Explaining volatility and serial correlation in opening and closing returns:a study of the FT-30 components

In this paper the performance of opening and closing returns, for the components of the FT-30 will be studied. It will be shown that for these stocks opening returns have higher volatility and a greater tendency towards negative serial correlation than closing returns. Unlike previous studies this contrasting performance cannot solely be attributed to differences in the trading mechanism across the trading day. All the stocks used in our sample trade thought the day using a uniform trading mechanism. In this paper, we suggest that it is differences in the speed that closing and opening returns adjust to new information that causes differences in return performance. By estimating the Amihud and Mendelson (1987) [Amihud, Yakov, & Mendelson, Haim (1987). Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation, Journal of Finance, 62 533-553.] partial adjustment model with noise, we show that opening returns have a tendency towards over-reaction, while closing returns have a tendency towards under-reaction. We suggest that it is these differences that cause a substantial proportion (although not all) of the asymmetric return patterns associated with opening and closing returns. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technological diversification within UK’s small serial innovators

This paper investigates the determinants of technological diversification among UK’s small serial innovators (SSIs). Using a longitudinal study of 339 UK-based small businesses accounting for almost 7000 patents between 1990 and 2006, this study constitutes the first empirical examination of technological diversification among SMEs in the literature. Results demonstrate that technological diversification is not solely a large firm activity, challenging the dominant view that innovative SMEs are extremely focused and specialised players with little technological diversification. Our findings suggest a nonlinear (i.e. inverse-U-shaped) relationship between the level of technological opportunities in the environment and the SSIs’ degree of technological diversification. This points to a trade-off between processes of exploration and exploitation across increasingly volatile technology regimes. The paper also demonstrates that small firms with impactful innovations focus their innovative activity around similar technological capabilities while firms that have introduced platform technologies in the past are more likely to engage in technological diversification.

To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

Reduced attentional capacity, but normal processing speed and shifting of attention in developmental dyslexia: evidence from a serial task

We report the performance of a group of adult dyslexics and matched controls in an array-matching task where two strings of either consonants or symbols are presented side by side and have to be judged to be the same or different. The arrays may differ either in the order or identity of two adjacent characters. This task does not require naming – which has been argued to be the cause of dyslexics’ difficulty in processing visual arrays – but, instead, has a strong serial component as demonstrated by the fact that, in both groups, Reaction times (RTs) increase monotonically with position of a mismatch. The dyslexics are clearly impaired in all conditions and performance in the identity conditions predicts performance across orthographic tasks even after age, performance IQ and phonology are partialled out. Moreover, the shapes of serial position curves are revealing of the underlying impairment. In the dyslexics, RTs increase with position at the same rate as in the controls (lines are parallel) ruling out reduced processing speed or difficulties in shifting attention. Instead, error rates show a catastrophic increase for positions which are either searched later or more subject to interference. These results are consistent with a reduction in the attentional capacity needed in a serial task to bind together identity and positional information. This capacity is best seen as a reduction in the number of spotlights into which attention can be split to process information at different locations rather than as a more generic reduction of resources which would also affect processing the details of single objects.

Serial dark soliton for 100-Gb/s applications

We analyze the performance through numerical simulations of a new modulation format: serial dark soliton (SDS) for wide-area 100-Gb/s applications. We compare the performance of the SDS with conventional dark soliton, amplitude-modulation phase-shift keying (also known as duobinary), nonreturn-to-zero, and return-to-zero modulation formats, when subjected to typical wide-area-network impairments. We show that the SDS has a strong chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode-dispersion tolerance, while maintaining a compact spectrum suitable for strong filtering requirement in ultradense wavelength-division-multiplexing applications. The SDS can be generated using commercially available components for 40-Gb/s applications and is cost efficient when compared with other 100-Gb/s electrical-time-division-multiplexing systems.

Serial OTDM for 100 Gbit-Ethernet applications

A novel transmitter for 100 Gbit-Ethernet applications is proposed, based on the serial cascade of two 50 Gbit/s inverse-return-to-zero (also known as dark soliton) transmitters based on Mach-Zehnder modulators. The proposed transmitter and demultiplexer system uses commercially available components optimised for 40 Gbit/s applications. A 2.9 dB penalty at 100 Gbit/s is obtained using a single-stage OTDM demultiplexer and a preamplified receiver.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

Cortical dynamics and synchronization related to multiple target consolidation under rapid-serial-visual-presentation conditions

The present report reviews behavioural, electroencephalographic, and especially magnetoencephalographic findings on the cortical mechanisms underlying attentional processes that separate targets from distractors and that ensure durable target representations for goal-directed action. A common way of investigation is to observe the system’s overt and covert behaviour when capacity limitations are reached. Here we focus on the aspect of temporally enhanced processing load, namely on performance deficits occurring under rapid-serial-visual-presentation (RSVP) conditions. The most prominent of these deficits is the so-called “attentional blink” (AB) effect. We first report MEG findings with respect to the time course of activation that shows modulations around 300 ms after target onset which reflect demands and success of target consolidation. Then, findings regarding long-range inter-area phase synchronization are reported that are hypothesized to mediate communication within the attentional network. Changes in synchronization reflect changes in the attentional demands of the task and are directly related to behavioural performance. Furthermore, enhanced vigilance of the system elicits systematically increased synchronization indices. A hypothetical framework is sketched out that aims at explaining limitations in multiple target consolidation under RSVP conditions.

Serial innovators in the UK:does size matter?

This article aims to shed light on the presence and importance of a significant number of small firms amongst serial innovators. Contrary to the common expectation in the innovative persistence literature, we posit that small serial innovators also benefit from operating within patterns of creative accumulation. However, it is in the quality of the technology and in the very nature of the knowledge accumulation process that the differences between small and large serial innovators can be found. Using a sample of 811 UK-based, highly innovative companies that patented over 66,000 inventions from 1990 to 2006, we find evidence in support of our theory. While large serial innovators experience higher innovation rates due to the scale of their innovation efforts, small serial innovators benefit more from processes of search depth characterized by the internal recombination of their previous knowledge. We find that important differences exist also in the very nature of the technologies being developed by small and large serial innovators.

Analysis and interpretation of serial position data

The representation of serial position in sequences is an important topic in a variety of cognitive areas including the domains of language, memory, and motor control. In the neuropsychological literature, serial position data have often been normalized across different lengths, and an improved procedure for this has recently been reported by Machtynger and Shallice (2009). Effects of length and a U-shaped normalized serial position curve have been criteria for identifying working memory deficits. We present simulations and analyses to illustrate some of the issues that arise when relating serial position data to specific theories. We show that critical distinctions are often difficult to make based on normalized data. We suggest that curves for different lengths are best presented in their raw form and that binomial regression can be used to answer specific questions about the effects of length, position, and linear or nonlinear shape that are critical to making theoretical distinctions. © 2010 Psychology Press.

Three essays on entrepreneurial entry, serial entrepreneurship, and labor turnover

This study explores two important aspects of entrepreneurship — liquidity constraints and serial entrepreneurs, with an additional analysis of occupational choice among wage workers. In the first essay, I revisit the question of whether entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints in business formation. The principle challenge is that wealth is correlated with unobserved ability, and adequate instruments are often difficult to identify. This paper uses the son's birth order as an instrument for household wealth. I exploit the data available in the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, and find evidence of liquidity constraints associated with self-employment in South Korea. The second essay develops and tests a model that explains entry into serial entrepreneurship and the performance of serial entrepreneurs as the result of selection on innate ability. The model supposes that agents establish businesses with imperfect information about their entrepreneurial ability and the profitability of business ideas. Agents continually observe signals with which they update their beliefs, and this process eventually determines their next business choice. Selection on ability induces a positive correlation between entrepreneurial experience (measured by previous business earnings and founding experience) and serial business formation, as well as its subsequent performance. The predictions in the model are tested using panel data from the NLSY79. The analysis permits a distinction to be made between selection on innate ability and learning by doing. Motivated by previous empirical findings that white-collar workers had higher turnover rates than blue-collar workers during firm expansion, the third essay further examines job turnover among workers with or without specific skills. I present a search-matching model, which predicts that when firm growth is driven by technological advance, workers whose skills are specific to the obsolete technology show a higher tendency to separate from their jobs. This hypothesis is tested with data from the PSID. I find supportive evidence that in the context of technological change, having an occupation requiring specific skills, such as computer specialists or engineers, increases the odds of job separation by nearly eight percent. ^

Serial evolutionary networks of within-patient HIV-1 sequences reveal patterns of evolution of X4 strains

Background The HIV virus is known for its ability to exploit numerous genetic and evolutionary mechanisms to ensure its proliferation, among them, high replication, mutation and recombination rates. Sliding MinPD, a recently introduced computational method [1], was used to investigate the patterns of evolution of serially-sampled HIV-1 sequence data from eight patients with a special focus on the emergence of X4 strains. Unlike other phylogenetic methods, Sliding MinPD combines distance-based inference with a nonparametric bootstrap procedure and automated recombination detection to reconstruct the evolutionary history of longitudinal sequence data. We present serial evolutionary networks as a longitudinal representation of the mutational pathways of a viral population in a within-host environment. The longitudinal representation of the evolutionary networks was complemented with charts of clinical markers to facilitate correlation analysis between pertinent clinical information and the evolutionary relationships. Results Analysis based on the predicted networks suggests the following:: significantly stronger recombination signals (p = 0.003) for the inferred ancestors of the X4 strains, recombination events between different lineages and recombination events between putative reservoir virus and those from a later population, an early star-like topology observed for four of the patients who died of AIDS. A significantly higher number of recombinants were predicted at sampling points that corresponded to peaks in the viral load levels (p = 0.0042). Conclusion Our results indicate that serial evolutionary networks of HIV sequences enable systematic statistical analysis of the implicit relations embedded in the topology of the structure and can greatly facilitate identification of patterns of evolution that can lead to specific hypotheses and new insights. The conclusions of applying our method to empirical HIV data support the conventional wisdom of the new generation HIV treatments, that in order to keep the virus in check, viral loads need to be suppressed to almost undetectable levels.

Logical simulation of communication subsystem for Universal Serial Bus (USB)

The primary purpose of this thesis was to design a logical simulation of a communication sub block to be used in the effective communication of digital data between the host and the peripheral devices. The module designed is a Serial interface engine in the Universal Serial Bus that effectively controls the flow of data for communication between the host and the peripheral devices with the emphasis on the study of timing and control signals, considering the practical aspects of them. In this study an attempt was made to realize data communication in the hardware using the Verilog Hardware Description language, which is supported by most popular logic synthesis tools. Various techniques like Cyclic Redundancy Checks, bit-stuffing and Non Return to Zero are implemented in the design to provide enhanced performance of the module.