The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals- The case of MRI

We study the determinants of MRI use across Portuguese NHS hospitals for patients belonging to specific DRGs. Using data on individual hospital admissions, we estimate a probit model including individual-, hospital-, time- and region-specific variables in order to explain the probability of a patient being sent for MRI. Results convey a tightening effect on the hospital’s budget constraint in the end of each year. Hospitals seem to account for regional characteristics when defining adoption patterns. Individual-specific variables are good predictors of MRI use. Measures taken by the Government only impact the short run. Finally, the gains from an MRI scan, as far as the probability of death is concerned, occur mainly for less severe patients.

Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany

Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.

Plastic-damage smeared crack model to simulate the behaviour of structures made by cement based materials

This work proposes a constitutive model to simulate nonlinear behaviour of cement based materials subjected to different loading paths. The model incorporates a multidirectional fixed smeared crack approach to simulate crack initiation and propagation, whereas the inelastic behaviour of material between cracks is treated by a numerical strategy that combines plasticity and damage theories. For capturing more realistically the shear stress transfer between the crack surfaces, a softening diagram is assumed for modelling the crack shear stress versus crack shear strain. The plastic damage model is based on the yield function, flow rule and evolution law for hardening variable, and includes an explicit isotropic damage law to simulate the stiffness degradation and the softening behaviour of cement based materials in compression. This model was implemented into the FEMIX computer program, and experimental tests at material scale were simulated to appraise the predictive performance of this constitutive model. The applicability of the model for simulating the behaviour of reinforced concrete shear wall panels submitted to biaxial loading conditions, and RC beams failing in shear is investigated.

An integrated system for human action recognition from video using hidden Markov model

In this paper, we present an integrated system for real-time automatic detection of human actions from video. The proposed approach uses the boundary of humans as the main feature for recognizing actions. Background subtraction is performed using Gaussian mixture model. Then, features are extracted from silhouettes and Vector Quantization is used to map features into symbols (bag of words approach). Finally, actions are detected using the Hidden Markov Model. The proposed system was validated using a newly collected real- world dataset. The obtained results show that the system is capable of achieving robust human detection, in both indoor and outdoor environments. Moreover, promising classification results were achieved when detecting two basic human actions: walking and sitting.

Conformal symmetry of the critical 3D Ising model inside a sphere

We perform Monte-Carlo simulations of the three-dimensional Ising model at the critical temperature and zero magnetic field. We simulate the system in a ball with free boundary conditions on the two dimensional spherical boundary. Our results for one and two point functions in this geometry are consistent with the predictions from the conjectured conformal symmetry of the critical Ising model.

Tapping the wealth of microbial data in high-throughput metabolic model reconstruction

Genome-scale metabolic models are valuable tools in the metabolic engineering process, based on the ability of these models to integrate diverse sources of data to produce global predictions of organism behavior. At the most basic level, these models require only a genome sequence to construct, and once built, they may be used to predict essential genes, culture conditions, pathway utilization, and the modifications required to enhance a desired organism behavior. In this chapter, we address two key challenges associated with the reconstruction of metabolic models: (a) leveraging existing knowledge of microbiology, biochemistry, and available omics data to produce the best possible model; and (b) applying available tools and data to automate the reconstruction process. We consider these challenges as we progress through the model reconstruction process, beginning with genome assembly, and culminating in the integration of constraints to capture the impact of transcriptional regulation. We divide the reconstruction process into ten distinct steps: (1) genome assembly from sequenced reads; (2) automated structural and functional annotation; (3) phylogenetic tree-based curation of genome annotations; (4) assembly and standardization of biochemistry database; (5) genome-scale metabolic reconstruction; (6) generation of core metabolic model; (7) generation of biomass composition reaction; (8) completion of draft metabolic model; (9) curation of metabolic model; and (10) integration of regulatory constraints. Each of these ten steps is documented in detail.

A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"

A nutrient balance model for typical Irish farming systems

The twin objectives of the work described were to construct nutrient balance models (NBM) for a range of Irish animal production systems and to evaluate their potential as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes. The NBM has three components. The first is the intake of nutrients in the animal's diet. The second is retention or the nutrients the animal retains for the production of milk, meat or eggs. The third is the balance or the difference between the nutrient intake and retention. Data on the intake levels and their nutrient value for dairy cows, beef cattle, pigs and poultry systems were assembled. Literature searches and interviews with National experts were the primary sources of information. NBMs were then constructed for each production system. Summary tables of the nutrient values for the common diet constituents used in Irish animal production systems, the nutrient composition of the animal products and the NBMs (nutrient intake, retention and excretion) for a range of production systems were assembled. These represent the first comprehensive data set of this type for Irish animal production systems. There was generally good agreement between the derived NBMs values and those published in the literature. The NBMs were validated on a number of farms. Data on animal numbers, fertiliser use, concentrates inputs and production output were recorded on seven farms. Using the data a nutrient input/output balance was constructed for each farm. This was compared with the NBM estimate of the farm nutrient balance. The results showed good agreement between the measured balance and the NBM estimate particularly for the pig and poultry farms. However, the validation emphasised the inherent risks associated with NBMs. The average values used for feed intake and production parameters in the NEMs may result in the under or over estimate of actual nutrient balances on individual farms where these variables are substantially different. On the grassland farms there was a poor correlation between the input/output estimate and the NBM. This possibly results from the omission of the soil's contribution to the nutrient balance. However, the results indicate that the NBMs developed are a potentially useful tool for estimating nutrient balances. They also will serve to highlight the significant fraction of the nutrient inputs into farming systems that are retained on the farm. The potential of the NBM as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes was evaluated on two farms. Feed intake and composition, animal production, slurry production was monitored during the indoor winter feeding period. Slurry samples were taken for analysis. The appropriates NBMs were used to estimate the nutrient balance for each farm. The nutrient content of the slurry produced was calculated. There was a good agreement between the NBM estimate and the measured values. This preliminary evaluation suggests that the NBM has a potential to provide the farmer with a simple means of estimating the nutrient value of his slurry.

A Model of Video Traffic Transmission in IP Networks

Telecommunications and network technology is now the driving force that ensures continued progress of world civilization. Design of new and expansion of existing network infrastructures requires improving the quality of service(QoS). Modeling probabilistic and time characteristics of telecommunication systems is an integral part of modern algorithms of administration of quality of service. At present, for the assessment of quality parameters except simulation models analytical models in the form of systems and queuing networks are widely used. Because of the limited mathematical tools of models of these classes the corresponding parameter estimation of parameters of quality of service are inadequate by definition. Especially concerning the models of telecommunication systems with packet transmission of multimedia real-time traffic.

Labour market frictions, social policies, and barriers to technology adoption

Barriers to technological changes have recently been shown to be a key element in explaining differences in output per worker across countries. This study examines the role that labour market features and institutions have in explaining barriers to technology adoption. I build a model that includes labour market frictions, capital market imperfections and heterogeneity in workers' skills. I found that the unemployment rate together with the welfare losses that workers experiment after displacement are key factors in explaining the existence of barriers to technology adoption. Moreover, I found that none of these factors alone is sufficient to build these barriers. The theory also suggests that welfare policies like the unemployment insurance system may enhance these kinds of barriers while policies like a severance payment system financed by an income tax seem to be more effective in eliminating them.

A General model of bilateral migration agreements

Unilateral migration policies impose externalities on other countries. In order to try to internalize these externalities, countries sign bilateral migration agreements. One element of these agreements is the emphasis on enforcing migration policies: immigrant-receiving countries agree to allow more immigrants from their emigrant-sending partner if they cooperate in enforcing their migration policy at the border. I present a simple theoretical model that justifies this behavior in a two-country setting with welfare maximizing governments. These governments establish migration quotas that need to be enforced at a cost. I prove that uncoordinated migration policies are inefficient. Both countries can improve welfare by exchanging a more "generous" migration quota for expenditure on enforcement policy. Contrary to what could be expected, this result does not depend on the enforcement technology that both countries employ.

Determination of displacement, stress- and strain-distribution in the human heart: a FE-model on the basis of MR imaging.

The determination of characteristic cardiac parameters, such as displacement, stress and strain distribution are essential for an understanding of the mechanics of the heart. The calculation of these parameters has been limited until recently by the use of idealised mathematical representations of biventricular geometries and by applying simple material laws. On the basis of 20 short axis heart slices and in consideration of linear and nonlinear material behaviour we have developed a FE model with about 100,000 degrees of freedom. Marching Cubes and Phong's incremental shading technique were used to visualise the three dimensional geometry. In a quasistatic FE analysis continuous distribution of regional stress and strain corresponding to the endsystolic state were calculated. Substantial regional variation of the Von Mises stress and the total strain energy were observed at all levels of the heart model. The results of both the linear elastic model and the model with a nonlinear material description (Mooney-Rivlin) were compared. While the stress distribution and peak stress values were found to be comparable, the displacement vectors obtained with the nonlinear model were generally higher in comparison with the linear elastic case indicating the need to include nonlinear effects.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss

We introduce duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to (current, lagged or expected future) inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.

Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.