Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Wave propagation analysis in carbon nanotube embedded composite using wavelet based spectral finite elements

In this paper, elastic wave propagation is studied in a nanocomposite reinforced with multiwall carbon nanotubes (CNTs). Analysis is performed on a representative volume element of square cross section. The frequency content of the exciting signal is at the terahertz level. Here, the composite is modeled as a higher order shear deformable beam using layerwise theory, to account for partial shear stress transfer between the CNTs and the matrix. The walls of the multiwall CNTs are considered to be connected throughout their length by distributed springs, whose stiffness is governed by the van der Waals force acting between the walls of nanotubes. The analyses in both the frequency and time domains are done using the wavelet-based spectral finite element method (WSFEM). The method uses the Daubechies wavelet basis approximation in time to reduce the governing PDE to a set of ODEs. These transformed ODEs are solved using a finite element (FE) technique by deriving an exact interpolating function in the transformed domain to obtain the exact dynamic stiffness matrix. Numerical analyses are performed to study the spectrum and dispersion relations for different matrix materials and also for different beam models. The effects of partial shear stress transfer between CNTs and matrix on the frequency response function (FRF) and the time response due to broadband impulse loading are investigated for different matrix materials. The simultaneous existence of four coupled propagating modes in a double-walled CNT-composite is also captured using modulated sinusoidal excitation.

An Application of 3-D Kinematical Conservation Laws: Propagation of a 3-D Wavefront

Three-dimensional (3-D) kinematical conservation laws (KCL) are equations of evolution of a propagating surface Omega(t) in three space dimensions. We start with a brief review of the 3-D KCL system and mention some of its properties relevant to this paper. The 3-D KCL, a system of six conservation laws, is an underdetermined system to which we add an energy transport equation for a small amplitude 3-D nonlinear wavefront propagating in a polytropic gas in a uniform state and at rest. We call the enlarged system of 3-D KCL with the energy transport equation equations of weakly nonlinear ray theory (WNLRT). We highlight some interesting properties of the eigenstructure of the equations of WNLRT, but the main aim of this paper is to test the numerical efficacy of this system of seven conservation laws. We take several initial shapes for a nonlinear wavefront with a suitable amplitude distribution on it and let it evolve according to the 3-D WNLRT. The 3-D WNLRT is a weakly hyperbolic 7 x 7 system that is highly nonlinear. Here we use the staggered Lax-Friedrichs and Nessyahu-Tadmor central schemes and have obtained some very interesting shapes of the wavefronts. We find the 3-D KCL to be suitable for solving many complex problems for which there presently seems to be no other method capable of giving such physically realistic features.

Effect of prestrain on fatigue crack propagation in mild steel containing non-metallic inclusions

The effect of tensile prestrain on fatigue crack propagation behaviour of commercial mild steel with significant amount of stringer inclusions has been studied. In prestrained materials the usual stable stage II crack growth region is preceded by a phase wherein a retardation in crack growth rate occurs. No such behaviour is observed in annealed material. The amount of retardation is found to increase with increase in prestrain. A mechanism for the observed retardation in crack growth rate is also presented.

Does Uncertainty Affect Investment and Labor Demand?

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment and labor demand for Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing a stock return based measure of uncertainty decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, the results reveal that idiosyncratic uncertainty significantly reduces both investment and labor demand. Idiosyncratic uncertainty seems to influence investment in the current period, whereas the depressing effect on labor demand appears with a one-year lag. The results provide support that the depressing effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty on investment is stronger for small firms in comparison to large firms. Some evidence is reported regarding differential effects of uncertainty on labor demand conditional on firm characteristics. Most importantly, the depressing effect of lagged idiosyncratic uncertainty on labor demand tends to be stronger for diversified firms compared with focused firms.

A method for Estimating the Degree of Uncertainty With Respect to Life Cycle Assessment During Design

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

Electromagnetic wave propagation at the interface between two polar semiconductors

The interface between two polar semiconductors can support three types of phonon-plasmon-polariton modes propagating in three well-defined frequency windows ??1?[min(?1,?3),?R1], ??2?[max(?2,?4),?R2], and ??3?[min(?2,?4),?R3]. The limiting frequencies ?1,2,3,4 are defined by ?1(?)=0, ?2(?)=0, and ?R1,2,3 by ?1(?)+?2(?)=0, where ?i(?) are dielectric functions of the two media with i=1,2. The dispersion, decay distances, and polarization of the three modes are discussed. The variation of the limiting frequencies with the interface plasma parameter ???p22/?p12 reveals an interesting feature in the dispersion characteristics of these modes. For the interfaces for which the bulk coupled phonon-plasmon frequencies of medium 1 are greater than the LO frequency or are less than the TO frequency of medium 2, there exist two values of ?=?1 and ?2(

Propagation of quasi-simple waves in a compressible rotating atmosphere

A class of self-propagating linear and nonlinear travelling wave solutions for compressible rotating fluid is studied using both numerical and analytical techiques. It is shown that, in general, a three dimensional linear wave is not periodic. However, for some range of wave numbers depending on rotation, horizontally propagating waves are periodic. When the rotation ohgr is equal to $$\sqrt {(\gamma - 1)/(4\gamma )}$$ , all horizontal waves are periodic. Here, gamma is the ratio of specific heats. The analytical study is based on phase space analysis. It reveals that the quasi-simple waves are periodic only in some plane, even when the propagation is horizontal, in contrast to the case of non-rotating flows for which there is a single parameter family of periodic solutions provided the waves propagate horizontally. A classification of the singular points of the governing differential equations for quasi-simple waves is also appended.

Propagation Of Vlf Electromagnetic-Waves In An Idealized Earth-Crust Wave-Guide With Overburden

Theoretical study of propagation characteristics of VLF electromagnetic waves through an idealised parallel-plane earth-crust waveguide with overburden, experimental verification of some of these characteristics with the aid of a model tank and use of range equation reveal the superiority of radio communication between land and a deeply submerged terminal inside a ocean via the earth-crust over direct link communication through the ocean.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue crack propagation model for plain concrete - An analogy with population growth

In this work, an analytical model is proposed for fatigue crack propagation in plain concrete based on population growth exponential law and in conjunction with principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. This model takes into account parameters such as loading history, fracture toughness, crack length, loading ratio and structural size. The predicted results are compared with experimental crack growth data for constant and variable amplitude loading and are found to capture the size effect apart from showing a good agreement. Using this model, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the effect of various parameters that influence fatigue failure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of tolerance on the propagation characteristic of a superconducting thin film microstrip delay line

The propagation constant of a superconducting microstrip transmission delay line is evaluated using the spectral domain immitance approach, modelling the superconductor as a surface current having an equivalent surface impedance found through the complex resistive boundary condition. The sensitivity approach is used to study the beta variations with substrate parameters and film characteristics. Results show that the surface impedance does not have much influence on beta sensitivities with respect to epsilon r, W and h. However, it can be observed that the surface impedance plays a crucial role in determining the optimum design.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.