Evaluation of the accuracy of multilevel analysis parameter estimates for intra-cluster correlation in correlated binary data

Many studies in biostatistics deal with binary data. Some of these studies involve correlated observations, which can complicate the analysis of the resulting data. Studies of this kind typically arise when a high degree of commonality exists between test subjects. If there exists a natural hierarchy in the data, multilevel analysis is an appropriate tool for the analysis. Two examples are the measurements on identical twins, or the study of symmetrical organs or appendages such as in the case of ophthalmic studies. Although this type of matching appears ideal for the purposes of comparison, analysis of the resulting data while ignoring the effect of intra-cluster correlation has been shown to produce biased results.^ This paper will explore the use of multilevel modeling of simulated binary data with predetermined levels of correlation. Data will be generated using the Beta-Binomial method with varying degrees of correlation between the lower level observations. The data will be analyzed using the multilevel software package MlwiN (Woodhouse, et al, 1995). Comparisons between the specified intra-cluster correlation of these data and the estimated correlations, using multilevel analysis, will be used to examine the accuracy of this technique in analyzing this type of data. ^

Dominance and the maintenance of polymorphism in multiallelic migration-selection models with two demes

The maintenance of genetic variation in a spatially heterogeneous environment has been one of the main research themes in theoretical population genetics. Despite considerable progress in understanding the consequences of spatially structured environments on genetic variation, many problems remain unsolved. One of them concerns the relationship between the number of demes, the degree of dominance, and the maximum number of alleles that can be maintained by selection in a subdivided population. In this work, we study the potential of maintaining genetic variation in a two-deme model with deme-independent degree of intermediate dominance, which includes absence of G x E interaction as a special case. We present a thorough numerical analysis of a two-deme three-allele model, which allows us to identify dominance and selection patterns that harbor the potential for stable triallelic equilibria. The information gained by this approach is then used to construct an example in which existence and asymptotic stability of a fully polymorphic equilibrium can be proved analytically. Noteworthy, in this example the parameter range in which three alleles can coexist is maximized for intermediate migration rates. Our results can be interpreted in a specialist-generalist context and (among others) show when two specialists can coexist with a generalist in two demes if the degree of dominance is deme independent and intermediate. The dominance relation between the generalist allele and the specialist alleles play a decisive role. We also discuss linear selection on a quantitative trait and show that G x E interaction is not necessary for the maintenance of more than two alleles in two demes.

End-tidal CO2 pressure: an important parameter for a correct interpretation of changes in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation measured with functional near infrared spectrophotometry (fNIRS)

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of different speech tasks (recitation of prose (PR), alliteration (AR) and hexameter (HR) verses) and a control task (mental arithmetic (MA) with voicing of the result) on endtidal CO2 (ET-CO2), cerebral hemodynamics; i.e. total hemoglobin (tHb) and tissue oxygen saturation (StO2). tHb and StO2 were measured with a frequency domain near infrared spectrophotometer (ISS Inc., USA) and ET-CO2 with a gas analyzer (Nellcor N1000). Measurements were performed in 24 adult volunteers (11 female, 13 male; age range 22 to 64 years) during task performance in a randomized order on 4 different days to avoid potential carry over effects. Statistical analysis was applied to test differences between baseline, 2 recitation and 5 recovery periods. The two brain hemispheres and 4 tasks were tested separately. Data analysis revealed that during the recitation tasks (PR, AR and HR) StO2 decreased statistically significant (p < 0.05) during PR and AR in the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) and during AR and HR in the left PFC. tHb showed a significant decrease during HR in the right PFC and during PR, AR and HR in the left PFC. During the MA task, StO2 increased significantly. A significant decrease in ET-CO2 was found during all 4 tasks with the smallest decrease during the MA task. In conclusion, we hypothesize that the observed changes in tHb and StO2 are mainly caused by an altered breathing during the tasks that led a lowering of the CO2 content in the blood provoked a cerebral CO2 reaction, i.e. a vasoconstriction of blood vessels due to decreased CO2 pressure and thereby decrease in cerebral blood volume. Therefore, breathing changes should be monitored during brain studies involving speech when using functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to ensure a correct interpretation of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation.

Accurate evaluation of hadronic uncertainties in spin-independent WIMP-nucleon scattering: Disentangling two- and three-flavor effects

We show how to avoid unnecessary and uncontrolled assumptions usually made in the literature about soft SU(3) flavor symmetry breaking in determining the two-flavor nucleon matrix elements relevant for direct detection of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). Based on SU(2) chiral perturbation theory, we provide expressions for the proton and neutron scalar couplings fp,nu and fp,nd with the pion-nucleon σ term as the only free parameter, which should be used in the analysis of direct detection experiments. This approach for the first time allows for an accurate assessment of hadronic uncertainties in spin-independent WIMP-nucleon scattering and for a reliable calculation of isospin-violating effects. We find that the traditional determinations of Vfpu−fnu and fpd−fnd are off by a factor of 2.

Specimen specific parameter identification of ovine lumbar intervertebral discs: On the influence of fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre shear interactions.

Numerical models of the intervertebral disc, which address mechanical questions commonly make use of the difference in water content between annulus and nucleus, and thus fluid and solid parts are separated. Despite this simplification, models remain complex due to the anisotropy and nonlinearity of the annulus and regional variations of the collagen fibre density. Additionally, it has been shown that cross-links make a large contribution to the stiffness of the annulus. Because of this complex composite structure, it is difficult to reproduce several sets of experimental data with one single set of material parameters. This study addresses the question to which extent the ultrastructure of the intervertebral disc should be modelled so that its moment-angle behaviour can be adequately described. Therefore, a hyperelastic constitutive law, based on continuum mechanical principles was derived, which does not only consider the anisotropy from the collagen fibres, but also interactions among the fibres and between the fibres and the ground substance. Eight ovine lumbar intervertebral discs were tested on a custom made spinal loading simulator in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Specimen-specific geometrical models were generated using CT images and T2 maps to distinguish between annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus. For the identification of the material parameters the annulus fibrosus was described with two scenarios: with and without fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre interactions. Both scenarios showed a similar behaviour on a load displacement level. Comparing model predictions to the experimental data, the mean RMS of all specimens and all load cases was 0.54±0.15° without the interaction and 0.54±0.19° when the fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre interactions were included. However, due to the increased stiffness when cross-links effects were included, this scenario showed more physiological stress-strain relations in uniaxial and biaxial stress states. Thus, the present study suggests that fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre interactions should be considered in the constitutive law when the model addresses questions concerning the stress field of the annulus fibrosus.

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

Compilation of measurements from two interdisciplinary STAR-shaped surveys in the North Sea: The ZISCH - Dataset

The measurements were obtained during two North Sea wide STAR-shaped cruises during summer 1986 and winter 1987, which were performed to investigate the circulation induced transport and biologically induced pollutant transfer within the interdisciplinary research in the project "ZISCH - Zirkulation und Schadstoffumsatz in der Nordsee / Circulation and Contaminant Fluxes in the North Sea (1984-1989)". The inventory presents parameters measured on hydrodynamics, nutrient dynamics, ecosystem dynamics and pollutant dynamics in the pelagic and benthic realm. The research program had the objective of quantifying fluxes of major budgets, especially contaminants in the North Sea. In spring 1986, following the phytoplankton spring bloom, and in late winter 1987, at minimum primary production activity, the North Sea ecosystem was investigated on a station net covering the whole North Sea. The station net was shaped like a star. Sampling started in the centre, followed by the northwest section and moving counter clockwise around the North Sea following the residual currents. By this strategy, a time series was measured in the central North Sea and more synoptic data sets were obtained in the individual sections. Generally advection processes have to be considered when comparing the data from different stations. The entire sampling period lasted for more than six weeks in each cruise. Thus, a time-lag should be considered especially when comparing the data from the eastern and the western part of the central and northern North Sea, where samples were taken at the beginning and at the end of the campaign. The ZISCH investigations represented a qualitatively and quantitatively new approach to North Sea research in several respects. (1) The first simultaneous blanket coverage of all important biological, chemical and physical parameters in the entire North Sea ecosystem; (2) the first simultaneous measurements of major contaminants (metals and organohaline compounds) in the different ecosystem compartments; (3) simultaneous determinations of atmospheric inputs of momentum, energy and matter as important ecosystem boundary conditions; (4) performance of the complex measurement program during two seasons, namely the spring plankton bloom and the subsequent winter period of minimal biological activity; and (5) support of data analysis and interpretation by oceanographic and meteorological numerical models on the same scales.

Table 1. Mean geochemical values for Baseline (pre-injection) and Monitor-1 (post-injection) samples, and the percent change between the two weighted means

The Weyburn Oil Field, Saskatchewan is the site of a large (5000 tonnes/day of CO2) CO2-EOR injection project By EnCana Corporation. Pre- and post-injection samples (Baseline and Monitor-1, respectively) of produced fluids from approximately 45 vertical wells were taken and chemically analyzed to determine changes in the fluid chemistry and isotope composition between August 2000 and March 2001. After 6 months of CO2 injection, geochemical parameters including pH, [HCO3], [Ca], [Mg], and ?13CO2(g) point to areas in which injected CO2 dissolution and reservoir carbonate mineral dissolution have occurred. Pre-injection fluid compositions suggest that the reservoir brine in the injection area may be capable of storing as much as 100 million tonnes of dissolved CO2. Modeling of water-rock reactions show that clay minerals and feldspar, although volumetrically insignificant, may be capable of acting as pH buffers, allowing injected CO2 to be stored as bicarbonate in the formation water or as newly precipitated carbonate minerals, given favorable reaction kinetics.

Calculated sea surface temperatures of two sediment cores

The reconstruction of ocean history employs a large variety of methods with origins in the biological, chemical, and physical sciences, and uses modern statistical techniques for the interpretation of extensive and complex data sets. Various sediment properties deliver useful information for reconstructing environmental parameters. Those properties that have a close relationship to environmental parameters are called ''proxy variables'' (''proxies'' for short). Proxies are measurable descriptors for desired (but unobservable) variables. Surface water temperature is probably the most important parameter for describing the conditions of past oceans and is crucial for climate modelling. Proxies for temperature are: abundance of microfossils dwelling in surface waters, oxygen isotope composition of planktic foraminifers, the ratio of magnesium or strontium to calcium in calcareous shells or the ratio of certain organic molecules (e.g. alkenones produced by coccolithophorids). Surface water salinity, which is important in modelling of ocean circulation, is much more difficult to reconstruct. At present there is no established method for a direct determination of this parameter. Measurements associated with the paleochemistry of bottom waters to reconstruct bottom water age and flow are made on benthic foraminifers, ostracodes, and deep-sea corals. Important geochemical tracers are d13C and Cd/Ca ratios. When using benthic foraminifers, knowledge of the sediment depth habitat of species is crucial. Reconstructions of productivity patterns are of great interest because of important links to current patterns, mixing of water masses, wind, the global carbon cycle, and biogeography. Productivity is reflected in the flux of carbon into the sediment. There are a number of fluxes other than those of organic carbon that can be useful in assessing productivity fluctuations. Among others, carbonate and opal flux have been used, as well as particulate barite. Furthermore, microfossil assemblages contain clues to the intensity of production as some species occur preferentially in high-productivity regions while others avoid these. One marker for the fertility of sub-surface waters (that is, nutrient availability) is the carbon isotope ratio within that water (13C/12C, expressed as d13C). Carbon isotope ratios in today's ocean are negatively correlated with nitrate and phosphate contents. Another tracer of phosphate content in ocean waters is the Cd/Ca ratio. The correlation between this ratio and phosphate concentrations is quite well documented. A rather new development to obtain clues on ocean fertility (nitrate utilization) is the analysis of the 15N/14N ratio in organic matter. The fractionation dynamics are analogous to those of carbon isotopes. These various ratios are captured within the organisms growing within the tagged water. A number of reconstructions of the partial pressure of CO2 have been attempted using d13C differences between planktic and benthic foraminifers and d13C values of bulk organic material or individual organic components. To define the carbon system in sea water, two elements of the system have to be known in addition to temperature. These can be any combination of total CO2 , alkalinity, or pH. To reconstruct pH, the boron isotope composition of carbonates has been used. Ba patterns have been used to infer the distribution of alkalinity in past oceans. Information relating to atmospheric circulationand climate is transported to the ocean by wind or rivers, in the form of minerals or as plant andanimal remains. The most useful tracers in this respect are silt-sized particles and pollen.

Self-consistent resonance absorption with two layer profile steepening

Resonance absorption of p-polarized light, incident at angle 6 on a flowing, stratified plasma, is analyzed; profile steepening within (i) a layer around the turning point, and (ii) a thinner,embedded sublayer at the critical surface is taken into account self-consistently. The entire steepened region is taken as collisionless and isothermal. The structure of the main layer shows a variety of regimes, depending on how the flow crosses a sonic point. The structure of the sublayer is also determined; it is entirely subsonic (with no wave breaking) for a well-defined,broad parameter range. Density changes across both layer and sublayer, and fractional absorption, are given in terms of [(wavelength)2 Xintensity/temperature], and (temperature/mec2). The flow outside the double structure is also analyzed for particular conditions.

Molecular dynamics modeling and simulation of void growth in two dimensions

The mechanisms of growth of a circular void by plastic deformation were studied by means of molecular dynamics in two dimensions (2D). While previous molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in three dimensions (3D) have been limited to small voids (up to ≈10 nm in radius), this strategy allows us to study the behavior of voids of up to 100 nm in radius. MD simulations showed that plastic deformation was triggered by the nucleation of dislocations at the atomic steps of the void surface in the whole range of void sizes studied. The yield stress, defined as stress necessary to nucleate stable dislocations, decreased with temperature, but the void growth rate was not very sensitive to this parameter. Simulations under uniaxial tension, uniaxial deformation and biaxial deformation showed that the void growth rate increased very rapidly with multiaxiality but it did not depend on the initial void radius. These results were compared with previous 3D MD and 2D dislocation dynamics simulations to establish a map of mechanisms and size effects for plastic void growth in crystalline solids.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Competitive exclusion in a two-especies chemotasis model

We consider a mathematical model for the spatio-temporal evolution of two biological species in a competitive situation. Besides diffusing, both species move toward higher concentrations of a chemical substance which is produced by themselves. The resulting system consists of two parabolic equations with Lotka–Volterra-type kinetic terms and chemotactic cross-diffusion, along with an elliptic equation describing the behavior of the chemical. We study the question in how far the phenomenon of competitive exclusion occurs in such a context. We identify parameter regimes for which indeed one of the species dies out asymptotically, whereas the other reaches its carrying capacity in the large time limit.