Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

SEASONAL MICROHABITAT SELECTION BY TERRESTRIAL RODENTS IN AN OLD-GROWTH ATLANTIC FOREST

We tested the hypothesis that microhabitat variables, abundance of terrestrial rodents, and microhabitat selection patterns of terrestrial rodents vary between the cool-dry and warm-wet season in the Atlantic forest of Brazil. We selected variables associated with ecological factors potentially important to terrestrial rodents (physical structure of litter and woody debris, and arthropod availability) and established 25 small, independent sampling units covering 36 ha of a homogenous, mature Atlantic forest patch. Litter humidity and height, amount of small woody debris, arthropod availability, and terrestrial rodent abundance increased, whereas the quantity of large woody debris decreased in the warm-wet season. Greater spatial segregation among terrestrial rodents also was observed in this season, especially between morphologically similar species. The distribution of 3 of the 4 most common terrestrial rodents was influenced by microhabitat variables in at least I of the seasons, and these species also differed in their pattern of microhabitat selection between seasons. In general, the amount of small woody debris and litter humidity were more important for the microscale distribution of terrestrial rodents in the cool-dry season, whereas in the mild warm-wet season species distributions were associated with food availability or were not clearly influenced by the measured variables. The patterns of microhabitat selection by 3 common terrestrial rodents, which were associated with features that characterize old-growth forest, may be responsible for their vulnerability to forest fragmentation.

The origin of the asymmetry in the irradiation distribution at high latitudes

The possibility of using solar energy during winter depends on the available solar radiation and on the geometry of the receiving surface. For high latitudes, the annual distribution of the available radiation is characterized by high asymmetry with a large amount of solar radiation from high altitude angles during the summer and a small amount of direct radiation from small altitude angles during the winter. This article deals with the origin of the difference between available solar radiation during summer and winter at high latitudes. Factors like the tilt of the earth’s axis, the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit, absorption and scattering of radiation in the atmosphere and seasonal changes in the weather conditions are discussed. Numerical examples of how these factors contribute to the reduction of the winter radiation compared to the summer radiation on surfaces with different orientation in Stockholm, latitude 59.4°N, are given. It is shown that the influence of the atmosphere and seasonal changes in the climate, and not pure earth-sun geometry, are the main reasons why it is hard to utilize solar energy at high latitudes during the winter.

The latitude dependent irradiation distribution in Europe and its implication for the design of stationary concentrators

When a stationary solar concentrator is designed, the spatial distribution of the available irradiation is of vital interest. An irradiation distribution based only on solar geometry will look similar at different sites. The only difference is that the distribution of the incident irradiation is shifted to lower solar altitudes when latitude is increased. However, real irradiation distribution will show strong asymmetry at high latitude sites, since the winter irradiation is reduced by absorption and scattering in the atmosphere, and by seasonal changes in the climate. The reduced winter irradiation at high latitudes implies that the available annual radiation is concentrated to a narrower angular interval. This means that the degree of concentration that is possible increases with latitude.In the paper examples of irradiation distribution from different sites in Europe from latitude 38°N to 65°N are shown. The origin of the reduced winter irradiation with increased latitude is discussed, and numerical examples on the performance of different types of stationary concentrators for different latitudes are given.

Evaluation of a high temperature solar thermal seasonal borehole storage

A solar thermal system with seasonal borehole storage for heating of a residential area in Anneberg, Sweden, approximately 10 km north of Stockholm, has been in operation since late 2002. Originally, the project was part of the EU THERMIE project “Large-scale Solar Heating Systems for Housing Developments” (REB/0061/97) and was the first solar heating plant in Europe with borehole storage in rock not utilizing a heat pump. Earlier evaluations of the system show lower performance than the preliminary simulation study, with residents complaining of a high use of electricity for domestic hot water (DHW) preparation and auxiliary heating. One explanation mentioned in the earlier evaluations is that the borehole storage had not yet reached “steady state” temperatures at the time of evaluation. Many years have passed since then and this paper presents results from a new evaluation. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the current performance of the system based on several key figures, as well as on system function based on available measurement data. The analysis show that though the borehole storage now has reached a quasi-steady state and operates as intended, the auxiliary electricity consumption is much higher than the original design values largely due to high losses in the distribution network, higher heat loads as well as lower solar gains.

Testing Seasonal Unit Roots in Data at Any Frequency, an HEGY approach

This paper generalizes the HEGY-type test to detect seasonal unit roots in data at any frequency, based on the seasonal unit root tests in univariate time series by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We introduce the seasonal unit roots at first, and then derive the mechanism of the HEGY-type test for data with any frequency. Thereafter we provide the asymptotic distributions of our test statistics when different test regressions are employed. We find that the F-statistics for testing conjugation unit roots have the same asymptotic distributions. Then we compute the finite-sample and asymptotic critical values for daily and hourly data by a Monte Carlo method. The power and size properties of our test for hourly data is investigated, and we find that including lag augmentations in auxiliary regression without lag elimination have the smallest size distortion and tests with seasonal dummies included in auxiliary regression have more power than the tests without seasonal dummies. At last we apply the our test to hourly wind power production data in Sweden and shows there are no seasonal unit roots in the series.

Longitudinal distribution and seasonality of macroalgae in a subtropical stream impacted by organic pollution

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Water balance and locomotor performance in three species of neotropical toads that differ in geographical distribution

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ecological distribution and reproductive period of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Anomura, Diogenidae) on the northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil

The present study aimed to determine the ecological distribution of Loxopagurus loxochelis as a function of selected environmental factors, as well as its reproductive period based on the combined analysis of the presence of ovigerous females and the development of the gonad. The collections were carried out monthly from January to December 2000 in the region of Ubatuba (SP), using a fishing boat equipped with two double rig nets, in isobaths of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 m, at which depths samples of sediment and water were collected. The cephalothoracic shield length and sex of the animals were determined; the abdomen was dissected to verify gonad development stages. A total of 334 individuals was obtained ( 196 males, 48 ovigerous females and 90 non-ovigerous females) with sizes varying from 3.0 to 8.6 mm (5.7 +/- 1.0 mm). A greater abundance of L. loxochelis (95.2%) was observed at depths of 20 and 25 m. These sites mainly revealed a substratum stable with a very fine sand fraction, which facilitates the habit of embedding shown by this hermit. With regard to gonadal analysis, it was possible to classify four gonad development stages for each sex: immature, rudimentary, developing and developed. It was observed that in the winter months about 71% of the females had gonads either developing or developed and 67% were ovigerous. Therefore, the winter period can be considered the peak of reproduction for this species, characterizing a typical seasonal-continuous reproduction.

Annual, seasonal and spatial variation of abundance of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris (Decapoda : Penaeoidea) in south-eastern Brazil

The influence of several environmental factors oil the abundance and spatial-temporal distribution of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris were investigated from January 1998 to December 1999 in the Ubatuba region of São Paulo State, Brazil. Collections were performed monthly in the bays of Ubatumirim (UBM), Ubatuba (UBA) and Mar Virado (MV). Six sampling transects were estabilshed in each bay, four were parallel to the shore line, and two were next to the rocky shores. A commercial shrimp fishing boat equipped with two 'double-rig' nets was used. A total of 11,503 individuals was collected, including 1633 from UBM, 6344 from UBA and 3526 from MV the majority of the captured specimens came from the deeper areas (15 to 20 m) with high salinity (34 to 36 ppt). The highest abundance of A. longinaris in Ubatuba bay was recorded in areas where fine and very fine sand comprised more than 70% of the sediment. Moreover, the abundance of A. longinaris followed a seasonal trend, being higher during the summer, when intrusions of cold South Atlantic Coastal Waters (SACW) are frequent. Thus, type of sediment, temperature and salinity are determinant factors in the distribution of A. longinaris in the studied region.

Phosphate distribution in the sediments along a cascade of reservoirs - (Paranapanema River, SE, Brazil)

Total phosphorus concentrations in the sediment of a cascade of 8 reservoirs located in the Paranapanema River (SE, Brazil) were analysed during two consecutive seasonal periods (2000 and 200 1). The reservoirs of Jurumirim, Chavantes, Salto Grande, Canoas 11, Canoas 1, Capivara, Taquarucu and Rosana were built during the last five decades with the purpose of hydroelectric generation. The sampling points were distributed along a 700 km of river stretch in 19 stations distributed in the river-reservoirs zones and main tributaries as well as in 5 stations representing the adjacent wetlands. The nutrient concentration was determined in samples from surface layers of sediment. Temporal and spatial changes were observed for both years. Three different areas could be identified along the river, considering not only Tot-P variations but also others physical and chemical characteristics such as organic matter concentration, nitrogen concentration of sediment and 02, pH, conductivity and Eh measured in the bottom layer of the water column. Higher values of Tot-P were found in the middle and lower region of the Paranapanema basin (maximum value of 1.96 mg g(-1) in Tibagi River in October/2001). Agricultural practices and cattle raising are the main external sources of nutrient in these regions. Superficial or sub-superficial watershed drainage and tributaries entrances are important nutrient contributors, leading to an increasing accumulation of nutrient in the sediment. This process seems to be especially important in the middle region of the Paranapanema Valley, were the values of Tot-P were higher comparing to the other areas.

Abundance and distribution of juvenile pink shrimps Farfantepenaeus spp. in a mangrove estuary and adjacent bay on the northern shore of São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Controlling factors of benthic macroinvertebrates distribution in a small tropical pond, lateral to the Paranapanema River (São Paulo, Brazil).

The aim of the present study was to examine the benthic fauna in a marginal pond lateral to the Paranapanema River and to identify the main controlling factors of its distribution. Considering the small size of the lacustrine ecosystem, we expected that seasonal variations of the benthic community attributes are more important than spatial variations; Methods: Two samplings, one in March and another in August, were carried out at nine sites in the pond. Sediment samples were obtained through a Van Veen grab for invertebrate sorting, granulometric analysis, and for quantification of organic matter in sediment. Other abiotic factors were measured, such as water transparency, dissolved oxygen, pH, electric conductivity, temperature, and depth of sediment sampling sites. Regarding the comparative analysis at spatial scale, no significant variations in density of the benthic invertebrate community were found. Results: In relation to the studied abiotic factors, only depth presented significant differences among sampling sites; All the measured environmental parameters presented significant differences among sampling months, except depth and the physical and chemical characteristics of the sediment. The abundance of Chaoboridae and Chironomidae was the unique attribute with a significant difference in comparing the two months. A higher abundance of taxa occurred in August, especially for Oligochaeta, Nematoda, Chaoboridae, and Chironomidae; Conclusions: Because of the low structural complexity of the studied pond, we concluded that the changes in benthic macroinvertebrate community attributes were mainly due to seasonal effects.

Spatio-temporal segregation and size distribution of fish assemblages as related to non-native species occurrence in the middle rio Doce Valley, MG, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of agricultural biomass burning on aerosol size distribution and dry deposition in southeastern Brazil

The size distributed composition of ambient aerosols is used to explore seasonal differences in particle chemistry and to show that dry deposition fluxes of soluble species, including important plant nutrients, increase during periods of biomass (sugar cane trash) burning in São Paulo State, Brazil. Measurements were made at a single site centrally located in the State's sugar cane growing region but away from the immediate vicinity of burns, so that the air sampled was representative of the regional background. Calculation of ion equivalent balances showed that during burning periods smaller particles (Aitken and accumulation modes) were more acidic, containing higher concentrations of SO(4)(2-), oxalate, NO(3)(-), HCOO(-), CH(3)COO(-), and Cl(-), but insufficient NH(4)(+) and K(+) to achieve neutrality. Larger particles showed an anion deficit due to the presence of unmeasured ions and comprised resuspended dusts modified by accumulation of nitrate, chloride, and organic anions. Increases of resuspended particles during the burning season were attributed to release of earlier deposits from the surfaces of burning vegetation as well as increased vehicle movement on unsurfaced roads. During winter months the relative contribution of combined emissions from road transport and industry diminished due to increased emissions from biomass combustion and other activities specifically associated with the harvest period. Positive increments in annual particulate dry deposition fluxes due to higher fluxes during the sugar cane harvest were 44.3% (NH(4)(+)), 42.1 % (K(+)), 31.8% (Mg(2+)), 30.4% (HCOO(-)), 12.8% (Cl(-)), 6.6% (CH(3)COO(-)), 5.2% (Ca(2+)), 3.8% (SO(4)(2-)), and 2.3% (NO(3)(-)). Na(+) and oxalate fluxes were seasonally invariant. Annual aerosol dry deposition fluxes (kg ha(-1)) were 0.5 (Na(+)), 0.25 (NH(4)(+)), 0.39 (K(+)), 0.51 (Mg(2+)), 3.19 (Ca(2+)), 1.34 (Cl(-)), 4.47 (NO(3)(-)), 3.59 (SO(4)(2-)), 0.58 (oxalate), 0.71 (HCOO(-)), and 1.38 (CH(3)COO(-)). Contributions of this mechanism to combined aerosol dry deposition and precipitation scavenging (inorganic species, excluding gaseous dry deposition) were 31% (Na(+)), 8% (NH(4)(+)), 26% (K(+)), 63% (Mg(2+)), 66% (Ca(2+)), 32% (Cl(-)), 33% (NO(3)(-)), and 36% (SO(4)(2-)).