Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere troposphere

The separate effects of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on forcing circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere are investigated using a version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is coupled to an ocean. Circulation-related diagnostics include zonal wind, tropopause pressure, Hadley cell width, jet location, annular mode index, precipitation, wave drag, and eddy fluxes of momentum and heat. As expected, the tropospheric response to the ODS forcing occurs primarily in austral summer, with past (1960-99) and future (2000-99) trends of opposite sign, while the GHG forcing produces more seasonally uniform trends with the same sign in the past and future. In summer the ODS forcing dominates past trends in all diagnostics, while the two forcings contribute nearly equally but oppositely to future trends. The ODS forcing produces a past surface temperature response consisting of cooling over eastern Antarctica, and is the dominant driver of past summertime surface temperature changes when the model is constrained by observed sea surface temperatures. For all diagnostics, the response to the ODS and GHG forcings is additive: that is, the linear trend computed from the simulations using the combined forcings equals (within statistical uncertainty) the sum of the linear trends from the simulations using the two separate forcings. Space time spectra of eddy fluxes and the spatial distribution of transient wave drag are examined to assess the viability of several recently proposed mechanisms for the observed poleward shift in the tropospheric jet.

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century

The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.

A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process.

Design of delay-tolerant linear dispersion codes

In cooperative communication networks, owing to the nodes' arbitrary geographical locations and individual oscillators, the system is fundamentally asynchronous. This will damage some of the key properties of the space-time codes and can lead to substantial performance degradation. In this paper, we study the design of linear dispersion codes (LDCs) for such asynchronous cooperative communication networks. Firstly, the concept of conventional LDCs is extended to the delay-tolerant version and new design criteria are discussed. Then we propose a new design method to yield delay-tolerant LDCs that reach the optimal Jensen's upper bound on ergodic capacity as well as minimum average pairwise error probability. The proposed design employs stochastic gradient algorithm to approach a local optimum. Moreover, it is improved by using simulated annealing type optimization to increase the likelihood of the global optimum. The proposed method allows for flexible number of nodes, receive antennas, modulated symbols and flexible length of codewords. Simulation results confirm the performance of the newly-proposed delay-tolerant LDCs.

Detection of anthropogenic climate change using a fingerprint method

A fingerprint method for detecting anthropogenic climate change is applied to new simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) forced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols covering the years 1880 to 2050. In addition to the anthropogenic climate change signal, the space-time structure of the natural climate variability for near-surface temperatures is estimated from instrumental data over the last 134 years and two 1000 year simulations with CGCMs. The estimates are compared with paleoclimate data over 570 years. The space-time information on both the signal and the noise is used to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio of a detection variable obtained by applying an optimal filter (fingerprint) to the observed data. The inclusion of aerosols slows the predicted future warming. The probability that the observed increase in near-surface temperatures in recent decades is of natural origin is estimated to be less than 5%. However, this number is dependent on the estimated natural variability level, which is still subject to some uncertainty.

Analysis and compensation of power amplifier nonlinearity in MIMO transmit diversity systems

The nonlinearity of high-power amplifiers (HPAs) has a crucial effect on the performance of multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In this paper, we investigate the performance of MIMO orthogonal space-time block coding (OSTBC) systems in the presence of nonlinear HPAs. Specifically, we propose a constellation-based compensation method for HPA nonlinearity in the case with knowledge of the HPA parameters at the transmitter and receiver, where the constellation and decision regions of the distorted transmitted signal are derived in advance. Furthermore, in the scenario without knowledge of the HPA parameters, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based compensation method for the HPA nonlinearity is proposed, which first estimates the channel-gain matrix by means of the SMC method and then uses the SMC-based algorithm to detect the desired signal. The performance of the MIMO-OSTBC system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), total degradation (TD) and system capacity, in uncorrelated Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical and simulation results are provided and show the effects on performance of several system parameters, such as the parameters of the HPA model, output back-off (OBO) of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), and number of SMC samples. In particular, it is shown that the constellation-based compensation method can efficiently mitigate the effect of HPA nonlinearity with low complexity and that the SMC-based detection scheme is efficient to compensate for HPA nonlinearity in the case without knowledge of the HPA parameters.

Cross-layer design for MIMO systems over spatially correlated and keyhole Nakagami-m fading channels

Cross-layer design is a generic designation for a set of efficient adaptive transmission schemes, across multiple layers of the protocol stack, that are aimed at enhancing the spectral efficiency and increasing the transmission reliability of wireless communication systems. In this paper, one such cross-layer design scheme that combines physical layer adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) with link layer truncated automatic repeat request (T-ARQ) is proposed for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems employing orthogonal space--time block coding (OSTBC). The performance of the proposed cross-layer design is evaluated in terms of achievable average spectral efficiency (ASE), average packet loss rate (PLR) and outage probability, for which analytical expressions are derived, considering transmission over two types of MIMO fading channels, namely, spatially correlated Nakagami-m fading channels and keyhole Nakagami-m fading channels. Furthermore, the effects of the maximum number of ARQ retransmissions, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, Nakagami fading parameter and spatial correlation parameters, are studied and discussed based on numerical results and comparisons. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Joint compensation of multiple RF impairments in MIMO STBC systems

In this paper, we propose a compensation method for the joint effect of high-power amplifier (HPA) nonlinearity, in-phase/quadrature-phase (I/Q) imbalance and crosstalk in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal space-time block coding (OSTBC) systems. The performance of the MIMO OSTBC equipped with the proposed compensation mechanism is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability and system capacity, in Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects on performance of several system parameters, namely, the HPA parameters, image-leakage ratio, crosstalk, numbers of antennas, and phase-shift keying modulation order.

On the effect of power amplifier nonlinearity on MIMO transmit diversity systems

Nonlinearity of high-power amplifier (HPA) plays a crucial role in the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In this paper, we investigate the performance of MIMO orthogonal space-time block coding (STBC) systems in the presence of nonlinear HPA. Specifically, we assess the impact of HPA nonlinearity on the average symbol error probability (SEP), total degradation (TD), and system capacity of orthogonal STBC in uncorrelated Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the output back-off (OBO) of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

An anatomy of the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

In the 1960s and early 1970s sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean cooled rapidly. There is still considerable uncertainty about the causes of this event, although various mechanisms have been proposed. In this observational study it is demonstrated that the cooling proceeded in several distinct stages. Cool anomalies initially appeared in the mid-1960s in the Nordic Seas and Gulf Stream Extension, before spreading to cover most of the Subpolar Gyre. Subsequently, cool anomalies spread into the tropical North Atlantic before retreating, in the late 1970s, back to the Subpolar Gyre. There is strong evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation, linked to a southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ, played an important role in the event, particularly in the period 1972-76. Theories for the cooling event must account for its distinctive space-time evolution. Our analysis suggests that the most likely drivers were: 1) The “Great Salinity Anomaly” of the late 1960s; 2) An earlier warming of the subpolar North Atlantic, which may have led to a slow-down in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; 3) An increase in anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. Determining the relative importance of these factors is a key area for future work.

Modelling capability and affordance as properties of human/machine resource systems

Understanding how and why the capability of one set of business resources, its structural arrangements and mechanisms compared to another works can provide competitive advantage in terms of new business processes and product and service development. However, most business models of capability are descriptive and lack formal modelling language to qualitatively and quantifiably compare capabilities, Gibson’s theory of affordance, the potential for action, provides a formal basis for a more robust and quantitative model, but most formal affordance models are complex and abstract and lack support for real-world applications. We aim to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of business capability, by developing a quantitative and qualitative model that underpins earlier work on Capability-Affordance Modelling – CAM. This paper integrates an affordance based capability model and the formalism of Coloured Petri Nets to develop a simulation model. Using the model, we show how capability depends on the space time path of interacting resources, the mechanism of transition and specific critical affordance factors relating to the values of the variables for resources, people and physical objects. We show how the model can identify the capabilities of resources to enable the capability to inject a drug and anaesthetise a patient.

Design of delay-tolerant space–time codes with limited feedback

In cooperative communication networks, owing to the nodes' arbitrary geographical locations and individual oscillators, the system is fundamentally asynchronous. Such a timing mismatch may cause rank deficiency of the conventional space-time codes and, thus, performance degradation. One efficient way to overcome such an issue is the delay-tolerant space-time codes (DT-STCs). The existing DT-STCs are designed assuming that the transmitter has no knowledge about the channels. In this paper, we show how the performance of DT-STCs can be improved by utilizing some feedback information. A general framework for designing DT-STC with limited feedback is first proposed, allowing for flexible system parameters such as the number of transmit/receive antennas, modulated symbols, and the length of codewords. Then, a new design method is proposed by combining Lloyd's algorithm and the stochastic gradient-descent algorithm to obtain optimal codebook of STCs, particularly for systems with linear minimum-mean-square-error receiver. Finally, simulation results confirm the performance of the newly designed DT-STCs with limited feedback.

Exploring invention capability

Research on invention has focused on business invention and little work has been conducted on the process and capability required for the individual inventor or the capabilities required for an advice to be considered an invention. This paper synthesises the results of an empirical survey of ten inventor case studies with current research on invention and recent capability affordance research to develop an integrated capability process model of human capabilities for invention and specific capabilities of an invented device. We identify eight necessary human effectivities required for individual invention capability and six functional key activities using these effectivities, to deliver the functional capability of invention. We also identified key differences between invention and general problem solving processes. Results suggest that inventive step capability relies on a unique application of principles that relate to a new combination of affordance chain with a new mechanism and or space time (affordance) path representing the novel way the device works, in conjunction with defined critical affordance operating factors that are the subject of the patent claims.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

Experimental identification of chaotic fibers

In a 2D parameter space, by using nine experimental time series of a Clitia`s circuit, we characterized three codimension-1 chaotic fibers parallel to a period-3 window. To show the local preservation of the properties of the chaotic attractors in each fiber, we applied the closed return technique and two distinct topological methods. With the first topological method we calculated the linking, numbers in the sets of unstable periodic orbits, and with the second one we obtained the symbolic planes and the topological entropies by applying symbolic dynamic analysis. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.