Late Quaternary lake-level record from northern Eurasia

Lake records from northern Eurasia show regionally coherent patterns of changes during the late Quaternary. Lakes peripheral to the Scandinavian ice sheet were lower than those today but lakes in the Mediterranean zone were high at the glacial maximum, reflecting the dominance of glacial anticyclonic conditions in northern Europe and a southward shift of the Westerlies. The influence of the glacial anticyclonic circulation attenuated through the late glacial period, and the Westerlies gradually shifted northward, such that drier conditions south of the ice sheet were confined to a progressively narrower zone and the Mediterranean became drier. The early Holocene shows a gradual shift to conditions wetter than present in central Asia, associated with the expanded Asian monsoon, and in the Mediterranean, in response to local, monsoon-type circulation. There is no evidence of mid-continental aridity in northern Eurasia during the mid-Holocene. In contrast, the circum-Baltic region was drier, reflecting the increased incidence of blocking anticyclones centered on Scandinavia in summer. There is a gradual transition to modern conditions after ca. 5000 yr B.P. Although these broad-scale patterns are interrupted by shorter term fluctuations, the long-term trends in lake behavior show a clear response to changes in insolation and glaciation.

Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations

We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean–atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.

Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.

Impacts of uplift of northern Tibetan Plateau and formation of Asian inland deserts on regional climate and environment

Based on the geological evidence that the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) had an uplift of a finite magnitude since the Miocene and the major Asian inland deserts formed in the early Pliocene, a regional climate model (RegCM4.1) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was used to explore the effects of the NTP uplift and the related aridification of inland Asia on regional climate. We designed three numerical experiments including the control experiment representing the present-day condition, the high-mountain experiment representing the early Pliocene condition with uplifted NTP but absence of the Asian inland deserts, and the low-mountain experiment representing the mid-Miocene condition with reduced topography in the NTP (by as much as 2400 m) and also absence of the deserts. Our simulation results indicated that the NTP uplift caused significant reductions in annual precipitation in a broad region of inland Asia north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) mainly due to the enhanced rain shadow effect of the mountains and changes in the regional circulations. However, four mountainous regions located in the uplift showed significant increases in precipitation, stretching from the Pamir Plateau in the west to the Qilian Mountains in the east. These mountainous areas also experienced different changes in the rainfall seasonality with the greatest increases occurring during the respective rainy seasons, predominantly resulted from the enhanced orographically forced upwind ascents. The appearance of the major deserts in the inland Asia further reduced precipitation in the region and led to increased dust emission and deposition fluxes, while the spatial patterns of dust deposition were also changed, not only in the regions of uplift-impacted topography, but also in the downwind regions. One major contribution from this study is the comparison of the simulation results with 11 existing geological records representing the moisture conditions from Miocene to Pliocene. The comparisons revealed good matches between the simulation results and the published geological records. Therefore, we conclude that the NTP uplift and the related formation of the major deserts played a controlling role in the evolution of regional climatic conditions in a broad region in inland Asia since the Miocene.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction

Prediction of Hevea progeny performance in the presence of genotype-environment interaction

Twenty two open-pollinated Hevea progenies from different parental clones of the Asian origin were tested at five sites in the Northwestern São Paulo State Brazil to investigate the progeny girth growth, rubber yield, bark thickness and plant height. Except for the rubber yield, the analysis of variance indicated highly significant (p<0.01) genotype x environment interaction and heterogeneity of regressions among the progenies. However, the regression stability analysis identified only a few interacting progenies which had regression coefficients significantly different from the expected value of one. The linear regressions of the progeny mean performance at each test on an environmental index (mean of all the progenies in each test) showed the general stability and adaptability of most selected Hevea progenies over the test environments. The few progenies which were responsive and high yielding on different test sites could be used to maximize the rubber cultivars productivity and to obtain the best use of the genetically improved stock under different environmental conditions.

The center of the incisive papilla for the selection of complete denture maxillary anterior teeth in 4 racial groups

Objectives: To evaluate the use of the center of the incisive papilla as a guide for the selection of the proper width of maxillary dentures in 4 racial groups. Method and Materials: One hundred sixty stone casts were obtained from impressions of the maxillary arch of white, black, mixed, and Asian subjects. The occlusal surfaces of the casts were photocopied and the images placed on a digitizer. The most anterior and posterior points of the papilla and cusp tips of the canines were digitized. Dentofacial Planner Plus software was used to calculate the distance from a line passing through the cusp tips of the canines to the center of the papilla, defined as the midpoint of the anterior and posterior points of the papilla. The selection error (in millimeters) due to the clinical application of the method of the incisive papilla was calculated and analyzed. Results: In all studied racial groups, there was no coincidence between the center of the incisive papilla and the canine line. The utilization of the center of the papilla would lead to the selection of wider artificial teeth. In 24.9% of the white, 19.3% of the mixed, 32.9% of the black, and 15.5% of the Asian populations, errors greater than 4 mm would be present with the utilization of the papilla. Conclusion: The method of the center of the incisive papilla is not accurate, but may aid in initial artificial teeth selection for the racial groups studied. (Quintessence Int 2008;39:841-845)

Nasal width as a guide for the selection of maxillary complete denture anterior teeth in four racial groups

Purpose: Selecting artificial teeth for edentulous patients is difficult when pre-extraction records are not available. Various guidelines have been suggested for determining the width of the maxillary anterior denture teeth. This study was undertaken to evaluate the use of the nasal width as a guide for the selection of proper width maxillary anterior denture teeth in four racial groups of the Brazilian population. Materials and Methods: One hundred and sixty subjects (40 Whites, 40 Mulattos, 40 Blacks, and 40 Asians) were selected. Using a sliding caliper, the nasal width and the intercanine distance were measured. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the above measurements. A prediction was made of the percentage of subjects of the White, Mulatto, Black, and Asian populations in which the selection error due to the clinical application of the method of the nasal width would be within 0 to 2 mm, within 2 to 4 mm, and greater than 4 mm. Results: The four racial groups showed a weak correlation between the intercanine distance and the nasal width. In 39.7% of the White, 55.7% of the Mulatto, 81.9% of the Black, and 48.2% of the Asian populations, errors greater than 4 mm would be present with the use of the nasal width. Conclusions: The correlation found between the intercanine distance and the nasal width was not high enough to be used as a predictive factor. The relationship between natural tooth width and artificial tooth width as predicted by the nasal width showed that the nasal width method is not accurate for all the studied groups. Copyright © 2006 by The American College of Prosthodontists.

Autoimmunity does not contribute to the highly prevalent glucose metabolism disturbances in a Japanese Brazilian population

The Japanese Brazilian population has one of the highest prevalences of diabetes worldwide. Despite being non-obese according to standard definitions, their body fat distribution is typically central. We investigated whether a subset of these subjects had autoantibodies that would suggest a slowly progressive form of type 1 diabetes. A total of 721 Japanese Brazilians (386 men) in the 30- to 60-year age group underwent clinical examination and laboratory procedures, including a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and determinations of serum autoantibodies. Antibodies to glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADab) were determined by radioimmunoassay and to thyroglobulin (TGab) and thyroperoxidase (TPOab) by flow-cytometry assays. Mean body mass index was 25.2 ± 3.8 kg/m2, but waist circumference was elevated according to the Asian standards. Diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, and impaired fasting glycemia were found in 31%, 22%, and 22%, respectively, and 53% of the subjects had metabolic syndrome. Glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADab) was positive in 4.72%, TGab in 9.6%, and TPOab in 10% of the whole sample. When participants were stratified according to the presence of thyroid antibodies, similar frequencies of GADab were found in positive and negative groups. The prevalence rates of glucose metabolism disturbances did not differ between GADab positive and negative groups. Our data did not support the view that autoimmune injury could contribute to the high prevalence of diabetes seen in Japanese Brazilians, and the presence of co-morbidities included in the spectrum of metabolic syndrome favors the classification as type 2 diabetes.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2006: 2007 trends

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2009-2010: A crisis generated in the centre and a recovery driven by the emerging economies

Incluye Bibliografía

The Latin American Pacific Basin initiative and the Asia-Pacific region

Includes bibliography

Opportunities for trade and investment between Latin America and Asia-Pacific: the link with APEC

Includes bibliography

Trade in services in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of recent trends

Includes bibliography