Temporal trends in the characteristics of children at antiretroviral therapy initiation in southern Africa: the IeDEA-SA Collaboration

BACKGROUND Since 2005, increasing numbers of children have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and, in recent years, WHO and country treatment guidelines have recommended ART initiation for all infants and very young children, and at higher CD4 thresholds for older children. We examined temporal changes in patient and regimen characteristics at ART start using data from 12 cohorts in 4 countries participating in the IeDEA-SA collaboration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data from 30,300 ART-naïve children aged <16 years at ART initiation who started therapy between 2005 and 2010 were analysed. We examined changes in median values for continuous variables using the Cuzick's test for trend over time. We also examined changes in the proportions of patients with particular disease severity characteristics (expressed as a binary variable e.g. WHO Stage III/IV vs I/II) using logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of children starting ART each year increased and median age declined from 63 months (2006) to 56 months (2010). Both the proportion of children <1 year and ≥10 years of age increased from 12 to 19% and 18 to 22% respectively. Children had less severe disease at ART initiation in later years with significant declines in the percentage with severe immunosuppression (81 to 63%), WHO Stage III/IV disease (75 to 62%), severe anemia (12 to 7%) and weight-for-age z-score<-3 (31 to 28%). Similar results were seen when restricting to infants with significant declines in the proportion with severe immunodeficiency (98 to 82%) and Stage III/IV disease (81 to 63%). First-line regimen use followed country guidelines. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Between 2005 and 2010 increasing numbers of children have initiated ART with a decline in disease severity at start of therapy. However, even in 2010, a substantial number of infants and children started ART with advanced disease. These results highlight the importance of efforts to improve access to HIV diagnostic testing and ART in children.

Gender-related mortality trends among diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: insights from a nationwide registry 1997-2010

BACKGROUND Data on temporal trends in outcomes, gender differences, and adherence to evidence-based therapy (EBT) of diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are sparse. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data on 3565 diabetic (2412 males and 1153 females) STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 1997 and 2010 and compared in-hospital outcomes and adherence to EBT with the nondiabetic population (n=15,531). RESULTS In-hospital mortality dramatically decreased in diabetic patients, from 19.9% in 1997 to 9.0% in 2010 (p trend<0.001) with an age-adjusted decrease of 6% per year of admission. Similar trends were observed for age-adjusted reinfarction (OR 0.86, p<0.001), cardiogenic shock (OR 0.88, p<0.001), as well as death, reinfarction, or stroke (OR 0.92, p<0.001). However, the mortality benefit over time was observed in diabetic males (p trend=0.006) but not females (p trend=0.082). In addition, mortality remained twice as high in diabetic patients compared with nondiabetic ones (12.1 vs. 6.1%, p<0.001) and diabetes was identified as independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.23, p=0.022). Within the diabetic cohort, females had higher mortality than males (16.1 vs. 10.2%, p<0.001) and female gender independently predicted in-hospital mortality (OR 1.45, p=0.015). Adherence to EBT significantly improved over time in diabetic patients (p trend<0.001) but remained inferior - especially in women - to the one of nondiabetic individuals. CONCLUSIONS In-hospital mortality and morbidity of diabetic STEMI patients in Switzerland improved dramatically over time but, compared with nondiabetic counterparts, gaps in outcomes as well as EBT use persisted, especially in women.

Time-variable gravity signal in Greenland revealed by high-low satellite-to-satellite tracking

[1] In the event of a termination of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission before the launch of GRACE Follow-On (due for launch in 2017), high-low satellite-to-satellite tracking (hl-SST) will be the only dedicated observing system with global coverage available to measure the time-variable gravity field (TVG) on a monthly or even shorter time scale. Until recently, hl-SST TVG observations were of poor quality and hardly improved the performance of Satellite Laser Ranging observations. To date, they have been of only very limited usefulness to geophysical or environmental investigations. In this paper, we apply a thorough reprocessing strategy and a dedicated Kalman filter to Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) data to demonstrate that it is possible to derive the very long-wavelength TVG features down to spatial scales of approximately 2000 km at the annual frequency and for multi-year trends. The results are validated against GRACE data and surface height changes from long-term GPS ground stations in Greenland. We find that the quality of the CHAMP solutions is sufficient to derive long-term trends and annual amplitudes of mass change over Greenland. We conclude that hl-SST is a viable source of information for TVG and can serve to some extent to bridge a possible gap between the end-of-life of GRACE and the availability of GRACE Follow-On.

The implicit achievement motive and general life stress affect time spent on competitive matches in racquet sports

The match time spent on court in racquet sports can be perceived as dependent on the effort an athlete is willing to exert in a competition. Achievement motivation is defined as the effort a person spends on a difficult task with the completion of which she wants to meet a personal standard of excellence, wants to improve herself, or outperform others (McClelland, Atkinson, Clark, & Lowell, 1953). Fifty-two professionals of three racquet sports (tennis, table tennis, and badminton) filled in a questionnaire on their explicit achievement motive, a scale on general life stress, and a measure of the implicit achievement motive. Results indicate that the implicit but not the explicit achievement motive was able to predict the athletes' time spent on court (effort). Additionally the general life stress scale was negatively related to time spent on court. Findings are in line with theoretical assumptions that actual behavior is linked to the implicit achievement motive and that higher levels of general life stress lead to impaired performance in sports.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

Obesity Trends and Body Mass Index Changes After Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND The factors that contribute to increasing obesity rates in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons and to body mass index (BMI) increase that typically occurs after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are incompletely characterized. METHODS We describe BMI trends in the entire Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) population and investigate the effects of demographics, HIV-related factors, and ART on BMI change in participants with data available before and 4 years after first starting ART. RESULTS In the SHCS, overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 13% in 1990 (n = 1641) to 38% in 2012 (n = 8150). In the participants starting ART (n = 1601), mean BMI increase was 0.92 kg/m(2) per year (95% confidence interval, .83-1.0) during year 0-1 and 0.31 kg/m(2) per year (0.29-0.34) during years 1-4. In multivariable analyses, annualized BMI change during year 0-1 was associated with older age (0.15 [0.06-0.24] kg/m(2)) and CD4 nadir <199 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P < .001). Annualized BMI change during years 1-4 was associated with CD4 nadir <100 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P = .001) and black compared to white ethnicity (0.28 [0.16-0.37] kg/m(2)). Individual ART combinations differed little in their contribution to BMI change. CONCLUSIONS Increasing obesity rates in the SHCS over time occurred at the same time as aging of the SHCS population, demographic changes, earlier ART start, and increasingly widespread ART coverage. Body mass index increase after ART start was typically biphasic, the BMI increase in year 0-1 being as large as the increase in years 1-4 combined. The effect of ART regimen on BMI change was limited.

Current trends in cannulation and neuroprotection during surgery of the aortic arch in Europe†‡

OBJECTIVES To conduct a survey across European cardiac centres to evaluate the methods used for cerebral protection during aortic surgery involving the aortic arch. METHODS All European centres were contacted and surgeons were requested to fill out a short, comprehensive questionnaire on an internet-based platform. One-third of more than 400 contacted centres completed the survey correctly. RESULTS The most preferred site for arterial cannulation is the subclavian-axillary, both in acute and chronic presentation. The femoral artery is still frequently used in the acute condition, while the ascending aorta is a frequent second choice in the case of chronic presentation. Bilateral antegrade brain perfusion is chosen by the majority of centres (2/3 of cases), while retrograde perfusion or circulatory arrest is very seldom used and almost exclusively in acute clinical presentation. The same pumping system of the cardio pulmonary bypass is most of the time used for selective cerebral perfusion, and the perfusate temperature is usually maintained between 22 and 26°C. One-third of the centres use lower temperatures. Perfusate flow and pressure are fairly consistent among centres in the range of 10-15 ml/kg and 60 mmHg, respectively. In 60% of cases, barbiturates are added for cerebral protection, while visceral perfusion still receives little attention. Regarding cerebral monitoring, there is a general tendency to use near-infrared spectroscopy associated with bilateral radial pressure measurement. CONCLUSIONS These data represent a snapshot of the strategies used for cerebral protection during major aortic surgery in current practice, and may serve as a reference for standardization and refinement of different approaches.

Time variable Earth’s gravity field from SLR satellites

The time variable Earth’s gravity field contains information about the mass transport within the system Earth, i.e., the relationship between mass variations in the atmosphere, oceans, land hydrology, and ice sheets. For many years, satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations to geodetic satellites have provided valuable information of the low-degree coefficients of the Earth’s gravity field. Today, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission is the major source of information for the time variable field of a high spatial resolution. We recover the low-degree coefficients of the time variable Earth’s gravity field using SLR observations up to nine geodetic satellites: LAGEOS-1, LAGEOS-2, Starlette, Stella, AJISAI, LARES, Larets, BLITS, and Beacon-C. We estimate monthly gravity field coefficients up to degree and order 10/10 for the time span 2003–2013 and we compare the results with the GRACE-derived gravity field coefficients. We show that not only degree-2 gravity field coefficients can be well determined from SLR, but also other coefficients up to degree 10 using the combination of short 1-day arcs for low orbiting satellites and 10-day arcs for LAGEOS-1/2. In this way, LAGEOS-1/2 allow recovering zonal terms, which are associated with long-term satellite orbit perturbations, whereas the tesseral and sectorial terms benefit most from low orbiting satellites, whose orbit modeling deficiencies are minimized due to short 1-day arcs. The amplitudes of the annual signal in the low-degree gravity field coefficients derived from SLR agree with GRACE K-band results at a level of 77 %. This implies that SLR has a great potential to fill the gap between the current GRACE and the future GRACE Follow-On mission for recovering of the seasonal variations and secular trends of the longest wavelengths in gravity field, which are associated with the large-scale mass transport in the system Earth.

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.

Trends in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

BACKGROUND Impact of contemporary treatment of pre-invasive breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) on long-term outcomes remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate national treatment trends for DCIS and to determine their impact on disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS). METHODS The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry was queried for patients diagnosed with DCIS from 1991 to 2010. Treatment pattern trends were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage trend test. Survival analyses were performed using inverse probability weights (IPW)-adjusted competing risk analyses for DSS and Cox proportional hazard regression for OS. All tests performed were two-sided. RESULTS One hundred twenty-one thousand and eighty DCIS patients were identified. The greatest proportion of patients was treated with lumpectomy and radiation therapy (43.0%), followed by lumpectomy alone (26.5%) and unilateral (23.8%) or bilateral mastectomy (4.5%) with significant shifts over time. The rate of sentinel lymph node biopsy increased from 9.7% to 67.1% for mastectomy and from 1.4% to 17.8% for lumpectomy. Compared with mastectomy, OS was higher for lumpectomy with radiation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76 to 0.83, P < .001) and lower for lumpectomy alone (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.23, P < .001). IPW-adjusted ten-year DSS was highest in lumpectomy with XRT (98.9%), followed by mastectomy (98.5%), and lumpectomy alone (98.4%). CONCLUSIONS We identified substantial shifts in treatment patterns for DCIS from 1991 to 2010. When outcomes between locoregional treatment options were compared, we observed greater differences in OS than DSS, likely reflecting both a prevailing patient selection bias as well as clinically negligible differences in breast cancer outcomes between groups.

Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

A picture of trends in Aujeszky's disease virus exposure in wild boar in the Swiss and European contexts.

BACKGROUND In parallel to the increase of wild boar abundance in the past decades, an increase of exposure to the Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) has been reported in wild boar in several parts of Europe. Since high animal densities have been proposed to be one of the major factors influencing ADV seroprevalence in wild boar populations and wild boar abundance has increased in Switzerland, too, a re-evaluation of the ADV status was required in wild boar in Switzerland. We tested wild boar sera collected from 2008-2013 with a commercial ELISA for antibodies against ADV. To set our data in the European context, we reviewed scientific publications on ADV serosurveys in Europe for two time periods (1995-2007 and 2008-2014). RESULTS Seven out of 1,228 wild boar sera were positive for antibodies against ADV, resulting in an estimated seroprevalence of 0.57% (95% confidence interval CI: 0.32-0.96%). This is significantly lower than the prevalence of a previous survey in 2004-2005. The literature review revealed that high to very high ADV seroprevalences are reported from Mediterranean and Central-eastern countries. By contrast, an "island" of low to medium seroprevalences is observed in the centre of Europe with few isolated foci of high seroprevalences. We were unable to identify a general temporal trend of ADV seroprevalence at European scale. CONCLUSIONS The seroprevalence of ADV in wild boar in Switzerland belongs among the lowest documented in Europe. Considering the disparity of seroprevalences in wild boar in Europe, the fact that seroprevalences in Switzerland and other countries have decreased despite increasing wild boar densities and the knowledge that stress leads to the reactivation of latent ADV with subsequent excretion and transmission, we hypothesize that not only animal density but a range of factors leading to stress - such as management - might play a crucial role in the dynamics of ADV infections.

Trends in life expectancy of HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy across the globe: comparisons with general population.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Improved virological and immunological outcomes and reduced toxicity of antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) raise the hope that life expectancy of HIV-positive persons on ART will approach that of the general population. We systematically review the literature and summarize published estimates of life expectancy of HIV-positive populations on ART. We compare their life expectancy with the life expectancy of the general or, in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV-negative populations, by time period and gender. RECENT FINDINGS Ten relevant studies were published from 2006 to 2015. Three studies were from Canada, two from European countries, three from sub-Saharan Africa and two were multicountry studies. Life expectancy increased over time in all studies and regions. Expressed as the percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population, estimated life expectancy at age 20 years in HIV-positive people on ART ranged from 60.3% (95% CI 58.0-62.6%) in Rwanda (2008-2011) to 89.1% (95% CI 84.7-93.6%) in Canada (2008-2012). The percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population achieved was higher in HIV-positive women than in HIV-positive men in all countries, except for Canada wherein the opposite was the case. SUMMARY Life expectancy in HIV-positive people on ART has improved worldwide in recent years, but important gaps remain compared with the general and HIV-negative population, and between regions and genders.

The Moderating Role of Electoral Pressure on Congressional Ideological Polarization: A Cross-Sectional Time-Series Analysis

Reelection and self-interest are recurring themes in the study of our congressional leaders. To date, many studies have already been done on the trends between elections, party affiliation, and voting behavior in Congress. However, because a plethora of data has been collected on both elections and congressional voting, the ability to draw a connection between the two provides a very reasonable prospect. This project analyzes whether voting shifts in congressional elections have an effect on congressional voting. Will a congressman become ideologically more polarized when his electoral margins increase? Essentially, this paper assumes that all congressmen are ideologically polarized, and it is elections which serve to reel congressmen back toward the ideological middle. The election and ideological data for this study, which spans from the 56th to the 107th Congress, finds statistically significant relationships between these two variables. In fact, congressman pay attention to election returns when voting in Congress. When broken down by party, Democrats are more exhibitive of this phenomenon, which suggest that Democrats may be more likely to intrinsically follow the popular model of representation. Meanwhile, it can be hypothesized that insignificant results for Republicans indicate that Republicans may follow a trustee model of representation.