Timing History: The Introduction of Graphical Analysis in 19th Century British Economics

The introduction of time-series graphs into British economics in the 19th century depended on the « timing » of history. This involved reconceptualizing history into events which were both comparable and measurable and standardized by time unit. Yet classical economists in Britain in the early 19th century viewed history as a set of heterogenous and complex events and statistical tables as giving unrelated facts. Both these attitudes had to be broken down before time-series graphs could be brought into use for revealing regularities in economic events by the century's end.

Timing and climatic imprint of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from Northern Turkey

A 50 kyr-long exceptionally well-dated and highly resolved stalagmite oxygen (δ 18O) and carbon (δ 13C) isotope record from Sofular Cave in northwestern Turkey helps to further improve the dating of Greenland Interstadials (GI) 1, and 3–12. Timing of most GI in the Sofular record is consistent within ±10 to 300 years with the “iconic” Hulu Cave record. Larger divergences (>500 years) between Sofular and Hulu are only observed for GI 4 and 7. The Sofular record differs from the most recent NGRIP chronology by up to several centuries, whereas age offsets do not increase systematically with depth. The Sofular record also reveals a rapid and sensitive climate and ecosystem response in the eastern Mediterranean to GI, whereas a phase lag of ∼100 years between climate and full ecosystem response is evident. Finally, results of spectral analyses of the Sofular isotope records do not support a 1,470-year pacing of GI.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchronisation. This calls for detailed knowledge of when, and on what occasions many people engage in the same activities at the same time, of how such patterns are changing, and of how might they be shaped. In addition, the impact of smart meters and controls partly depends on whether there is, in fact scope for shifting the timing of what people do, and for changing the rhythm of the day. Is the scheduling of daily life an arena that policy can influence, and if so how? The DEMAND Centre has been linking time use, energy consumption and travel diary data as a means of addressing these questions and in this working paper we present some of the issues and results arising from that exercise.

Exploring farmer preferences for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia vaccination: a case study of Narok District, Kenya

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p<0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p>0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines.

Evaluation of Experimental Vaccination Against Newcastle Disease in Lovebirds (Agapornis roseicollis): Investigation of the State of Virus Carrier.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of vaccination against Newcastle Disease (ND) in lovebirds (Agapornis roseicollis) and to investigate the state of carrier of the virus (NDV) in this species. There were used 48 lovebirds, distributed at random into 4 experimental groups: GI (Ulster 2C strain), Gil (B1 strain), Gill (LaSota strain) and GIV (non-vaccinated group). At 12 months of age, all groups were challenged with a pathogenic virus (NDV) suspension (ElD50 = 1081510.1 mL) and a group of Specific-Pathogen-Free (SPF) chicks were used as control of the virus. Cloaca) swabs from each bird were collected after 9, 14 and 21 days post-challenge for detection of genome viral excretion by Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction RT-PCR. Lovebirds of GI, Gil and Gill did not demonstrate any signs of ND. They were refractory to the clinical disease. In lovebirds from the control group, NDV genome was detected 9 and 21 days after challenge. Therefore it was demonstrated the state of carrier of NDV by lovebirds. In birds from the vaccinated groups, genome viral excretion was not detected by RT-PCR. It was also demonstrated the importance of the vaccination in the suppression of the state of virus carrier of ND in lovebirds.

Evaluation of experimental vaccination in chinese goose (Anser cygnoides) against newcastle disease: Investigation of the state of virus carrier

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Prevalence of influenza and adherence to the anti-flu vaccination among elderly

Introduction: The flu, a condition that can affect the elderly by increasing the risk of serious complications can be prevented through vaccination. Estimate the prevalence of signs and symptoms suggestive of influenza in a group of elderly either vaccinated or unvaccinated against influenza was the objective this study. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study performed in a Brazilian City. A structured questionnaire was employed to identify the presence of signs and symptoms of influenza in individuals aged 60 years or over. For analysis of associations between variables the prevalence ratio (PR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used. Results: One hundred ninety-six participants were interviewed, of whom 57.7% were female. The average age was 69.7 years. About 25% of the vaccinated and 20% of the unvaccinated in 2009, and 25% of the vaccinated and 22.5% of the unvaccinated in 2010 reported having the flu. Among the vaccinated and unvaccinated in 2009 and 2010, there was no verified association between vaccination and influenza (PR=1.24; [95% CI: 0.63-2.43] and PR=1.11; [95% CI: 0.59-2.09], respectively). Conclusions: This study suggests that, among the elderly selected, the vaccination coverage for influenza is below the ideal, even with projection of the best indices for 2011 ((similar to)84%). The data on vaccination and disease protection needs further research; however, the results point to the need for measures to better clarify to this population about the disease, its complications and the benefits of vaccination, in addition to combatting the stigma related to low adherence.

PReS-FINAL-2177: Safety and lack of autoantibody production following influenza H1N1 vaccination in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA)

Introduction Vaccination is an effective tool against several infectious agents including influenza. In 2010, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended influenza A H1N1/2009 immunization for high risk groups, including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients and more recently the EULAR task force reinforced the importance of vaccination in immunosuppressed pediatric rheumatologic patients. We have recently shown that Influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccination generated protective antibody production with short-term safety profile among 93 JIA patients, but the possible impact of the vaccine in autoimmune response in JIA have not been studied. Therefore, we aimed to assess the production of some autoantibodies generated following influenza H1N1 vaccination in JIA patients. Objectives To assess the autoimmune response and H1N1 serology following influenza H1N1 vaccination in patients with JIA. Methods Cepa A/California/7/2009 (NYMC X-179A) anti-H1N1 was used to vaccinate JIA patients: 1 dose of immunization was given to all participants and those <9yrs of age received a second booster 3 weeks apart. Sera were analyzed before and 3 weeks following complete vaccination. Serology against H1N1 virus was performed by hemagglutination inhibition antibody assay, rheumatoid factor (RF) by latex fixation test, antinuclear antibodies (ANA) by IIF, IgM and IgG anticardiolipin (aCL) by ELISA.Results Among 98 JIA patients that were vaccinated, 58 sera were available for this study. Mean age of 58 JIA patients was 23.9 ± 9.5 yrs, 38 were females and 20 males with mean disease duration of 14.7 ± 10.1 yrs. JIA subtypes were: 33 (57%) poliarticular, 10 (17%) oligoarticular, 6 (10%) systemic and 9 (16%) other. Sixteen patients were off drugs while 42 (72%) were under different pharmacotherapy: 32 (55%) were on 1 DMARD/IS, 10 (17%) on 2 DMARDs/IS, 19 (33%) antimalarials, 29 (50%) MTX, 8(14%) sulfasalazine, 6 (10%) anti-TNFs, 4 (7%) abatacept; no patient was using prednisone >0.5 mg/kg/d. Seroprotection rates against H1N1 influenza increased from 23 to 83% and seroconversion rates were achieved in 78% JIA. Prior to vaccination, 31(53.4%) JIA patients were ANA+, 6(10.3%) RF+, and 4 (7%) IgM + IgG aCL+. After complete H1N1 vaccination, positivity for ANA remained the same whereas 1 patient became negative for IgG aCL, and another for RF, IgM and IgG aCL. One (1.7%) patient turned low titer IgG aCL+. Conclusion Vaccination of JIA patients against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) generated successful protective antibody production without the induction of autoantibody production, except for 1 patient that became positive for low titer IgG aCL, supporting its safety.

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Intraperitoneal and intra-nasal vaccination of mice with three distinct recombinant Neospora caninum antigens results in differential effects with regard to protection against experimental challenge with Neospora caninum tachyzoites

Recombinant NcPDI(recNcPDI), NcROP2(recNcROP2), and NcMAG1(recNcMAG1) were expressed in Escherichia coli and purified, and evaluated as potential vaccine candidates by employing the C57Bl/6 mouse cerebral infection model. Intraperitoneal application of these proteins suspended in saponin adjuvants lead to protection against disease in 50% and 70% of mice vaccinated with recNcMAG1 and recNcROP2, respectively, while only 20% of mice vaccinated with recNcPDI remained without clinical signs. In contrast, a 90% protection rate was achieved following intra-nasal vaccination with recNcPDI emulsified in cholera toxin. Only 1 mouse vaccinated intra-nasally with recNcMAG1 survived the challenge infection, and protection achieved with intra-nasally applied recNcROP2 was at 60%. Determination of cerebral parasite burdens by real-time PCR showed that these were significantly reduced only in recNcROP2-vaccinated animals (following intraperitoneal and intra-nasal application) and in recNcPDI-vaccinated mice (intra-nasal application only). Quantification of viable tachyzoites in brain tissue of intra-nasally vaccinated mice showed that immunization with recNcPDI resulted in significantly decreased numbers of live parasites. These data show that, besides the nature of the antigen, the protective effect of vaccination also depends largely on the route of antigen delivery. In the case of recNcPDI, the intra-nasal route provides a platform to generate a highly protective immune response.

Cranioplasty after decompressive craniectomy: the effect of timing on postoperative complications

Decompressive craniectomy (DC) due to intractably elevated intracranial pressure mandates later cranioplasty (CP). However, the optimal timing of CP remains controversial. We therefore analyzed our prospectively conducted database concerning the timing of CP and associated post-operative complications. From October 1999 to August 2011, 280 cranioplasty procedures were performed at the authors' institution. Patients were stratified into two groups according to the time from DC to cranioplasty (early, ≤2 months, and late, >2 months). Patient characteristics, timing of CP, and CP-related complications were analyzed. Overall CP was performed early in 19% and late in 81%. The overall complication rate was 16.4%. Complications after CP included epidural or subdural hematoma (6%), wound healing disturbance (5.7%), abscess (1.4%), hygroma (1.1%), cerebrospinal fluid fistula (1.1%), and other (1.1%). Patients who underwent early CP suffered significantly more often from complications compared to patients who underwent late CP (25.9% versus 14.2%; p=0.04). Patients with ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt had a significantly higher rate of complications after CP compared to patients without VP shunt (p=0.007). On multivariate analysis, early CP, the presence of a VP shunt, and intracerebral hemorrhage as underlying pathology for DC, were significant predictors of post-operative complications after CP. We provide detailed data on surgical timing and complications for cranioplasty after DC. The present data suggest that patients who undergo late CP might benefit from a lower complication rate. This might influence future surgical decision making regarding optimal timing of cranioplasty.

The influence of measles vaccination on the incidence of otosclerosis in Germany

The pathologic process of otosclerosis is characterized by an inflammatory lytic phase followed by an abnormal bone remodeling at very specific sites of predilection. There is a clear genetic predisposition with about half of all cases occurring in families with more than one affected member. Females are affected more frequently than males with an approximate 2:1 ratio. N, H, and F measles proteins as well as measles virus RNA have been demonstrated in osteoblasts, chondroblasts, and macrophages of the inflammatory phase of the disease. These observations merely show an association between measles viruses and otosclerosis. In the present study, we tried to prove that there is a causal relationship: voluntary measles vaccination has been available in Germany since 1974. In the absence of official data, we reconstructed the rate of vaccination coverage between 1974 and 2004 using information from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI, Berlin) and from the literature. From the German Federal Office of Statistics, we received the data of 64,112 patients who had been hospitalized between 1993 and 2004 and in whom otosclerosis (ICD-9: 387; ICD-10: H80) had been confirmed. We calculated the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the period from 1993 to 2004 in Germany. For this purpose, we divided the female and male otosclerosis patients treated as inpatients each year in the observation period into two age groups: those up to 25 years, who had in most cases been vaccinated (designated below as "vaccinated patients") and those over 25 years who mostly could not have been vaccinated (designated below as "unvaccinated patients"). We calculated the incidence of otosclerosis requiring inpatient treatment for the two age groups in each year in the period of observation. For external validation of the study results, the same analysis was carried out in all patients who received inpatient treatment for otitis media in the same period. Between 1993 and 2004 the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis decreased to a significantly greater extent in the vaccinated patients than in the unvaccinated patients. The decline is much greater in men than in women. A comparable effect cannot be demonstrated in patients with otitis media. The results indicate that measles vaccination in Germany has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the vaccinated age groups. We conclude that there is a causal relationship between measles viruses and the development of otosclerosis.

Differential effects of intranasal vaccination with recombinant NcPDI in different mouse models of Neospora caninum infection

In this study, mice were vaccinated intranasally with recombinant N. caninum protein disulphide isomerase (NcPDI) emulsified in cholera toxin (CT) or cholera toxin subunit B (CTB) from Vibrio cholerae. The effects of vaccination were assessed in the murine nonpregnant model and the foetal infection model, respectively. In the nonpregnant mice, previous results were confirmed, in that intranasal vaccination with recNcPDI in CT was highly protective, and low cerebral parasite loads were noted upon real-time PCR analysis. Protection was accompanied by an IgG1-biased anti-NcPDI response upon infection and significantly increased expression of Th2 (IL-4/IL-10) and IL-17 transcripts in spleen compared with corresponding values in mice treated with CT only. However, vaccination with recNcPDI in CT did not induce significant protection in dams and their offspring. In the dams, increased splenic Th1 (IFN-γ/IL-12) and Th17 mRNA expressions was detected. No protection was noted in the groups vaccinated with recNcPDI emulsified in CTB. Thus, vaccination with recNcPDI in CT in nonpregnant mice followed by challenge infection induced a protective Th2-biased immune response, while in the pregnant mouse model, the same vaccine formulation resulted in a Th1-biased inflammatory response and failed to protect dams and their progeny.

Learning reward timing in cortex through reward dependent expression of synaptic plasticity.

The ability to represent time is an essential component of cognition but its neural basis is unknown. Although extensively studied both behaviorally and electrophysiologically, a general theoretical framework describing the elementary neural mechanisms used by the brain to learn temporal representations is lacking. It is commonly believed that the underlying cellular mechanisms reside in high order cortical regions but recent studies show sustained neural activity in primary sensory cortices that can represent the timing of expected reward. Here, we show that local cortical networks can learn temporal representations through a simple framework predicated on reward dependent expression of synaptic plasticity. We assert that temporal representations are stored in the lateral synaptic connections between neurons and demonstrate that reward-modulated plasticity is sufficient to learn these representations. We implement our model numerically to explain reward-time learning in the primary visual cortex (V1), demonstrate experimental support, and suggest additional experimentally verifiable predictions.