Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain : application and evaluation of a risk management framework

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain.

Applications on fault tree analysis in railway power supply systems

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is presented to model the reliability of a railway traction power system in this paper. First, the construction of fault tree is introduced to integrate components in traction power systems into a fault tree; then the binary decision diagram (BDD) method is used to evaluate fault trees qualitatively and quantitatively. The components contributing to the reliability of overall system are identified with their relative importance through sensitivity analysis. Finally, an AC traction power system is evaluated by the proposed methods.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Stability boundary analysis of the dynamic voltage restorer in weak systems with dynamic loads

In this contribution, a stability analysis for a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) connected to a weak ac system containing a dynamic load is presented using continuation techniques and bifurcation theory. The system dynamics are explored through the continuation of periodic solutions of the associated dynamic equations. The switching process in the DVR converter is taken into account to trace the stability regions through a suitable mathematical representation of the DVR converter. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers, are computed. Besides, the DVR converter model employed in this contribution avoids the necessity of developing very complicated iterative map approaches as in the conventional bifurcation analysis of converters. The continuation method and the DVR model can take into account dynamics and nonlinear loads and any network topology since the analysis is carried out directly from the state space equations. The bifurcation approach is shown to be both computationally efficient and robust, since it eliminates the need for numerically critical and long-lasting transient simulations.

Analysis of productive performance of crop and animal production systems : an integrated analytical framework

This article presents a two-stage analytical framework that integrates ecological crop (animal) growth and economic frontier production models to analyse the productive efficiency of crop (animal) production systems. The ecological crop (animal) growth model estimates "potential" output levels given the genetic characteristics of crops (animals) and the physical conditions of locations where the crops (animals) are grown (reared). The economic frontier production model estimates "best practice" production levels, taking into account economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. In the first stage, both ecological crop growth and economic frontier production models are estimated to calculate three measures of productive efficiency: (1) technical efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "best practice" output levels; (2) agronomic efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "potential" output levels; and (3) agro-economic efficiency, as the ratio of "best practice" to "potential" output levels. Also in the first stage, the economic frontier production model identifies factors that determine technical efficiency. In the second stage, agro-economic efficiency is analysed econometrically in relation to economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. The proposed framework has several important advantages in comparison with existing proposals. Firstly, it allows the systematic incorporation of all physical, economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity in analysing the productive performance of crop and animal production systems. Secondly, the location-specific physical factors are not modelled symmetrically as other economic inputs of production. Thirdly, climate change and technological advancements in crop and animal sciences can be modelled in a "forward-looking" manner. Fourthly, knowledge in agronomy and data from experimental studies can be utilised for socio-economic policy analysis. The proposed framework can be easily applied in empirical studies due to the current availability of ecological crop (animal) growth models, farm or secondary data, and econometric software packages. The article highlights several directions of empirical studies that researchers may pursue in the future.

Participatory analysis of mobile diaries to inform the design of ridesharing systems

In many “user centred design” methods, participants are used as informants to provide data but they are not involved in further analysis of that data. This paper investigates a participatory analysis approach in order to identify the strengths and weaknesses of involving participants collaboratively in the requirements analysis process. Findings show that participants are able to use information that they themselves have provided to analyse requirements and to draw upon that analysis for design, producing insights and suggestions that might not have been available otherwise to the design team. The contribution of this paper is to demonstrate an example of a participatory analysis process.

A comparison of two commercially available motion capture systems for gait analysis : high end vs low-cost

In 1999 Richards compared the accuracy of commercially available motion capture systems commonly used in biomechanics. Richards identified that in static tests the optical motion capture systems generally produced RMS errors of less than 1.0 mm. During dynamic tests, the RMS error increased to up to 4.2 mm in some systems. In the last 12 years motion capture systems have continued to evolve and now include high-resolution CCD or CMOS image sensors, wireless communication, and high full frame sampling frequencies. In addition to hardware advances, there have also been a number of advances in software, which includes improved calibration and tracking algorithms, real time data streaming, and the introduction of the c3d standard. These advances have allowed the system manufactures to maintain a high retail price in the name of advancement. In areas such as gait analysis and ergonomics many of the advanced features such as high resolution image sensors and high sampling frequencies are not required due to the nature of the task often investigated. Recently Natural Point introduced low cost cameras, which on face value appear to be suitable as at very least a high quality teaching tool in biomechanics and possibly even a research tool when coupled with the correct calibration and tracking software. The aim of the study was therefore to compare both the linear accuracy and quality of angular kinematics from a typical high end motion capture system and a low cost system during a simple task.

When individual child psychotherapy exacerbates family systems problems in child abuse cases : a clinical analysis

Children who have suffered physical or sexual abuse are as vulnerable as adult trauma victims to experience "secondary trauma", in which the reactions of the family or broader system exacerbate the child's difficulties. Three clinical cases (a 7 yr old male, an 8 yr old male, and a 7 yr old female) are presented that suggest that this secondary trauma can be made worse by either excessive or insufficient provision of individual child psychotherapy, and the way the system interprets and reacts to these clinical decisions. Types of secondary trauma and their interactions with clinical decisions are discussed. Ways of framing clinical decisions to minimize the potential secondary trauma are presented.

Soil carbon sequestration and associated economic costs for farming systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain : a meta-analysis

Soil organic carbon sequestration rates over 20 years based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to determine the potential for soil C sequestration in wheat-based production systems on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The C sequestration potential of rice–wheat systems of India on conversion to no-tillage is estimated to be 44.1 Mt C over 20 years. Implementing no-tillage practices in maize–wheat and cotton–wheat production systems would yield an additional 6.6 Mt C. This offset is equivalent to 9.6% of India's annual greenhouse gas emissions (519 Mt C) from all sectors (excluding land use change and forestry), or less than one percent per annum. The economic analysis was summarized as carbon supply curves expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 year for a price per tonne of carbon sequestered ranging from zero to USD 200. At a carbon price of USD 25 Mg C−1, 3 Mt C (7% of the soil C sequestration potential) could be sequestered over 20 years through the implementation of no-till cropping practices in rice–wheat systems of the Indian States of the IGP, increasing to 7.3 Mt C (17% of the soil C sequestration potential) at USD 50 Mg C−1. Maximum levels of sequestration could be attained with carbon prices approaching USD 200 Mg C−1 for the States of Bihar and Punjab. At this carbon price, a total of 34.7 Mt C (79% of the estimated C sequestration potential) could be sequestered over 20 years across the rice–wheat region of India, with Uttar Pradesh contributing 13.9 Mt C.

Analysis of productive performance of crop production systems: an integrated analytical framework

Recent literature has argued that environmental efficiency (EE), which is built on the materials balance (MB) principle, is more suitable than other EE measures in situations where the law of mass conversation regulates production processes. In addition, the MB-based EE method is particularly useful in analysing possible trade-offs between cost and environmental performance. Identifying determinants of MB-based EE can provide useful information to decision makers but there are very few empirical investigations into this issue. This article proposes the use of data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis techniques to analyse variation in MB-based EE. Specifically, the article develops a stochastic nutrient frontier and nutrient inefficiency model to analyse determinants of MB-based EE. The empirical study applies both techniques to investigate MB-based EE of 96 rice farms in South Korea. The size of land, fertiliser consumption intensity, cost allocative efficiency, and the share of owned land out of total land are found to be correlated with MB-based EE. The results confirm the presence of a trade-off between MB-based EE and cost allocative efficiency and this finding, favouring policy interventions to help farms simultaneously achieve cost efficiency and MP-based EE.

Non-intrusive continuous user behaviour analysis using computerized systems

There are different ways to authenticate humans, which is an essential prerequisite for access control. The authentication process can be subdivided into three categories that rely on something someone i) knows (e.g. password), and/or ii) has (e.g. smart card), and/or iii) is (biometric features). Besides classical attacks on password solutions and the risk that identity-related objects can be stolen, traditional biometric solutions have their own disadvantages such as the requirement of expensive devices, risk of stolen bio-templates etc. Moreover, existing approaches provide the authentication process usually performed only once initially. Non-intrusive and continuous monitoring of user activities emerges as promising solution in hardening authentication process: iii-2) how so. behaves. In recent years various keystroke dynamic behavior-based approaches were published that are able to authenticate humans based on their typing behavior. The majority focuses on so-called static text approaches, where users are requested to type a previously defined text. Relatively few techniques are based on free text approaches that allow a transparent monitoring of user activities and provide continuous verification. Unfortunately only few solutions are deployable in application environments under realistic conditions. Unsolved problems are for instance scalability problems, high response times and error rates. The aim of this work is the development of behavioral-based verification solutions. Our main requirement is to deploy these solutions under realistic conditions within existing environments in order to enable a transparent and free text based continuous verification of active users with low error rates and response times.

Archival analysis of enterprise resource planning systems : the current state and future directions

Research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems is becoming a well-established research theme in Information Systems (IS) research. Enterprise Resource Planning Systems, given its unique differentiations with other IS applications, have provided an interesting backdrop to test and re-test some of the key and fundamental concepts in IS. While some researchers have tested well-established concepts of technology acceptance, system usage and system success in the context of ERP Systems, others have researched how new paradigms like cloud computing and social media integrate with ERP Systems. Moreover, ERP Systems provided the context for cross disciplinary research such as knowledge management, project management and business process management research. Almost after two-decades since its inception in IS research, this paper provides a critique of 198 papers published on ERP Systems since 2006-2012. We observe patterns on ES research, provide comparisons to past studies and provide future research directions.

V: Rewriting and reclaiming history : an analysis of the emergence of restorative justice in western criminal justice systems

During the last three decades, restorative justice has emerged in numerous localities around the world as an accepted approach to responding to crime. This article, which stems from a doctoral study on the history of restorative justice, provides a critical analysis of accepted histories of restorative practices. It revisits the celebrated historical texts of the restorative justice movement, and re-evaluates their contribution to the emergence of restorative justice measures. It traces the emergence of the term 'restorative justice', and reveals that it emerged in much earlier writings than is commonly thought to be the case by scholars in the restorative justice field. It also briefly considers some 'power struggles' in relation to producing an accepted version of the history of restorative justice, and scholars' attempts to 'rewrite history' to align with current views on restorative justice. Finally, this article argues that some histories of restorative justice selectively and inaccurately portray key figures from the history of criminology as restorative justice supporters. This, it is argued, gives restorative justice a false lineage and operates to legitimise the widespread adoption of restorative justice around the globe.