Climate change adaptation planning under uncertainty in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: a case study on institutional vulnerability, adaptive capacity and climate change governance

Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging impacts on urban areas and creates additional challenges for sustainable development. Urban areas are inextricably linked with climate change, as they are major contributors to it, while also being particularly vulnerable to its impacts. Climate change presents a new challenge to urban areas, not only because of the expected rises in temperature and sea-level, but also the current context of failure to fully address the institutional barriers preventing action to prepare for climate change, or feedbacks between urban systems and agents. Despite the importance of climate change, there are few cities in developing countries that are attempting to address these issues systematically as part of their governance and planning processes. While there is a growing literature on the risks and vulnerabilities related to climate change, as yet there is limited research on the development of institutional responses, the dissemination of relevant knowledge and evaluation of tools for practical planning responses by decision makers at the city level. This thesis questions the dominant assumptions about the capacity of institutions and potential of adaptive planning. It argues that achieving a balance between climate change impacts and local government decision-making capacity is a vital for successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Urban spatial planning and wider environmental planning not only play a major role in reducing/mitigating risks but also have a key role in adapting to uncertainty in over future risk. The research focuses on a single province - the biggest city in Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City - as the principal case study to explore this argument, by examining the linkages between urban planning systems, the structures of governance, and climate change adaptation planning. In conclusion it proposes a specific framework to offer insights into some of the more practical considerations, and the approach emphasises the importance of vertical and horizontal coordination in governance and urban planning.

Equitable representation in councils: theory and an application to the United Nations Security Council

We analyze democratic equity in council voting games (CVGs). In a CVG, a voting body containing all members delegates decision-making to a (time-varying) subset of its members, as describes, e.g., the relationship between the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing democratic equitability in CVGs at both the country and region levels, and for different assumptions regarding preference correlation. We apply the framework to evaluate the equitability of the UNSC, and the claims of those who seek to reform it. We find that the individual permanent members are overrepresented by between 21.3 times (United Kingdom) and 3.8 times (China) from a country-level perspective, while from a region perspective Eastern Europe is the most heavily overrepresented region with more than twice its equitable representation, and Africa the most heavily underrepresented. Our equity measures do not preclude some UNSC members from exercising veto rights, however.

Resolving taxonomic uncertainty in vulnerable elasmobranchs: are the Madeira skate (Raja maderensis) and the thornback ray (Raja clavata) distinct species?

Skates and rays constitute the most speciose group of chondrichthyan fishes, yet are characterised by remarkable levels of morphological and ecological conservatism. They can be challenging to identify, which makes monitoring species compositions for fisheries management purposes problematic. Owing to their slow growth and low fecundity, skates are vulnerable to exploitation and species exhibiting endemism or limited ranges are considered to be the most at risk. The Madeira skate Raja maderensis is endemic and classified as ‘Data Deficient’ by the IUCN, yet its taxonomic distinctiveness from the morphologically similar and more wide-ranging thornback ray Raja clavata is unresolved. This study evaluated the sequence divergence of both the variable control region and cytochrome oxidase I ‘DNA barcode’ gene of the mitochondrial genome to elucidate the genetic differentiation of specimens identified as R. maderensis and R. clavata collected across much of their geographic ranges. Genetic evidence was insufficient to support the different species designations. However regardless of putative species identification, individuals occupying waters around the Azores and North African Seamounts represent an evolutionarily significant unit worthy of special consideration for conservation management.

Resolving taxonomic uncertainty in vulnerable elasmobranchs: are the Madeira skate (Raja maderensis) and the thornback ray (Raja clavata) distinct species?

Skates and rays constitute the most speciose group of chondrichthyan fishes, yet are characterised by remarkable levels of morphological and ecological conservatism. They can be challenging to identify, which makes monitoring species compositions for fisheries management purposes problematic. Owing to their slow growth and low fecundity, skates are vulnerable to exploitation and species exhibiting endemism or limited ranges are considered to be the most at risk. The Madeira skate Raja maderensis is endemic and classified as ‘Data Deficient’ by the IUCN, yet its taxonomic distinctiveness from the morphologically similar and more wide-ranging thornback ray Raja clavata is unresolved. This study evaluated the sequence divergence of both the variable control region and cytochrome oxidase I ‘DNA barcode’ gene of the mitochondrial genome to elucidate the genetic differentiation of specimens identified as R. maderensis and R. clavata collected across much of their geographic ranges. Genetic evidence was insufficient to support the different species designations. However regardless of putative species identification, individuals occupying waters around the Azores and North African Seamounts represent an evolutionarily significant unit worthy of special consideration for conservation management.

Comments on Uncertainty in Groundwater Governance in the Volcanic Canary Islands, Spain

[EN]The uncertainty associated with natural magnitudes and processes is conspicuous in water resources and groundwater evaluation. This uncertainty has an essential component and a part that can be reduced to some extent by increasing knowledge, improving monitoring coverage, continuous elaboration of data and accuracy and addressing the related economic and social aspects involved. Reducing uncertainty has a cost that may not be justified by the improvement that is obtainable, but that has to be known to make the right decisions. With this idea, this paper contributes general comments on the evaluation of groundwater resources in the semiarid Canary Islands and on some of the main sources of uncertainty, but a full treatment is not attempted, nor how to reduce it.

Designing for User-facing Uncertainty in Everyday Sensing and Prediction

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Asymptotic and structural properties of special cases of the Wright function arising in probability theory

This analysis paper presents previously unknown properties of some special cases of the Wright function whose consideration is necessitated by our work on probability theory and the theory of stochastic processes. Specifically, we establish new asymptotic properties of the particular Wright function 1Ψ1(ρ, k; ρ, 0; x) = X∞ n=0 Γ(k + ρn) Γ(ρn) x n n! (|x| < ∞) when the parameter ρ ∈ (−1, 0)∪(0, ∞) and the argument x is real. In the probability theory applications, which are focused on studies of the Poisson-Tweedie mixtures, the parameter k is a non-negative integer. Several representations involving well-known special functions are given for certain particular values of ρ. The asymptotics of 1Ψ1(ρ, k; ρ, 0; x) are obtained under numerous assumptions on the behavior of the arguments k and x when the parameter ρ is both positive and negative. We also provide some integral representations and structural properties involving the ‘reduced’ Wright function 0Ψ1(−−; ρ, 0; x) with ρ ∈ (−1, 0) ∪ (0, ∞), which might be useful for the derivation of new properties of members of the power-variance family of distributions. Some of these imply a reflection principle that connects the functions 0Ψ1(−−;±ρ, 0; ·) and certain Bessel functions. Several asymptotic relationships for both particular cases of this function are also given. A few of these follow under additional constraints from probability theory results which, although previously available, were unknown to analysts.

Problems in number theory and hyperbolic geometry

In the first part of this thesis we generalize a theorem of Kiming and Olsson concerning the existence of Ramanujan-type congruences for a class of eta quotients. Specifically, we consider a class of generating functions analogous to the generating function of the partition function and establish a bound on the primes ℓ for which their coefficients c(n) obey congruences of the form c(ℓn + a) ≡ 0 (mod ℓ). We use this last result to answer a question of H.C. Chan. In the second part of this thesis [S2] we explore a natural analog of D. Calegari’s result that there are no hyperbolic once-punctured torus bundles over S^1 with trace field having a real place. We prove a contrasting theorem showing the existence of several infinite families of pairs (−χ, p) such that there exist hyperbolic surface bundles over S^1 with trace field of having a real place and with fiber having p punctures and Euler characteristic χ. This supports our conjecture that with finitely many known exceptions there exist such examples for each pair ( −χ, p).

Framing the Gas Market Uncertainty in Russian Gas Export Policy: The Role of Underlying Ideas

Gas suppliers including Russia are facing the gas market uncertainty caused by the fast growing development of shale gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Given that Russia is one of the key energy suppliers in the world, Russian energy policy is intensively studied. However, the majority of the researches focus on the conventional gas sector and very few focus on the unconventional gas sector such as shale gas and LNG. In this light, this thesis aims at examining how the gas market uncertainty is framed in Russian gas export policy as well as discover how the interaction between underlying ideas and the policy frames informs policymaking. After analyzing Russian official documents, three policy frames were identified: shale gas—competition frame, LNG—cooperation frame and cooperation—competition frame. The shale gas—competition frame emphasizes the confrontation with the shale revolution in the USA. The LNG—cooperation frame rests on the idea of building cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region by the LNG trade. The cooperation—competition frame describes the oscillating Russia-EU relationship. Both the economic and ecological dimensions in the policy environment enable these three policy frames. However, the cooperation frame is constrained by the physical dimension since Russia has only one LNG facility in use. The institutional dimension underpins the idea of competition in the cooperation—competition frame. The reason is because of the divergent perspectives between Russia and the EU regarding regulations and market liberalizations. In sum, the result is different from the traditional geopolitical frame which depicts Russia as an energy superpower. Instead, this thesis suggests that Russia is shifting the priority from political interests to business interests in Russian gas export policy, particularly in the domain of shale gas and LNG.

Fenomenologinen tutkimus video-EEG potilaiden kohtauskokemuksista

Tässä fenomenologisessa tutkimuksessa kuvaillaan Video-EEG –tutkimukseen (VEEG) tulevien potilaiden kokemuksia kohtauksistaan. Tutkimusasetelmana on käytetty fenomenologiseen psykologiaan kuuluvaa Giorgin menetelmää soveltaen sitä hoitotieteen tutkimukseen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kuvailla neurologisten kohtausoireiden vuoksi VEEG-tutkimukseen tulleiden potilaiden kokemuksia kohtauksistaan ja tunnistaa sekä kuvailla kokemukseen liittyviä tekijöitä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli lisäta terveydenhoitohenkilökunnan ymmärrystä neurologisia kohtausoireita saavien ihmisten ohjaustarpeista. Materiaali kerättiin kahdeksalta potilaalta avoimilla haastatteluilla ja analysoitiin Giorgin analyysimenetelmällä. Aineistoon yhdistettiin kliinisen neurofysiologin lausunto ja muodostettiin kokemuskertomukset. Aineistosta tunnistettiin fenomenologista reduktiota käyttäen keskeiset kohtauksiin ja sairauteen liittyvät kokemukset. Käsitteiden suhdetta toisiinsa ja merkitystä sopeutumiselle analysoitiin käyttäen apuna Uncertainty in illness -mallia. Keskeisten kokemusten pohjalta toteutettiin kirjallisuushaku, jonka tuloksia reflektoitiin tämän tutkimuksen tuloksiin. Aineistosta muodostui kolme erillistä kokemuskertomusta: kertomus konkreettisista tapahtumista, kokemus hallinnan menettämisestä ja kokemus sairauden kanssa elämisesta. Keskeisiksi kokemussisällöiksi tunnistettiin kokemus terveysongelman hallinnasta, kokemus hallinnan menettämisestä, kokemus ympäristön negatiivisesta suhtautumisesta ja huoli läheisistä. Aikaisempaa tutkimusta löytyi kokemuksista terveysongelman hallinnasta ja hallinnan menetyksestä sekä ympäristön suhtautumisesta.

Fenomenologinen tutkimus video-EEG potilaiden kohtauskokemuksista

Tässä fenomenologisessa tutkimuksessa kuvaillaan Video-EEG –tutkimukseen (VEEG) tulevien potilaiden kokemuksia kohtauksistaan. Tutkimusasetelmana on käytetty fenomenologiseen psykologiaan kuuluvaa Giorgin menetelmää soveltaen sitä hoitotieteen tutkimukseen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kuvailla neurologisten kohtausoireiden vuoksi VEEGtutkimukseen tulleiden potilaiden kokemuksia kohtauksistaan ja tunnistaa sekä kuvailla kokemukseen liittyviä tekijöitä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli lisätä terveydenhoitohenkilökunnan ymmärrystä neurologisia kohtausoireita saavien ihmisten ohjaustarpeista. Materiaali kerättiin kahdeksalta potilaalta avoimilla haastatteluilla ja analysoitiin Giorgin analyysimenetelmällä. Aineistoon yhdistettiin kliinisen neurofysiologin lausunto ja muodostettiin kokemuskertomukset. Aineistosta tunnistettiin fenomenologista reduktiota käyttäen keskeiset kohtauksiin ja sairauteen liittyvät kokemukset. Käsitteiden suhdetta toisiinsa ja merkitystä sopeutumiselle analysoitiin käyttäen apuna Uncertainty in illness -mallia. Keskeisten kokemusten pohjalta toteutettiin kirjallisuushaku, jonka tuloksia reflektoitiin tämän tutkimuksen tuloksiin. Aineistosta muodostui kolme erillistä kokemuskertomusta: kertomus konkreettisista tapahtumista, kokemus hallinnan menettämisestä ja kokemus sairauden kanssa elämisestä. Keskeisiksi kokemussisällöiksi tunnistettiin kokemus terveysongelman hallinnasta, kokemus hallinnan menettämisestä, kokemus ympäristön negatiivisesta suhtautumisesta ja huoli läheisistä. Aikaisempaa tutkimusta löytyi kokemuksista terveysongelman hallinnasta ja hallinnan menetyksestä sekä ympäristön suhtautumisesta.

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

ABSTRACT The present study aims to evaluate crop, pasture and forest land prices in Brazil, between 1994 and 2010, in the light of Post-Keynesian theory. The results provide evidence that land, more than just a simple factor of production, must be conceived of as an economic asset. In fact, the price of rural land is determined not only by the expected profitability deriving from agricultural activities but also by the agents' expectations about its future appreciation and liquidity in an economic environment permeated with uncertainty. In this context, as an object of speculation, land has been particularly important as a store of value.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.