The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

AGNI: an API for the control of automomous service robots

With the continuum growth of Internet connected devices, the scalability of the protocols used for communication between them is facing a new set of challenges. In robotics these communications protocols are an essential element, and must be able to accomplish with the desired communication. In a context of a multi-­‐‑agent platform, the main types of Internet communication protocols used in robotics, mission planning and task allocation problems will be revised. It will be defined how to represent a message and how to cope with their transport between devices in a distributed environment, reviewing all the layers of the messaging process. A review of the ROS platform is also presented with the intent of integrating the already existing communication protocols with the ServRobot, a mobile autonomous robot, and the DVA, a distributed autonomous surveillance system. This is done with the objective of assigning missions to ServRobot in a security context.

Context classification for service robots

This dissertation presents a solution for environment sensing using sensor fusion techniques and a context/environment classification of the surroundings in a service robot, so it could change his behavior according to the different rea-soning outputs. As an example, if a robot knows he is outdoors, in a field environment, there can be a sandy ground, in which it should slow down. Contrariwise in indoor environments, that situation is statistically unlikely to happen (sandy ground). This simple assumption denotes the importance of context-aware in automated guided vehicles.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

Methodological framework for detection of harmonisation breaking in service environments

As the complexity of markets and the dynamicity of systems evolve, the need for interoperable systems capable of strengthening enterprise communication effectiveness increases. This is particularly significant when it comes to collaborative enterprise networks, like manufacturing supply chains, where several companies work, communicate, and depend on each other, in order to achieve a specific goal. Once interoperability is achieved, that is once all network parties are able to communicate with and understand each other, organisations are able to exchange information along a stable environment that follows agreed laws. However, as markets adapt to new requirements and demands, an evolutionary behaviour is triggered giving space to interoperability problems, thus disrupting the sustainability of interoperability and raising the need to develop monitoring activities capable of detecting and preventing unexpected behaviour. This work seeks to contribute to the development of monitoring techniques for interoperable SOA-based enterprise networks. It focuses on the automatic detection of harmonisation breaking events during real-time communications, and strives to develop and propose a methodological approach to handle these disruptions with minimal or no human intervention, hence providing existing service-based networks with the ability to detect and promptly react to interoperability issues.

Epidemiological, clinical, and operational aspects of leprosy patients assisted at a referral service in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and operational aspects of leprosy carriers. METHODS: A cross-sectional study leprosy patients assisted in São Luis, MA, was performed. RESULTS: Of the 85 cases analyzed, 51.7% were male participants, and 60% were brown. Concerning the age, 54.8% of women were between 35 and 49 years, and 57.6% of men were between 20 and 34 years. Lepromatous leprosy was found in 42.3% of cases, and the multibacillary form was found in 72.9%. The skin smear was positive in 42.3%. The occurrence of reaction was found in 43.5% of cases, and 83.5% had no Bacillus Calmette-Guérin scar. Leprosy in the family was reported by 44.7% of the patients. Most of the individuals (96.4%) lived in houses made of brick with more than three rooms (72.6%) and two persons per room (65.1%). Concerning the level of education, 41.4% of women and 34.1% of men had more than one to three years of education. The most evaluated age group in the beginning of the treatment was that of 35 to 49 years with a Grade 0 incapability (64.5%), and that in the end was the age group of 20 to 34 (29.9%) with Grade 0, 30.7% Grade 1, and 11.5% Grade 2. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of multibacillary forms found in this study and the cases in family members point out delayed diagnoses. Thus, early diagnosis and appropriate treatment are important in decreasing the outcome of disabilities.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Assessing the community needs of mental health residential care service users in Republic of Moldova

RESUMO: Background: Problemas de saúde mental são um grande problema clínico e social na República da Moldávia, representando uma quota significante de deficiência, sendo classificada no top cinco das dez linhas na hierarquia das condições. A taxa de incidência tem sido crescente na República da Moldávia, atingindo cerca de 15.000 por ano (14,655 em 2011), ou seja, 411,4 por 100 mil habitantes, e uma taxa de prevalência de 97.525 pessoas em 2011, ou seja, 2,737.9 por 100 mil habitantes. Sistema de atendimento psiquiátrico fornece serviços de saúde mental escassos a nível da comunidade, visando principalmente terapia hospitalar, centralizada, através de uma rede de três hospitais psiquiátricos, com 1.860 camas e 4 sanatórios psico- neurológicos com 1890 camas, assim alimentando-se a estigmatização do paciente. Objetivos: O objetivo deste estudo foi a avaliação das necessidades individuais dos beneficiários e do seu nível de autonomia dentro de cuidados residenciais, para o planeamento de reformas de saúde mental e desinstitucionalização na República da Moldávia. Este estudo foi encomendado pelo Ministério do Trabalho, Proteção Social e da Família e pelo Ministério da Saúde, com o apoio da Organização Mundial da Saúde, para determinar o cumprimento eficaz do artigo 19 da Convenção da ONU. O estudo tem os seguintes objetivos: Avaliar o nível de autonomia dos residentes nos hospitais psiquiátricos e sanatórios psico-neurológico, usando uma amostra representativa de 10 por ce nto do número total de pacientes/residentes e comparação cruzada; Para avaliar quatro sanatórios psico-neurológicos para adultos e três hospitais psiquiátricos; Para desenvolver recomendações para o planeamento da desinstitucionalização das pessoas com problemas de saúde mental e colocação na comunidade com base nos resultados do estudo. Metodologia e resultados: O estudo fez uso de duas ferramentas globais: questionário para a avaliação individual dos residentes do estabelecimento de saúde mental, e questionário de avaliação institucional. Todos os entrevistados foram divididos em quatro categorias conforme com o grau de dependência e preparação de viver de forma independente na comunidade. Apenas 1,2% dos entrevistados de PNHB eram totalmente dependentes de terceiros ou serviços especializados, tornando-se a categoria 4, que necessitam de cuidados e apoio contínuo. No PH esta categoria de pessoas é ausente. Conclusões: A condição dos entrevistados foi pior em PNBH que em PH. No entanto, ainda, aqueles que estão prontos para ser desinstitucionalizados correspondem com a maior parte dos entrevistados. Todos os hospitais tinham o consentimento do utente para admissão e tratamento, enquanto não houve consentimento qualquer em PNBH. É bastante óbvio que tanto os hospitais como também a sistema de assistência residencial não atingem a sua finalidade, o que significa que a maioria dos utentes pode ser desinstitucionalizados, sem qualquer terapia de suporte.------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Mental health problems are a major clinical and social issue in the Republic of Moldova,accounting for a significant share of disability and ranking in top five of the ten lines in the hierarchy of conditions. The incidence rate has been growing in the Republic of Moldova to reach approximately 15 thousand a year (14,655 in 2011), i.e. 411.4 per 100 thousand population, and a prevalence rate of 97,525 thousand people in 2011, i.e. 2,737.9 per 100 thousand population. Psychiatric care system provides for scanty mental health services at community level, aiming mainly at centralized hospital-based therapy through a network of three psychiatric hospitals tallying up 1,860 beds and 4 psycho-neurological boarding houses with 1,890 beds, thus fuelling up patient stigmatization. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the individual needs of beneficiaries and their level of autonomy within residential care for the planning of mental health system reforms and deinstitutionalization in the Republic of Moldova. This study was commissioned by the Ministry of Labour, Social Protection and Family and by the Ministry of Health, with the World Health Organization support, to provide for effective enforcement of article 19 of the UN CRPD. The study pursued the following goals: To evaluate the level of autonomy of the psychiatric hospital and psycho-neurological boarding house residents by using a representative sample of 10 per cent of the total number of patients / residents and cross-comparison; To evaluate four psycho-neurological boarding houses for adults and three psychiatric hospitals; To develop recommendations for planning the deinstitutionalization of people with mental health problems and community placement based on the study findings.Methodology and results: The study made use of two global tools: questionnaire for individual assessment of mental health facility residents, and institutional assessment questionnaire. All interviewees were divided into four categories by one’s degree of dependence and readiness to live independently in the community. Only 1.2% of respondents from PNHB were fully dependent on a third party or specialized services, making up category 4, requiring continuous care and support. In PH this category of people is absent.Conclusions: The condition of respondents was worse in PNBH than in PH. However, yet, those ready to be deinstitutionalized accounted for most of respondents there. All hospitals had the resident’s consent to admission and treatment, whereas there was no consent in PNBH whatsoever. It is quite obvious that both the hospitals and residential care system do not achieve their intended purpose, meaning that the majority of residents may be deinstitutionalized without any support therapy.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Financial depth, stock markets and economic growth in the EU-15 countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial depth on economic growth in the EU-15 countries from 1970 until 2012, using the two-step System GMM estimator. Even though it might be expected a positive impact, the results show it is negative and sometimes even negative and statistically significant. Among the reasons presented for this, the existence of banking crises seems to better explain these results. In tranquil periods, financial deepening appears to have a positive impact, whereas in banking crises it is persistently negative and statistically significant. Also, after an assessment of the impact of stock markets on economic growth, it appears that more developed countries in the EU-15 have an economy more reliant on this segment of the financial system rather than in bank intermediation.

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Late diagnosis and HIV infection in children attending a service of specialized care for pediatric AIDS in Brazil

Introduction: This study describes the frequency of late diagnosis and HIV among children attending a pediatric AIDS clinic. Methods: Cross-sectional study in children exposed to HIV from 2005-2008. A questionnaire was given that included questions on demographics and clinical information. Results: Two-hundred twenty-one (97.8%) children were exposed to HIV during pregnancy/childbirth. A total of 193 (87.3%) children had late enrolment in the service and late access to HIV serology. The frequency of HIV was 21.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.9%-26.7%). Protective factors were earlier diagnosis [odds ratio (OR)=0.17 (0.08-0.37)] and receiving complete prophylaxis [OR=0.29 (0.09-0.97)]; being born by vaginal delivery was a risk factor [OR=4.45 (1.47-13.47)]. Conclusions: There was a high frequency of late diagnosis in this patient cohort. Earlier diagnosis is an important measure for controlling HIV among children.

Overstock and stock-out in Volkswagen Autoeuropa

The following work is a case study of overstock and stock-out problems at Volkswagen Autoeuropa (VWAE). It introduces the supply chain of Autoeuropa and specializes then on failures connected to inventory problems. Having a successful supply chain is important in a world where products become more and more similar as it can give to companies an edge over their competitors. The case shows three practices that VWAE uses to prevent and to overcome stock problems. Information was gathered by doing interviews with different managers, by analyzing the company’s key processes and by literature research related to the topics of supply chain management and flexibility in the supply chain. Three practices were further investigated: the use of alternative parts, support of the supplier and a rating system of suppliers. In the question section of this work the importance of flexibility and Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) when connected to supply chain management are explained. The described different practices are numerically analyzed and it is concluded that each practice brings both cost savings and the possibility of achieving target numbers to the company, showing the company’s flexibility to react to supply chain disturbances. Because of confidentiality reasons, persons in the case are fictionalized and numbers are wherever possible equalized to 100 in order to display true proportions.

Assessing Cybersecurity service quality in corporate environments

This study assess the quality of Cybersecurity as a service provided by IT department in corporate network and provides analysis about the service quality impact on the user, seen as a consumer of the service, and on the organization as well. In order to evaluate the quality of this service, multi-item instrument “SERVQUAL” was used for measuring consumer perceptions of service quality. To provide insights about Cybersecurity service quality impact, DeLone and McLean information systems success model was used. To test this approach, data was collected from over one hundred users from different industries and partial least square (PLS) was used to estimate the research model. This study found that SERVQUAL is adequate to assess Cybersecurity service quality and also found that Cybersecurity service quality positively influences the Cybersecurity use and individual impact in Cybersecurity.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock