Stable isotopes, Mg/Ca-ratios, and biogenic opal of five sediment cores from the subarctic northwest Pacific

Based on models and proxy data it has been proposed that salinity-driven stratification weakened in the subarctic North Pacific during the last deglaciation, which potentially contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. We present high-resolution subsurface temperature (TMg/Ca) and subsurface salinity-approximating (d18Oivc-sw) records across the last 20,000 years from the subarctic North Pacific and its marginal seas, derived from combined stable oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of the planktonic foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.). Our results indicate regionally differing changes of subsurface conditions. During the Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas cold phases our sites were subject to reduced thermal stratification, brine rejection due to sea-ice formation, and increased advection of low-salinity water from the Alaskan Stream. In contrast, the Bølling-Allerød warm phase was characterized by strengthened thermal stratification, stronger sea-ice melting, and influence of surface waters that were less diluted by the Alaskan Stream. From direct comparison with alkenone-based sea surface temperature estimates (SSTUk'37), we suggest deglacial thermocline changes that were closely related to changes in seasonal contrasts and stratification of the mixed layer. The modern upper-ocean conditions seem to have developed only since the early Holocene.

Age determination and stable isotope records of sediment core M78/1_235-1

Paleoenvironmental studies and climate models demonstrate that fluvial runoff and moisture availability in the Caribbean hinterland react very sensitively to climatic variations. Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate records document pronounced dry and wet periods over tropical South America mainly caused by shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, forcing mechanisms for changes in the ITCZ position remain controversial. Here we present high-resolution foraminiferal Ba/Ca and d18Oseawater records from a core located within the Orinoco River outflow documenting abrupt hydrological changes in the Orinoco catchment area during the deglacial and Holocene. Our data, obtained from the surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (pink), show an abrupt increase in Ba/Ca ratios in the early Holocene, starting ~600 yr after the end of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval at ca. 10.8 ka and suggesting a massive reorganization of moisture sources in northern South America. In contrast, the salinity dependent d18Oseawater from the same samples shows a gradual decrease starting at the end of the YD. The offset of our Ba/Ca peak excludes meltwater release in conjunction with the northern Andean glacier retreat well before the end of the YD as a forcing mechanism. We suggest that the Ba/Ca record documents an abrupt increase in Ba-rich waters of a northern Andean source caused by the insolation-driven shift of the ITCZ and/or enhanced monsoon activity.

Stable isotope record of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi from Pleistocene sediments of DSDP Site 86-502 in the Caribbean Sea

Variations in the stable isotopic composition of benthic foraminifera from Deep-Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) site 502B in the Caribbean Sea are used to reconstruct Atlantic intermediate water circulation variability over the last 1.2 m.y. Comparison of this record with other North Atlantic benthic isotope records indicates that Atlantic intermediate water circulation was relatively enhanced during glacial maxima when North Atlantic deep water (NADW) production was reduced. However, a simple, compensatory relationship between intermediate and deepwater circulation is not apparent. Geochemical models have shown that such changes in ocean circulation can affect atmospheric CO2 levels by changing vertical nutrient and alkalinity profiles. The Delta delta13C difference between Caribbean site 502B and deep equatorial Pacific site 677 is highly coherent and in phase with ice volume. Like the delta18O record, there is an increase in amplitude (40%) and a large increase in 100 kyr power after 0.7 Ma. The 1.2? Delta delta13C amplitude scales to 70 ppm V in atmospheric CO2 using Boyle's (1986) box model result. The implied increase in CO2 amplitude after 0.7 Ma may suggest a positive feedback role in effecting the higher-amplitude climatic fluctuations which characterize the last 0.7 m.y.

Sea surface temperature and stable isotopes from 9 cores of the Northeastern Atlantic

Temporal and spatial patterns in eastern North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SST) were reconstructed for marine isotope stage (MIS) 11c using a submeridional transect of five sediment cores. The SST reconstructions are based on planktic foraminiferal abundances and alkenone indices, and are supported by benthic and planktic stable isotope measurements, as well as by ice-rafted debris content in polar and middle latitudes. Additionally, the larger-scale dynamics of the precipitation regime over northern Africa and the western Mediterranean region was evaluated from iron concentrations in marine sediments off NW Africa and planktic d13C in combination with analysis of planktic foraminiferal abundances down to the species level in the Mediterranean Sea. Compared to the modern situation, it is revealed that during entire MIS 11c sensu stricto (ss), i.e., between 420 and 398 ka according to our age models, a cold SST anomaly in the Nordic seas co-existed with a warm SST anomaly in the middle latitudes and the subtropics, resulting in steeper meridional SST gradients than during the Holocene. Such a SST pattern correlates well with a prevalence of a negative mode of the modern North Atlantic Oscillation. We suggest that our scenario might partly explain the longer duration of wet conditions in the northern Africa during MIS 11c compared to the Holocene.

Stable isotopes and XRF data over the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum from IODP Sites U1403 and U1409

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 56 million years ago, thousands of petagrams of carbon were released into the atmosphere and ocean in just a few thousand years, followed by a gradual sequestration over approximately 200,000 years. If silicate weathering is one of the key negative feedbacks that removed this carbon, a period of seawater calcium carbonate saturation greater than pre-event levels is expected during the event's recovery phase. In marine sediments, this should be recorded as a temporary deepening of the depth below which no calcite is preserved - the calcite compensation depth (CCD). Previous and new sedimentary records from sites that were above the pre-PETM calcite compensation depth show enhanced carbonate accumulation following the PETM. A new record from an abyssal site in the North Atlantic that lay below the pre-PETM calcite compensation depth shows a period of carbonate preservation beginning about 70,000 years after the onset of the PETM, providing the first direct evidence for an over-deepening of the calcite compensation depth. This record confirms an overshoot in ocean carbonate saturation during the PETM recovery. Simulations with two earth system models support scenarios for the PETM that involve both a large initial carbon release followed by prolonged low-level emissions, consistent with the timing of CCD deepening in our record. Our findings indicate that sequestration of these carbon emissions was most likely the result of both globally enhanced calcite burial above the calcite compensation depth and, at least in the North Atlantic, by a temporary over-deepening of the calcite compensation depth.

Stable oxygen isotope record of planktonic foraminifera from late Quaternary sediments of the equatorial Pacific

Planktonic foraminiferal test fragmentation in three cores along a depth transect from the western equatorial Pacific (ERDC-93P, 1619 m; RC17-177, 2600 m; V28-238, 3120 m [Thompson, 1976]) were examined for the last 500 kyr at sample intervals from 2.5 to 5 kyr to study the fluctuations of dissolution in the western equatorial Pacific. The age models were constructed by correlating the delta18O records with the SPECMAP stack [Imbrie et al., 1984]. Results showed that intermediate and deep waters experienced the same patterns of dissolution through climatic cycles. Fragmentation varied with a greater amplitude, and the carbonate ion concentration changed less, in the deep than in the intermediate water. Dissolution has significant variance distributions and coherencies with delta18O over the 100, 41, and 23 kyr periods of orbital variations; dissolution maxima lag ice volume minima by 6 to 20 kyr. The dissolution variability was consistent with recent geochemical models which seek to explain the reduction of atmospheric CO2 concentration at the last glacial maximum [Broecker, 1982; Boyle, 1988].

Age model and stable isotopes of sediment cores from north-central Chile and south-central Chile

Terrigenous sediment supply, marine transport, and depositional processes along tectonically active margins are key to decoding turbidite successions as potential archives of climatic and seismic forcings. Sequence stratigraphic models predict coarse-grained sediment delivery to deep-marine sites mainly during sea-level fall and lowstand. Marine siliciclastic deposition during transgressions and highstands has been attributed to sustained connectivity between terrigenous sources and marine sinks facilitated by narrow shelves. To decipher the controls on Holocene highstand turbidite deposition, we analyzed 12 sediment cores from spatially discrete, coeval turbidite systems along the Chile margin (29° - 40°S) with changing climatic and geomorphic characteristics but uniform changes in sea level. Sediment cores from intraslope basins in north-central Chile (29° - 33°S) offshore a narrow to absent shelf record a shut-off of turbidite deposition during the Holocene due to postglacial aridification. In contrast, core sites in south-central Chile (36° - 40°S) offshore a wide shelf record frequent turbidite deposition during highstand conditions. Two core sites are linked to the Biobío river-canyon system and receive sediment directly from the river mouth. However, intraslope basins are not connected via canyons to fluvial systems but yield even higher turbidite frequencies. High sediment supply combined with a wide shelf and an undercurrent moving sediment toward the shelf edge appear to control Holocene turbidite sedimentation and distribution. Shelf undercurrents may play an important role in lateral sediment transport and supply to the deep sea and need to be accounted for in sediment-mass balances.

Forecasting with serially correlated regression models

In this article we investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of predictors of regression models with autocorrelated errors. We prove new theorems associated with the predictive efficiency of generalized least squares (GLS) and incorrectly structured GLS predictors. We also establish the form associated with their predictive mean squared errors as well as the magnitude of these errors relative to each other and to those generated from the ordinary least squares (OLS) predictor. A large simulation study is used to evaluate the finite-sample performance of forecasts generated from models using different corrections for the serial correlation.

Borrowing from models of motor control to translate cognitive processes: Evidence for hypokinetic-hyperkinetic linguistic homologues?

In relation to motor control, the basal ganglia have been implicated in both the scaling and focusing of movement. Hypokinetic and hyperkinetic movement disorders manifest as a consequence of overshooting and undershooting GPi (globus pallidus internus) activity thresholds, respectively. Recently, models of motor control have been borrowed to translate cognitive processes relating to the overshooting and undershooting of GPi activity, including attention and executive function. Linguistic correlates, however, are yet to be extrapolated in sufficient detail. The aims of the present investigation were to: (1) characterise cognitive-linguistic processes within hypokinetic and hyperkinetic neural systems, as defined by motor disturbances; (2) investigate the impact of surgically-induced GPi lesions upon language abilities. Two Parkinsonian cases with opposing motor symptoms (akinetic versus dystonic/dyskinetic) served as experimental subjects in this research. Assessments were conducted both prior to as well as 3 and 12 months following bilateral posteroventral pallidotomy (PVP). Reliable changes in performance (i.e. both improvements and decrements) were typically restricted to tasks demanding complex linguistic operations across subjects. Hyperkinetic motor symptoms were associated with an initial overall improvement in complex language function as a consequence of bilateral PVP, which diminished over time, suggesting a decrescendo effect relative to surgical beneficence. In contrast, hypokinetic symptoms were associated with a more stable longitudinal linguistic profile, albeit defined by higher proportions of reliable decline versus improvement in postoperative assessment scores. The above findings endorsed the integration of the GPi within cognitive mechanisms involved in the arbitration of complex language functions. In relation to models of motor control, 'focusing' was postulated to represent the neural processes underpinning lexical-semantic manipulation, and 'scaling' the potential allocation of cognitive resources during the mediation of high-level linguistic tasks. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of exercise echocardiography vs. SPECT imaging for the evaluation of stable chest pain

Aims Technological advances in cardiac imaging have led to dramatic increases in test utilization and consumption of a growing proportion of cardiovascular healthcare costs. The opportunity costs of strategies favouring exercise echocardiography or SPECT imaging have been incompletely evaluated. Methods and results We examined prognosis and cost-effectiveness of exercise echocardiography (n=4884) vs. SPECT (n=4637) imaging in stable, intermediate risk, chest pain patients. Ischaemia extent was defined as the number of vascular territories with echocardiographic wall motion or SPECT perfusion abnormalities. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to assess time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction (MI). Total cardiovascular costs were summed (discounted and inflation-corrected) throughout follow-up. A cost-effectiveness ratio = 2% annual event risk), SPECT ischaemia was associated with earlier and greater utilization of coronary revascularization (P < 0.0001) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32 381/LYS. Conclusion Health care policies aimed at allocating limited resources can be effectively guided by applying clinical and economic outcomes evidence. A strategy aimed at cost-effective testing would support using echocardiography in low-risk patients with suspected coronary disease, whereas those higher risk patients benefit from referral to SPECT imaging.

Modelling trickle irrigation: Comparison of analytical and numerical models for estimation of wetting front position with time

Irrigation practices that are profligate in their use of water have come under closer scrutiny by water managers and the public. Trickle irrigation has the propensity to increase water use efficiency but only if the system is designed to meet the soil and plant conditions. Recently we have provided a software tool, WetUp (http://www.clw.csiro.au/products/wetup/), to calculate the wetting patterns from trickle irrigation emitters. WetUp uses an analytical solution to calculate the wetted perimeter for both buried and surface emitters. This analytical solution has a number of assumptions, two of which are that the wetting front is defined by water content at which the hydraulic conductivity (K) is I mm day(-1) and that the flow occurs from a point source. Here we compare the wetting patterns calculated with a 2-dimensional numerical model, HYDRUS2D, for solving the water flow into typical soils with the analytical solution. The results show that the wetting patterns are similar, except when the soil properties result in the assumption of a point source no longer being a good description of the flow regime. Difficulties were also experienced with getting stable solutions with HYDRUS2D for soils with low hydraulic conductivities. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting exchange rates with linear and nonlinear models

In this paper, the exchange rate forecasting performance of neural network models are evaluated against the random walk, autoregressive moving average and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. There are no guidelines available that can be used to choose the parameters of neural network models and therefore, the parameters are chosen according to what the researcher considers to be the best. Such an approach, however,implies that the risk of making bad decisions is extremely high, which could explain why in many studies, neural network models do not consistently perform better than their time series counterparts. In this paper, through extensive experimentation, the level of subjectivity in building neural network models is considerably reduced and therefore giving them a better chance of Forecasting exchange rates with linear and nonlinear models 415 performing well. The results show that in general, neural network models perform better than the traditionally used time series models in forecasting exchange rates.