Computer simulations of microstructures related to the olivine spinel transition

Tiefherd-Beben, die im oberen Erdmantel in einer Tiefe von ca. 400 km auftreten, werden gewöhnlich mit dem in gleicher Tiefe auftretenden druckabhängigen, polymorphen Phasenübergang von Olivine (α-Phase) zu Spinel (β-Phase) in Verbindung gebracht. Es ist jedoch nach wie vor unklar, wie der Phasenübergang mit dem mechanischen Versagen des Mantelmaterials zusammenhängt. Zur Zeit werden im Wesentlichen zwei Modelle diskutiert, die entweder Mikrostrukturen, die durch den Phasenübergang entstehen, oder aber die rheologischen Veränderungen des Mantelgesteins durch den Phasenübergang dafür verantwortlich machen. Dabei sind Untersuchungen der Olivin→Spinel Umwandlung durch die Unzugänglichkeit des natürlichen Materials vollständig auf theoretische Überlegungen sowie Hochdruck-Experimente und Numerische Simulationen beschränkt. Das zentrale Thema dieser Dissertation war es, ein funktionierendes Computermodell zur Simulation der Mikrostrukturen zu entwickeln, die durch den Phasenübergang entstehen. Des Weiteren wurde das Computer Modell angewandt um die mikrostrukturelle Entwicklung von Spinelkörnern und die Kontrollparameter zu untersuchen. Die Arbeit ist daher in zwei Teile unterteilt: Der erste Teil (Kap. 2 und 3) behandelt die physikalischen Gesetzmäßigkeiten und die prinzipielle Funktionsweise des Computer Modells, das auf der Kombination von Gleichungen zur Errechnung der kinetischen Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit mit Gesetzen der Nichtgleichgewichtsthermodynamik unter nicht-hydostatischen Bedingungen beruht. Das Computermodell erweitert ein Federnetzwerk der Software latte aus dem Programmpaket elle. Der wichtigste Parameter ist dabei die Normalspannung auf der Kornoberfläche von Spinel. Darüber hinaus berücksichtigt das Programm die Latenzwärme der Reaktion, die Oberflächenenergie und die geringe Viskosität von Mantelmaterial als weitere wesentliche Parameter in der Berechnung der Reaktionskinetic. Das Wachstumsverhalten und die fraktale Dimension von errechneten Spinelkörnern ist dabei in guter Übereinstimmung mit Spinelstrukturen aus Hochdruckexperimenten. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird das Computermodell angewandt, um die Entwicklung der Oberflächenstruktur von Spinelkörnern unter verschiedenen Bedigungen zu eruieren. Die sogenannte ’anticrack theory of faulting’, die den katastrophalen Verlauf der Olivine→Spinel Umwandlung in olivinhaltigem Material unter differentieller Spannung durch Spannungskonzentrationen erklärt, wurde anhand des Computermodells untersucht. Der entsprechende Mechanismus konnte dabei nicht bestätigt werden. Stattdessen können Oberflächenstrukturen, die Ähnlichkeiten zu Anticracks aufweisen, durch Unreinheiten des Materials erklärt werden (Kap. 4). Eine Reihe von Simulationen wurde der Herleitung der wichtigsten Kontrollparameter der Reaktion in monomineralischem Olivin gewidmet (Kap. 5 and Kap. 6). Als wichtigste Einflüsse auf die Kornform von Spinel stellten sich dabei die Hauptnormalspannungen auf dem System sowie Heterogenitäten im Wirtsminerals und die Viskosität heraus. Im weiteren Verlauf wurden die Nukleierung und das Wachstum von Spinel in polymineralischen Mineralparagenesen untersucht (Kap. 7). Die Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit der Olivine→Spinel Umwandlung und die Entwicklung von Spinelnetzwerken und Clustern wird durch die Gegenwart nicht-reaktiver Minerale wie Granat oder Pyroxen erheblich beschleunigt. Die Bildung von Spinelnetzwerken hat das Potential, die mechanischen Eigenschaften von Mantelgestein erheblich zu beeinflussen, sei es durch die Bildung potentieller Scherzonen oder durch Gerüstbildung. Dieser Lokalisierungprozess des Spinelwachstums in Mantelgesteinen kann daher ein neues Erklärungsmuster für Tiefbeben darstellen.

Lesion detection and classification in breast cancer: evaluation of approaches based on morphological features, tracer kinetic modelling and semi-quantitative parameters in MR functional imaging (DCE-MRI)

The diagnosis, grading and classification of tumours has benefited considerably from the development of DCE-MRI which is now essential to the adequate clinical management of many tumour types due to its capability in detecting active angiogenesis. Several strategies have been proposed for DCE-MRI evaluation. Visual inspection of contrast agent concentration curves vs time is a very simple yet operator dependent procedure, therefore more objective approaches have been developed in order to facilitate comparison between studies. In so called model free approaches, descriptive or heuristic information extracted from time series raw data have been used for tissue classification. The main issue concerning these schemes is that they have not a direct interpretation in terms of physiological properties of the tissues. On the other hand, model based investigations typically involve compartmental tracer kinetic modelling and pixel-by-pixel estimation of kinetic parameters via non-linear regression applied on region of interests opportunely selected by the physician. This approach has the advantage to provide parameters directly related to the pathophysiological properties of the tissue such as vessel permeability, local regional blood flow, extraction fraction, concentration gradient between plasma and extravascular-extracellular space. Anyway, nonlinear modelling is computational demanding and the accuracy of the estimates can be affected by the signal-to-noise ratio and by the initial solutions. The principal aim of this thesis is investigate the use of semi-quantitative and quantitative parameters for segmentation and classification of breast lesion. The objectives can be subdivided as follow: describe the principal techniques to evaluate time intensity curve in DCE-MRI with focus on kinetic model proposed in literature; to evaluate the influence in parametrization choice for a classic bi-compartmental kinetic models; to evaluate the performance of a method for simultaneous tracer kinetic modelling and pixel classification; to evaluate performance of machine learning techniques training for segmentation and classification of breast lesion.

HCl gas gettering of 3d transition metals for crystalline silicon solar cell concepts

In order to reduce the costs of crystalline silicon solar cells, low-cost silicon materials like upgraded metallurgical grade (UMG) silicon are investigated for the application in the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Conventional high-purity silicon is made by cost-intensive methods, based on the so-called Siemens process, which uses the reaction to form chlorosilanes and subsequent several distillation steps before the deposition of high-purity silicon on slim high-purity silicon rods. UMG silicon in contrast is gained from metallurgical silicon by a rather inexpensive physicochemical purification (e.g., acid leaching and/or segregation). However, this type of silicon usually contains much higher concentrations of impurities, especially 3d transition metals like Ti, Fe, and Cu. These metals are extremely detrimental in the electrically active part of silicon solar cells, as they form recombination centers for charge carriers in the silicon band gap. This is why simple purification techniques like gettering, which can be applied between or during solar cell process steps, will play an important role for such low-cost silicon materials. Gettering in general describes a process, whereby impurities are moved to a place or turned into a state, where they are less detrimental to the solar cell. Hydrogen chloride (HCl) gas gettering in particular is a promising simple and cheap gettering technique, which is based on the reaction of HCl gas with transition metals to form volatile metal chloride species at high temperatures.rnThe aim of this thesis was to find the optimum process parameters for HCl gas gettering of 3d transition metals in low-cost silicon to improve the cell efficiency of solar cells for two different cell concepts, the standard wafer cell concept and the epitaxial wafer equivalent (EpiWE) cell concept. Whereas the former is based on a wafer which is the electrically active part of the solar cell, the latter uses an electrically inactive low-cost silicon substrate with an active layer of epitaxially grown silicon on top. Low-cost silicon materials with different impurity grades were used for HCl gas gettering experiments with the variation of process parameters like the temperature, the gettering time, and the HCl gas concentration. Subsequently, the multicrystalline silicon neighboring wafers with and without gettering were compared by element analysis techniques like neutron activation analysis (NAA). It was demonstrated that HCl gas gettering is an effective purification technique for silicon wafers, which is able to reduce some 3d transition metal concentrations by over 90%. Solar cells were processed for both concepts which could demonstrate a significant increase of the solar cell efficiency by HCl gas gettering. The efficiency of EpiWE cells could be increased by HCl gas gettering by approximately 25% relative to cells without gettering. First process simulations were performed based on a simple model for HCl gas gettering processes, which could be used to make qualitative predictions.

Impact of irrigation in the Po valley (Italy) on meteorological parameters through numerical simulation

Recent studies found that soil-atmosphere coupling features, through soil moisture, have been crucial to simulate well heat waves amplitude, duration and intensity. Moreover, it was found that soil moisture depletion both in Winter and Spring anticipates strong heat waves during the Summer. Irrigation in geophysical studies can be intended as an anthropogenic forcing to the soil-moisture, besides changes in land proprieties. In this study, the irrigation was add to a LAM hydrostatic model (BOLAM) and coupled with the soil. The response of the model to irrigation perturbation is analyzed during a dry Summer season. To identify a dry Summer, with overall positive temperature anomalies, an extensive climatological characterization of 2015 was done. The method included a statistical validation on the reference period distribution used to calculate the anomalies. Drought conditions were observed during Summer 2015 and previous seasons, both on the analyzed region and the Alps. Moreover July was characterized as an extreme event for the referred distribution. The numerical simulation consisted on the summer season of 2015 and two run: a control run (CTR), with the soil coupling and a perturbed run (IPR). The perturbation consists on a mask of land use created from the Cropland FAO dataset, where an irrigation water flux of 3 mm/day was applied from 6 A.M. to 9 A.M. every day. The results show that differences between CTR and IPR has a strong daily cycle. The main modifications are on the air masses proprieties, not on to the dynamics. However, changes in the circulation at the boundaries of the Po Valley are observed, and a diagnostic spatial correlation of variable differences shows that soil moisture perturbation explains well the variation observed in the 2 meters height temperature and in the latent heat fluxes.On the other hand, does not explain the spatial shift up and downslope observed during different periods of the day. Given the results, irrigation process affects the atmospheric proprieties on a larger scale than the irrigation, therefore it is important in daily forecast, particularly during hot and dry periods.

Photon-beam subsource sensitivity to the initial electron-beam parameters

One limitation to the widespread implementation of Monte Carlo (MC) patient dose-calculation algorithms for radiotherapy is the lack of a general and accurate source model of the accelerator radiation source. Our aim in this work is to investigate the sensitivity of the photon-beam subsource distributions in a MC source model (with target, primary collimator, and flattening filter photon subsources and an electron subsource) for 6- and 18-MV photon beams when the energy and radial distributions of initial electrons striking a linac target change. For this purpose, phase-space data (PSD) was calculated for various mean electron energies striking the target, various normally distributed electron energy spread, and various normally distributed electron radial intensity distributions. All PSD was analyzed in terms of energy, fluence, and energy fluence distributions, which were compared between the different parameter sets. The energy spread was found to have a negligible influence on the subsource distributions. The mean energy and radial intensity significantly changed the target subsource distribution shapes and intensities. For the primary collimator and flattening filter subsources, the distribution shapes of the fluence and energy fluence changed little for different mean electron energies striking the target, however, their relative intensity compared with the target subsource change, which can be accounted for by a scaling factor. This study indicates that adjustments to MC source models can likely be limited to adjusting the target subsource in conjunction with scaling the relative intensity and energy spectrum of the primary collimator, flattening filter, and electron subsources when the energy and radial distributions of the initial electron-beam change.

Spin-strain coupling in a 3-D transition metal oxides

ab-initio Hartree Fock (HF), density functional theory (DFT) and hybrid potentials were employed to compute the optimized lattice parameters and elastic properties of perovskite 3-d transition metal oxides. The optimized lattice parameters and elastic properties are interdependent in these materials. An interaction is observed between the electronic charge, spin and lattice degrees of freedom in 3-d transition metal oxides. The coupling between the electronic charge, spin and lattice structures originates due to localization of d-atomic orbitals. The coupling between the electronic charge, spin and crystalline lattice also contributes in the ferroelectric and ferromagnetic properties in perovskites. The cubic and tetragonal crystalline structures of perovskite transition metal oxides of ABO3 are studied. The electronic structure and the physics of 3-d perovskite materials is complex and less well considered. Moreover, the novelty of the electronic structure and properties of these perovskites transition metal oxides exceeds the challenge offered by their complex crystalline structures. To achieve the objective of understanding the structure and property relationship of these materials the first-principle computational method is employed. CRYSTAL09 code is employed for computing crystalline structure, elastic, ferromagnetic and other electronic properties. Second-order elastic constants (SOEC) and bulk moduli (B) are computed in an automated process by employing ELASTCON (elastic constants) and EOS (equation of state) programs in CRYSTAL09 code. ELASTCON, EOS and other computational algorithms are utilized to determine the elastic properties of tetragonal BaTiO3, rutile TiO2, cubic and tetragonal BaFeO3 and the ferromagentic properties of 3-d transition metal oxides. Multiple methods are employed to crosscheck the consistency of our computational results. Computational results have motivated us to explore the ferromagnetic properties of 3-d transition metal oxides. Billyscript and CRYSTAL09 code are employed to compute the optimized geometry of the cubic and tetragonal crystalline structure of transition metal oxides of Sc to Cu. Cubic crystalline structure is initially chosen to determine the effect of lattice strains on ferromagnetism due to the spin angular momentum of an electron. The 3-d transition metals and their oxides are challenging as the basis functions and potentials are not fully developed to address the complex physics of the transition metals. Moreover, perovskite crystalline structures are extremely challenging with respect to the quality of computations as the latter requires the well established methods. Ferroelectric and ferromagnetic properties of bulk, surfaces and interfaces are explored by employing CRYSTAL09 code. In our computations done on cubic TMOs of Sc-Fe it is observed that there is a coupling between the crystalline structure and FM/AFM spin polarization. Strained crystalline structures of 3-d transition metal oxides are subjected to changes in the electromagnetic and electronic properties. The electronic structure and properties of bulk, composites, surfaces of 3-d transition metal oxides are computed successfully.

Does organic grassland farming benefit plant and arthropod diversity at the expense of yield and soil fertility?

Organic management is one of the most popular strategies to reduce negative environmental impacts of intensive agriculture. However, little is known about benefits for biodiversity and potential worsening of yield under organic grasslands management across different grassland types, i.e. meadow, pasture and mown pasture. Therefore, we studied the diversity of vascular plants and foliage-living arthropods (Coleoptera, Araneae, Heteroptera, Auchenorrhyncha), yield, fodder quality, soil phosphorus concentrations and land-use intensity of organic and conventional grasslands across three study regions in Germany. Furthermore, all variables were related to the time since conversion to organic management in order to assess temporal developments reaching up to 18 years. Arthropod diversity was significantly higher under organic than conventional management, although this was not the case for Araneae, Heteroptera and Auchenorrhyncha when analyzed separately. On the contrary, arthropod abundance, vascular plant diversity and also yield and fodder quality did not considerably differ between organic and conventional grasslands. Analyses did not reveal differences in the effect of organic management among grassland types. None of the recorded abiotic and biotic parameters showed a significant trend with time since transition to organic management, except soil organic phosphorus concentrations which decreased with time. This implies that permanent grasslands respond slower and probably weaker to organic management than crop fields do. However, as land-use intensity and inorganic soil phosphorus concentrations were significantly lower in organic grasslands, overcoming seed and dispersal limitation by re-introducing plant species might be needed to exploit the full ecological potential of organic grassland management. We conclude that although organic management did not automatically increase the diversity of all studied taxa, it is a reasonable and useful way to support agro-biodiversity.

Amplified bioproductivity during Transition IV (332 000-342 000 yr ago): evidence from the geochemical record of Lake El'gygytgyn

Abstract. To date, terrestrial archives of long-term climatic change within the Arctic have widely been restricted to ice cores from Greenland and, more recently, sediments from Lake El’gygytgyn in northeast Arctic Russia. Sediments from this lake contain a paleoclimate record of glacialinterglacial cycles during the last three million years. Lowresolution studies at this lake have suggested that changes observed during Transition IV (the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 to MIS 9) are of greater amplitude than any observed since. In this study, geochemical parameters are used to infer past climatic conditions thus providing the first high-resolution analyses of Transition IV from a terrestrial Arctic setting. These results demonstrate that a significant shift in climate was subsequently followed by a rapid increase in biogenic silica (BSi) production. Following this sharp increase, bioproductivity remained high, but variable, for over a thousand years. This study reveals differences in the timing and magnitude of change within the ratio of silica to titanium (Si/Ti) and BSi records that would not be apparent in lower resolution studies. This has significant implications for the increasingly common use of Si/Ti data as an alternative to traditional BSi measurements.

Assessment of Collimator Jaw Optimization in Reducing Normal Tissue Irradiation with Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate normal tissue dose reduction in step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) on the Varian 2100 platform by tracking the multileaf collimator (MLC) apertures with the accelerator jaws. Methods: Clinical radiation treatment plans for 10 thoracic, 3 pediatric and 3 head and neck patients were converted to plans with the jaws tracking each segment’s MLC apertures. Each segment was then renormalized to account for the change in collimator scatter to obtain target coverage within 1% of that in the original plan. The new plans were compared to the original plans in a commercial radiation treatment planning system (TPS). Reduction in normal tissue dose was evaluated in the new plan by using the parameters V5, V10, and V20 in the cumulative dose-volume histogram for the following structures: total lung minus GTV (gross target volume), heart, esophagus, spinal cord, liver, parotids, and brainstem. In order to validate the accuracy of our beam model, MLC transmission measurements were made and compared to those predicted by the TPS. Results: The greatest change between the original plan and new plan occurred at lower dose levels. The reduction in V20 was never more than 6.3% and was typically less than 1% for all patients. The reduction in V5 was 16.7% maximum and was typically less than 3% for all patients. The variation in normal tissue dose reduction was not predictable, and we found no clear parameters that indicated which patients would benefit most from jaw tracking. Our TPS model of MLC transmission agreed with measurements with absolute transmission differences of less than 0.1 % and thus uncertainties in the model did not contribute significantly to the uncertainty in the dose determination. Conclusion: The amount of dose reduction achieved by collimating the jaws around each MLC aperture in step-and-shoot IMRT does not appear to be clinically significant.

Peak Last Glacial weathering intensity on the North American continent recorded by the authigenic Hf isotope composition of North Atlantic deep-sea sediments

We have retrieved radiogenic hafnium (Hf) isotope compositions (ɛHf) from authigenic Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides of deep northwest Atlantic sediments deposited over the past 26 ka to investigate the oceanic evidence of changes in dissolved weathering inputs from NE America during the last deglaciation. The extraction of seawater-derived Hf isotopic compositions from Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides is not a standard procedure. Comparisons between the Al/Hf ratios and Hf isotopic compositions of the chemically extracted authigenic phase on the one hand, and those of the corresponding detrital fractions on the other, provide evidence that the composition of past seawater has been reliably obtained for most sampled depths with our leaching procedures. This is endorsed most strongly by data for a sediment core from 4250 m water depth at the deeper Blake Ridge, for which consistent replicates were produced throughout. The Hf isotopic composition of the most recent sample in this core also closely matches that of nearby present day central North Atlantic seawater. Comparison with previously published seawater Nd and Pb isotope compositions obtained on the same cores shows that both Hf and Pb were released incongruently during incipient chemical weathering, but responded differently to the deglacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Hafnium was released more congruently during peak glacial conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and changed to typical incongruent interglacial ɛHf signatures either during or shortly after the LGM. This indicates that some zircon-derived Hf was released to seawater during the LGM. Conversely, there is no clear evidence for an increase in the influence of weathering of Lu-rich mineral phases during deglaciation, possibly since relatively unradiogenic Hf contributions from feldspar weathering were superimposed. While the authigenic Pb isotope signal in the same marine sediment samples traced peak chemical weathering rates on continental North America during the transition to the Holocene a similar incongruent excursion is notably absent in the Hf isotope record. The early change towards more radiogenic ɛHf in relation to the LGM may provide direct evidence for the transition from a cold-based to a warm-based Laurentide Ice Sheet on the Atlantic sector of North America.

Comparison between magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography of the lung in patients with cystic fibrosis with regard to clinical, laboratory, and pulmonary functional parameters

OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is effective as computed tomography (CT) in determining morphologic and functional pulmonary changes in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) in association with multiple clinical parameters. MATERIALS AND METHODS Institutional review board approval and patient written informed consent were obtained. In this prospective study, 30 patients with CF (17 men and 13 women; mean (SD) age, 30.2 (9.2) years; range, 19-52 years) were included. Chest CT was acquired by unenhanced low-dose technique for clinical purposes. Lung MRI (1.5 T) comprised T2- and T1-weighted sequences before and after the application of 0.1-mmol·kg gadobutrol, also considering lung perfusion imaging. All CT and MR images were visually evaluated by using 2 different scoring systems: the modified Helbich and the Eichinger scores. Signal intensity of the peribronchial walls and detected mucus on T2-weighted images as well as signal enhancement of the peribronchial walls on contrast-enhanced T1-weighted sequences were additionally assessed on MRI. For the clinical evaluation, the pulmonary exacerbation rate, laboratory, and pulmonary functional parameters were determined. RESULTS The overall modified Helbich CT score had a mean (SD) of 15.3 (4.8) (range, 3-21) and median of 16.0 (interquartile range [IQR], 6.3). The overall modified Helbich MR score showed slightly, not significantly, lower values (Wilcoxon rank sum test and Student t test; P > 0.05): mean (SD) of 14.3 (4.7) (range, 3-20) and median of 15.0 (IQR, 7.3). Without assessment of perfusion, the overall Eichinger score resulted in the following values for CT vs MR examinations: mean (SD), 20.3 (7.2) (range, 4-31); and median, 21.0 (IQR, 9.5) vs mean (SD), 19.5 (7.1) (range, 4-33); and median, 20.0 (IQR, 9.0). All differences between CT and MR examinations were not significant (Wilcoxon rank sum tests and Student t tests; P > 0.05). In general, the correlations of the CT scores (overall and different imaging parameters) to the clinical parameters were slightly higher compared to the MRI scores. However, if all additional MRI parameters were integrated into the scoring systems, the correlations reached the values of the CT scores. The overall image quality was significantly higher for the CT examinations compared to the MRI sequences. CONCLUSIONS One major diagnostic benefit of lung MRI in CF is the possible acquisition of several different morphologic and functional imaging features without the use of any radiation exposure. Lung MRI shows reliable associations with CT and clinical parameters, which suggests its implementation in CF for routine diagnosis, which would be particularly important in follow-up imaging over the long term.

The design and evaluation of a 2D dose verification system for intensity modulated radiotherapy

The usage of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatments necessitates a significant amount of patient-specific quality assurance (QA). This research has investigated the precision and accuracy of Kodak EDR2 film measurements for IMRT verifications, the use of comparisons between 2D dose calculations and measurements to improve treatment plan beam models, and the dosimetric impact of delivery errors. New measurement techniques and software were developed and used clinically at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. The software implemented two new dose comparison parameters, the 2D normalized agreement test (NAT) and the scalar NAT index. A single-film calibration technique using multileaf collimator (MLC) delivery was developed. EDR2 film's optical density response was found to be sensitive to several factors: radiation time, length of time between exposure and processing, and phantom material. Precision of EDR2 film measurements was found to be better than 1%. For IMRT verification, EDR2 film measurements agreed with ion chamber results to 2%/2mm accuracy for single-beam fluence map verifications and to 5%/2mm for transverse plane measurements of complete plan dose distributions. The same system was used to quantitatively optimize the radiation field offset and MLC transmission beam modeling parameters for Varian MLCs. While scalar dose comparison metrics can work well for optimization purposes, the influence of external parameters on the dose discrepancies must be minimized. The ability of 2D verifications to detect delivery errors was tested with simulated data. The dosimetric characteristics of delivery errors were compared to patient-specific clinical IMRT verifications. For the clinical verifications, the NAT index and percent of pixels failing the gamma index were exponentially distributed and dependent upon the measurement phantom but not the treatment site. Delivery errors affecting all beams in the treatment plan were flagged by the NAT index, although delivery errors impacting only one beam could not be differentiated from routine clinical verification discrepancies. Clinical use of this system will flag outliers, allow physicists to examine their causes, and perhaps improve the level of agreement between radiation dose distribution measurements and calculations. The principles used to design and evaluate this system are extensible to future multidimensional dose measurements and comparisons. ^

Estimating parameters in Markov models for longitudinal studies with missing data or surrogate outcomes

The discrete-time Markov chain is commonly used in describing changes of health states for chronic diseases in a longitudinal study. Statistical inferences on comparing treatment effects or on finding determinants of disease progression usually require estimation of transition probabilities. In many situations when the outcome data have some missing observations or the variable of interest (called a latent variable) can not be measured directly, the estimation of transition probabilities becomes more complicated. In the latter case, a surrogate variable that is easier to access and can gauge the characteristics of the latent one is usually used for data analysis. ^ This dissertation research proposes methods to analyze longitudinal data (1) that have categorical outcome with missing observations or (2) that use complete or incomplete surrogate observations to analyze the categorical latent outcome. For (1), different missing mechanisms were considered for empirical studies using methods that include EM algorithm, Monte Carlo EM and a procedure that is not a data augmentation method. For (2), the hidden Markov model with the forward-backward procedure was applied for parameter estimation. This method was also extended to cover the computation of standard errors. The proposed methods were demonstrated by the Schizophrenia example. The relevance of public health, the strength and limitations, and possible future research were also discussed. ^

Use of light intensity, temperature, and humidity to verify exposure location

Research studies on the association between exposures to air contaminants and disease frequently use worn dosimeters to measure the concentration of the contaminant of interest. But investigation of exposure determinants requires additional knowledge beyond concentration, i.e., knowledge about personal activity such as whether the exposure occurred in a building or outdoors. Current studies frequently depend upon manual activity logging to record location. This study's purpose was to evaluate the use of a worn data logger recording three environmental parameters—temperature, humidity, and light intensity—as well as time of day, to determine indoor or outdoor location, with an ultimate aim of eliminating the need to manually log location or at least providing a method to verify such logs. For this study, data collection was limited to a single geographical area (Houston, Texas metropolitan area) during a single season (winter) using a HOBO H8 four-channel data logger. Data for development of a Location Model were collected using the logger for deliberate sampling of programmed activities in outdoor, building, and vehicle locations at various times of day. The Model was developed by analyzing the distributions of environmental parameters by location and time to establish a prioritized set of cut points for assessing locations. The final Model consisted of four "processors" that varied these priorities and cut points. Data to evaluate the Model were collected by wearing the logger during "typical days" while maintaining a location log. The Model was tested by feeding the typical day data into each processor and generating assessed locations for each record. These assessed locations were then compared with true locations recorded in the manual log to determine accurate versus erroneous assessments. The utility of each processor was evaluated by calculating overall error rates across all times of day, and calculating individual error rates by time of day. Unfortunately, the error rates were large, such that there would be no benefit in using the Model. Another analysis in which assessed locations were classified as either indoor (including both building and vehicle) or outdoor yielded slightly lower error rates that still precluded any benefit of the Model's use.^