Impacto ambiental de modificações ecológicas realizadas em uma área subtropical

No período de 1994 a 2000, durante a construção e enchimento da represa Yacyretá, foram estudadas em Ituzaingó e Posadas variáveis infecciosas (diarréias e infecções respiratórias), clínico-cirúrgicas (doenças cardiovasculares e politraumatismos) e ambientais (pluviais, temperatura e umidade). As diarréias, em Ituzaingó, tiveram um aumento 6,5%, 78,3% e 13%, respectivamente em 1995, 1996 e 1997 e nos anos seguintes os valores foram similares aos de 1994 e em Posadas mostraram uma tendência ascendente. As infecções respiratórias, em Ituzaingó em 1995, aumentaram 143% e nos períodos subseqüentes voltaram aos limites de 1994 e, em Posadas tiveram valores ascendentes. No Hospital de Ituzaingó, em 1995, as doenças incrementaram 97,6%, mostraram decréscimo em 1996 e atingiram 127% em 2000; os politraumatismos aumentaram 107% em 1995, declinaram 38% em 1996 nos anos seguintes apresentaram tendência ascendente atingindo 33% em 2000. O impacto das variáveis ambientais foi maior em Ituzaingó do que em Posadas. O aumento das doenças relacionou-se com a temperatura máxima, mas não com a umidade.

Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

GEOCHEMISTRY AND GEOCHRONOLOGY OF SURFICIAL ACRE BASIN SEDIMENTS (WESTERN AMAZONIA): KEY INFORMATION FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION.

Geochemical and geochronological analyses of samples of surficial Acre Basin sediments and fossils indicate an extensive fluvial-lacustrine system, occupying this region, desiccated slowly during the last glacial cycle (LGC). This research documents direct evidence for aridity in western Amazonia during the LGC and is important in establishing boundary conditions for LGC climate models as well as in correlating marine and continental (LGC) climate conditions.

Multilevel model of safety climate for furniture industries

BACKGROUND: Furniture companies can analyze their safety status using quantitative measures. However, the data needed are not always available and the number of accidents is under-reported. Safety climate scales may be an alternative. However, there are no validated Portuguese scales that account for the specific attributes of the furniture sector. OBJECTIVE: The current study aims to develop and validate an instrument that uses a multilevel structure to measure the safety climate of the Portuguese furniture industry. METHODS: The Safety Climate in Wood Industries (SCWI) model was developed and applied to the safety climate analysis using three different scales: organizational, group and individual. A multilevel exploratory factor analysis was performed to analyze the factorial structure. The studied companies’ safety conditions were also analyzed. RESULTS: Different factorial structures were found between and within levels. In general, the results show the presence of a group-level safety climate. The scores of safety climates are directly and positively related to companies’ safety conditions; the organizational scale is the one that best reflects the actual safety conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The SCWI instrument allows for the identification of different safety climates in groups that comprise the same furniture company and it seems to reflect those groups’ safety conditions. The study also demonstrates the need for a multilevel analysis of the studied instrument.

Safety climate and its relationship with furniture companies’ safety performance and workers’ risk acceptance

This study aims to analyse the relationship between safety climate and the level of risk acceptance, as well as its relationship with workplace safety performance. The sample includes 14 companies and 403 workers. The safety climate assessment was performed by the application of a Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire and safety performance was assessed with a checklist. Judgements about risk acceptance were measured through questionnaires together with four other variables: trust, risk perception, benefit perception and emotion. Safety climate was found to be correlated with workgroup safety performance, and it also plays an important role in workers’ risk acceptance levels. Risk acceptance tends to be lower when safety climate scores of workgroups are high, and subsequently, their safety performance is better. These findings seem to be relevant, as they provide Occupational, Safety and Health practitioners with a better understanding of workers’ risk acceptance levels and of the differences among workgroups.

Influence of climate on clinical diagnostic dry eye tests: pilot study

Purpose. To analyze dry eye disease (DED) tests and their consistency in similar nonsymptomatic population samples living in two geographic locations with different climates (Continental vs. Atlantic). Methods. This is a pilot study including 14 nonsymptomatic residents from Valladolid (Continental climate, Spain) and 14 sex-matched and similarly aged residents from Braga (Atlantic climate, Portugal); they were assessed during the same season (spring) of two consecutive years. Phenol red thread test, conjunctival hyperemia, fluorescein tear breakup time, corneal and conjunctival staining, and Schirmer test were evaluated on three different consecutive visits. Reliability was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and weighted kappa (J) coefficient for quantitative and ordinal variables, respectively. Results. Fourteen subjects were recruited in each city with a mean (TSD) age of 63.0 (T1.7) and 59.1 (T0.9) years (p = 0.08) in Valladolid and Braga, respectively. Intraclass correlation coefficient and J values of the tests performed were below 0.69 and 0.61, respectively, for both samples, thus showing moderate to poor reliability. Subsequently, comparisons were made between the results corresponding to the middle and higher outdoor relative humidity (RH) visit in each location as there were no differences in mean temperature (p Q 0.75) despite RH values significantly differing (p e 0.005). Significant (p e 0.05) differences were observed between Valladolid and Braga samples on tear breakup time (middle RH visit, 2.76 T 0.60 vs. 5.26 T 0.64 seconds; higher RH visit, 2.61 T 0.32 vs. 5.78 T 0.88 seconds) and corneal (middle RH, 0.64 T 0.17 vs. 0.14 T 0.10; higher RH, 0.60 T 0.22 vs. 0.0 T 0.0) and conjunctival staining (middle RH, 0.61 T 0.17 vs. 0.14 T 0.08; higher RH, 0.57 T 0.15 vs. 0.18 T 0.09). Conclusions. This pilot study provides initial evidence to support that DED test outcomes assessing the ocular surface integrity and tear stability are climate dependent. Future large-sample studies should support these outcomes also in DED patients. This knowledge is fundamental for multicenter clinical trials. Lack of consistency in diagnostic clinical tests for DED was also corroborated. (Optom Vis Sci 2015;92:e284Ye289)

Contribution to Early Holocene vegetation and climate history of Eastern Orinoco Llanos, Venezuela, from a paleoecological record of a Mauritia L.f. swamp

A palynological analysis of an organic paleosol found at 150-125 cm depth in a Mauritia swamp from the Eastern Orinoco Llanos is presented. The 25 cm pollen record summarizes the vegetation history during the Early Holocene, from 10,225 to 7,800 calendar yr BP. The vegetation was characterized by a Poaceae marsh, where Asteraceae, Melastomataceae, Schefflera-type and Phyllanthus were the most abundant shrubs and trees. Pollen-types richness was lower than that recorded today in similar environments, and Mauritia pollen was absent. Results suggest that climate was as humid as present during the beginning of the Holocene, with a decreasing trend in humidity from around 8,000-7,000 yr BP, in coincidence with the beginning of the "Early-Mid-Holocene Dryness" that affected deeply the Amazon Basin and neighboring areas. Dry climatic conditions could have existed in the study site until the Mid-Late Holocene when a Mauritia swamp developed, and humid conditions similar to present established. Main climate phases inferred in our study site fit well with regional trends recorded in other places located north Amazon Basin. However, conclusions are still limited by the lack of additional Quaternary records in the Orinoco Llanos area, avoiding regional correlations.

Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market

We provide a comparative analysis of how short-run variations in carbon and energy prices relate to each other in the emerging greenhouse gas market in California (Western Climate Initiative [WCI], and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme [EU ETS]). We characterize the relationship between carbon, gas, coal, electricity and gasoline prices and an indicator for economic activity, and present a first analysis of carbon prices in the WCI. We also provide a comparative analysis of the structures of the two markets. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the impulse--response functions. Our main findings show a positive impact from a carbon shock toward electricity, in both markets, but larger in the WCI electricity price, indicating more efficiency. We propose that the widening of carbon market sectors, namely fuels transport and electricity imports, may contribute to this result. To conclude, the research shows significant and coherent relations between variables in WCI, which demonstrate some degree of success for a first year in operation. Reversely, the EU ETS should complete its intended market reform, to allow for more impact of the carbon price. Finally, in both markets, there is no evidence of carbon pricing depleting economic activity.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

The efficient use of water in the context of climate change

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed

Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985–2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985–1990, 1991–1996, 1997–2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.