Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Real time manufacturing systems simulator

A área da simulação computacional teve um rápido crescimento desde o seu apareciment, sendo actualmente uma das ciências de gestão e de investigação operacional mais utilizadas. O seu princípio baseia-se na replicação da operação de processos ou sistemas ao longo de períodos de tempo, tornando-se assim uma metodologia indispensável para a resolução de variados problemas do mundo real, independentemente da sua complexidade. Das inúmeras áreas de aplicação, nos mais diversos campos, a que mais se destaca é a utilização em sistemas de produção, onde o leque de aplicações disponível é muito vasto. A sua aplicação tem vindo a ser utilizada para solucionar problemas em sistemas de produção, uma vez que permite às empresas ajustar e planear de uma maneira rápida, eficaz e ponderada as suas operações e os seus sistemas, permitindo assim uma rápida adaptação das mesmas às constantes mudanças das necessidades da economia global. As aplicações e packages de simulação têm seguindo as tendências tecnológicas pelo que é notório o recurso a tecnologias orientadas a objectos para o desenvolvimento das mesmas. Este estudo baseou-se, numa primeira fase, na recolha de informação de suporte aos conceitos de modelação e simulação, bem como a respectiva aplicação a sistemas de produção em tempo real. Posteriormente centralizou-se no desenvolvimento de um protótipo de uma aplicação de simulação de ambientes de fabrico em tempo real. O desenvolvimento desta ferramenta teve em vista eventuais fins pedagógicos e uma utilização a nível académico, sendo esta capaz de simular um modelo de um sistema de produção, estando também dotada de animação. Sem deixar de parte a possibilidade de integração de outros módulos ou, até mesmo, em outras plataformas, houve ainda a preocupação acrescida de que a sua implementação recorresse a metodologias de desenvolvimento orientadas a objectos.

Simulation and dynamics of freeway traffic

This paper presents the new package entitled Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS) and a computational oriented analysis of traffic dynamics. The SITS adopts a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions considering different types of vehicles, drivers and roads. A set of experiments with the SITS reveal the dynamic phenomena exhibited by this kind of system. For this purpose a modelling formalism is developed that embeds the statistics and the Laplace transform. The results make possible the adoption of classical system theory tools and point out that it is possible to study traffic systems taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. A complementary perspective for the analysis of the traffic flow is also quantified through the entropy measure.

Development of procedures for the simulation of atmospheric flows over complex terrain, using OpenFOAM

The main purpose of this work was the development of procedures for the simulation of atmospheric ows over complex terrain, using OpenFOAM. For this aim, tools and procedures were developed apart from this code for the preprocessing and data extraction, which were thereafter applied in the simulation of a real case. For the generation of the computational domain, a systematic method able to translate the terrain elevation model to a native OpenFOAM format (blockMeshDict) was developed. The outcome was a structured mesh, in which the user has the ability to de ne the number of control volumes and its dimensions. With this procedure, the di culties of case set up and the high computation computational e ort reported in literature associated to the use of snappyHexMesh, the OpenFOAM resource explored until then for the accomplishment of this task, were considered to be overwhelmed. Developed procedures for the generation of boundary conditions allowed for the automatic creation of idealized inlet vertical pro les, de nition of wall functions boundary conditions and the calculation of internal eld rst guesses for the iterative solution process, having as input experimental data supplied by the user. The applicability of the generated boundary conditions was limited to the simulation of turbulent, steady-state, incompressible and neutrally strati ed atmospheric ows, always recurring to RaNS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) models. For the modelling of terrain roughness, the developed procedure allowed to the user the de nition of idealized conditions, like an uniform aerodynamic roughness length or making its value variable as a function of topography characteristic values, or the using of real site data, and it was complemented by the development of techniques for the visual inspection of generated roughness maps. The absence and the non inclusion of a forest canopy model limited the applicability of this procedure to low aerodynamic roughness lengths. The developed tools and procedures were then applied in the simulation of a neutrally strati ed atmospheric ow over the Askervein hill. In the performed simulations was evaluated the solution sensibility to di erent convection schemes, mesh dimensions, ground roughness and formulations of the k - ε and k - ω models. When compared to experimental data, calculated values showed a good agreement of speed-up in hill top and lee side, with a relative error of less than 10% at a height of 10 m above ground level. Turbulent kinetic energy was considered to be well simulated in the hill windward and hill top, and grossly predicted in the lee side, where a zone of ow separation was also identi ed. Despite the need of more work to evaluate the importance of the downstream recirculation zone in the quality of gathered results, the agreement between the calculated and experimental values and the OpenFOAM sensibility to the tested parameters were considered to be generally in line with the simulations presented in the reviewed bibliographic sources.

Análise estocástica com recurso a ferramentas informáticas no planeamento de empreitadas de construção

O presente trabalho, desenvolvido sob a orientação do Prof. Jaime Gabriel Silva, centra-se na procura e aplicação de metodologias de planeamento com apoio de ferramentas informáticas de análise de risco, que permitem realizar, em tempo útil, o cálculo dos prazos resultantes de inúmeras combinações possíveis associadas à incerteza das durações das atividades, recorrendo a modelos estocásticos. O trabalho aborda inicialmente o contexto da Gestão na Construção, com particular enfase na Gestão do Risco. Nessa fase inicial, fez-se também um pequeno inquérito a profissionais com diferentes níveis de responsabilidade organizacional e empresas do setor. A parte fundamental do trabalho, incide nos procedimentos a adotar na elaboração do planeamento de empreitadas. Nesta parte do trabalho, introduzem-se os conceitos da análise de risco com recurso a uma ferramenta informática de apoio, o @Risk, que permite a utilização do Método de Monte Carlo, para obtenção de resultados num contexto de uma tomada de decisão baseada no risco. Refira-se que houve vários contactos com o fornecedor do programa, que permitiram tirar partido de outro programa da Palisade, Evolver, direcionado para otimização matemática, podendo ser utilizado, por exemplo, na perspetiva da minimização dos custos, o que pode interessar pela relação destes com as opções adotadas na elaboração do planeamento de empreendimentos. Finalmente, toma-se um exemplo real do planeamento de uma empreitada em execução à data da realização deste trabalho, onde se aplicaram os conceitos desenvolvidos no trabalho, confrontando os resultados com o andamento da obra.

Mathematical modeling and simulation of heat flow through pultrusion die assembly system for thermoset composites

Pultrusion is an industrial process used to produce glass fibers reinforced polymers profiles. These materials are worldwide used when performing characteristics, such as great electrical and magnetic insulation, high strength to weight ratio, corrosion and weather resistance, long service life and minimal maintenance are required. In this study, we present the results of the modelling and simulation of heat flow through a pultrusion die by means of Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The numerical simulation was calibrated based on temperature profiles computed from thermographic measurements carried out during pultrusion manufacturing process. Obtained results have shown a maximum deviation of 7%, which is considered to be acceptable for this type of analysis, and is below to the 10% value, previously specified as maximum deviation. © 2011, Advanced Engineering Solutions.

Teaching accounting and management through business simulation:

Everyday accounting and management teachers face the challenge of creating learning environments that motivate students. This chapter describes the Business Simulation (BS) experience that has taken place at the Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Institute of Accounting and Administration (IPP/ISCAP). The chapter presents students’ perceptions about the course and the teaching/learning approach. The results show that pedagogical methods used (competency-oriented), generic competencies (cooperation and group work), and interpersonal skills (organisational and communication skills) are relevant for future accounting professionals. In addition, positive remarks and possible constraints based on observation, staff meetings, and past research are reported. The chapter concludes with some recommendations from the project implementation.

Project, modelling and simulation of air stripping columns for the treatment of groundwater contaminated with volatile organic compounds

Volatile organic compounds are a common source of groundwater contamination that can be easily removed by air stripping in columns with random packing and using a counter-current flow between the phases. This work proposes a new methodology for the column design for any particular type of packing and contaminant avoiding the necessity of a pre-defined diameter used in the classical approach. It also renders unnecessary the employment of the graphical Eckert generalized correlation for pressure drop estimates. The hydraulic features are previously chosen as a project criterion and only afterwards the mass transfer phenomena are incorporated, in opposition to conventional approach. The design procedure was translated into a convenient algorithm using C++ as programming language. A column was built in order to test the models used either in the design or in the simulation of the column performance. The experiments were fulfilled using a solution of chloroform in distilled water. Another model was built to simulate the operational performance of the column, both in steady state and in transient conditions. It consists in a system of two partial non linear differential equations (distributed parameters). Nevertheless, when flows are steady, the system became linear, although there is not an evident solution in analytical terms. In steady state the resulting system of ODE can be solved, allowing for the calculation of the concentration profile in both phases inside the column. In transient state the system of PDE was numerically solved by finite differences, after a previous linearization.

POST-PROCESSING TECHNIQUES SUITABILITY FOR MESOLEVEL FREE BOUNDARY FLOWS

Reliable flow simulation software is inevitable to determine an optimal injection strategy in Liquid Composite Molding processes. Several methodologies can be implemented into standard software in order to reduce CPU time. Post-processing techniques might be one of them. Post-processing a finite element solution is a well-known procedure, which consists in a recalculation of the originally obtained quantities such that the rate of convergence increases without the need for expensive remeshing techniques. Post-processing is especially effective in problems where better accuracy is required for derivatives of nodal variables in regions where Dirichlet essential boundary condition is imposed strongly. In previous works influence of smoothness of non-homogeneous Dirichlet condition, imposed on smooth front was examined. However, usually quite a non-smooth boundary is obtained at each time step of the infiltration process due to discretization. Then direct application of post-processing techniques does not improve final results as expected. The new contribution of this paper lies in improvement of the standard methodology. Improved results clearly show that the recalculated flow front is closer to the ”exact” one, is smoother that the previous one and it improves local disturbances of the “exact” solution.

Simulation of rectifier voltage malfunction on OWECS, four-level converter, HVDC light link: Smart grid context tool

This paper presents a model for the simulation of an offshore wind system having a rectifier input voltage malfunction at one phase. The offshore wind system model comprises a variable-speed wind turbine supported on a floating platform, equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power four-level neutral point clamped converter. The link from the offshore floating platform to the onshore electrical grid is done through a light high voltage direct current submarine cable. The drive train is modeled by a three-mass model. Considerations about the smart grid context are offered for the use of the model in such a context. The rectifier voltage malfunction domino effect is presented as a case study to show capabilities of the model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brownian bridge and other path-dependent Gaussian processes vectorial simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.

Numerical simulation of plasmonic effects in amorphous silicon induced by embedded aluminium nanoparticles

This work reports a theoretical study aimed to identify the plasmonic resonance condition for a system formed by metallic nanoparticles embedded in an a-Si: H matrix. The study is based on a Tauc-Lorentz model for the electrical permittivity of a-Si: H and a Drude model for the metallic nanoparticles. It is calculated the The polarizability of an sphere and ellipsoidal shaped metal nanoparticles with radius of 20 nm. We also performed FDTD simulations of light propagation inside this structure reporting a comparison among the effects caused by a single nanoparticles of Aluminium, Silver and, as a comparison, an ideally perfectly conductor. The simulation results shows that is possible to obtain a plasmonic resonance in the red part of the spectrum (600-700 nm) when 20-30 nm radius Aluminium ellipsoids are embedded into a-Si: H.

Distributed, Agent-Based Intelligent System for Demand Response Program Simulation in Smart Grids

A distributed, agent-based intelligent system models and simulates a smart grid using physical players and computationally simulated agents. The proposed system can assess the impact of demand response programs.

Six sigma methodologies: implementation and impacts on Portuguese small and medium companies (SMES)

Artigo elaborador no âmbito dos trabalhos decorrentes à dissertação de Mestrado do Aluno David Leite, no Mestrado em Gestão Integrada Qualidade, Ambiente e Segurança, ESTGF-IPP, Oreintados pelos Professores Luís Fonseca (ISEP-IPP) e Vanda Lima (ESTGF-IPP).