Sequential designs for phase III clinical trials incorporating treatment selection

Most statistical methodology for phase III clinical trials focuses on the comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. An increasing desire to reduce the time before regulatory approval of a new drug is sought has led to development of two-stage or sequential designs for trials that combine the definitive analysis associated with phase III with the treatment selection element of a phase II study. In this paper we consider a trial in which the most promising of a number of experimental treatments is selected at the first interim analysis. This considerably reduces the computational load associated with the construction of stopping boundaries compared to the approach proposed by Follman, Proschan and Geller (Biometrics 1994; 50: 325-336). The computational requirement does not exceed that for the sequential comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. Existing methods are extended in two ways. First, the use of the efficient score as a test statistic makes the analysis of binary, normal or failure-time data, as well as adjustment for covariates or stratification straightforward. Second, the question of trial power is also considered, enabling the determination of sample size required to give specified power. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The sequential analysis of repeated binary responses: a score test for the case of three time points

In this paper a robust method is developed for the analysis of data consisting of repeated binary observations taken at up to three fixed time points on each subject. The primary objective is to compare outcomes at the last time point, using earlier observations to predict this for subjects with incomplete records. A score test is derived. The method is developed for application to sequential clinical trials, as at interim analyses there will be many incomplete records occurring in non-informative patterns. Motivation for the methodology comes from experience with clinical trials in stroke and head injury, and data from one such trial is used to illustrate the approach. Extensions to more than three time points and to allow for stratification are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sequential variations of phytoplankton growth and mortality in an NPZ model: a remote-sensing-based assessment

Radiometric data in the visible domain acquired by satellite remote sensing have proven to be powerful for monitoring the states of the ocean, both physical and biological. With the help of these data it is possible to understand certain variations in biological responses of marine phytoplankton on ecological time scales. Here, we implement a sequential data-assimilation technique to estimate from a conventional nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) model the time variations of observed and unobserved variables. In addition, we estimate the time evolution of two biological parameters, namely, the specific growth rate and specific mortality of phytoplankton. Our study demonstrates that: (i) the series of time-varying estimates of specific growth rate obtained by sequential data assimilation improves the fitting of the NPZ model to the satellite-derived time series: the model trajectories are closer to the observations than those obtained by implementing static values of the parameter; (ii) the estimates of unobserved variables, i.e., nutrient and zooplankton, obtained from an NPZ model by implementation of a pre-defined parameter evolution can be different from those obtained on applying the sequences of parameters estimated by assimilation; and (iii) the maximum estimated specific growth rate of phytoplankton in the study area is more sensitive to the sea-surface temperature than would be predicted by temperature-dependent functions reported previously. The overall results of the study are potentially useful for enhancing our understanding of the biological response of phytoplankton in a changing environment.

From Data Snore, to Data Score: Communicating Library Assessment Data Visually through Infographics

This presentation was offered as part of the CUNY Library Assessment Conference, Reinventing Libraries: Reinventing Assessment, held at the City University of New York in June 2014.

Nutritional assessment of hospitalized HIV-infected patients by the phase angle z-score measurement

Background: This study analyzed the phase-angle (PA) values of hospitalized HVI-infected patients by comparing them with those reported for a healthy population and investigated their relation with nutritional parameters.Methods: This is a cross-sectional study including 101 hospitalized patients diagnosed with HIV infection and evaluated by bioimpedance, anthropometry and biochemical tests. The phase angle values, weight loss percentage (%WL), body mass index (BMI), arm muscle circumference (AMC), tricipital skinfold (TSF), body fat percentage (%BF) and albumin were considered. In order to compare with values for the healthy population, the PA z-score of the patients under study was calculated. Spearman's correlation and the multiple linear regression model were used to identify nutritional parameters associated with the PA z-score.Results: The patients showed a mean PA z-score of -2.6 +/- 1.5, and only 6.6% of them with a positive value. The PA z-score values correlated with %WL (r = -0.51; p < 0.0001), albumin (r = 0.49; p < 0.0001), BMI (r = 0.58; p < 0.0001), AMC (r = 0.41; p < 0.0001), TSF (r = 0.47; p < 0.001) and %BF (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001). In multiple analysis %WL (p = 0.008), albumin (p = 0.01), AMC (p < 0.0001) and %BF (p = 0.0003) remained associated with the score.Conclusions: Low PA z-score values were observed, suggesting a worse clinical prognosis for the patients. The inclusion of the PA z-score as a nutritional indicator during care provision to HIV-infected patients is recommended. (Nutr Hosp. 2012;27:771-774) DOI:10.3305/nh.2012.27.3.5684

Assessment of inotropic and vasodilating effects of milrinone lactate in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and severe heart failure

OBJECTIVE: To assess the hemodynamic and vasodilating effects of milrinone lactate (ML) in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV heart failure. METHODS: Twenty patients with DCM and NYHA class III and IV heart failure were studied. The hemodynamic and vasodilating effects of ML, administered intravenously, were evaluated. The following variables were compared before and during drug infusion: cardiac output (CO) and cardiac index (CI); pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP); mean aortic pressure (MAP); mean pulmonary artery pressure (MPAP); mean right atrial pressure (MRAP); left ventricular systolic and end-diastolic pressures (LVSP and LVEDP, respectively); peak rate of left ventricular pressure rise (dP/dt); systemic vascular resistance (SVR); pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR); and heart rate (HR). RESULTS: All patients showed a significant improvement of the analysed parameters of cardiac performance with an increase of CO and CI; a significant improvement in myocardial contractility (dP/dt) and reduction of the LVEDP; PCWP; PAP; MAP; MRAP; SVR; PVR. Were observed no significant increase in HR occurred. CONCLUSION: Milrinone lactate is an inotropic dilating drug that, when administered intravenously, has beneficial effects on cardiac performance and myocardial contractility. It also promotes reduction of SVR and PVR in patients with DCM and NYHA class III and IV of heart failure.

Reliability assessment of energy limited systems using sequential montecarlo simulation

This paper explains why the reliability assessment of energy limited systems requires more detailed models for primary generating resources availability, internal and external generating dispatch and customer demand than the ones commonly used for large power systems and presents a methodology based on the full sequential Montecarlo simulation technique with AC power flow for their long term reliability assessment which can properly include these detailed models. By means of a real example, it is shown how the simplified modeling traditionally used for large power systems leads to pessimistic predictions if it is applied to an energy limited system and also that it cannot predict all the load point adequacy problems. © 2006 IEEE.

Poult intestinal organ culture for propagation of Turkey coronavirus and assessment of host-virus interactions

Infection of young poults with turkey coronavirus (TCoV) produces a syndrome characterized by acute enteritis, diarrhea, anorexia, ruffled feathers, decreased body weight gain and uneven flock growth. The objective of this study was to standardize an intestinal organ culture (IOC) in order to assess host-virus interaction related to apoptosis. For this purpose the Brazilian strain (TCoV/Brazil/2006 with GenBank accession number FJ188401), was used for infection. Infected IOC cells had mitochondrial dysfunction and initial nuclear activation with MTT value of 90.7 (± 2.4) and apoptotic factor 2.21 (± 2.1), considered statistically different from uninfected IOC cells (p > 0.05). The kinetics of TCoV antigens and viral RNA was directly correlated to annexin-V, caspases- 2 and -3, p53, BCl-2 antigens at 24, 72 and 96 h post-infection (p.i.). Morphological and biochemical features of apoptosis, such as in situ nuclear fragmentation (TUNEL and annexin-V) and DNA ladder formation were also detected in infected cells at all assayed p.i. intervals. Moreover, different from other coronaviruses, the expression of both effective caspase-2 and - 3 and p53 antigens were considered lower. However, at all p.i., the BCl-2 antigens were expressed quantitatively and qualitatively as viral antigen measured by immunofluorescence microscopy analysis. Because the diagnosis of TCoV infection is only performed by infecting embryonated poult eggs, the pathological characteri tics related to host-virus interaction remain unclear. This is the first report on apoptosis of TCoV infected IOC, and reveals that it may be useful immunological method to assess virus pathogenesis.

Preanesthetic assessment data do not influence the time for tracheal intubation with Airtraq (TM) video laryngoscope in obese patients

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Assessment of candidemia-attributable mortality in critically ill patients using propensity score matching analysis

[EN] Introduction: Candidemia in critically ill patients is usually a severe and life-threatening condition with a high crude mortality. Very few studies have focused on the impact of candidemia on ICU patient outcome and attributable mortality still remains controversial. This study was carried out to determine the attributable mortality of ICU-acquired candidemia in critically ill patients using propensity score matching analysis. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted of all consecutive non-neutropenic adult patients admitted for at least seven days to 36 ICUs in Spain, France, and Argentina between April 2006 and June 2007. The probability of developing candidemia was estimated using a multivariate logistic regression model. Each patient with ICU-acquired candidemia was matched with two control patients with the nearest available Mahalanobis metric matching within the calipers defined by the propensity score. Standardized differences tests (SDT) for each variable before and after matching were calculated. Attributable mortality was determined by a modified Poisson regression model adjusted by those variables that still presented certain misalignments defined as a SDT > 10%. Results: Thirty-eight candidemias were diagnosed in 1,107 patients (34.3 episodes/1,000 ICU patients). Patients with and without candidemia had an ICU crude mortality of 52.6% versus 20.6% (P < 0.001) and a crude hospital mortality of 55.3% versus 29.6% (P = 0.01), respectively. In the propensity matched analysis, the corresponding figures were 51.4% versus 37.1% (P = 0.222) and 54.3% versus 50% (P = 0.680). After controlling residual confusion by the Poisson regression model, the relative risk (RR) of ICU- and hospital-attributable mortality from candidemia was RR 1.298 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.98) and RR 1.096 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.69), respectively. Conclusions: ICU-acquired candidemia in critically ill patients is not associated with an increase in either ICU or hospital mortality.

A novel marker for heart failure: Cross sectional area assessment in a large vein by conductance catheter.

The present study investigates the feasibility of a new application able to check the heart failure status in a patient through the estimation of the venous distension. In this way it would be possible to follow up patients, avoiding invasive or expensive exams such as cardiac catheterization and echocardiography. Moreover, the devices would also be able to diagnose the decline of the disease, in order to allow a new adaptation to therapy, and vice versa to check the improvement in the patient’s conditions after the CRT device implant. This thesis is essentially divided into three parts: an analytical model was used to obtain an estimation of the error committed for the calculation of the CSA and to understand how the accuracy and sensitivity depend on the different configurations of the electrodes and the catheter position inside the vein; secondly, an in-vitro experiment was carried out in order to verify the practical feasibility for these kinds of measurements, in a very simplified model; in the end, several animal experiments were done to test the in-vivo practicability of the proposed method. The obtained results showed the feasibility of this approach. In fact, the error committed in the estimation of CSA, during the animal experiments, can be considered acceptable (CSAerror_max ≈ -14%). Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the conductance catheter allows assessing, not only the vein CSA, but also the breathing of the animal.

Value of the SYNTAX score for risk assessment in the all-comers population of the randomized multicenter LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) for major adverse cardiac events in the all-comers population of the LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial. BACKGROUND: The SXscore has been shown to be an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with multivessel disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS: The SXscore was prospectively collected in 1,397 of the 1,707 patients enrolled in the LEADERS trial (patients after surgical revascularization were excluded). Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at 1-year follow-up, according to 1 of 3 SXscore tertiles. RESULTS: The 1,397 patients were divided into tertiles based on the SXscore in the following fashion: SXscorescore>8 and score>16 (SXhigh) (n=461). At 1-year follow-up, there was a significantly lower number of patients with major cardiac event-free survival in the highest tertile of SXscore (SXlow=92.2%, SXmid=91.1%, and SXhigh=84.6%; p<0.001). Death occurred in 1.5% of SXlow patients, 2.1% of SXmid patients, and 5.6% of SXhigh patients (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 3.01; p=0.002). The myocardial infarction rate tended to be higher in the SXhigh group. Target vessel revascularization was 11.3% in the SXhigh group compared with 6.3% and 7.8% in the SXlow and SXmid groups, respectively (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.75; p=0.006). Composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target vessel revascularization was 7.8%, 8.9%, and 15.4% in the SXlow, SXmid, and SXhigh groups, respectively (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.81; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore, when applied to an all-comers patient population treated with drug-eluting stents, may allow prospective risk stratification of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. (LEADERS Trial Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating; NCT00389220).