The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Application of the dynamic models to the detection of imperfections in plate Structures

This paper is part of a set of publications related with the development of mathematical models aimed to simulate the dynamic input and output of experimental nondestructive tests in order to detect structural imperfections. The structures to be considered are composed by steel plates of thin thickness. The imperfections in these cases are cracks and they can penetrate either a significant part of the plate thickness or be micro cracks or superficial imperfections. The first class of cracks is related with structural safety and the second one is more connected to the structural protection to the environment, particularly if protective paintings can be deteriorated. Two mathematical groups of models have been developed. The first group tries to locate the position and extension of the imperfection of the first class of imperfections, i.e. cracks and it is the object of the present paper. Bending Kirchoff thin plate models belong to this first group and they are used to this respect. The another group of models is dealt with membrane structures under the superficial Rayleigh waves excitation. With this group of models the micro cracks detection is intended. In the application of the first group of models to the detection of cracks, it has been observed that the differences between the natural frequencies of the non cracked and the cracked structures are very small. However, geometry and crack position can be identified quite accurately if this comparison is carried out between first derivatives (mode rotations) of the natural modes are used instead. Finally, in relation with the analysis of the superficial crack existence the use of Rayleigh waves is very promising. The geometry and the penetration of the micro crack can be detected very accurately. The mathematical and numerical treatment of the generation of these Rayleigh waves present and a numerical application has been shown.

Optimal design of a beam subjected to compression forces in the framework of different structural models

The optimal design of a vertical cantilever beam is presented in this paper. The beam is assumed immersed in an elastic Winkler soil and subjected to several loads: a point force at the tip section, its self weight and a uniform distributed load along its length. lbe optimal design problem is to find the beam of a given length and minimum volume, such that the resultant compressive stresses are admisible. This prohlem is analyzed according to linear elasticity theory and within different alternative structural models: column, Navier-Bernoulli beam-column, Timoshenko beamcolumn (i.e. with shear strain) under conservative loads, typically, constant direction loads. Results obtained in each case are compared, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of model on the numerical results. The beam optimal design is described by the section distribution layout (area, second moment, shear area etc.) along the beam span and the corresponding beam total volume. Other situations, some of them very interesting from a theoretical point of view, with follower loads (Beck and Leipholz problems) are also discussed, leaving for future work numerical details and results.

A unified theory of carcinogenesis based on order–disorder transitions in DNA structure as studied in the human ovary and breast

Fourier transform-infrared/statistics models demonstrate that the malignant transformation of morphologically normal human ovarian and breast tissues involves the creation of a high degree of structural modification (disorder) in DNA, before restoration of order in distant metastases. Order–disorder transitions were revealed by methods including principal components analysis of infrared spectra in which DNA samples were represented by points in two-dimensional space. Differences between the geometric sizes of clusters of points and between their locations revealed the magnitude of the order–disorder transitions. Infrared spectra provided evidence for the types of structural changes involved. Normal ovarian DNAs formed a tight cluster comparable to that of normal human blood leukocytes. The DNAs of ovarian primary carcinomas, including those that had given rise to metastases, had a high degree of disorder, whereas the DNAs of distant metastases from ovarian carcinomas were relatively ordered. However, the spectra of the metastases were more diverse than those of normal ovarian DNAs in regions assigned to base vibrations, implying increased genetic changes. DNAs of normal female breasts were substantially disordered (e.g., compared with the human blood leukocytes) as were those of the primary carcinomas, whether or not they had metastasized. The DNAs of distant breast cancer metastases were relatively ordered. These findings evoke a unified theory of carcinogenesis in which the creation of disorder in the DNA structure is an obligatory process followed by the selection of ordered, mutated DNA forms that ultimately give rise to metastases.

Unifying theory of hypoxia tolerance: molecular/metabolic defense and rescue mechanisms for surviving oxygen lack.

We develop a unifying theory of hypoxia tolerance based on information from two cell level models (brain cortical cells and isolated hepatocytes) from the highly anoxia tolerant aquatic turtle and from other more hypoxia sensitive systems. We propose that the response of hypoxia tolerant systems to oxygen lack occurs in two phases (defense and rescue). The first lines of defense against hypoxia include a balanced suppression of ATP-demand and ATP-supply pathways; this regulation stabilizes (adenylates) at new steady-state levels even while ATP turnover rates greatly decline. The ATP demands of ion pumping are down-regulated by generalized "channel" arrest in hepatocytes and by "spike" arrest in neurons. Hypoxic ATP demands of protein synthesis are down-regulated probably by translational arrest. In hypoxia sensitive cells this translational arrest seems irreversible, but hypoxia-tolerant systems activate "rescue" mechanisms if the period of oxygen lack is extended by preferentially regulating the expression of several proteins. In these cells, a cascade of processes underpinning hypoxia rescue and defense begins with an oxygen sensor (a heme protein) and a signal-transduction pathway, which leads to significant gene-based metabolic reprogramming-the rescue process-with maintained down-regulation of energy-demand and energy-supply pathways in metabolism throughout the hypoxic period. This recent work begins to clarify how normoxic maintenance ATP turnover rates can be drastically (10-fold) down-regulated to a new hypometabolic steady state, which is prerequisite for surviving prolonged hypoxia or anoxia. The implications of these developments are extensive in biology and medicine.

Monetary Effervescence: A Sociological Theory of Religion Applied to Money

This project attempts to answer the question "What holds the construction of money together?" by asserting that it is money's religious nature which provides the moral compulsion for people to use, and continue to uphold, money as a socially constructed concept. This project is primarily descriptive and focuses on the religious nature of money by employing a sociological theory of religion in viewing money as a technical concept. This is an interdisciplinary work between religious studies, economics, and sociology and draws heavily from Emile Durkheim's 'The Elementary Forms of Religious Life' as well as work related to heterodox theories of money developed by Geoffrey Ingham, A. Mitchell Innes, and David Graeber. Two new concepts are developed: the idea of monetary sacrality and monetary effervescence, both of which serve to recharge the religious saliency of money. By developing the concept of monetary sacrality, this project shows how money acts to interpret our economic relations while also obfuscating complex power dynamics in society, making them seem naturally occurring and unchangeable. The project also shows how our contemporary fractional reserve banking system contributes to money's collective effervescence and serves to animate economic acting within a monetary network. The project concludes by outlining multiple implications for religious studies, economics, sociology, and central banking.

Cotunneling theory of atomic spin inelastic electron tunneling spectroscopy

We propose cotunneling as the microscopic mechanism that makes possible inelastic electron tunneling spectroscopy of magnetic atoms in surfaces for a wide range of systems, including single magnetic adatoms, molecules, and molecular stacks. We describe electronic transport between the scanning tip and the conducting surface through the magnetic system (MS) with a generalized Anderson model, without making use of effective spin models. Transport and spin dynamics are described with an effective cotunneling Hamiltonian in which the correlations in the magnetic system are calculated exactly and the coupling to the electrodes is included up to second order in the tip MS and MS substrate. In the adequate limit our approach is equivalent to the phenomenological Kondo exchange model that successfully describes the experiments. We apply our method to study in detail inelastic transport in two systems, stacks of cobalt phthalocyanines and a single Mn atom on Cu2N. Our method accounts for both the large contribution of the inelastic spin exchange events to the conductance and the observed conductance asymmetry.

Impact of economic crisis on mental health of migrant workers: what happened with migrants who came to Spain to work?

Objectives: To assess changes in mental health in a sample of migrant workers after the eruption of the economic crisis in Spain. Methods: 318 migrant workers were interviewed. Mental health, sociodemographic, and economic crisis related variables were obtained through face-to-face (2008) and phone (2011) interviews. Prevalence of poor mental health (PMH) was compared (2011–2008) and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted. Results: Change in prevalence of PMH was higher in men (aOR 4.63; 95 % CI 2.11–10.16). Subgroups of men showing the largest detrimental mental health effects were: unemployed, with low salaries (≤1,200 euros) and those reporting family burden. An increase of PMH was found in women, without significant associations. Conclusions: Mental health of migrant workers in Spain has worsened during the economic crisis.

Changes in Access to Health Services of the Immigrant and Native-Born Population in Spain in the Context of Economic Crisis

Aim: To analyze changes in access to health care and its determinants in the immigrant and native-born populations in Spain, before and during the economic crisis. Methods: Comparative analysis of two iterations of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006 and 2012). Outcome variables were: unmet need and use of different healthcare levels; explanatory variables: need, predisposing and enabling factors. Multivariate models were performed (1) to compare outcome variables in each group between years, (2) to compare outcome variables between both groups within each year, and (3) to determine the factors associated with health service use for each group and year. Results: unmet healthcare needs decreased in 2012 compared to 2006; the use of health services remained constant, with some changes worth highlighting, such as the decline in general practitioner visits among autochthons and a narrowed gap in specialist visits between the two populations. The factors associated with health service use in 2006 remained constant in 2012. Conclusion: Access to healthcare did not worsen, possibly due to the fact that, until 2012, the national health system may have cushioned the deterioration of social determinants as a consequence of the financial crisis. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the effects of health policy responses to the crisis after 2012.

Diversity for Texts Builds in Language L(MT): Indexes Based in Theory of Information

If one has a distribution of words (SLUNs or CLUNS) in a text written in language L(MT), and is adjusted one of the mathematical expressions of distribution that exists in the mathematical literature, some parameter of the elected expression it can be considered as a measure of the diversity. But because the adjustment is not always perfect as usual measure; it is preferable to select an index that doesn't postulate a regularity of distribution expressible for a simple formula. The problem can be approachable statistically, without having special interest for the organization of the text. It can serve as index any monotonous function that has a minimum value when all their elements belong to the same class, that is to say, all the individuals belong to oneself symbol, and a maximum value when each element belongs to a different class, that is to say, each individual is of a different symbol. It should also gather certain conditions like they are: to be not very sensitive to the extension of the text and being invariant to certain number of operations of selection in the text. These operations can be theoretically random. The expressions that offer more advantages are those coming from the theory of the information of Shannon-Weaver. Based on them, the authors develop a theoretical study for indexes of diversity to be applied in texts built in modeling language L(MT), although anything impedes that they can be applied to texts written in natural languages.

Algorithm for the detection of outliers based on the theory of rough sets

Outliers are objects that show abnormal behavior with respect to their context or that have unexpected values in some of their parameters. In decision-making processes, information quality is of the utmost importance. In specific applications, an outlying data element may represent an important deviation in a production process or a damaged sensor. Therefore, the ability to detect these elements could make the difference between making a correct and an incorrect decision. This task is complicated by the large sizes of typical databases. Due to their importance in search processes in large volumes of data, researchers pay special attention to the development of efficient outlier detection techniques. This article presents a computationally efficient algorithm for the detection of outliers in large volumes of information. This proposal is based on an extension of the mathematical framework upon which the basic theory of detection of outliers, founded on Rough Set Theory, has been constructed. From this starting point, current problems are analyzed; a detection method is proposed, along with a computational algorithm that allows the performance of outlier detection tasks with an almost-linear complexity. To illustrate its viability, the results of the application of the outlier-detection algorithm to the concrete example of a large database are presented.

Health inequality between immigrants and natives in Spain: the loss of the healthy immigrant effect in times of economic crisis

Background: The immigrant population living in Spain grew exponentially in the early 2000s but has been particularly affected by the economic crisis. This study aims to analyse health inequalities between immigrants born in middle- or low-income countries and natives in Spain, in 2006 and 2012, taking into account gender, year of arrival and socioeconomic exposures. Methods: Study of trends using two cross-sections, the 2006 and 2012 editions of the Spanish National Health Survey, including residents in Spain aged 15–64 years (20 810 natives and 2950 immigrants in 2006, 14 291 natives and 2448 immigrants in 2012). Fair/poor self-rated health, poor mental health (GHQ-12 > 2), chronic activity limitation and use of psychotropic drugs were compared between natives and immigrants who arrived in Spain before 2006, adjusting robust Poisson regression models for age and socioeconomic variables to obtain prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Inequalities in poor self-rated health between immigrants and natives tend to increase among women (age-adjusted PR2006 = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.24–1.56, PR2012 = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.33–1.82). Among men, there is a new onset of inequalities in poor mental health (PR2006 = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.86–1.40, PR2012 = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.06–1.69) and an equalization of the previously lower use of psychotropic drugs (PR2006 = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.11–0.43, PR2012 = 1.20; 95% CI: 0.73–2.01). Conclusions: Between 2006 and 2012, immigrants who arrived in Spain before 2006 appeared to worsen their health status when compared with natives. The loss of the healthy immigrant effect in the context of a worse impact of the economic crisis on immigrants appears as potential explanation. Employment, social protection and re-universalization of healthcare would prevent further deterioration of immigrants’ health status.

The effects of economic crises on tourism success: an integrated model

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

The Theory of Interhybridity: Socio-political Dimensions and Migration Experiences of Post-communist Western Balkan States

The Western Balkans integration within the EU has started a legal process which is the rejection of former communist legal/political approaches and the transformation of former communist institutions. Indeed, the EU agenda has brought vertical/horizontal integration and Europeanization of national institutions (i.e. shifting power to the EU institutions and international authorities). At this point, it is very crucial to emphasize the fact that the Western Balkans as a whole region has currently an image that includes characteristics of both the Soviet socialism and the European democracy. The EU foreign policies and enlargement strategy for Western Balkans have significant effects on four core factors (i.e. Schengen visa regulations, remittances, asylum and migration as an aggregate process). The convergence/divergence of EU member states’ priorities for migration policies regulate and even shape directly the migration dynamics in migrant sender countries. From this standpoint, the research explores how main migration factors are influenced by political and judicial factors such as; rule of law and democracy score, the economic liberation score, political and human rights, civil society score and citizenship rights in Western Balkan countries. The proposal of interhybridity explores how the hybridization of state and non-state actors within home and host countries can solve labor migration-related problems. The economical and sociopolitical labor-migration model of Basu (2009) is overlapping with the multidimensional empirical framework of interhybridity. Indisputably, hybrid model (i.e. collaboration state and non-state actors) has a catalyst role in terms of balancing social problems and civil society needs. Paradigmatically, it is better to perceive the hybrid model as a combination of communicative and strategic action that means the reciprocal recognition within the model is precondition for significant functionality. This will shape social and industrial relations with moral meanings of communication.