Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Estimating the Impact on Efficiency of the Adoption of a Voluntary Environmental Standard: An Empirical Study of the Global Copper Mining Industry

This paper uses data on the world's copper mining industry to measure the impact on efficiency of the adoption of the ISO 14001 environmental standard. Anecdotal and case study literature suggests that firms are motivated to adopt this standard so as to achieve greater efficiency through changes in operating procedures and processes. Using plant level panel data from 1992-2007 on most of the world's industrial copper mines, the study uses stochastic frontier methods to investigate the effects of ISO adoption. The variety of models used in this study find that adoption either tends to improve efficiency or has no impact on efficiency, but no evidence is found that ISO adoption decreases efficiency.

Metallic renal artery MR imaging stent: artifact-free lumen visualization with projection and standard renal MR angiography.

A cardiac-triggered free-breathing three-dimensional (3D) balanced fast field-echo projection renal magnetic resonance (MR) angiographic sequence was investigated for in-stent lumen visualization of a dedicated metallic renal artery stent. Fourteen prototype stents were deployed in the renal arteries of six pigs (in two pigs, three stents were deployed). Projection renal MR angiography was compared with standard contrast material-enhanced 3D breath-hold MR angiography. Artifact-free in-stent lumen visualization was achieved with both projection MR angiography and contrast-enhanced MR angiography. These promising results warrant further studies for visualization of in-stent restenosis.

Predictors of weight change in sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention

L'arrêt de la cigarette est généralement associé à une prise de poids. Celle-ci peut menacer la motivation des fumeurs à s'engager dans un processus d'arrêt du tabac et constitue un motif de rechute. L'ordre de grandeur et la cinétique de la prise de poids liée à une tentative d'arrêt chez les fumeurs pris en charge selon les recommandations cliniques actuelles est peu décrite dans la littérature médicale. Le but de cette étude était de quantifier cette prise de poids, d'en déterminer la cinétique ainsi que les facteurs qui l'influencent, chez des fumeurs sédentaires bénéficiant d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac individualisée, composée de conseils individuels et d'une substitution nicotinique associant plusieurs modes d'administration. Nous avons analysé des données récoltées durant un essai clinique randomisé contrôlé au cours duquel était étudié l'impact d'une activité physique modérée sur les taux d'arrêt du tabac après un an chez des fumeurs sédentaires. Nous avons modélisé l'évolution du poids de l'ensemble des participants au cours du temps, selon la technique statistique des « modèles mixtes longitudinaux ». En séparant les périodes d'abstinence de la cigarette de celles de rechute et de l'utilisation reportée de substituts nicotiniques. Cette approche nous a permis de prendre en compte chaque participant à l'étude, par opposition à un modèle plus simple qui séparerait les sujets abstinents de ceux qui rechutent à n'importe quel moment de la période de suivi. Nous avons également ajusté ces modèles pour l'âge, le sexe, le niveau de dépendance à la nicotine et le niveau de formation des participants. Parmi l'ensemble des participants, nous avons noté une augmentation du poids durant les trois premiers mois de l'intervention, suivie d'une stabilisation. Au total, la prise de poids moyenne s'est élevée à 3.3 kg pour les femmes et 3.9 kg pour les hommes. Durant les périodes d'abstinence, les caractéristiques suivantes étaient associées à la prise de poids : sexe masculin et forte dépendance nicotinique. Un âge supérieur à 43 ans était associé à une prise de poids également durant les périodes de rechute. Nous avons observé une tendance, non statistiquement significative, vers une réduction de la prise des poids avec l'utilisation de substituts nicotiniques. Notre étude apporte de nouvelles données sur l'évolution du poids chez les fumeurs sédentaires qui bénéficient d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac. Ils prennent donc du poids, de manière modérée et limitée aux premiers mois. Parmi eux, les hommes, les individus les plus dépendants à la nicotine et les plus âgés doivent s'attendre à une prise de poids supérieure à la moyenne.

Application of standard and refined heat balance integral methods to one-dimensional Stefan problems

The work in this paper concerns the study of conventional and refined heat balance integral methods for a number of phase change problems. These include standard test problems, both with one and two phase changes, which have exact solutions to enable us to test the accuracy of the approximate solutions. We also consider situations where no analytical solution is available and compare these to numerical solutions. It is popular to use a quadratic profile as an approximation of the temperature, but we show that a cubic profile, seldom considered in the literature, is far more accurate in most circumstances. In addition, the refined integral method can give greater improvement still and we develop a variation on this method which turns out to be optimal in some cases. We assess which integral method is better for various problems, showing that it is largely dependent on the specified boundary conditions.

Genetic and Antigenic Analysis of Adenovirus Type 3 Strains Showing Intermediate Behavior in Standard Seroneutralization Test

During an epidemiological survey of acute respiratory infection in Rio de Janeiro, among 208 adenovirus isolates, we found two strains that we were not able, by a standard neutralization procedure, to distinguish between type 3 or 7. However, DNA restriction pattern for the two strains with different enzymes were analyzed and showed a typical Ad3h profile. Using a cross-neutralization test in which both Ad3p and Ad7p antisera were used in different concentration against 100 TCID50 of each adenovirus standard and both isolates, we were able to confirm that the two isolates belong to serotype 3. An hemagglutination inhibition test also corroborated the identification of both strains as adenovirus type 3. Comparing Ad3h and Ad3p genome, we observed 16 different restriction enzyme sites, three of which were located in genomic regions encoding polypeptides involved in neutralization sites

Individual versus standard quality of life assessment in a phase II clinical trial in mesothelioma patients: feasibility and responsiveness to clinical changes.

BACKGROUND: In patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma undergoing a multimodality therapy, treatment toxicity may outweigh the benefit of progression-free survival. The subjective experience across different treatment phases is an important clinical outcome. This study compares a standard with an individual quality of life (QoL) measure used in a multi-center phase II trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-one patients with stage I-III technically operable pleural mesothelioma were treated with preoperative chemotherapy, followed by pleuropneumonectomy and subsequent radiotherapy. QoL was assessed at baseline, at day 1 of cycle 3, and 1, 3 and 6 months post-surgery by using the Rotterdam Symptom Checklist (RSCL) and the Schedule for the Evaluation of Quality of Life-Direct Weighting (SEIQoL-DW), a measure that is based on five individually nominated and weighted QoL-domains. RESULTS: Completion rates were 98% (RSCL) and 92% (SEIQoL) at baseline and 98%/89% at cycle 3, respectively. Of the operated patients (N=45) RSCL and SEIQoL were available from 86%/72%, 93%/74%, and 94%/76% at months 1, 3, and 6 post-surgery. Average assessment time for the SEIQoL was 24min compared to 8min needed for the RSCL. Median changes from baseline indicate that both RSCL QoL overall score and SEIQoL index remained stable during chemotherapy with a clinically significant deterioration (change>or=8 points) 1 month after surgery (median change of -66 and -14 for RSCL and SEIQoL, respectively). RSCL QoL overall scores improved thereafter, but remained beneath baseline level until 6 months after surgery. SEIQoL scores improved to baseline-level at month 3 after surgery, but worsened again at month 6. RSCL QoL overall score and SEIQoL index were moderately correlated at baseline (r=.30; p<or=.05) and at 6-month follow-up (r=.42; p<or=.05) but not at the other time points. CONCLUSION: The SEIQoL assessment seems to be feasible within a phase II clinical trial, but may require more effort from staff. More distinctive QoL changes in accordance with clinical changes were measured with the RSCL. Our findings suggest that the two measures are not interchangeable: the RSCL is to favor when mainly information related to the course of disease- and treatment is of interest.

RTOG 0525: Exploratory Subset Analysis from a Randomized Phase III Trial Comparing Standard (std) Adjuvant Temozolomide (TMZ) with a Dose-dense (dd) Schedule for Glioblastoma (GBM)

Purpose/Objective(s): RTwith TMZ is the standard for GBM. dd TMZ causes prolongedMGMTdepletion in mononuclear cells and possibly in tumor. The RTOG 0525 trial (ASCO 2011) did not show an advantage from dd TMZ for survival or progression free survival. We conducted exploratory, hypothesis-generating subset analyses to detect possible benefit from dd TMZ.Materials/Methods: Patients were randomized to std (150-200 mg/m2 x 5 d) or dd TMZ (75-100 mg/m2 x 21 d) q 4 weeks for 6- 12 cycles. Eligibility included age.18, KPS$ 60, and. 1 cm2 tissue for prospective MGMTanalysis for stratification. Furtheranalyses were performed for all randomized patients (''intent-to-treat'', ITT), and for all patients starting protocol therapy (SPT). Subset analyses were performed by RPA class (III, IV, V), KPS (90-100, = 50,\50), resection (partial, total), gender (female, male), and neurologic dysfunction (nf = none, minor, moderate).Results: No significant difference was seen for median OS (16.6 vs. 14.9 months), or PFS (5.5 vs. 6.7 months, p = 0.06). MGMT methylation was linked to improved OS (21.2 vs. 14 months, p\0.0001), and PFS (8.7 vs. 5.7 months, p\0.0001). For the ITT (n = 833), there was no OS benefit from dd TMZ in any subset. Two subsets showed a PFS benefit for dd TMZ: RPA class III (6.2 vs. 12.6 months, HR 0.69, p = 0.03) and nf = minor (HR 0.77, p = 0.01). For RPA III, dd dramatically delayed progression, but post-progression dd patients died more quickly than std. A similar pattern for nf = minor was observed. For the SPT group (n = 714) there was neither PFS nor OS benefit for dd TMZ, overall. For RPA class III and nf = minor, there was a PFS benefit for dd TMZ (HR 0.73, p = 0.08; HR 0.77, p = 0.02). For nf = moderate subset, both ITT and SPT, the std arm showed superior OS (14.4 vs. 10.9 months) compared to dd, without improved PFS (HR 1.46, p = 0.03; and HR 1.74, p = 0.01. In terms of methylation status within this subset, there were more methylated patients in the std arm of the ITT subset (n = 159; 32 vs. 24%). For the SPT subset (n = 124), methylation status was similar between arms.Conclusions: This study did not demonstrate improved OS for dd TMZ for any subgroup, but for 2 highly functional subgroups, PFS was significantly increased. These data generate the testable hypothesis that intensive treatment may selectively improve disease control in those most likely able to tolerate dd therapy. Interpretation of this should be considered carefully due to small sample size, the process of multiple observations, and other confounders.Acknowledgment: This project was supported by RTOG grant U10 CA21661, and CCOP grant U10 CA37422 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Volumetric quantification of atherosclerotic plaque in CT considering partial volume effect.

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is quantified based on a computed tomography (CT) scan image. A calcified region is identified. Modified expectation maximization (MEM) of a statistical model for the calcified and background material is used to estimate the partial calcium content of the voxels. The algorithm limits the region over which MEM is performed. By using MEM, the statistical properties of the model are iteratively updated based on the calculated resultant calcium distribution from the previous iteration. The estimated statistical properties are used to generate a map of the partial calcium content in the calcified region. The volume of calcium in the calcified region is determined based on the map. The experimental results on a cardiac phantom, scanned 90 times using 15 different protocols, demonstrate that the proposed method is less sensitive to partial volume effect and noise, with average error of 9.5% (standard deviation (SD) of 5-7mm(3)) compared with 67% (SD of 3-20mm(3)) for conventional techniques. The high reproducibility of the proposed method for 35 patients, scanned twice using the same protocol at a minimum interval of 10 min, shows that the method provides 2-3 times lower interscan variation than conventional techniques.

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

COMMIT: Convex Optimization Modeling for Microstructure Informed Tractography.

Tractography is a class of algorithms aiming at in vivo mapping the major neuronal pathways in the white matter from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. These techniques offer a powerful tool to noninvasively investigate at the macroscopic scale the architecture of the neuronal connections of the brain. However, unfortunately, the reconstructions recovered with existing tractography algorithms are not really quantitative even though diffusion MRI is a quantitative modality by nature. As a matter of fact, several techniques have been proposed in recent years to estimate, at the voxel level, intrinsic microstructural features of the tissue, such as axonal density and diameter, by using multicompartment models. In this paper, we present a novel framework to reestablish the link between tractography and tissue microstructure. Starting from an input set of candidate fiber-tracts, which are estimated from the data using standard fiber-tracking techniques, we model the diffusion MRI signal in each voxel of the image as a linear combination of the restricted and hindered contributions generated in every location of the brain by these candidate tracts. Then, we seek for the global weight of each of them, i.e., the effective contribution or volume, such that they globally fit the measured signal at best. We demonstrate that these weights can be easily recovered by solving a global convex optimization problem and using efficient algorithms. The effectiveness of our approach has been evaluated both on a realistic phantom with known ground-truth and in vivo brain data. Results clearly demonstrate the benefits of the proposed formulation, opening new perspectives for a more quantitative and biologically plausible assessment of the structural connectivity of the brain.

Standard of Healthy Living on the Island of Ireland

Pre-requisites for health are equity, minimum income, nutrition, peace, water, sanitation, housing, education, work, political will and public support (WHO, 1986). It has long been known that social disadvantage harms health (Black, 1980, Ettner, 1996). Many researchers have documented that those in lower socio-economic groups are more at risk of developing major chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases (Beaglehole and Yach, 2003, WHO, 2003a), diabetes (Wilder et al., 2005), and some cancers (Brunner et al., 1993, Strong et al., 2005), and are at a higher risk of having multiple risk factors associated with these diseases (Lynch et al., 1997). The living standards that many people enjoy and the behavioural choices they make are heavily determined by their access to resources such as income, wealth, goods and services (O’Flynn and Murphy, 2001). The most prominent explanation between disadvantage and health is that lack of resources restricts access to the fundamental conditions of health such as adequate housing (Macintyre et al., 2003, Macintyre et al., 2005), good nutrition (Nelson et al., 2002) and opportunities to participate in society (McDonough et al., 2005). Each of these issues are very much influenced by material and structural factors inherent to and determined by fiscal, social and health policy (Graham and Kelly, 2004, Milio, 1986).