Stable virulence levels in the HIV epidemic of Switzerland over two decades

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the virulence of HIV-1 has been changing since its introduction into Switzerland. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of HIV-1 infected individuals with well-characterized pre-therapy disease history. METHODS: To minimize the effect of recently imported viruses and ethnicity-associated host factors, the analysis was restricted to the white, north-west-European majority population of the cohort. Virulence was characterized by the decline slope of the CD4 cell count (n = 817 patients), the decline slope of the CD4:CD8 ratio (n = 815 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 549 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. Linear regression models were used to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging between 1984 and 2003) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age and CD4 cell count at entry. RESULTS: We found no correlation between any of the virulence markers and the date of diagnosis. Inspection of short-term trends confirmed that virulence has fluctuated around a stable level over time. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of long-term time trends in the virulence markers indicates that HIV-1 is not evolving towards increasing or decreasing virulence at a perceptible rate. Both highly virulent and attenuated strains have apparently been unable to spread at the population level. This result suggests that either the evolution of virulence may be slow or inhibited due to evolutionary constraints, or HIV-1 may have already evolved to optimal virulence in the human host.

Reporting of randomized controlled trials in Hodgkin lymphoma in biomedical journals

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the best tool to evaluate the effectiveness of clinical interventions. The Consolidated Standards for Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement was introduced in 1996 to improve reporting of RCTs. We aimed to determine the extent of ambiguity and reporting quality as assessed by adherence to the CONSORT statement in published reports of RCTs involving patients with Hodgkin lymphoma from 1966 through 2002. METHODS: We analyzed 242 published full-text reports of RCTs in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma. Quality of reporting was assessed using a 14-item questionnaire based on the CONSORT checklist. Reporting was studied in two pre-CONSORT periods (1966-1988 and 1989-1995) and one post-CONSORT period (1996-2002). RESULTS: Only six of the 14 items were addressed in 75% or more of the studies in all three time periods. Most items that are necessary to assess the methodologic quality of a study were reported by fewer than 20% of the studies. Improvements over time were seen for some items, including the description of statistics methods used, reporting of primary research outcomes, performance of power calculations, method of randomization and concealment allocation, and having performed intention-to-treat analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Despite recent improvements, reporting levels of CONSORT items in RCTs involving patients with Hodgkin lymphoma remain unsatisfactory. Further concerted action by journal editors, learned societies, and medical schools is necessary to make authors even more aware of the need to improve the reporting RCTs in medical journals to allow assessment of validity of published clinical research.

A Method for Visualizing Multivariate Time Series Data

Visualization and exploratory analysis is an important part of any data analysis and is made more challenging when the data are voluminous and high-dimensional. One such example is environmental monitoring data, which are often collected over time and at multiple locations, resulting in a geographically indexed multivariate time series. Financial data, although not necessarily containing a geographic component, present another source of high-volume multivariate time series data. We present the mvtsplot function which provides a method for visualizing multivariate time series data. We outline the basic design concepts and provide some examples of its usage by applying it to a database of ambient air pollution measurements in the United States and to a hypothetical portfolio of stocks.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Time-related, cross-sectional and prospective follow-up of pancreatic endocrine function after pancreas allograft transplantation in type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetic patients

It has been established that successful pancreas transplantation in Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetic patients results in normal but exaggerated phasic glucose-induced insulin secretion, normal intravenous glucose disappearance rates, improved glucose recovery from insulin-induced hypoglycaemia, improved glucagon secretion during insulin-induced hypoglycaemia, but no alterations in pancreatic polypeptide responses to hypoglycaemia. However, previous reports have not segregated the data in terms of the length of time following successful transplantation and very little prospective data collected over time in individual patients has been published. This article reports that in general there are no significant differences in the level of improvement when comparing responses as early as three months post-operatively up to as long as two years post-operatively when examining the data cross-sectionally in patients who have successfully maintained their allografts. Moreover, this remarkable constancy in pancreatic islet function is also seen in a smaller group of patients who have been examined prospectively at various intervals post-operatively. It is concluded that successful pancreas transplantation results in remarkable improvements in Alpha and Beta cell but not PP cell function that are maintained for at least one to two years.

Effects of forest management and time on herbaceous species dynamics in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

The herbaceous layer is a dynamic layer in a forest ecosystem which often contains the highest species richness in northern temperate forests. Few long-term studies exist in northern hardwood forests with consistent management practices to observe herbaceous species dynamics. The Ford Forest (Michigan Technological University) reached its 50th year of management during the winter of 2008-2009. Herbaceous species were sampled during the summers pre- and post-harvest. Distinct herbaceous communities developed in the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment and the uncut control. After the harvest, the diameter-limit treatments had herbaceous communities more similar to the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment than the uncut control; the herbaceous layer contained more exotic and early successional species. Fifty years of continuous management changed the herbaceous community especially in the diameter-limit treatments. Sites used in the development of habitat classification systems based on the presence and absence of certain herbaceous species can also be used to monitor vegetation change over time. The Guide to Forest Communities and Habitat Types of Michigan was developed to aid forest managers in understanding the potential productivity of a stand, and often aid in the development of ecologically-based forest management practices. Subsets of plots used to create the Western Upper Peninsula Guide were resampled after 10 years. During the resampling, both spring and summer vegetation were sampled and earthworm populations were estimated through liquid extraction. Spring sampling observed important spring ephemerals missed during summer sampling. More exotic species were present during the summer 2010 sampling than the summer 2000 sampling. Invasive European earthworms were also observed at all sample locations in all habitat types; earthworm densities increased with increasing habitat richness. To ensure the accuracy of the guide book, plots should be monitored to see how herbaceous communities are changing. These plots also offer unique opportunities to monitor for invasive species and the effects of a changing climate.

Beliefs about back pain predict the recovery rate over 52 consecutive weeks

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the course of low-back pain over 52 weeks following current pain at baseline. Initial beliefs about the inevitability of the pain's negative consequences and fear avoidance beliefs were examined as potential risk factors for persistent low-back pain. METHODS: On a weekly basis over a period of one year, 264 participants reported both the intensity and frequency of their low-back pain and the degree to which it impaired their work performance. In a multilevel regression analysis, predictor variables included initial low-back pain intensity, age, gender, body mass index, anxiety/depression, participation in sport, heavy workload, time (1-52 weeks), and scores on the "back beliefs" and "fear-avoidance beliefs" questionnaires. RESULTS: The group mean values for both the intensity and frequency of weekly low-back pain, and the impairment of work performance due to such pain showed a recovery within the first 12 weeks. In a multilevel regression of 9497 weekly measurements, greater weekly low-back pain and impairment were predicted by higher levels of work-related fear avoidance beliefs. A significant interaction between time and the scores on both the work-related fear-avoidance and back beliefs questionnaires indicated faster recovery and pain relief over time in those who reported less fear-avoidance and fewer negative beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: Negative beliefs about the inevitability of adverse consequences of low-back pain and work-related, fear-avoidance beliefs are independent risk factors for poor recovery from low-back pain.

A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

Modulation of nociceptive withdrawal reflexes evoked by single and repeated nociceptive stimuli in conscious dogs by low-dose acepromazine

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the modulation of the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) and temporal summation (TS) by low-dose acepromazine (ACP) in conscious dogs. To assess the short- and long-term stability of the reflex thresholds. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled cross-over experimental study. ANIMALS: Eight adult male Beagles. METHODS: The NWR was elicited using single transcutaneous electrical stimulation of the ulnar nerve. Repeated stimuli (10 pulses, 5 Hz) were applied to evoke TS. The responses of the deltoideus muscle were recorded and quantified by surface electromyography and the behavioural reactions were scored. Each dog received 0.01 mg kg(-1) ACP or an equal volume saline intravenously (IV) at 1 week intervals. Measurements were performed before (baseline) and 20, 60 and 100 minutes after drug administration. Sedation was scored before drug administration and then at 10 minutes intervals. Data were analyzed with Friedman repeated measures analysis of variance on ranks and Wilcoxon signed rank tests. RESULTS: Acepromazine resulted in a mild tranquilization becoming obvious at 20 minutes and peaking 30 minutes after injection. Single (I(t)) and repeated stimuli (TS(t)) threshold intensities, NWR and TS characteristics and behavioural responses were not affected by the ACP at any time point. Both I(t) and TS(t) were stable over time. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In dogs, 0.01 mg kg(-1) ACP IV had no modulatory action on the NWR evoked by single or repeated stimuli, suggesting no antinociceptive activity on phasic nociceptive stimuli. The evidence of the stability of the NWR thresholds supports the use of the model as an objective tool to investigate nociception in conscious dogs. A low dose of ACP administered as the sole drug, can be used to facilitate the recordings in anxious subjects without altering the validity of this model.

Delay in diagnosis of eosinophilic esophagitis increases risk for stricture formation in a time-dependent manner

BACKGROUND & AIMS Development of strictures is a major concern for patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). At diagnosis, EoE can present with an inflammatory phenotype (characterized by whitish exudates, furrows, and edema), a stricturing phenotype (characterized by rings and stenosis), or a combination of these. Little is known about progression of stricture formation; we evaluated stricture development over time in the absence of treatment and investigated risk factors for stricture formation. METHODS We performed a retrospective study using the Swiss EoE Database, collecting data on 200 patients with symptomatic EoE (153 men; mean age at diagnosis, 39 ± 15 years old). Stricture severity was graded based on the degree of difficulty associated with passing of the standard adult endoscope. RESULTS The median delay in diagnosis of EoE was 6 years (interquartile range, 2-12 years). With increasing duration of delay in diagnosis, the prevalence of fibrotic features of EoE, based on endoscopy, increased from 46.5% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 87.5% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P = .020). Similarly, the prevalence of esophageal strictures increased with duration of diagnostic delay, from 17.2% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 70.8% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P < .001). Diagnostic delay was the only risk factor for strictures at the time of EoE diagnosis (odds ratio = 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.040-1.122; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of esophageal strictures correlates with the duration of untreated disease. These findings indicate the need to minimize delay in diagnosis of EoE.

Time courses and quantitative analysis of atrial fibrillation episode number and duration after circular plus linear left atrial lesions: trigger elimination or substrate modification: early or delayed cure?

OBJECTIVES We sought to analyze the time course of atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes before and after circular plus linear left atrial ablation and the percentage of patients with complete freedom from AF after ablation by using serial seven-day electrocardiograms (ECGs). BACKGROUND The curative treatment of AF targets the pathophysiological corner stones of AF (i.e., the initiating triggers and/or the perpetuation of AF). The pathophysiological complexity of both may not result in an "all-or-nothing" response but may modify number and duration of AF episodes. METHODS In patients with highly symptomatic AF, circular plus linear ablation lesions were placed around the left and right pulmonary veins, between the two circles, and from the left circle to the mitral annulus using the electroanatomic mapping system. Repetitive continuous 7-day ECGs administered before and after catheter ablation were used for rhythm follow-up. RESULTS In 100 patients with paroxysmal (n = 80) and persistent (n = 20) AF, relative duration of time spent in AF significantly decreased over time (35 +/- 37% before ablation, 26 +/- 41% directly after ablation, and 10 +/- 22% after 12 months). Freedom from AF stepwise increased in patients with paroxysmal AF and after 12 months measured at 88% or 74% depending on whether 24-h ECG or 7-day ECG was used. Complete pulmonary vein isolation was demonstrated in <20% of the circular lesions. CONCLUSIONS The results obtained in patients with AF treated with circular plus linear left atrial lesions strongly indicate that substrate modification is the main underlying pathophysiologic mechanism and that it results in a delayed cure instead of an immediate cure.

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: a cohort study

Background Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004–2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these. Methods Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient’s last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient’s death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient’s last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin’s lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004–2010 in this large observational cohort. Conclusions The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC.

Psychoendocrine validation of a short measure for assessment of perceived stress management skills in different non-clinical populations

BACKGROUND: We investigated the psychometric properties of a short questionnaire for combined assessment of different perceived stress management skills in the general population and tested whether scores relate to physiological stress reactivity. METHODS: For psychometric evaluation, we determined the factor structure of the questionnaire and investigated its measurement invariance in the participant groups and over time in three different independent samples representing the general population (total N=332). Reliability was tested by estimating test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and item reliabilities. We examined convergent and criterion validity using selected criterion variables. For endocrine validation, 35 healthy non-smoking and medication-free men in a laboratory study and 35 male and female employees in a workplace study underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task. We assessed stress management skills and measured salivary cortisol before and several times up to 60 min (workplace study) and 120 min (laboratory study) after stress. Potential confounders were controlled. RESULTS: The factor structure of the questionnaire consists of five scales reflecting acceptably distinct stress management skills such as cognitive strategies, use of social support, relaxation strategies, anger regulation, and perception of bodily tension. This factor structure was stable across participant groups and over time. Internal consistencies, item reliabilities, and test-retest reliabilities met established statistical requirements. Convergent and criterion validity were also established. In both endocrine validation studies, higher stress management skills were independently associated with lower cortisol stress reactivity (p's<.029). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the questionnaire has good psychometric properties and that it relates to subjective psychological and objective physiological stress indicators. Therefore, the instrument seems a suitable measure for differential assessment of stress management skills in the general population.

A new methodological approach for studying intergenerational mobility with an application to Swiss data

Despite the widespread interest in the topic and a vast international literature, very little is known about the development of intergenerational mobility in Switzerland. Based on a new harmonized database for Switzerland (comprising various surveys such as different waves of the ISSP, EVS, and the ESS), we provide a systematic account of changes in the link between social origin and destination over time (covering birth cohorts from around 1935 to 1980). We analyze effects of parental education and class on own educational achievement and social class for both men and women, using a refined variant of the methodological approach proposed by Jann and Combet (2012). The approach is based on the concept of proportional reduction of error (PRE) and features a number of advantages over more traditional approaches. For example, it provides smooth estimates of changes in social mobility that have a clear interpretation and it can easily incorporate control variables and multiple dimensions of parental characteristics. To evaluate the validity of our approach, we employ the oft-used log-multiplicative layer effect (a.k.a Unidiff) model (Xie 1992, Erikson and Goldthorpe 1992) as a benchmark. Results indicate that our approach performs well and produces qualitatively similar findings as Xie's model. For both men and women, effects of social origin initially decreased, but then, towards the end of the observation period, increased again. This u-shaped pattern, which can be observed with respect to both education and class, appears to be more pronounced for women than for men.