice has long been a focus in the HRM literature. However, there is also a case for identifying the risks presented by inappropriate or absent HRM practices. Although risk management has been established in the broader management literature for over two decades, human resource related risks have not featured as prominently as other types of risks. HRM as a discipline has a role to play in addressing this situation and raising awareness of human resource issues as risks for the organization. A review of papers published since the year 2000 in a broad range of high quality management journals, identifies that limited research has thus far taken a risk management perspective on human resources. Although the HRM and risk management disciplines stand to benefit from drawing the two areas together, this review concludes that further research and development of the phenomenon of human resource risk management is needed.

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Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips(for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in mperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design. This calculator forms part of the free interactive website www.timbers.com.au.

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Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.

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Background: As the human body ages, the arteries gradually lose their elasticity and become stiffer. Although inevitable, this process is influenced by hereditary and environmental factors. Interestingly, many classic cardiovascular risk factors affect the arterial stiffness. During the last decade, accelerated arterial stiffening has been recognized as an important cardiovascular risk factor associated with increased mortality as well as with several chronic disorders. Objectives: This thesis examines the role of arterial stiffness in relation to variations in a physiological feature in healthy individuals. In addition, the effect on arterial stiffness of an acute transitory disease and the effect of a chronic disease are studied. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes the prognostic value of a marker of arterial stiffness in individuals with chronic disease. Finally, a potential method of reducing arterial stiffness is evaluated. Material and study design: The first study examines pulse wave reflection and pulse wave velocity in relation to muscle fibre distribution in healthy middle-aged men. In the second study, pulse wave reflection in women with current or previous preeclampsia is compared to a healthy control group. The effect of aging on the different blood pressure indices in patients with type 1 diabetes is examined in the third study, whereas the fourth paper studies the relation between these blood pressure indices and mortality in type 2 diabetes. The fifth study evaluates how intake of a fermented milk product containing bioactive peptides affects pulse wave reflection in individuals with mild hypertension. Results and conclusions: Muscle fibre type distribution is not an independent determinant of arterial stiffness in middle-aged males. Pulse wave reflection is increased in pregnant women with preeclampsia, but not in previously preeclamptic non-pregnant women. Patients with type 1 diabetes have a higher and more rapidly increasing pulse pressure, which suggests accelerated arterial stiffening. In elderly type 2 diabetic patients, very high and very low levels of pulse pressure are associated with higher mortality. Intake of milk-derived bioactive peptides reduces pulse wave reflection in hypertensive males but not in hypertensive females.

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Autoimmune diseases are more common in dogs than in humans and are already threatening the future of some highly predisposed dog breeds. Susceptibility to autoimmune diseases is controlled by environmental and genetic factors, especially the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) gene region. Dogs show a similar physiology, disease presentation and clinical response as humans, making them an excellent disease model for autoimmune diseases common to both species. The genetic background of canine autoimmune disorders is largely unknown, but recent annotation of the dog genome and subsequent development of new genomic tools offer a unique opportunity to map novel autoimmune genes in various breeds. Many autoimmune disorders show breed-specific enrichment, supporting a strong genetic background. Furthermore, the presence of hundreds of breeds as genetic isolates facilitates gene mapping in complex autoimmune disorders. Identification of novel predisposing genes establishes breeds as models and may reveal novel candidate genes for the corresponding human disorders. Genetic studies will eventually shed light on common biological functions and interactions between genes and the environment. This study aimed to identify genetic risk factors in various autoimmune disorders, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-related diseases, comprising immune-mediated rheumatic disease (IMRD) and steroid-responsive meningitis arteritis (SMRA) as well as Addison s disease (AD) in Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers (NSDTRs) and chronic superficial keratitis (CSK) in German Shepherd dogs (GSDs). We used two different approaches to identify genetic risk factors. Firstly, a candidate gene approach was applied to test the potential association of MHC class II, also known as a dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) in canine species. Secondly, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed to identify novel risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD in NSDTRs. We identified DLA risk haplotypes for an IMRD subphenotype of SLE-related disease, AD and CSK, but not in SMRA, and show that the MHC class II gene region is a major genetic risk factor in canine autoimmune diseases. An elevated risk was found for IMRD in dogs that carried the DLA-DRB1*00601/DQA1*005011/DQB1*02001 haplotype (OR = 2.0, 99% CI = 1.03-3.95, p = 0.01) and for ANA-positive IMRD dogs (OR = 2.3, 99% CI = 1.07-5.04, p-value 0.007). We also found that DLA-DRB1*01502/DQA*00601/DQB1*02301 haplotype was significantly associated with AD in NSDTRs (OR = 2.1, CI = 1.0-4.4, P = 0.044) and the DLA-DRB1*01501/DQA1*00601/DQB1*00301 haplotype with the CSK in GSDs (OR=2.67, CI=1.17-6.44, p= 0.02). In addition, we found that homozygosity for the risk haplotype increases the risk for each disease phenotype and that an overall homozygosity for the DLA region predisposes to CSK and AD. Our results have enabled the development of genetic tests to improve breeding practices by avoiding the production of puppies homozygous for risk haplotypes. We also performed the first successful GWAS for a complex disease in dogs. With less than 100 cases and 100 controls, we identified five risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD and found strong candidate genes involved in a novel T-cell activation pathway. We show that an inbred dog population has fewer risk factors, but each of them has a stronger genetic risk. Ongoing studies aim to identify the causative mutations and bring new knowledge to help diagnostics, treatment and understanding of the aetiology of SLE-related diseases.

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Managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity has increased rapidly around the world. Early empirical research showed that pay-for-performance sensitivity resulting from stock ownership and stock options appeared to be quite low during the 1970s and early 1980s in the U.S. However, recent empirical research from the U.S. shows an enormous increase in pay-for-performance sensitivity. The global trend has also reached Finland, where stock options have become a major ingredient of executive compensation. The fact that stock options seem to be an appealing form of remuneration from a theoretical point of view combined with the observation that the use of this compensation form has increased significantly during the recent years, implies that research on the dynamics of stock option compensation is highly relevant for the academic community, as well as for practitioners and regulators. The research questions of the thesis are analyzed in four separate essays. The first essay examines whether stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms are consistent with predictions from principal-agent theory. The second essay explores one of the major puzzles in the compensation literature by studying determinants of stock option contract design. In theory, optimal contract design should vary according to firm characteristics. However, in the U.S., variation in contract design seems to be surprisingly low, a phenomenon generally attributed to tax and accounting considerations. In Finland, however, firms are not subject to stringent contracting restrictions, and the variation in contract design tends, in fact, to be quite substantial. The third essay studies the impact of price- and risk incentives arising from stock option compensation on firm investment. In addition, the essay explores one of the most debated questions in the literature, in particular, the relation between incentives and firm performance. Finally, several strands of literature in both economics and corporate finance hypothesize that economic uncertainty is related to corporate decision-making. Previous research has shown that risk tends to slow down firm investment. In the fourth essay, it is hypothesized that firm risk slows down growth from a more universal perspective. Consistent with this view, it is shown that risk not only tends to slow down firm investment, but also employment growth. Moreover, the essay explores whether the nature of firms’ compensation policies, in particular, whether firms make use of stock option compensation, affects the relation between risk and firm growth. In summary, the four essays contribute to the current understanding of stock options as a form of equity incentives, and how incentives and risk affect corporate decision-making. By this, the thesis promotes the knowledge related to the modern theory of the firm.

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This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility needs not decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment.

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This paper analyzes the relations among firm-level stock option portfolio incentives, investment, and firm value based on a sample of Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing exact and complete information regarding stock option portfolio characteristics, we find some evidence that firm investment is increasing in the incentives to increase stock price (delta) and risk (vega). Furthermore, we find strong evidence of a positive relation between both incentive effects and firm value (Tobin’s Q). In contrast, when we allow for stock option incentives, investment, and firm value to be simultaneously determined, we find no evidence that investment is increasing in incentives. However, even after controlling for endogeneity, we find that both incentive effects arising from stock option compensation display a positive and significant effect on firm value. Finally, in contradiction to earlier findings, we observe that neither Tobin’s Q nor investment drives incentives.

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Electric activity of the heart consists of repeated cardiomyocyte depolarizations and repolarizations. Abnormalities in repolarization predispose to ventricular arrhythmias. In body surface electrocardiogram, ventricular repolarization generates the T wave. Several electrocardiographic measures have been developed both for clinical and research purposes to detect repolarization abnormalities. The study aim was to investigate modifiers of ventricular repolarization with the focus on the relationship of the left ventricular mass, antihypertensive drugs, and common gene variants, to electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. The prognostic value of repolarization parameters was also assessed. The study subjects originated from a population of more than 200 middle-aged hypertensive men attending the GENRES hypertension study, and from an epidemiological survey, the Health 2000 Study, including more than 6000 participants. Ventricular repolarization was analysed from digital standard 12-lead resting electrocardiograms with two QT-interval based repolarization parameters (QT interval, T-wave peak to T-wave end interval) and with a set of four T-wave morphology parameters. The results showed that in hypertensive men, a linear change in repolarization parameters is present even in the normal range of left ventricular mass, and that even mild left ventricular hypertrophy is associated with potentially adverse electrocardiographic repolarization changes. In addition, treatments with losartan, bisoprolol, amlodipine, and hydrochlorothiazide have divergent short-term effects on repolarization parameters in hypertensive men. Analyses of the general population sample showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms in KCNH2, KCNE1, and NOS1AP genes are associated with changes in QT-interval based repolarization parameters but not consistently with T-wave morphology parameters. T-wave morphology parameters, but not QT interval or T-wave peak to T-wave end interval, provided independent prognostic information on mortality. The prognostic value was specifically related to cardiovascular mortality. The results indicate that, in hypertension, altered ventricular repolarization is already present in mild left ventricular mass increase, and that commonly used antihypertensive drugs may relatively rapidly and treatment-specifically modify electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. Common variants in cardiac ion channel genes and NOS1AP gene may also modify repolarization-related arrhythmia vulnerability. In the general population, T-wave morphology parameters may be useful in the risk assessment of cardiovascular mortality.

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The existence of an optimal feedback law is established for the risk-sensitive optimal control problem with denumerable state space. The main assumptions imposed are irreducibility and a near monotonicity condition on the one-step cost function. A solution can be found constructively using either value iteration or policy iteration under suitable conditions on initial feedback law.

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We study zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic differential games on the infinite horizon with discounted and ergodic payoff criteria. Under certain assumptions, we establish the existence of values and saddle-point equilibria. We obtain our results by studying the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs equations. Finally, we show that the value of the ergodic payoff criterion is a constant multiple of the maximal eigenvalue of the generators of the associated nonlinear semigroups.

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Infinite horizon discounted-cost and ergodic-cost risk-sensitive zero-sum stochastic games for controlled Markov chains with countably many states are analyzed. Upper and lower values for these games are established. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of Markov strategies is proved for the discounted-cost game. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of stationary strategies is proved under the uniform ergodicity condition for the ergodic-cost game. The value of the ergodic-cost game happens to be the product of the inverse of the risk-sensitivity factor and the logarithm of the common Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of the associated controlled nonlinear kernels. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We study risk-sensitive control of continuous time Markov chains taking values in discrete state space. We study both finite and infinite horizon problems. In the finite horizon problem we characterize the value function via Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation and obtain an optimal Markov control. We do the same for infinite horizon discounted cost case. In the infinite horizon average cost case we establish the existence of an optimal stationary control under certain Lyapunov condition. We also develop a policy iteration algorithm for finding an optimal control.

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In many applications, the training data, from which one needs to learn a classifier, is corrupted with label noise. Many standard algorithms such as SVM perform poorly in the presence of label noise. In this paper we investigate the robustness of risk minimization to label noise. We prove a sufficient condition on a loss function for the risk minimization under that loss to be tolerant to uniform label noise. We show that the 0-1 loss, sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss satisfy this condition though none of the standard convex loss functions satisfy it. We also prove that, by choosing a sufficiently large value of a parameter in the loss function, the sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss can be made tolerant to nonuniform label noise also if we can assume the classes to be separable under noise-free data distribution. Through extensive empirical studies, we show that risk minimization under the 0-1 loss, the sigmoid loss and the ramp loss has much better robustness to label noise when compared to the SVM algorithm. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.