Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

On the tractability of the piecewise-linear approximation for general discrete-choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management (RM) model incorporates customer purchase behavioras customers purchasing products with certain probabilities that are a function of the offeredassortment of products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel network revenuemanagement, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization. The underlyingstochastic dynamic program is intractable and even its certainty-equivalence approximation, inthe form of a linear program called Choice Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP) is difficultto solve in most cases. The separation problem for CDLP is NP-complete for MNL with justtwo segments when their consideration sets overlap; the affine approximation of the dynamicprogram is NP-complete for even a single-segment MNL. This is in contrast to the independentclass(perfect-segmentation) case where even the piecewise-linear approximation has been shownto be tractable. In this paper we investigate the piecewise-linear approximation for network RMunder a general discrete-choice model of demand. We show that the gap between the CDLP andthe piecewise-linear bounds is within a factor of at most 2. We then show that the piecewiselinearapproximation is polynomially-time solvable for a fixed consideration set size, bringing itinto the realm of tractability for small consideration sets; small consideration sets are a reasonablemodeling tradeoff in many practical applications. Our solution relies on showing that forany discrete-choice model the separation problem for the linear program of the piecewise-linearapproximation can be solved exactly by a Lagrangian relaxation. We give modeling extensionsand show by numerical experiments the improvements from using piecewise-linear approximationfunctions.

A new heuristic method for solving spatially constrained forest planning problems based on mitigation of infeasibilities radiating outward from a forced choice

[Abstract]

Forest owners' acceptance of incentive based policy instruments in forest biodiversity conservation : a choice experiment based approach

Abstract

Reply to the letter to the editor "Freedom of choice".

Réponse au commentaire de: Gnädinger M. Freedom of choice. Swiss Med Wkly. 2012 Mar 22;142:0. doi:10.4414/smw.2012.13527. PMID: 22441992.

An analysis of patients' understanding of 'routine' preoperative blood tests and HIV screening. Is no news really good news?

OBJECTIVES: Many patients may believe that HIV screening is included in routine preoperative work-ups. We examined what proportion of patients undergoing preoperative blood testing believed that they had been tested for HIV. METHODS: All patients hospitalized for elective orthopaedic surgery between January and December 2007 were contacted and asked to participate in a 15-min computer-assisted telephone interview (n = 1330). The primary outcome was to determine which preoperative tests patients believed had been performed from a choice of glucose, clotting, HIV serology and cholesterol, and what percentage of patients interpreted the lack of result communication as a normal or negative test. The proportion of patients agreeable to HIV screening prior to future surgery was also determined. RESULTS: A total of 991 patients (75%) completed the questionnaire. Three hundred and seventy-five of these 991 patients (38%) believed incorrectly that they had been tested for HIV preoperatively. Younger patients were significantly more likely to believe that an HIV test had been performed (mean age 46 vs. 50 years for those who did not believe that an HIV test had been performed; P < 0.0001). Of the patients who believed that a test had been performed but received no result, 96% interpreted lack of a result as a negative HIV test. Over 80% of patients surveyed stated that they would agree to routine HIV screening prior to future surgery. A higher acceptance rate was associated with younger age (mean age 47 years for those who would agree vs. 56 years for those who would not; P < 0.0001) and male sex ( P < 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Many patients believe that a preoperative blood test routinely screens for HIV. The incorrect assumption that a lack of result communication indicates a negative test may contribute to delays in HIV diagnoses.

Indications à la coronarographie en urgence. Partie I: syndromes coronariens aigus avec élévation du segment ST [Indications for urgent coronary angiography. Part I: ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes]

The indications for urgent coronary angiography are stated in the guidelines for treatment of acute coronary syndromes. An invasive approach is considered the treatment of choice for patients presenting with ST elevation myocardial infarction within 12 hours of the beginning of symptoms. In the absence of contraindication, intravenous thrombolysis continues to be a valuable alternative to primary angioplasty within 3 hours of the beginning of clinical symptoms. Urgent coronary angiography continues to be recommended following the failure of thrombolysis, persistent myocardial ischemia after 12 hours of symptoms, recurrent myocardial ischemia following myocardial infarction or in the case of cardiogenic shock.