The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Environmental Studies of Monterey Bay and the Central California Coastal Zone : Progress Report: First Half of 2nd Year of Operation--July 1971-February 1972

PDF contains 94 pages.

O Tratado de Lisboa e os avanços democráticos na União Europeia

Descreve as instituições e os mecanismos que ao longo de mais de seis décadas foram sendo criados e aperfeiçoados com o objetivo de desenvolver a comunidade dos países europeus nos aspectos políticos, sociais e econômicos. A integração europeia foi se aperfeiçoando ao longo do tempo, mas, seus dirigentes, sempre tiveram a preocupação de fazer com que esse processo fosse o mais democrático possível. O Tratado de Lisboa, o mais recente na história desta associação de ideias e interesses, teve a preocupação de aperfeiçoar os mecanismos de integração no sentido da democracia, aspecto explorado neste trabalho.

A photographic record of a pre- and post-lake creation event from World War II at Valley, Isle of Anglesey, UK

The article compares a recent aerial photograph of the lowlands of the Isle of Anglesey area with a German surveillance photograph from 1941. The authors aim to infer the environmental changes made to this sand dune and lake system as a direct consequence of constructing the airfield. Part of Tywyn Trewan, the extensive sand dune system, was completely destroyed in order to create runways and the technical and domestic accommodation to house a strategic airfield. As part of the dredging, six new water bodies with a combined surface area of approximately 6 ha were created.

Humanism after the Spanish Civil War: Gernika (1945-53), a Humanities and Social Sciencesbasque magazine

Espainiako Gerra Zibilaren eta II. Mundu Gerrarren ostean Gerra Hotza heldu zen. Testuinguru larri horretan humanismoan ikusi zuten hainbatek zibilizazio-krisiari irtenbidea topatzeko bidea. Gernika aldizkariak (1945-53) bere burua humanistatzat zeukan. Bertako idazleek gai horren inguruan zer adierazi zuten jasotzen saiatu gara, euskarazko zein erdarazko artikuluetan agertzen diren iritziak sailkatuz.

A field guide for Agency staff operating the SIMRAD EY500 portable scientific echosounder. 2nd draft 3rd August 1999

This manual has been produced by members of the national acoustics group (NAG) and represents the first in a series of outputs designed to promote co-ordination and consistency in Agency hydroacoustic surveys. It is designed as a field guide for Agency staff operating the SIMRAD EY500 portable scientific echosounder. It should be simplistic enough for the newcomer to EY500 to be able to set up and run a mobile hydroacoustic survey with some knowledge of the supporting theory. It should act as guidance for standardisation of survey procedures providing a concise list of settings and recommendations that can be used as a quick reference guide in the field. This manual condenses 5 years of practical experience of surveying fish populations using Simrad hardware and software for surveying large rivers and still waters throughout England and Wales. This document should be used as a companion to the manufacturers instruction manual and not act as a substitute for it.