Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

What do brain network interactions tell about cognitive processes? How to seek causality?

Optimal adjustment of brain networks allows the biased processing of information in response to the demand of environments and is therefore prerequisite for adaptive behaviour. It is widely shown that a biased state of networks is associated with a particular cognitive process. However, those associations were identified by backward categorization of trials and cannot provide a causal association with cognitive processes. This problem still remains a big obstacle to advance the state of our field in particular human cognitive neuroscience. In my talk, I will present two approaches to address the causal relationships between brain network interactions and behaviour. Firstly, we combined connectivity analysis of fMRI data and a machine leaning method to predict inter-individual differences of behaviour and responsiveness to environmental demands. The connectivity-based classification approach outperforms local activation-based classification analysis, suggesting that interactions in brain networks carry information of instantaneous cognitive processes. Secondly, we have recently established a brand new method combining transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS), transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), and EEG. We use the method to measure signal transmission between brain areas while introducing extrinsic oscillatory brain activity and to study causal association between oscillatory activity and behaviour. We show that phase-matched oscillatory activity creates the phase-dependent modulation of signal transmission between brain areas, while phase-shifted oscillatory activity blunts the phase-dependent modulation. The results suggest that phase coherence between brain areas plays a cardinal role in signal transmission in the brain networks. In sum, I argue that causal approaches will provide more concreate backbones to cognitive neuroscience.

Shallow Dialogue Processing Using Machine Learning Algorithms (or not)

This paper presents a shallow dialogue analysis model, aimed at human-human dialogues in the context of staff or business meetings. Four components of the model are defined, and several machine learning techniques are used to extract features from dialogue transcripts: maximum entropy classifiers for dialogue acts, latent semantic analysis for topic segmentation, or decision tree classifiers for discourse markers. A rule-based approach is proposed for solving cross-modal references to meeting documents. The methods are trained and evaluated thanks to a common data set and annotation format. The integration of the components into an automated shallow dialogue parser opens the way to multimodal meeting processing and retrieval applications.

Physical oceanography in the Western Bransfield Strait and Gerlache Strait during Austral summer 1995/96

n the framework of the FRUELA project, two oceanographic surveys were conducted by R/V Hespérides in the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, western basin of the Bransfield Strait and Gerlache Strait area during December 1995 and January 1996. The main hydrographic structures of the study domain were the Southern Boundary of the ACC and the Bransfield Front. The characteristics and zonation of local water masses are discussed in terms of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nutrient and inorganic carbon concentrations. Concentration intervals for water mass labelling, on the basis of chemical parameters in addition to the common theta/S-based classification, are defined. Silicate seems to be a very good discriminator for local water masses.

Desing and Validation of a Light Inference System to Support Embedded Context Reasoning

Embedded context management in resource-constrained devices (e.g. mobile phones, autonomous sensors or smart objects) imposes special requirements in terms of lightness for data modelling and reasoning. In this paper, we explore the state-of-the-art on data representation and reasoning tools for embedded mobile reasoning and propose a light inference system (LIS) aiming at simplifying embedded inference processes offering a set of functionalities to avoid redundancy in context management operations. The system is part of a service-oriented mobile software framework, conceived to facilitate the creation of context-aware applications—it decouples sensor data acquisition and context processing from the application logic. LIS, composed of several modules, encapsulates existing lightweight tools for ontology data management and rule-based reasoning, and it is ready to run on Java-enabled handheld devices. Data management and reasoning processes are designed to handle a general ontology that enables communication among framework components. Both the applications running on top of the framework and the framework components themselves can configure the rule and query sets in order to retrieve the information they need from LIS. In order to test LIS features in a real application scenario, an ‘Activity Monitor’ has been designed and implemented: a personal health-persuasive application that provides feedback on the user’s lifestyle, combining data from physical and virtual sensors. In this case of use, LIS is used to timely evaluate the user’s activity level, to decide on the convenience of triggering notifications and to determine the best interface or channel to deliver these context-aware alerts.d

Evaluating a Speech Communication System for deaf people

This paper describes the development of an Advanced Speech Communication System for Deaf People and its field evaluation in a real application domain: the renewal of Driver’s License. The system is composed of two modules. The first one is a Spanish into Spanish Sign Language (LSE: Lengua de Signos Española) translation module made up of a speech recognizer, a natural language translator (for converting a word sequence into a sequence of signs), and a 3D avatar animation module (for playing back the signs). The second module is a Spoken Spanish generator from sign-writing composed of a visual interface (for specifying a sequence of signs), a language translator (for generating the sequence of words in Spanish), and finally, a text to speech converter. For language translation, the system integrates three technologies: an example-based strategy, a rule-based translation method and a statistical translator. This paper also includes a detailed description of the evaluation carried out in the Local Traffic Office in the city of Toledo (Spain) involving real government employees and deaf people. This evaluation includes objective measurements from the system and subjective information from questionnaires. Finally, the paper reports an analysis of the main problems and a discussion about possible solutions.

Automatic Adaptation of Airport Surface Surveillance to Sensor Quality

This paper describes a novel method to enhance current airport surveillance systems used in Advanced Surveillance Monitoring Guidance and Control Systems (A-SMGCS). The proposed method allows for the automatic calibration of measurement models and enhanced detection of nonideal situations, increasing surveillance products integrity. It is based on the definition of a set of observables from the surveillance processing chain and a rule based expert system aimed to change the data processing methods

Efficient local unfolding with ancestor stacks

The most successful unfolding rules used nowadays in the partial evaluation of logic programs are based on well quasi orders (wqo) applied over (covering) ancestors, i.e., a subsequence of the atoms selected during a derivation. Ancestor (sub)sequences are used to increase the specialization power of unfolding while still guaranteeing termination and also to reduce the number of atoms for which the wqo has to be checked. Unfortunately, maintaining the structure of the ancestor relation during unfolding introduces significant overhead. We propose an efficient, practical local unfolding rule based on the notion of covering ancestors which can be used in combination with a wqo and allows a stack-based implementation without losing any opportunities for specialization. Using our technique, certain non-leftmost unfoldings are allowed as long as local unfolding is performed, i.e., we cover depth-first strategies. To deal with practical programs, we propose assertion-based techniques which allow our approach to treat programs that include (Prolog) built-ins and external predicates in a very extensible manner, for the case of leftmost unfolding. Finally, we report on our mplementation of these techniques embedded in a practical partial evaluator, which shows that our techniques, in addition to dealing with practical programs, are also significantly more efficient in time and somewhat more efficient in memory than traditional tree-based implementations. To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).

Efficient local unfolding with ancestor stacks for full prolog

The integration of powerful partial evaluation methods into practical compilers for logic programs is still far from reality. This is related both to 1) efficiency issues and to 2) the complications of dealing with practical programs. Regarding efnciency, the most successful unfolding rules used nowadays are based on structural orders applied over (covering) ancestors, i.e., a subsequence of the atoms selected during a derivation. Unfortunately, maintaining the structure of the ancestor relation during unfolding introduces significant overhead. We propose an efficient, practical local unfolding rule based on the notion of covering ancestors which can be used in combination with any structural order and allows a stack-based implementation without losing any opportunities for specialization. Regarding the second issue, we propose assertion-based techniques which allow our approach to deal with real programs that include (Prolog) built-ins and external predicates in a very extensible manner. Finally, we report on our implementation of these techniques in a practical partial evaluator, embedded in a state of the art compiler which uses global analysis extensively (the Ciao compiler and, specifically, its preprocessor CiaoPP). The performance analysis of the resulting system shows that our techniques, in addition to dealing with practical programs, are also significantly more efficient in time and somewhat more efficient in memory than traditional tree-based implementations.

An overview of the ciao system

Ciao is a logic-based, multi-paradigm programming system. One of its most distinguishing features is that it supports a large number of semantic and syntactic language features which can be selectively activated or deactivated for each program module. As a result, a module can be written in, for example, ISO-Prolog plus constraints and higher order, while another can be a puré logic module with a different control rule such as iterative deepening and/or tabling, and perhaps using constructive negation. A powerful and modular extensión mechanism allows user-level design and implementation of such features and sub-languages. Another distinguishing feature of Ciao is its powerful assertion language, which allows expressing many kinds of program properties (ranging from, e.g., moded types to resource consumption), as well as tests and documentation. The compiler is capable of statically ñnding violations of these properties or verifying that programs comply with them, and issuing certiñcates of this compliance. The compiler also performs many types of optimizations, including automatic parallelization. It offers very competitive performance, while retaining the flexibility and interactive development of a dynamic language. We will present a hands-on overview of the system, through small examples which emphasize the novel aspects and the motivations which lie behind Ciao's design and implementation.

Design, development and field evaluation of a Spanish into sign language translation system

This paper describes the design, development and field evaluation of a machine translation system from Spanish to Spanish Sign Language (LSE: Lengua de Signos Española). The developed system focuses on helping Deaf people when they want to renew their Driver’s License. The system is made up of a speech recognizer (for decoding the spoken utterance into a word sequence), a natural language translator (for converting a word sequence into a sequence of signs belonging to the sign language), and a 3D avatar animation module (for playing back the signs). For the natural language translator, three technological approaches have been implemented and evaluated: an example-based strategy, a rule-based translation method and a statistical translator. For the final version, the implemented language translator combines all the alternatives into a hierarchical structure. This paper includes a detailed description of the field evaluation. This evaluation was carried out in the Local Traffic Office in Toledo involving real government employees and Deaf people. The evaluation includes objective measurements from the system and subjective information from questionnaires. The paper details the main problems found and a discussion on how to solve them (some of them specific for LSE).

Design and Validation of a Light Inference System to Support Embedded Context Reasoning

Embedded context management in resource-constrained devices (e.g. mobile phones, autonomous sensors or smart objects) imposes special requirements in terms of lightness for data modelling and reasoning. In this paper, we explore the state-of-the-art on data representation and reasoning tools for embedded mobile reasoning and propose a light inference system (LIS) aiming at simplifying embedded inference processes offering a set of functionalities to avoid redundancy in context management operations. The system is part of a service-oriented mobile software framework, conceived to facilitate the creation of context-aware applications?it decouples sensor data acquisition and context processing from the application logic. LIS, composed of several modules, encapsulates existing lightweight tools for ontology data management and rule-based reasoning, and it is ready to run on Java-enabled handheld devices. Data management and reasoning processes are designed to handle a general ontology that enables communication among framework components. Both the applications running on top of the framework and the framework components themselves can configure the rule and query sets in order to retrieve the information they need from LIS. In order to test LIS features in a real application scenario, an ?Activity Monitor? has been designed and implemented: a personal health-persuasive application that provides feedback on the user?s lifestyle, combining data from physical and virtual sensors. In this case of use, LIS is used to timely evaluate the user?s activity level, to decide on the convenience of triggering notifications and to determine the best interface or channel to deliver these context-aware alerts.

DAEDALUS at RepLab 2014: Detecting RepTrak reputation dimensions on tweets

This paper describes our participation at the RepLab 2014 reputation dimensions scenario. Our idea was to evaluate the best combination strategy of a machine learning classifier with a rule-based algorithm based on logical expressions of terms. Results show that our baseline experiment using just Naive Bayes Multinomial with a term vector model representation of the tweet text is ranked second among runs from all participants in terms of accuracy.

Asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in highly dependable systems

Abstract We consider a wide class of models that includes the highly reliable Markovian systems (HRMS) often used to represent the evolution of multi-component systems in reliability settings. Repair times and component lifetimes are random variables that follow a general distribution, and the repair service adopts a priority repair rule based on system failure risk. Since crude simulation has proved to be inefficient for highly-dependable systems, the RESTART method is used for the estimation of steady-state unavailability and other reliability measures. In this method, a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of a rare event (e.g., a system failure) is higher. The main difficulty involved in applying this method is finding a suitable function, called the importance function, to define the regions. In this paper we introduce an importance function which, for unbalanced systems, represents a great improvement over the importance function used in previous papers. We also demonstrate the asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in these models. Several examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the new approach, and probabilities up to the order of 10-42 are accurately estimated with little computational effort.

Mejora postpradial de un controlador basado en reglas

La Diabetes mellitus es una enfermedad caracterizada por la insuficiente o nula producción de insulina por parte del páncreas o la reducida sensibilidad del organismo a esta hormona, que ayuda a que la glucosa llegue a los tejidos y al sistema nervioso para suministrar energía. La Diabetes tiene una mayor prevalencia en los países desarrollados debido a múltiples factores, entre ellos la obesidad, la vida sedentaria, y disfunciones en el sistema endocrino relacionadas con el páncreas. La Diabetes Tipo 1 es una enfermedad crónica e incurable, en la que son destruidas las células beta del páncreas, que producen la insulina, haciéndose necesaria la administración de insulina de forma exógena para controlar los niveles de glucosa en sangre. El paciente debe seguir una terapia con insulina administrada por vía subcutánea, que debe estar adaptada a sus necesidades metabólicas y a sus hábitos de vida. Esta terapia intenta imitar el perfil insulínico de un páncreas sano. La tecnología actual permite abordar el desarrollo del denominado “páncreas endocrino artificial” (PEA), que aportaría precisión, eficacia y seguridad en la aplicación de las terapias con insulina y permitiría una mayor independencia de los pacientes frente a su enfermedad, que en la actualidad están sujetos a una constante toma de decisiones. El PEA consta de un sensor continuo de glucosa, una bomba de infusión de insulina y un algoritmo de control, que calcula la insulina a infusionar utilizando los niveles de glucosa del paciente como información principal. Este trabajo presenta una modificación en el método de control en lazo cerrado propuesto en un proyecto previo. El controlador del que se parte está compuesto por un controlador basal booleano y un controlador borroso postprandial basado en reglas borrosas heredadas del controlador basal. El controlador postprandial administra el 50% del bolo manual (calculado a partir de la cantidad de carbohidratos que el paciente va a consumir) en el instante del aviso de la ingesta y reparte el resto en instantes posteriores. El objetivo es conseguir una regulación óptima del nivel de glucosa en el periodo postprandial. Con el objetivo de reducir las hiperglucemias que se producen en el periodo postprandial se realiza un transporte de insulina, que es un adelanto de la insulina basal del periodo postprandial que se suministrará junto con un porcentaje variable del bolo manual. Este porcentaje estará relacionado con el estado metabólico del paciente previo a la ingesta. Además se modificará la base de conocimiento para adecuar el comportamiento del controlador al periodo postprandial. Este proyecto está enfocado en la mejora del controlador borroso postprandial previo, modificando dos aspectos: la inferencia del controlador postprandial y añadiendo una toma de decisiones automática sobre el % del bolo manual y el transporte. Se ha propuesto un controlador borroso con una nueva inferencia, que no hereda las características del controlado basal, y ha sido adaptado al periodo postprandial. Se ha añadido una inferencia borrosa que modifica la cantidad de insulina a administrar en el momento del aviso de ingesta y la cantidad de insulina basal a transportar del periodo postprandial al bolo manual. La validación del algoritmo se ha realizado mediante experimentos en simulación utilizando una población de diez pacientes sintéticos pertenecientes al Simulador de Padua/Virginia, evaluando los resultados con estadísticos para después compararlos con los obtenidos con el método de control anterior. Tras la evaluación de los resultados se puede concluir que el nuevo controlador postprandial, acompañado de la toma de decisiones automática, realiza un mejor control glucémico en el periodo postprandial, disminuyendo los niveles de las hiperglucemias. ABSTRACT. Diabetes mellitus is a disease characterized by the insufficient or null production of insulin from the pancreas or by a reduced sensitivity to this hormone, which helps glucose get to the tissues and the nervous system to provide energy. Diabetes has more prevalence in developed countries due to multiple factors, including obesity, sedentary lifestyle and endocrine dysfunctions related to the pancreas. Type 1 Diabetes is a chronic, incurable disease in which beta cells in the pancreas that produce insulin are destroyed, and exogenous insulin delivery is required to control blood glucose levels. The patient must follow a therapy with insulin administered by the subcutaneous route that should be adjusted to the metabolic needs and lifestyle of the patient. This therapy tries to imitate the insulin profile of a non-pathological pancreas. Current technology can adress the development of the so-called “endocrine artificial pancreas” (EAP) that would provide accuracy, efficacy and safety in the application of insulin therapies and will allow patients a higher level of independence from their disease. Patients are currently tied to constant decision making. The EAP consists of a continuous glucose sensor, an insulin infusion pump and a control algorithm that computes the insulin amount that has to be infused using the glucose as the main source of information. This work shows modifications to the control method in closed loop proposed in a previous project. The reference controller is composed by a boolean basal controller and a postprandial rule-based fuzzy controller which inherits the rules from the basal controller. The postprandial controller administrates 50% of the bolus (calculated from the amount of carbohydrates that the patient is going to ingest) in the moment of the intake warning, and distributes the remaining in later instants. The goal is to achieve an optimum regulation of the glucose level in the postprandial period. In order to reduce hyperglycemia in the postprandial period an insulin transport is carried out. It consists on a feedforward of the basal insulin from the postprandial period, which will be administered with a variable percentage of the manual bolus. This percentage would be linked with the metabolic state of the patient in moments previous to the intake. Furthermore, the knowledge base is going to be modified in order to fit the controller performance to the postprandial period. This project is focused on the improvement of the previous controller, modifying two aspects: the postprandial controller inference, and the automatic decision making on the percentage of the manual bolus and the transport. A fuzzy controller with a new inference has been proposed and has been adapted to the postprandial period. A fuzzy inference has been added, which modifies both the amount of manual bolus to administrate at the intake warning and the amount of basal insulin to transport to the prandial bolus. The algorithm assessment has been done through simulation experiments using a synthetic population of 10 patients in the UVA/PADOVA simulator, evaluating the results with statistical parameters for further comparison with those obtained with the previous control method. After comparing results it can be concluded that the new postprandial controller, combined with the automatic decision making, carries out a better glycemic control in the postprandial period, decreasing levels of hyperglycemia.