988 resultados para Semi-competing risks
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INTRODUCTION There is a large range in the reported prevalence of end plate lesions (EPLs), sometimes referred to as Schmorl's nodes in the general population (3.8-76%). One possible reason for this large range is the differences in definitions used by authors. Previous research has suggested that EPLs may potentially be a primary disturbance of growth plates that leads to the onset of scoliosis. The aim of this study was to develop a technique to measure the size, prevalence and location of EPLs on Computed Tomography (CT) images of scoliosis patients in a consistent manner. METHODS A detection algorithm was developed and applied to measure EPLs for five adolescent females with idiopathic scoliosis (average age 15.1 years, average major Cobb 60°). In this algorithm, the EPL definition was based on the lesion depth, the distance from the edge of the vertebral body and the gradient of the lesion edge. Existing low-dose, CT scans of the patients' spines were segmented semi-automatically to extract 3D vertebral endplate morphology. Manual sectioning of any attachments between posterior elements of adjacent vertebrae and, if necessary, endplates was carried out before the automatic algorithm was used to determine the presence and position of EPLs. RESULTS EPLs were identified in 15 of the 170 (8.8%) endplates analysed with an average depth of 3.1mm. 73% of the EPLs were seen in the lumbar spines (11/15). A sensitivity study demonstrated that the algorithm was most sensitive to changes in the minimum gradient required at the lesion edge. CONCLUSION An imaging analysis technique for consistent measurement of the prevalence, location and size of EPLs on CT images has been developed. Although the technique was tested on scoliosis patients, it can be used to analyse other populations without observer errors in EPL definitions.
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AIMS: To examine changes in illicit drug consumption between peak holiday season (23 December-3 January) in Australia and a control period two months later in a coastal urban area, an inland semi-rural area and an island populated predominantly by vacationers during holidays. DESIGN: Analysis of representative daily composite wastewater samples collected from the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area. SETTING: Three wastewater treatment plants. PARTICIPANTS: Wastewater treatment plants serviced approximately 350, 000 persons in the urban area, 120,000 in the semi-rural area and 1100-2400 on the island. MEASUREMENTS: Drug residues were analysed using liquid chromatography coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer. Per capita drug consumption was estimated. Changes in drug use were quantified using Hedges' g. FINDINGS: During the holidays, cannabis consumption in the semi-rural area declined (g = -2.8) as did methamphetamine (-0.8), whereas cocaine (+1.5) and ecstasy (+1.6) use increased. In the urban area, consumption of all drugs increased during holidays (cannabis +1.6, cocaine +1.2, ecstasy +0.8 and methamphetamine +0.3). In the vacation area, methamphetamine (+0.7), ecstasy (+0.7) and cocaine (+1.1) use increased, but cannabis (-0.5) use decreased during holiday periods. CONCLUSIONS: While the peak holiday season in Australia is perceived as a period of increased drug use, this is not uniform across all drugs and areas. Substantial declines in drug use in the semi-rural area contrasted with substantial increases in urban and vacation areas. Per capita drug consumption in the vacation area was equivalent to that in the urban area, implying that these locations merit particular attention for drug use monitoring and harm minimisation measures.
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Introduction and Aims: Holiday periods are potentially a time for increased substance use as social events and private parties are more common. Data on community illicit drug consumption during holiday periods are limited. Besides existing methods for determining drug use, such as population surveys, one emerging method is to measure illicit drugs and/or their metabolites in wastewater samples. This study examined the change in consumption of cannabis, methamphetamine, cocaine and 3,4- methylenedioxymethamphetamine in three different types of areas (an inland semi-rural area, a coastal urban area and a vacation island) with respect to holiday times. Design and Methods: Samples were collected at the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area during a key annual holiday (i.e. the summer holiday including Christmas and New Year) and control period. Illicit drug residues in the daily composited samples were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Results: Drug use varied substantially among the three areas within each monitoring period as well as between the holiday and control period within each area. Use consistently increased and peaked over New Year particularly for cocaine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine whereas cannabis and methamphetamine were relatively less subjected to holiday times in all the areas. Discussion and Conclusions: Wastewater sampling and analysis provides higher spatio-temporal resolution than national surveys and supplements drug epidemiology studies originating primary in metropolitan locations. Such data is essential for policy makers to plan potential intervention strategies associated with these illicit substances in regional areas and other settings besides urban areas in the future.
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Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.
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This paper investigates several competing procedures for computing the prices of vanilla European options, such as puts, calls and binaries, in which the underlying model has a characteristic function that is known in semi-closed form. The algorithms investigated here are the half-range Fourier cosine series, the half-range Fourier sine series and the full-range Fourier series. Their performance is assessed in simulation experiments in which an analytical solution is available and also for a simple affine model of stochastic volatility in which there is no closed-form solution. The results suggest that the half-range sine series approximation is the least effective of the three proposed algorithms. It is rather more difficult to distinguish between the performance of the halfrange cosine series and the full-range Fourier series. However there are two clear differences. First, when the interval over which the density is approximated is relatively large, the full-range Fourier series is at least as good as the half-range Fourier cosine series, and outperforms the latter in pricing out-of-the-money call options, in particular with maturities of three months or less. Second, the computational time required by the half-range Fourier cosine series is uniformly longer than that required by the full-range Fourier series for an interval of fixed length. Taken together,these two conclusions make a case for pricing options using a full-range range Fourier series as opposed to a half-range Fourier cosine series if a large number of options are to be priced in as short a time as possible.
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A plane strain elastic interaction analysis of a strip footing resting on a reinforced soil bed has been made by using a combined analytical and finite element method (FEM). In this approach the stiffness matrix for the footing has been obtained using the FEM, For the reinforced soil bed (halfplane) the stiffness matrix has been obtained using an analytical solution. For the latter, the reinforced zone has been idealised as (i) an equivalent orthotropic infinite strip (composite approach) and (ii) a multilayered system (discrete approach). In the analysis, the interface between the strip footing and reinforced halfplane has been assumed as (i) frictionless and (ii) fully bonded. The contact pressure distribution and the settlement reduction have been given for different depths of footing and scheme of reinforcement in soil. The load-deformation behaviour of the reinforced soil obtained using the above modelling has been compared with some available analytical and model test results. The equivalent orthotropic approach proposed in this paper is easy to program and is shown to predict the reinforcing effects reasonably well.
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Document clustering is one of the prominent methods for mining important information from the vast amount of data available on the web. However, document clustering generally suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Providentially in high dimensional space, data points tend to be more concentrated in some areas of clusters. We take advantage of this phenomenon by introducing a novel concept of dynamic cluster representation named as loci. Clusters’ loci are efficiently calculated using documents’ ranking scores generated from a search engine. We propose a fast loci-based semi-supervised document clustering algorithm that uses clusters’ loci instead of conventional centroids for assigning documents to clusters. Empirical analysis on real-world datasets shows that the proposed method produces cluster solutions with promising quality and is substantially faster than several benchmarked centroid-based semi-supervised document clustering methods.
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We present measurements of the rheology of suspensions of rigid spheres in a semi-dilute polymer solution from experiments of steady and oscillatory shear. For a given value of the shear rate gamma, addition of particles enhances the viscosity and the first normal stress difference but decreases the magnitude of the second normal stress difference. The viscosity eta exhibits a power law variation in gamma for a range of gamma that grows with phi. The first normal stress N-1 is positive and its value grows with phi; it exhibits a clear power law variation for the entire range of gamma that was studied. The second normal stress difference N-2 is negative for the pure polymer solution and much smaller in magnitude than N-1; on addition of particles, its magnitude further decreases, and it appears to change sign at large phi. The behavior of N-1 and N-2 is at odds with the findings of recent studies on particle-loaded dilute polymer solutions and polymer melts. The small-amplitude oscillatory shear experiments show the linear viscoelastic properties, G(') and G('), increasing with phi at a given value of the angular frequency omega. The dynamic viscosity of the suspension differs substantially from its steady shear viscosity, and the difference increases as gamma, omega -> 0.
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Purpose In response to the threat that drink drivers pose to themselves and others, drink driving programs form an important part of a suite of countermeasures used in Australia and internationally. Unlike New Zealand/Aotearoa, United States and Canada that have programs catering for their First Peoples, all Australian programs are designed for the general driver population. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that contribute to Indigenous drink driving in order to inform appropriate recommendations related to developing a community-based program for Indigenous communities. Broader drivers licensing policy recommendations are also discussed. Methods A sample of 73 Indigenous people from Queensland and in New South Wales with one or more drink driving convictions completed a semi-structured interview in respect of the to their drink driving behaviour. Participants were asked to disclose information regarding their drink driving history, and alcohol and drug use. If participants self-reported no longer drink driving, they were probed about what factors had assisted them to avoid further offending. Results Key themes which emerged to maintain drink driving include motivations to drink and drive, and belief in the ability to manage the associated risks. Factors that appeared to support others from avoiding further offending include re-connecting with culture and family support. Conclusions and Implications A range of recommendations regarding delivery and content of a program for regional and remote communities as well as other policy implications are discussed.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the financial barriers to the supply of affordable apartments in Australia and examine whether demand aggregation and ‘deliberative development’ (self-build) can form a new affordable housing ‘structure of provision’. Design/methodology/approach Market design, an offshoot of game theory, is used to analyse the existing apartment development model, with ‘deliberative development’ proposed as an innovative alternative. Semi-structured interviews with residential development financiers are used to evaluate whether deliberative development could obtain the requisite development finance. Findings Our investigation into the financial barriers of a deliberative development model suggest that while there are hurdles, these can be addressed if key risks in the exchange process can be mitigated. Hence, affordability can be enhanced by ‘deliberative development’ replacing the existing speculative development model. Research implications Market design is a new innovative theoretical approach to understanding the supply of housing, offering practical solutions to affordable apartment supply in Australia. Originality/value This research identifies financial barriers to the supply of affordable apartments; introduces theoretical understandings gained from market design as an innovative solution; provides evidence that a new structure of building provision based on ‘deliberative development’ could become a key means of achieving more affordable and better designed apartments.
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Minimising catches of non-target animals in a trawl fishery reduces the impact on a marine community and may help to sustain the fishery resource in the long term. Hence the desirability for trawls that minimise impacts on non-target species while maintaining catches of target species. This study resulted from a need to further develop easily handled, semi-pelagic style trawls for Australia's Northern Fish Trawl Fishery. In November 1993 we compared catches from three differently rigged versions of a demersal wing trawl: one fished in a standard demersal configuration with its footrope on the sea bed, and two fished semi-pelagically, with their footropes raised to either 0.4-0.5 or 0.8-0.9 m above the sea bed. At two sites in the northeast Gulf of Carpentaria, each trawl type was used on the same combination of sites, grids within sites and times of day. Catches of the main target species (Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus) by the three trawl types were not significantly different. However, the mean catches of both these species and of other commercially important snappers, were highest in the semi-pelagic trawl raised 0.4-0.5 m above the sea bed. This increase could be due to a larger trawl spread or to the whole rig fishing higher in the water column. Of the 107 species of fishes analysed, 61 were caught in greater abundance in the demersal trawl. Seven species were caught more effectively in the semi-pelagic trawl with the footrope 0.4-0.5 m above the substrate; none was caught most effectively with the footrope set at 0.8-0.9 m. Epibenthic byproduct species (squid and Thenus orientalis), fish bycatch, sponges and other epibenthic invertebrates were also caught in lower numbers in the semi-pelagic trawls. The semi-pelagic trawls convincingly caught less (in both numbers and biomass) of the unwanted species which are normally discarded. Semi-pelagic fish trawls of the types tested would be suitable for Australia's Northern Fish Trawl Fishery and probably other demersal trawl fisheries that would benefit from the conservation of non-target epibenthic communities.
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Micropolar fluid flow over a semi-infinite flat plate has been described by using the parabolic co-ordinates and the method of series truncation in order to study the flow for low to large Reynolds numbers. These co-ordinates permit to study the flow regime at the leading edge. Numerical results have been presented for different Reynolds numbers. Results show a reduction in skin friction.
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A strong world demand and current firm prices for goat meat provides opportunities for some wool/beef production enterprises in western Queensland to increase farm viability through diversification. In particular, there is rising interest in the use of Boer goats to improve productive performance of the Australian feral goat. Pastoral graziers have noted the high prolificacy of feral goats grazed in semi-arid areas, but there is no information on the breeding ability of feral does mated to Boer bucks. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.