A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

COMPARAÇÃO DE MODELOS DE AVALIAÇÃO DE DESEMPENHO DE EQUIPES MULTIFUNCIONAIS BASEADOS EM CONCEITOS DE INTERAÇÃO DE GRUPOS E FERRAMENTAS DE ANÁLISE COMPORTAMENTAL

Avaliação de desempenho de equipes multifuncionais é um conceito que tem sido abordado mais freqüentemente nas últimas duas décadas. Diversas teorias e conceitos foram desenvolvidos para tornar as avaliações menos qualitativas ou fundamentadas em percepções, compreendendo um conjunto de diferentes técnicas interpretativas que visam descrever e decodificar os componentes de um sistema complexo de significados. Com esse foco o projeto comparou três modelos de avaliação de desempenho de equipes. O primeiro modelo baseado na personalidade do participante, afirma que os resultados das equipes são influenciados pela seleção prévia dos participantes e que as características individuais desses participantes são críticas para o desempenho da equipe. O segundo modelo fundamenta suas afirmações nas relações interconectadas de positividade e negatividade; questionamento e argumentação e atuação em equipe. O terceiro modelo baseado no processo de interação de grupos também avalia as relações que influenciam o alto desempenho de equipes multifuncionais. Os três modelos foram comparados, através de um estudo de caso único em indústria química paulista, medindo-se os resultados de correlação das equipes e as interações entre os participantes das equipes. As metas atingidas pelas equipes foram utilizadas para suportar os resultados das avaliações dos modelos como sistema de avaliação de equipes. Pode-se concluir que houve uma aproximação satisfatória confirmando a influência sugerida pelos modelos avaliados. A comparação entre os três modelos não permitiu afirmar qual dos três modelos é mais eficaz para avaliação de equipes. Entretanto, é possível, sugerir que a combinação de elementos dos três modelos permitirá a construção de um processo eficaz e prático de avaliação de equipes.(AU)

DETERMINAÇÃO DAS FORMAS DO ARCO DENTÁRIO INFERIOR NA OCLUSÃO NORMAL NATURAL

Com a finalidade de determinar as formas do arco dentário inferior de maior incidência na oclusão normal natural, utilizou-se um método matemático associado ao emprego de uma função polinomial, o qual foi aplicado a 63 modelos de arcadas inferiores selecionados a partir de 6118 adolescentes. Todos os indivíduos eram portadores de dentição permanente, incluindo os segundos molares, e oclusão normal natural. Em cada dente foi fixada uma esfera de vidro, que teve a função de simular o acessório do aparelho ortodôntico, sendo utilizada na medição das distâncias entre o centro da imagem dessas esferas aos eixos x e y. Após a digitalização dos modelos de gesso, as imagens foram plotadas em um programa de computador, a fim de se obterem a função polinomial de sexto grau e o gráfico dessa função para os 126 segmentos de curva, originados das secções das imagens em lado direito e esquerdo. A seguir organizaram-se esses segmentos, de acordo com as características da curvatura anterior dos arcos dentários, em oito grupos diferentes de formas, que receberam as denominações de Forma A, Forma B, Forma C, Forma D, Forma E, Forma F, Forma G, Forma H. Cada grupo foi, então, dividido em três subgrupos, conforme os tamanhos pequeno, médio e grande. Os resultados indicaram 23 formas representativas do arco dentário inferior e uma forma média para a oclusão normal natural.

Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

Interocular masking and summation indicate two stages of divisive contrast gain control

Our understanding of early spatial vision owes much to contrast masking and summation paradigms. In particular, the deep region of facilitation at low mask contrasts is thought to indicate a rapidly accelerating contrast transducer (eg a square-law or greater). In experiment 1, we tapped an early stage of this process by measuring monocular and binocular thresholds for patches of 1 cycle deg-1 sine-wave grating. Threshold ratios were around 1.7, implying a nearly linear transducer with an exponent around 1.3. With this form of transducer, two previous models (Legge, 1984 Vision Research 24 385 - 394; Meese et al, 2004 Perception 33 Supplement, 41) failed to fit the monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking functions measured in experiment 2. However, a new model with two-stages of divisive gain control fits the data very well. Stage 1 incorporates nearly linear monocular transducers (to account for the high level of binocular summation and slight dichoptic facilitation), and monocular and interocular suppression (to fit the profound 42 Oral presentations: Spatial vision Thursday dichoptic masking). Stage 2 incorporates steeply accelerating transduction (to fit the deep regions of monocular and binocular facilitation), and binocular summation and suppression (to fit the monocular and binocular masking). With all model parameters fixed from the discrimination thresholds, we examined the slopes of the psychometric functions. The monocular and binocular slopes were steep (Weibull ߘ3-4) at very low mask contrasts and shallow (ߘ1.2) at all higher contrasts, as predicted by all three models. The dichoptic slopes were steep (ߘ3-4) at very low contrasts, and very steep (ß>5.5) at high contrasts (confirming Meese et al, loco cit.). A crucial new result was that intermediate dichoptic mask contrasts produced shallow slopes (ߘ2). Only the two-stage model predicted the observed pattern of slope variation, so providing good empirical support for a two-stage process of binocular contrast transduction. [Supported by EPSRC GR/S74515/01]

Studies of solar radiation and its measurement

A mathematical model has been developed for predicting the spectral distribution of solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface. The solar spectrum in the wavelength range 0.29 to 4.0 micrometers has been divided in 144 intervals. Two variables in the model are the atmospheric water vapour content and atmospheric turbidity. After allowing for absorption and scattering in the atmosphere, the spectral intensity of direct and diffuse components of radiation are computed. When the predicted radiation levels are compared with the measured values for the total radiation and the values with glass filters RG715, RG630 and OG530, a close agreement (± 5%) has been achieved under clear sky conditions. A solar radiation measuring facility, close to the centre of Birmingham, has been set up utilising a microcomputer based data logging system. A suite of computer programs in the BASIC programming language has been developed and extensively tested for solar radiation data, logging, analysis and plotting. Two commonly used instruments, the Eppley PSP pyranometer and the Kipp and Zonen CM5 pyranometer, have been compared under different experimental conditions. Three models for computing the inclined plane irradiation, using total and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, have been tested for Birmingham. The anisotropic-alI-sky model, proposed by Klucher, provides a good agreement between the measured and the predicted radiation levels. Measurements of solar spectral distribution, using glass filters, are also reported for a number of inclines facing South.

On the 'classification' of neurodegenerative disorders:discrete entities, overlap or continuum?

The traditional method of classifying neurodegenerative diseases is based on the original clinico-pathological concept supported by 'consensus' criteria and data from molecular pathological studies. This review discusses first, current problems in classification resulting from the coexistence of different classificatory schemes, the presence of disease heterogeneity and multiple pathologies, the use of 'signature' brain lesions in diagnosis, and the existence of pathological processes common to different diseases. Second, three models of neurodegenerative disease are proposed: (1) that distinct diseases exist ('discrete' model), (2) that relatively distinct diseases exist but exhibit overlapping features ('overlap' model), and (3) that distinct diseases do not exist and neurodegenerative disease is a 'continuum' in which there is continuous variation in clinical/pathological features from one case to another ('continuum' model). Third, to distinguish between models, the distribution of the most important molecular 'signature' lesions across the different diseases is reviewed. Such lesions often have poor 'fidelity', i.e., they are not unique to individual disorders but are distributed across many diseases consistent with the overlap or continuum models. Fourth, the question of whether the current classificatory system should be rejected is considered and three alternatives are proposed, viz., objective classification, classification for convenience (a 'dissection'), or analysis as a continuum.

Internationalization of small and medium sized UK manufacturing enterprises:technology and knowledge transfer perspective

This dissertation examines internationalisation of small and medium sized enterprises. There has been a journey to achieve this. The research has started as an action research as Teaching Company Scheme Associate. This has been done in two research cycles, which investigated factors for successful internationalisation of a small and medium sized UK manufacturing enterprise. This has revealed that successful internationalisation requires good technology and knowledge transfer to the new operations. The action research is followed by a survey that has been conducted within UK manufacturing companies. The data collected was analysed under three models: entry mode selection, role of factory and level of internationalisation. The first two models explain two major aspects of internationalisation decision. The last is showing what makes successful internationalising small and medium sized companies. These models provided several important results. The small and medium sized enterprise internationalisation is harder to achieve because most of these organisations do not have experience in technology and knowledge transfer. The success of internationalisation depends on the success of the transfer. This is achieved through employee ownership of the new knowledge. There are many factors affecting this result such as the network relationships such as trust, control and commitment and cognitive distance between two organisations. The last is a product of the difference between prior knowledge and the required level of knowledge. The entry mode and role of factory are decided through these factors while the level of internationalisation can only be explained by absorptive capacity of the recipient organisation and the technology transfer ability of the host organisation.

Investigating the process of translation:humour translation norms, strategies and approaches in children's literature

Research in the present thesis is focused on the norms, strategies,and approaches which translators employ when translating humour in Children's Literature from English into Greek. It is based on process-oriented descriptive translation studies, since the focus is on investigating the process of translation. Viewing translation as a cognitive process and a problem soling activity, this thesis Think-aloud protocols (TAPs) in order to investigate translator's minds. As it is not possible to directly observe the human mind at work, an attempt is made to ask the translators themselves to reveal their mental processes in real time by verbalising their thoughts while carrying out a translation task involving humour. In this study, thirty participants at three different levels of expertise in translation competence, i.e. tn beginner, ten competent, and ten experts translators, were requested to translate two humourous extracts from the fictional diary novel The Secret Diary of Adrian Mole, Aged 13 ¾ by Sue Townsend (1982) from English into Greek. As they translated, they were asked to verbalise their thoughts and reason them, whenever possible, so that their strategies and approaches could be detected, and that subsequently, the norms that govern these strategies and approaches could be revealed. The thesis consists of four parts: the introduction, the literature review, the study, and the conclusion, and is developed in eleven chapters. the introduction contextualises the study within translation studies (TS) and presents its rationale, research questions, aims, and significance. Chapters 1 to 7 present an extensive and inclusive literature review identifying the principles axioms that guide and inform the study. In these seven chapters the following areas are critically introduced: Children's literature (Chapter 1), Children's Literature Translation (Chapter 2), Norms in Children's Literature (Chapter 3), Strategies in Children's Literature (Chapter 4), Humour in Children's Literature Translation (Chapter 5), Development of Translation Competence (Chapter 6), and Translation Process Research (Chapter 7). In Chapters 8 - 11 the fieldwork is described in detail. the piolot and the man study are described with a reference to he environments and setting, the participants, the research -observer, the data and its analysis, and limitations of the study. The findings of the study are presented and analysed in Chapter 9. Three models are then suggested for systematising translators' norms, strategies, and approaches, thus, filling the existing gap in the field. Pedagogical norms (e.g. appropriateness/correctness, famililarity, simplicity, comprehensibility, and toning down), literary norms (e.g. sound of language and fluency). and source-text norms (e.g. equivalence) were revealed to b the most prominent general and specific norms governing the translators'  strategies and approaches in the process of translating humour in ChL. The data also revealed that monitoring and communication strategies (e.g. additions, omissions, and exoticism) were the prevalent strategies employed by translators. In Chapter 10 the main findings and outcomes of a potential secondary benefit (beneficial outcomes) are discussed on the basis of the research questions and aims of the study, and implications of the study are tackled in Chapter 11. In the conclusion, suggestions for future directions are given and final remarks noted.

A fuzzy expected value approach under generalized data envelopment analysis

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA) models emerge as another class of DEA models to account for imprecise inputs and outputs for decision making units (DMUs). Although several approaches for solving fuzzy DEA models have been developed, there are some drawbacks, ranging from the inability to provide satisfactory discrimination power to simplistic numerical examples that handles only triangular fuzzy numbers or symmetrical fuzzy numbers. To address these drawbacks, this paper proposes using the concept of expected value in generalized DEA (GDEA) model. This allows the unification of three models - fuzzy expected CCR, fuzzy expected BCC, and fuzzy expected FDH models - and the ability of these models to handle both symmetrical and asymmetrical fuzzy numbers. We also explored the role of fuzzy GDEA model as a ranking method and compared it to existing super-efficiency evaluation models. Our proposed model is always feasible, while infeasibility problems remain in certain cases under existing super-efficiency models. In order to illustrate the performance of the proposed method, it is first tested using two established numerical examples and compared with the results obtained from alternative methods. A third example on energy dependency among 23 European Union (EU) member countries is further used to validate and describe the efficacy of our approach under asymmetric fuzzy numbers.

Dinamikus optimalizálás és a Leontief-modell (Dynamic optimization and the Leontief model)

A tanulmány a variációszámítás gazdasági alkalmazásaiból ismertet hármat. Mindhárom alkalmazás a Leontief-modellen alapszik. Az optimális pályák vizsgálata után arra keressük a választ, hogy az Euler–Lagrange-differenciálegyenlet rendszerrel kapott megoldások valóban optimális megoldásai-e a modelleknek. Arra a következtetésre jut a tanulmány, hogy csak pótlólagos közgazdasági feltételek bevezetésével határozhatók meg az optimális megoldások. Ugyanakkor a megfogalmazott feltételek segítségével az ismertetett modellek egy általánosabb keretbe illeszthetők. A tanulmány végső eredménye az, hogy mind a három modell optimális megoldása a Neumann-sugárnak felel meg. /===/ The study presents three economic applications of variation calculations. All three rely on the Leontief model. After examination of the optimal courses, an answer is sought to whether the solutions to the Euler–Lagrange differential equation system are really opti-mal solutions to the models. The study concludes that the optimal solutions can only be determined by introducing additional economic conditions. At the same time, the models presented can be fitted into a general framework with the help of the conditions outlined. The final conclusion of the study is that the optimal solution of all three models fits into the Neumann band.

Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Talk and silence: instantiations and articulations

This paper considers the desire for unity, reconciliation and consensus underpinning three models of talking – namely, 'the meeting', 'the dyadic love relationship', and 'the psychoanalytic session'. We highlight the three domains’ shared intellectual and historical heritage wherein talk is seen as a mode of achieving unity (of the group, of the dyad, or of the self) and conversely 'silence' is seen as pathology. Through looking at the role of silence in the works of Lacan, Joyce, and Beckett, we then examine how conversations with a collective, an Other, the self, etc. can all be enriched by ambivalence, antagonism and, in particular, silence. In contrast to the conventional understanding, silence is not the 'end' of understanding, but rather a new beginning. From this perspective, silence can be the basis upon which we can begin to imagine a principled relationship with the Other.